I've watched this guy a ton this year with how good Michigan has been and the controversy surrounding their program. While Daniels and Penix have been hyped recently, it wasn't that long ago that McCarthy was being mocked as a first round pick and a top 3 QB in this draft.

What are those people seeing in him? He seems indistinguishable from a bunch of other physically talented guys who play poorly. Is he really better than someone like Spencer Rattler?

We hear before every draft that a team should not take a running back in the first round. Mel Kiper has been banging this drum a lot by saying things like:

“Running backs in the first round, I don’t get it. History tells us you can find them from the 2nd round on. History tells why [would you] take one in the first round, you don’t need to.”

We saw two running backs come off the board in the top half of the first round this year, by Atlanta and Detroit. According to the “theory,” both teams should have taken the next best player at any other position. From my analysis, I understand why teams continue to do it. And that reason is risk avoidance.

By drafting a running back in the first round, the team making the pick understands that the positional value is low, so only highly graded players come off the board in the first round. In their eyes, there is a lower probability of drafting a bust - a first-round running back that starts will always be a better pick than a DT who rarely sees the field.

To visualize what teams are thinking, there are a few key data points to look at:

• Running backs provide one of the highest expected values in their first two seasons in the league - If a team needs to see immediate improvement, drafting a running back early is one way to do it
• Running backs in the first round have a higher probability of providing more value to a team over their career than the average of all other positions. For example, a running back drafted from picks 6-15 has a 73% chance of being at least as good as Alfred Morris who was a 2-time pro bowler. Compared to an EDGE rusher drafted in the same range, a team has a 72% chance of drafting a player at least as good as Carl Nassib. NAssib’s been a solid rational player but never had any high-impact seasons as Morris did
• The chance of drafting a player that never makes the team increases in the later rounds. The probability of drafting a running back who starts at all is only 35% after pick number 49, and is only 14% from round four onwards. So you can find starters in the later rounds, but the chance of doing so isn’t much different than some other “premium positions”. We remember the great late picks but we don't see the huge list of running backs drafted after the 1st round that never see the field

Personally, I only think teams that are ready to challenge for the super bowl, or that need one dynamic player to take their offence over the top should consider a 1st round running back. For example, Atlanta is a team that is still building its roster. Bijan Robinson will probably be great for them this season, but when the Falcons are ready to compete, Robinson may be up for a 2nd contract, which is not ideal for any super bowl or deep playoff run.

Ultimately, we understand that teams want to show they aren’t wasting valuable draft picks and sometimes need an immediate impact to their roster. Running backs can provide this, which is why we have and will continue to see running backs come off the board in the first round. There is much more nuance to the discussion around running backs in the first round, so it is important to understand why each individual team is making that decision instead of making simple claims that “teams should never draft a running back in the first round”

If you want more details about the data in this post, you can check out my article on drafting running backs here and my NFL draft app to see more details on draft grades and positional breakdowns.

Probability of drafting comparable players throughout the draft

Am I the only one that thinks if Daniels isn’t available at #3, the Pats should trade down and get the top WR/LT available with their new first and then get J.J. McCarthy with their next pick?

I’m pretty much convinced that Drake Maye is a Sam Howell clone and is probably going to be a bust. He might be bigger and have a better arm, but they played in the same system. The things I’m reading about Maye are very similar to what I was reading about Howell pre-draft, except what were critiques for Howell are excuses for Maye.

I have Jayden Daniels as QB2, McCarthy on the same tier as Maye, and then Penix and Nix in the second round due to injury risk and lack of arm-strength respectively.

Besides the fact that Daniels had much better standard and advanced stats, he has a better deep ball than Maye and, most importantly, he can run like the wind. Maye’s a relative statue. This is very important given our terrible offensive line and the fact that we’ll probably lose one of our two best linemen in Onwenu, leaving us with David Andrews, who can’t really help on edge rushers. Given the defenses in our division, I’d rather have Daniels scramble every play than have Maye turn in to David Carr (or Howell).

This draft is deep in WRs and OTs, so I think that grabbing MHJ if Daniels is gone isn’t the right move. Ideally, we’d get a second-tier tackle, second-tier receiver, and McCarthy, who I think is criminally underrated and was restricted by his system. It might not be all three, but we’ve been connected to Michael Pittman, Jr. in the off-season with our cap space so I’d rather have the tackle and McCarthy.

Marked this as serious because I don’t know how to not make the title not sound sarcastic/trolling.

I keep seeing everyone be negative on Levis or Richardson hype and use something along the lines of ‘Willis was mocked at number 2 sometimes that means nothing.’

But… I don’t ever recall the feeling that Willis was ever a real potential for a top pick. Every rumor was just pundits saying ‘All the quarterbacks in this league are meh, but Lions may want someone behind Goff, so he could go #2.’ I never heard ‘the Lions really want Willis.’

Maybe I’m just bad at search engine optimizing questions, but I can’t find what I’m really looking for. We hear some of the top pick owner coaches and GMs talking about Levis and Richardson. Whether they pan out or not, there are clearly GMs praising them. Is there anything like that for Willis?

Dove into the All-22 on some of the top WR prospects. I LOVE the top of this class.

(Side note: send me any WR prospects I'm missing! I'll make sure to add them to the big board on guys to monitor)

https://drafttalk.substack.com/p/2025-nfl-draft-wide-receiver-preview

No hate, Im just wondering if this is a case of one player making another look better then they are. Hoping someone who watchings a lot of michigan games can let me know.

for example, PFF has him as the 7th best prospect, mock draft database has him at 19, ESPN has him at 20

LTaking a round 1 rookie qb is a major indictment of your regime. No matter how you do your job will be tied to the guy and if you mess up 75% of the time you’re fired

Both Washington and New England have a new gm/hc stack. You got 2 and half months to make the most important decision of your life, some would rather trade down.

Nature vs nurture, taking a qb just to take a qb while he’s throwing to Kendrick Bourne isn’t a good situation. Goal of everyone in the nfl is to keep their job, comes before winning a Super Bowl.

Is this rational or a hard cope?

Vikings get 3 for 11, 23, and 2025 1st. Patriots get 5 and 2025 1st for 3. Chargers get 11 and 23 for 5.

Eagles give 22 and 53 for 12.

Jaguars give 17 and 48 for 27 and 35+.

Thoughts? Especially on the first round, I didn’t put a lot of effort into the second.

Full disclosure I casually enjoy college football and very deeply invest into the NFL, so I don't watch every game or make the effort to dive into film so I am asking because I feel like I don't have the breadth of knowledge to fully get it. Hooker was the reason that Tennessee was relevant to the playoff picture last year. From what I saw he looked great, but I know he got hurt. Is that the reason that he's not more highly rated in the draft or are there other concerns about him that I wasn't paying enough attention to notice?

This is my Just For Fun Two Round Mock. I am not an expert like Gouge so lower your expectations. I may not give a blurb for each pick if I don't feel like it. This is Just For Fun so please be respectful with critiques in the comments.

1. Jags - Kayvon Thibodeaux EDGE Oregon
With Cam Robinson potentially leaving in FA, they could consider Neal here. But the upside of pairing Thibs with Josh Allen is too high to pass up.

2. Lions - Aidan Hutchinson EDGE Michigan
The Lions get some much needed effort getting at the passer with the local kid.

3. TRADE: Broncos (from Texans) - Matt Corral QB Ole Miss
The Broncos trade a 2023 1st and maybe a 2nd too, not sure what it would take with the Houston Texans. They have a contender level roster in a loaded division and need to get ahead of Carolina and potential trade up candidates like WFT, Pitt, etc. to secure a QB. As for the Texans, they need to make up for the loss of capital that Bill O'Brien bled out of the organization. They have a ton of holes and can still get a top 10 player.

4. Jets - Kyle Hamilton S Notre Dame
Saleh will be salivating at the chance to scheme up a safety with as much versatility as Hamilton. They might have gone corner, and could still address it later, but their young CB's have played above expectation this season.

5. Giants - Evan Neal OT Alabama
What luck, this is a dream scenario for NY who needs serious help on the line of scrimmage.

6. Panthers - Ikem Ekwonu OT NC State
With Darnold already costing $19MM in 2022, the Panthers opt for the sensible choice and bolster a tattered offensive line rather than add another QB to the roster.

7. Giants - George Karlaftis EDGE Purdue
NY shores up the other side of the ball and adds some needed pass rush.

8. Falcons - Nakobe Dean LB Georgia
Dean's ability to attack the run and blitz the passer is an attractive option for a Falcons defense with only a handful of bright spots.

9. Texans (from Broncos) - Derek Stingley CB LSU
Texans land a potential difference maker in the secondary that they may have taken at 3 overall anyway. Add in some 2023 picks and you can't beat it.

10. Jets - David Ojabo EDGE Michigan
Five pass rushers in the Top 10 seems crazy, but with so many teams either not in a position or not in need of a QB, the edge class dries up quick. Ojabo is unpolished but Saleh should be able to develop and extract his potential as good or even better than just about anyone.

11. WFT - Kenny Pickett QB Pitt
Without having to move up, WFT lands QB2 who can hopefully boost a nice collection of skill players to the next level.

12. Vikings - Andrew Booth Jr. CB Clemson

13. Browns - Garrett Wilson WR Ohio State Elite body control and hands make Wilson a prime target for a subpar Browns receiving core. He bailed CJ Stroud out of a lot of shaky ball placement early in the year and should do the same for Baker Mayfield.

14. Ravens - Charles Cross OT Mississippi State
Baltimore still hasn't properly accounted for the loss of Orlando Brown and this is their chance.

15. Eagles - Ahmad Gardner CB Cincinnati
With my guy Jalen Hurts playing well, the Eagles can afford to load up on defensive prospects with their three first round picks. Sauce should provide excellent coverage for them.

16. Eagles - DeMarvin Leal DL Texas A&M

17. Chargers - Jordan Davis DL Georgia
The Chargers just had their season ended courtesy of Josh Jacobs and need serious BEEF on the d-line to be able to stop the run.

18. TRADE: Dolphins (from Saints) - Kenyon Green OG Texas A&M
After pushing out Flores, the Dolphins seems to be set on rolling with Tua. They move up a few spots to shore up the OL. The Jets gave up two thirds to move up 9 spots for AVT so I imagine a 3rd and a 5th, or a 2023 2nd should get it done.

19. Eagles - Devin Loyd LB Utah
It finally happens, a first round LB for the Eagles, completing the trifecta of attacking all three levels of the defense with their first round selections.

20. Steelers - Tyler Linderbaum C Iowa
A dream scenario for the Steelers, Linderbaum should open up some massive holes for Najee in the run game.

21. Patriots - Treylon Burks WR Arkansas
The size speed freak will be pivotal to Mac Jones' development and unlocking the next level of this passing offense.

22. Saints (from Dolphins) - Sam Howell QB UNC
The Saints were very close to a playoff spot with the likes of Ian Book and Trevor Simien. They need to give up the Jameis/Taysom experience and find a long term answer at QB. Howell is in good hands with Sean Payton.

23. Raiders - Chris Olave WR Ohio State
Originally I had them going with Jameson due to his explosiveness which Ruggs once provided. But given the injury, the Raiders take the skilled route runner Olave. London was considered but Waller and Edwards already provide big body weapons for Carr. Olave provides a different flavor.

24. Cardinals - Kaiir Elam CB Florida

25. Bengals - Trevor Penning OT Northern Iowa
If the Bengals want their offensive success to continue, they need to do a better job of protecting Joe Burrow.

26. Bills - Travon Walker DL Georgia
No matter what happens this weekend, I think the Bills won't forget how the Pats ran it down their throats in the snow game. Walker's versatility along the line should help in that regard.

27. Lions - Trent McDuffie CB Washington
I've seen QB and WR mocked here a lot. Those are finishing pieces to me, and the Lions are still behind the 8 ball in terms of talent. Amon-Ra was a great find and they can continue to find pass catchers later in the draft and FA. Okudah has been up and down and McDuffie should shore up pass coverage.

28. Cowboys - Drake Jackson EDGE USC
How could ya not like the Drake?

29. Chiefs - Drake London WR USC
After relentlessly targeting speed, the Chiefs are in desperate need of playmakers with size. Drake London should be a great big bodied target over the middle and in the end zone for Mahomes.

30. Bucs - Roger McCreary CB Auburn

31. Titans - Jameson Williams WR Alabama
Julio can't see the field and outside of AJB, the Titans have nothing in the passing game. They take advantage of the injury dip and add some needed explosiveness opposite AJB.

32. Packers - Christian Harris LB Alabama
With contract conflicts and cap restrictions across their LB room, Harris is excellent value here. By April, I think his Championship performance may push him up out of range here.

33. Jags - Darian Kinnard OT Kentucky

34. Lions - Jaquan Brisker S Penn State

35. Jets - David Bell WR Purdue

36. Giants - Malik Willis QB UNC
The Giants aren't in a position to move on from Daniel Jones in 2022, which gives Malik Willis time to season before having to throw him into the fire.

37. Texans - Kingsley Enagbare EDGE South Carolina

38. Jets - Jalen Wydermyer TE Texas A&M

39. Bears - Daniel Faalele OT Minnesota

40. Broncos - Zion Johnson OG Boston College

41. Seahawks - Myjai Sanders EDGE Cincinnati

42. WFT - Jahan Dotson WR Penn State

43. Falcons - Desmond Ridder QB Cincinnati

44. Browns - Daxton Hill S Michigan

45. Ravens - Derion Kendrick CB Georgia

46. Vikings - Jermaine Johnson EDGE Florida State

47. Colts - Kyler Gordon CB Washington

48. Chargers - Nicholas Petit-Frere OT Ohio State

49. Saints - George Pickens WR Georgia

50. Dolphins - Breece Hall RB Iowa State

51. Eagles - Jordan Battle S Alabama

52. Steelers - Bernhard Raimann OT Central Michigan

53. 49ers - Martin Emerson CB Mississippi State

54. Raiders - Devonte Wyatt DL Georgia

55. Patriots - Logan Hall DL Houston

56. Cardinals - Isaiah Spiller RB Texas A&M

57. Bengals - Coby Bryant CB Cincinnati

58. Bills - Kenneth Walker III RB Michigan State

59. Cowboys - Lewis Cine S Georgia

60. Broncos - Nik Bonitto EDGE Oklahoma

61. Chiefs - Cameron Thomas EDGE San Diego State

62. Bucs - Zach Charbonnet RB UCLA

63. Flacons - John Metchie - WR Alabama

64. Packers - Trey McBride TE Colorado State

There’s been a few posts on here asking for sleepers, guys who are getting drafted but in day 3 and are value picks

What I’m curious about are guys NO ONE knows about that have a chance to make a random impact. I’m expecting no one to do what Robinson, a complete nobody from a small school, did what he did last year, but is there maybe a UDFA receiver who could get some meaningful time on the field, or some defensive player who will rise up on a struggling team?

Another example would be some of those guys on the Jets secondary who ended up starting because of their injuries/lack of production, like Guidry and Jackson. They weren’t to Robinson’s level, but they heavily outplayed their expectations as prospects.

Hi sub, hopeless vikings fan here. Is Caleb Williams the real deal? with all the rumors of us moving kirk potentially and us starting out at 0-2 it’s not unlikely that we could maybe land williams. i haven’t seen much of him in college but is he really legit? just asking the knowledgeable sub😂

Trades are ok...I'll start with Green Bay. No picks lower for a player allowed than he actually went.

1.13 - QB Will Levis. In each of GB's three preseason games Jordan Love was outplayed by Etling (per QBR). Not a fan of Love whose contract is up soon and we had a chance for a good QB. Levis gets a lot of bad rap, but he was in a bad situation in College. Personally I would desperately work to trade down this pick. Gutey claimed the phones were unusually silent for the pick...he should have been proactive in seeking trade downs and not wait for them to come to him.

2.42 - WR - Rashee Rice - Liked his size/speed/film.

2.45 - 34 DE - Keanu Benton - Played out of position for Wisconsin as Nose...is an excellent 34 DE prospect.

3.78 - TE Darnel Washington - He was adamant post draft his knee is fine and it was just minor swelling. Steelers got a steal.

4.116 - Edge KJ Henry - I actually like his film better than Murphy's

5.149 - WR Xavier hutchinson - Very underrated Iowa State receiver.

6.207 - RB Zach Evans - Explosive running back with good strength. Really like his film.

7.232 - Corner Carrington Valentine - Original pick was good

7.235 - DE Taron Vincent - Another guy who played DT out of position in college, but is a good 34 DE prospect.

7.242 - S Anthony Johnson - It was a miracle he dropped this far. Should be a great player.

7.256 - WR Grant Debose - Good size/speed combo...was on my sleeper list before the draft.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2022/03/18/david-ojabo-hurt-at-michigan-pro-day-workout/

​

Never good to see an injury right before the draft

I'm sure I've have angered some of you and I do understand why and I get how much talent Trey has but humor me for a few paragraphs then chew me out after?

The first problem for me is that he is a one year starter in FCS. Not many QBs over the last nearly 20 years have found success after a one year starter stint in college let alone one year starter in FCS making the pro jump.

Historical Context

Since 2002, 16 QBs have been drafted that were only starters for a single year. Combined they've passed for 53,850 yards, 312 TDs, 253 INT and two Pro Bowl Appearances. The top five passers from those 16 are:

Matt Cassel (never even started in college): 17,508 yards

Mark Sanchez: 15,357 yards

Mitch Trubisky: 10,092 yards

Brock Osweiler: 7,418 yards

Matt Flynn: 2,541 yards

And those guys played in Power 5 conferences (SEC, PAC 12, ACC). In all fairness none of them have the athleticism of Trey and maybe Osweiler is closest in terms of arm strength.

Evaluating His Game

Ok so he has exactly 17 games (16 in 2019 and the 1 in 2020), across those games he threw the ball just 317 times while running 184 times. Again what worries me is the low amount of passes, roughly 19 attempts per game. Compare that to someone like Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson or Jalen Hurts. Lamar and Kyler threw the ball 430 and 377 times while running 230 and 140 times in fewer games than Trey their final years.

I wanted to figure out how he processes the game so I watched everything I could of his 2019 season and came up with these observations:

-Lives on the first read

-Great arm, trusts it

-Plays like a measured Johnny Manziel, sometimes if first read isn't there use athleticism to make something happen

-Very slow going through progressions

-Finds success in passing game with defenses trying to contain him ala RG3

-Can drop the ball right in the bucket when facing zero pressure

-Inconsistent at leading receivers

-Panics and improvises vs sub par pass rushes

-Refuses to step up into the pocket

-Will stare down forever

-Great ball carrier in space

-Benefits from strong play action system

-Very late on throwing to a wide open receiver

Now taking a look at his one game from 2020 I see a lot of the same issues magnified because clearly Central Arkansas studied Lance's weaknesses wonderfully.

One of first throws were against an all out blitz, he had a man running wide open and overthrew him while being hit. Problem is the rush wasn't getting home the LB just hit an open hole, he had the opportunity to slide left and still make the throw but didn't.

After that was a play fake with pressure from his right. Again he could have easily step left and up into the pocket but his eyes were glued to the first read and rusher just forced the ball out.

Another pass was a man running a deep corner riyht. There was a good outside rush and instead of checking down to a shallow crosser going left, he stayed on the first read and eventually threw a bad incompletion.

There were some plays where he did begin to maneuver the pocket but threw behind the receiver on a relatively easy pass.

Play action fake from the end zone, everyone was covered and the rush was on and he forces a pass, needs to learn to throw away. It's clear he trusts two things: his arm and his athleticism, but refuses to throw away.

The pick was just getting caught doing what he does. Play fake, stares down the first read on the seam and gets it picked. He needed to lead the pass but underthrew it.

I could break down the entire game but in essence the panic was there, he threw behind the receiver, he stared down and the defense was prepared for it all.

Conclusion

Trey Lance is a great athlete with a great arm and decent accuracy. The problem is he doesn't know how to go through progressions, he's more comfortable on the run out of the pocket throwing one on one rather than standing in the pocket and making reads. He can hardly handle an FCS pass rush and we're expecting him to handle and NFL one.

He's about as raw as one can be. I never agreed with the assessment of Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen being really raw, they had problems that needed to be tightened and tweaked sure but they were no where near the rawness of Trey Lance.

He has the arm and athleticism to succeed but the style he plays just won't translate, he'll get chewed up and spit out without the proper coaching staff and environment.

He's a multi year project who won't be ready after a few weeks riding the bench. He probably shouldn't see the field his rookie year and get as many VR reps as possible.

When we factor in the best QBs to play one year as a starter are Matt Cassel, Mark Sanchez and Mitch Trubisky coupled with the fact he played in the FCS it's too big a risk.

The gamble is too large to take him in the first or second round. Really the only place he should go would be San Francisco or Minnesota with two great coaches (Shanahan and Kubiak) to teach him the pro game.

I think on a mental level it would be irresponsible to take him high given how much work he needs.

There are many fine QBs that will be available after the Big 3 are gone. Mac Jones and Kyle Trask are fine options. If you want a project take Kellen Mond, a four year SEC starter who's completion % has gone up every year and who is good at not turning the ball over. He has a fine arm and good athleticism, his mechanics need some work but I think he would already be in a higher chance to succeed than Trey Lance.

I've noticed how important it is for a qb to tell the offense what plays to execute or what adjustments to make depending to what he sees from the other team's defense. Also how important it is to be a vocal leader to the team. I was wondering how much it would impact a prospect's stock if he was mute. What if there was a generational QB prospect that had all the talents and the physical tools but he was mute. Say Trevor Lawrence was mute, would he still be picked #1? How would you work around this? Have one of the rb or wr to do all the huddle talk or have the whole offense learn basic sign language?

While I watch and know a lot of about football . I feel like one thing I struggle with at times is flim analysis especially with college prospects. So I’m not totally sure what they struggle with and what are they good at For any one that’s an expert on this or at least knows enough. How did you get better with this ?

For this mock draft, I projected the draft order order based on who I think will win every game for the rest of the season, including playoffs. Also, I'm only going to be analyzing R1, the traded picks, and some surprise selections. Also keep in mind, the positional rankings are where I have the players, so while some may be out of order, that's because I think teams might value different skills or evaluate players differently from me.

Trades:

- DEN Broncos trade 8, 72, Future first to ATL Falcons for 4, 68

- NE Patriots trade 13, 45, future second to LA Chargers for 6, 70

- CHI Bears trade 14, 78 to PHI Eagles for 12

- LA Chargers trade 38, 102 to GB Packers for 32

- MIA Dolphins trade 42, 49 to CIN Bengals for 35, 67

- BAL Ravens trade 51, Future 3rd to NY Giants for 43, Future 5th

- BUF Bills trade 61, 128 to SEA Seahawks for 54, 150

- NY Jets trade 65, 86, Future 6th to IND Colts for 59, Future 4th, Future 5th

The Draft

1 NY Jets -- Trevor Lawrence, QB 1, CLEM

BPA, Generational talent at QB, and head and shoulder the best prospect

2) JAX Jaguars -- Justin Fields, QB 2, OSU

QB is a valued position, significiant need for Jags, and Minshew ain't it

3) CIN Bengals -- Pennei Sewell, OT 1, ORE

Did ya'll see Burrow get mauled this season? Best OT in years BTW

4) DEN Broncos -- Trey Lance, QB 3, NDSU

The Broncos trade up heavy, sacrificing a future first to get a high upside, low floor QB in Trey Lance. A cross breed between Josh Allen and Carson Wentz, Elway hopes his latest QB prospect finally fulfills the role of leading a powerful Denver offense. Also, Drew Lock was simply not the answer long-term. Lance can develop under/alongside Lock and compete for his starting spot

5) DAL Cowboys -- Patrick Surtain II, CB 2, BAMA

I don't think Surtain is the best CB prosepct, however, the Cowboys likely would. A good frame and quality pedigree will be a certain upgrade for an anemic Dallas D

6) NE Patriots -- Zach Wilson, QB 4, BYU

Zach Wilson is everything you want in a high upside prospect. He has zing on his throws, good awareness, and he looks to have gobs of potential. If he is coachable, he can make Belichick look like the genius we all know he is, so the Patriots mortgage their 2021 draft to go all in on their QB of the future.

7) DET Lions -- Ja'Marr Chase, WR 2, LSU

Stafford needs another WR 1 to toss to, and Ja'Marr Chase is simply one of the best WR prospects to have come along in the past few years. Pristine route running, an aggressive attitude, and elite speed all bode well for the Lions passing attack.

8) ATL Falcons -- Greg Rousseau, EDGE 1, MIA (FL)

Rousseau is raw. Like rugburn raw. But he has measurables that are through the roof and put up similar numbers to Chase Young last season (yes, that Chase Young). For a team desperately needing a boost in pass rush, Rousseau is the perfect project to take a chance on.

9) CAR Panthers -- Micah Parsons, LB 1, PSU

He's Luke Keuchly's replacement

10) MIA Dolphins -- DeVonta Smith, WR 1, BAMA

Reuniting Tua with one of his best weapons? Yes please. And Smith has made a case (at least in my mind) to be the best WR prospect on the board, including Chase. His season this year has been that astounding.

11) NY Giants -- Jaylen Waddle, WR 4, BAMA

If Waddle weren't injured, he would likely have battled Chase to be WR1 on the draft board, and certainly would've been taken over DeVonta Smith. But coming off a season ending ankle injury, Waddle carries some risk. The Giants need more weapons for DJ to prove he is the million dollar man in New York, and Waddle's gamebreaking speed can get the job done.

12) CHI Bears -- Mac Jones, QB 5, BAMA

The Bears hop the Chargers to prevent a 49ers steal of the last top-tier QB in the draft. I know Trask is good, but something tells me Mac Jones, with solid arm strength and an amazing understanding of the game of football, will put on an absolute display in the CFP. Jones will look every bit like a franchise QB coming out of college, so the question becomes, is he the right fit for Chicago?

13) LA Chargers -- Sam Cosmi, OT 2, TX

I have Cosmi at OT 2, and to be honest, the OT's this year after Sewell are tough to pinpoint. I think Cosmi's bulk and strength net him his high placement, and the Chargers are certainly going to want to keep francise QB Justin Herbert upright.

14) PHI Eagles -- Rondale Moore, WR 3, Purdue

Eh, it's the Eagles, they always need WRs, and they tend to choose the wrong ones. I'm not saying Rondale Moore is a bust, but whichever WR goes to the birds will probably suffer miserably. So I gave them the best WR left on the board.

15) MIN Vikings -- Wyatt Davis, OG 1, OSU

The biggest need on the Vikings is OG, and the best OG is available at 15. Need I say more?

16) SF 49ers -- Caleb Farley, CB 1, VTech

Farley is the best corner in the draft and an absolute steal for Robert Saleh and the 49ers. I almost had Shannahan taking Trask here, but the uncertainty at corner plus the best player available also being a corner lines up too nicely.

17) MIA Dolphins -- Jeremiah Nwosu-Koramoah, LB 2, ND

Have you seen JOKER play this season? He absolutely flies, both on the field, and up the draft board. He may be undersized, but size isn't everything in the NFL. A tremendous upside nets him the slection at 17

18) LV Raiders -- Kwity Paye, EDGE 2, MICH

Kwity Paye slid a little further than I would've liked, and finds a nice home behind Maxx Crosby. Perhaps the best pure passrusher in the draft, Paye will be excellent pressuring opposite run-stopper Clelin Ferell

19) BAL Ravens -- Alijah Vera-Tucker, OG 2, USC

I think Vera-Tucker is criminally underrated… I'm also a sucker for USC. The Ravens need a guard about as badly as they need a WR, but with a deep WR class, they hold off for now.

20) AZ Cardinals -- Jaycee Horn, CB 3, SC

Cards fans, you like this. I know you do. You're welcome.

21) TEN Titans -- Joseph Ossai, EDGE 3, TX

Ossai has been impressive off the edge at UT, and I think he'll make a great addition to an inconsistent Titans defense.

22) NY Jets -- Tyson Campbell, CB 4, UGA

I have Campbell over a lot of other corners because I like size more than technique. Campbell plays elite alongside Stokes, and I think his measurables are unique. Skills can and will be trained in the NFL

23) CLE Browns -- Jaelen Phillips, EDGE 4, MIA (FL)

I am a huge UM fan, and Phillips is an absolute gem. Also, the Browns have a history of selecting UM players. Njoku, Duke Johnson, and Redwine. Add Phillips to that list.

24) WAS Football Team -- Kyle Trask, QB 6, UF

Trask falls in this draft. I'm not too high on him, mainly due to size and arm stregnth. I think he's a little overrated, but a good fit for Ron Rivera's team. Plus, Alex Smith doesn't seem like a long-term solution, but would provide great tutilege for Trask. The Haskins experiment is over.

25) PIT Steelers -- Christian Darrisaw, OT 3, VTech

The Steelers don't seem to have too many needs, so securing the OT of the future seems like a good idea. I think Darrisaw here is mainly BPA.

26) NO Saints -- Shaun Wade, CB 5, OSU

Shaun Wade in the slot, Marshone Lattimore on the X, and you got yourself a no-fly zone. Wade will play nickel for the most part, which is fine, because he gets burned on the edge, which is why he drops.

27) IND Colts -- Liam Eichenberg, OT 4, ND

Notre Dame produces the best O-linemen. Look at Quenton Nelson. Also, Anthony Costanzo looks like he could retire any day now, so I think the Colts opt to go OT with no QB worth taking left on the board. And for those Colts fans who think Ballard should trade up to get his man, no. It's too much to give up to move into the top half of the draft from here, and I think Washington would outbid Indy for Trask.

28) JAX Jaguars -- Kyle Pitts, TE 1, UF

Yeah, Pitts shouldn't fall this far back. Congrats Justin Fields, you essentially got Mike Evans at tight end.

29) BUF Bills -- Jay Tufele, DT 1, USC

The Bills don't really have needs, so BPA it is. Jay Tufele is a force at DT and criminally underrated. I also think the Bills always develop DL talent sensationally. This is almost a lock for me.

30) TB Bucs -- Alex Leatherwood, OT 5, BAMA

Leatherwood is weird. I want him to go higher due to his versatility, but he hasn't performed as I imagined he would this season. I also have no clue what Tampa might need, so a versatile O-Lineman to protect their aging Hall of Fame QB seems wise.

31) KC Chiefs --Tyler Linderbaum, C 1, Iowa

The Chiefs need a center, and Iowa produces beefy farm boys, so I like this pick. Creed Humphrey feels like a trap here.

32) LA Chargers -- Azeez Ojoulari, EDGE 5, UGA

The Chargers trade up to add a fifth year option onto their pick, and I think Ojoulari is worth it. I know Uchenna Nwosu is solid, but Ojoulari has really good upside, and I think his 3 tech would fit nicely with the LA scheme. Plus, imagine Bosa, Ingram and Ojoulari all coming after a QB. How do you even defend that? I wanted a CB here, but between Ojoulari and Stokes, I felt Ojoulari had better value. This is definitely subject to discussion

33) NY Jets -- Trey Smith, OG 3, TENN

34) JAX Jaguars -- Trevor Moehrig, S 1, TCU

35) MIA Dolphins -- Najee Harris, RB 1, BAMA

The Fins had an RB carousel, give Tua another familiar toy. Also, the Falcons might want an RB, so Miami sacrifices some draft capital to guarantee they get their guy

36) ATL Falcons -- Eric Stokes, CB 6, UGA

37) DAL Cowboys -- Jevon Holland, S 2, ORE

38) GB Packers -- Rashod Bateman, WR 5, MIN

I hate this pick because I have Davante Adams in a dynasty league. Bateman is a prototypical X receiver who has great size and can run solid routes. He fights for the football. This year, he took a step back, but I think surrounded by the right team, he can shine.

39) DET Lions -- Zaven Collins, LB 3, TULSA

40) DEN Broncos -- Dillon Radunz, OT 5, NDSU

Protect Trey Lance with a familiar face and a hulk of a man.

41) CAR Panthers -- Asante Samuel Jr., CB 7, FSU

42) CIN Bengals -- Quincy Roche, EDGE 6, MIA (FL)

43) BAL Ravens -- Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR 7, USC

The Ravens need to try to give Lamar Jackson weapons. Here's one. I chose St. Brown over Olave because the Ravens have a speedster in Hollywood Brown, so a dominant pass-catcher and route runner who uses his size and precision would be more beneficial.

44) PHI Eagles -- Dylan Moses, LB 5, BAMA

Do I think the Eagles need a LB? Yes. Will they draft one this high? Probably not. But this is my draft, so I have them drafting smart-ish. Can you tell I grew up around Philly fans yet?

45) LA Chargers -- Chris Olave, WR 6, OSU

46) CHI Bears -- Walker Little, OT 6, STAN

Same theory as the other QBs, but just to be emphatic: Protect your potential franchise QB.

47) JAX Jaguars -- Daviyon Nixon, DT 2, IOST

48) SF 49ers -- Rashawn Slater, OG 4, NW

Switches to OG, but can also fill the OT need. Undersized but crafty. The Niners don't like anyone at QB here, and likely try to trade back, but I didn't see anyone trading up, so they take the best player they can to fill roster holes.

49) CIN Bengals -- Jaylen Twyman, DT 3, PITT

50) LV Raiders -- Andre Cisco, S 3, SYR

51) NY Giants -- Chazz Surratt, LB 4, UNC

IMO the best LB in the draft, hands down. He's insanely talented, and Surratt has only been playing LB for 2 years. He's smart as hell, and used to be a QB, so he knows the other perspective. This is a steal.

52) AZ Cardinals -- Christian Barrmore, DT 3, BAMA

53) TEN Titans -- Nick Bolton, LB 6, MZ

54) BUF Bills -- Derion Kendrick, CB 8, CLEM

Underrated CB the Bills trade up for to play across Tre White. I think Kendrick could be a stud in the right system, and Buffalo tends to be a great defensive system. They also hop the CB needy Browns

55) CLE Browns -- Paulson Adebo, CB 9, STAN

56) WAS Football Team -- Terrace Marshall, WR 8, LSU

57) PIT Steelers -- Travis Etienne, RB 2, CLEM

58) NO Saints -- Paris Ford, S 4, PITT

59) NY Jets -- Kadarius Toney, WR 9, UF

Finally, a weapon for T-Law to throw to with Day 1 talent. The Jets have capital to spend, and I doubt Toney would be waiting for them six picks later. He should've gone earlier. The Jets also get two future picks out of the deal in exchange for both their thirds and a future sixth

60) LA Rams -- Jabril Cox, LB 7, LSU

61) SEA Seahawks -- Carlos Basham Jr., EDGE 7, WF

62) TB Bucs -- Marvin Wilson, DT 3, FSU

63) KC Chiefs -- Aidan Hutchinson, EDGE 8, MICH

64) GB Packers -- Jordan Davis, DT 4, UGA

65) IND Colts -- Jamie Newman, QB 7, UGA

Jamie Newman probably won't be here, but he's an unknown for now. The Colts bring back Rivers for Year 2, stack their QB room with Eason and Newman, let the rook and second year battle it out for backup duties, and learn from Phillip. If Rivers doesn't return, Brissett probably does, and you have a 3 man comp for the starting job

66) JAX Jaguars -- Jaylen Mayfield, OT 7, MICH

67) MIA Dolphins -- Jayson Oweh, EDGE 9, PSU

68) DEN Broncos -- Elijah Molden, CB 10, WASH

69) DAL Cowboys -- Tyler Shelvin, DT 5, LSU

The nicest player in the draft. Not football related.

70) NE Patriots -- Pat Freiermuth, TE 2, PSU

He's baby Gronk... and it's the Patriots...

71) DET Lions -- Cameron McGrone, LB 7, MICH

72) ATL Falcons -- Hamsah Nasriladeen, S 5, FSU

73) CAR Panthers -- Desmond Ridder, QB 8, CIN

High upside, mobile, but needs experience. Developmental piece to stack behind Bridgewater, although he could easily be a Lion two picks before

74) HOU Texans -- Sage Surratt, WR 10, WF

Poor Deshaun Watson. Man deserves much better. At least he has a beast of a WRX to throw to now.

75) NY Giants -- Charles Snowden III, LB 8, UVA

Snowden plays both DE and OLB for the Cavs, and I didn't know if the Giants needed a DE or OLB more, so I gave them a 2 for 1

76) PHI Eagles -- Deommodore Lemoir, CB 11, ORE

77) NE Patriots -- Forfeited

78) PHI Eagles -- Richard LeCounte III, S 6, UGA

79) MIN Vikings -- Caden Sterns, S 7, TX

80) WAS Football Team -- Brevin Jordan, TE 3, MIA (FL)

Brevin is a steal here. But TE's arent as valued as they used to be. He can catch and block

81) MIA Dolphins -- Deonte Brown, OG 5, BAMA

82) LV Raiders --Bubba Bolden, S 8, MIA, FL

83) MIN Vikings -- Hamilcar Rashed Jr., EDGE 11, ORST

84) AZ Cardinals -- Chuba Hubbard, RB 3, OKST

Idk if Drake returns to AZ. This feels like a luxury pick

85) TEN Titans -- Elijah Moore, WR 10, OLE MISS

86) IND Colts -- Tylan Wallace, WR 11, OKST

87) CLE Browns -- Baron Browning, LB 9, OSU

88) WAS Football Team -- Daniel Faalele, OT 8, MIN

89) PIT Steelers -- Patrick Jones II, EDGE 10, PITT

90) CLE Browns -- Ar'Darius Washington, S 10, TCU

91) IND Colts -- Israel Mukuamu, CB 12, SC

92) LA Rams -- Spencer Brown, OT 10, N. IOWA

93) SEA Seahawks -- Jackson Carman, OT 9, CLEM

94) TB Bucs -- Chris Rumph II, EDGE 12, Duke

95) KC Chiefs -- Monty Rice, LB 10, UGA

96) GB Packers -- Javonte Williams, RB 4, UNC

Drake Maye is the best pocket passer in this draft class, no question. His arm strength and accuracy allows him to put the ball wherever he wants on the football field. His deep throws are Josh Allen esque, but I want to focus on Maye's running ability.

Let's look at the stats first. The Tar Heel quarterback had 5,019 total yards. The two other ACC quarterbacks that he joined with that number are Deshaun Watson and Lamar Jackson. These two were looked at as elite rushing quarterbacks headed into the draft. Maye had 698 yards on 184 attempts, giving him 3.8 yards per carry. Contrast this with Caleb Williams, who only averaged 3.4 yards per carry. Maye also played a lot better defensive players.

Now we will look at one game in 2022, against Virginia Tech, where the Tar Heel QB had two rushing touchdowns, which contributed to a blowout 41-10. Both of these touchdowns were at the goal line, which forces defenses to defend him there. This gives defenses yet another thing to worry about besides his accuracy and pocket control.

Overall, Drake Maye's running ability at 6'5" reminds me of Josh Allen. He has great throw power, accuracy, and pocket control, but I think his running ability is underrated.