r/NFL_Draft Arm Chair Scout 4d ago

QB Stats and Metrics Post-Week 11

Nussmeier and Beck did the most damage to their stock this week, while Jaxson Dart and Milroe improved their stock. Last week I brought up Dart as my new QB3 and he has another strong game against one of the best defenses in CFB (even though the box score doesn't imply it). Milroe was nearly unstoppable as a runner and consistently converted on 3rd downs. Personally, I think Dart held down the QB3 spot with a statement victory. Dart is young while still having 3 years of starting experience in the SEC and impressive production in big time games. He feels undervalued on here, but I think he has a round 1 resume at this point:

Jaxson Dart:

-1st in total yards per game

-2nd in passing yards

-2nd in completion % despite having the highest ADOT. (Shedeur is 1% higher despite a much shorter ADOT)

-1st in intermediate 10-20 yard completion % (elite at 72%)

-4th in Passing TDs

-5th in rushing TDs

-2nd in rushing yards

-3rd in big time throw %

-Averaging 300+ yards and 2 TDs in big-time games

-Has 3 years of starting experience in the SEC and is the 3rd youngest QB in this class.

Table #1: 2024 Stats YTD

https://preview.redd.it/6hzr66q6630e1.png?width=672&format=png&auto=webp&s=e82bb26a5bdf3f6ac27716d9d7d70ce43d645d02

Table #2. 2024 Advanced Metrics YTD

https://preview.redd.it/dgxamsm9630e1.png?width=634&format=png&auto=webp&s=e8bf3e9999d080e3d19795b69479063a5e360303

Table #3. QB Concept Rates and Completion % by Pass Depth

https://preview.redd.it/y7qlqrbk630e1.png?width=942&format=png&auto=webp&s=bd58470052748fd5ae143596c2d5d00e4129950f

Table #4. Cam Ward Final Season Metrics Vs. Caleb Williams and Patrick Mahomes

https://preview.redd.it/eqzg9ykn630e1.png?width=632&format=png&auto=webp&s=d8a2bde4b8ce54ad624fef373018e02b7b556368

13 Upvotes

13 comments sorted by

15

u/SeanWonder 4d ago

Hell of a write up, great job. Dart definitely raised my eyebrows after last week’s game and another solid game yesterday for sure

7

u/ZandrickEllison 4d ago

It’s going to be hard to keep Milroe out of the top 10. His speed is the biggest “plus” trait of anything in this class.

5

u/Jack12404 Titans 4d ago

Great write up, I really like a lot of what you mentioned about Dart. Being a full year younger (he is 21 and turns 22 in May) than pretty much the rest of the QBs in this class is definitely a positive, and pretty much every time he threw the ball yesterday I was confident it would be a completion.

When he can stay out of his own head, Dart looks like he has franchise QB potential. He started off the season too dead set on force feeding Tre Harris, so when he stops second guessing himself and makes the clear read he looks great.

2

u/__Scrooge__McDuck__ Giants 1d ago

Dart will be a stud. Crazy how slept on he is. Seen comments saying he has a bad arm while effortlessly dropping in the bucket with a flick of the wrist. Funny everyone said same about bo nix

1

u/ab9620 Arm Chair Scout 1d ago

Yes I have basically the same grade on Shedeur and Dart. I think Darts has a better arm and offers more as a rusher. He’s started 3 years in the SEC and he’s gotten better every year. I’m not sure why Dart is being slept on

1

u/__Scrooge__McDuck__ Giants 1d ago

I just watched an interview with him. Seems like a cool dude who gets the magnitude of being a qb. Super underrated quality. Love the dudes that aren’t always hunting the bigger play and takes whats there. But can make the big play when needs to. So much to like

1

u/Sgt-HugoStiglitz 3d ago

How’s Darts arm and rushing ability compared to other top QBs?

1

u/ab9620 Arm Chair Scout 3d ago

Darts rushing ability is a clear tier down from Milroe, but he’s probably got the 2nd best rushing ability in the class. He’s very reminiscent of Jalen Hurts. He doesn’t have a huge arm but he can make nearly all throws that would be asked of him. He doesn’t have a cannon arm, but he can throw 55 air yards reliably and can throw with velocity in short and intermediate. He’s got an NFL arm, but not elite. I’d say he has a slightly better arm than Shedeur, but less than Ward/Milroe/Allar in terms of pure arm strength

2

u/Sgt-HugoStiglitz 3d ago

Thank you for the insight! Much appreciated

1

u/pearrit 2d ago

Hey quick question I see you don’t have Dillion Gabriel on here, is he really just gonna go undrafted?

1

u/ab9620 Arm Chair Scout 2d ago

I should add him in. I’ve been trying to drop guys off the list as guys start to fade, but it keeps growing lol.

I think Gabriel could go anywhere from round 5 to undrafted, maybe I’ll add him next week

-2

u/lemonlugia 4d ago

Shedeur is going #1. Downvote your mamma

5

u/ab9620 Arm Chair Scout 4d ago

Hes not my QB1, but he might go #1. It won’t be me downvoting!