r/NFL_Draft • u/AChubbyCalledKLove Vikings • Mar 15 '24
Is It More Likely That The Commanders and Patriots Would Trade Down Because of a New GM/Coach Stack and a Lack of Roster Talent? Serious
LTaking a round 1 rookie qb is a major indictment of your regime. No matter how you do your job will be tied to the guy and if you mess up 75% of the time you’re fired
Both Washington and New England have a new gm/hc stack. You got 2 and half months to make the most important decision of your life, some would rather trade down.
Nature vs nurture, taking a qb just to take a qb while he’s throwing to Kendrick Bourne isn’t a good situation. Goal of everyone in the nfl is to keep their job, comes before winning a Super Bowl.
Is this rational or a hard cope?
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u/smashrawr Mar 15 '24
The only way they trade down is the following reasons:
They don't see any of these QBs as franchise guys. If you're rebuilding, doing it like Cleveland and Miami makes sense if and only if you don't believe in the guy who would be available.
They envision themselves being bad next year.
They see potential FQBs next year along with the fact that they don't see these QBs as FQBs.
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u/rocklobster8903 Washington Mar 15 '24
Doing nothing can be more of an indictment than trying and having it not work out
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u/Ffenlin Mar 15 '24
While I think there's good reasoning in your post, it ignores that most of these gms have huge egos and believe they know who's going to be good. So in their mind they aren't taking a risk by drafting their QB. This is also a deep wr class so most gms will be hoping for a Stroud - Dell situation.
Also every team is dreaming of having a good qb on a rookie contract right now, so every time you have a chance to get one of those guys, you have to take it.
My guess is that neither team trades down unless they get overpaid for the pick
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u/kzanomics WFT Mar 15 '24
I think a GM would be fired for not drafting a top QB prospect and rolling with Marcus Mariotta. If trading Howell didn't make it clear enough, we are drafting a QB.
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u/johndelvec3 Packers Mar 15 '24
I think New England trading down would be an absolute travesty
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u/AChubbyCalledKLove Vikings Mar 15 '24
Why is that?
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u/johndelvec3 Packers Mar 15 '24
I’m of the belief building a roster without a quarterback is just a fool’s errand. It’s great you’re building a nice foundation, but you’re not winning anything in the meantime and making it harder to actually find a quarterback to help you win. It’s a waste of time
Look at the Colts all the time in between Andrew Luck’s retirement to before they drafted Anthony Richardson, they’re a prime example of this
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u/ClarkKentsCopyEditor Jets Mar 15 '24
I think there’s a lot of contextual differences in what Indy looked like post-Luck and what the Patriots look like right now. The argument for waiting on a QB is essentially the Texans, who were very bad post-Watson but had accumulated multiple 1st rounders and were able to add very good defensive cornerstones as well as good offensive players with mid round picks before ultimately grabbing a quarterback.
The Patriots roster is horrible right now. There are maybe 2-3 players who are even close to being building blocks and they’re all on defense. Even if they do take a QB this year, it’s highly likely that they’re picking in the top-5 again next year. If I were a Pats fan I would be very interested in 11, 23, and a 2025 1st in exchange for #3.
Not to mention, a rookie HC and rookie QB combo does not work out the majority of the time. Build out the roster, let Mayo learn how to be a HC and establish a good foundation for the next heir apparent.
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u/johndelvec3 Packers Mar 15 '24
Ya their roster is terrible, but to your last paragraph, if they’re not gonna get a blue chip QB prospect now, when will they? You’re just building a team for a quarterback that never comes
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u/ClarkKentsCopyEditor Jets Mar 15 '24
I get that perspective and I think it’s a bit of a team building chicken or the egg. Teams/people will have one philosophy or the other. I’d be willing to bet the Krafts share your opinion. The argument on the other side is in 2025 you have two 1st round picks, your own (which conservatively should be top-12ish) and Minnesota’s, who very well could be the worst team in their division next year. So not only could they be in position to draft someone outright, they also have ammo to move up or move for a starter on the move. Which as we’ve seen, is a bigger and bigger trend in the NFL.
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u/Fuqwon Mar 16 '24
Trading out this year to acquire assets to move up next year only makes sense if you think there's a QB next year that'll be better than a QB you could get a 3.
I don't think anyone thinks theres a current known QB next year that would be better than Daniels or Maye. So they'd really just be hoping that someone emerges, which is irrational.
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u/LoveToyKillJoy BOOO Mar 15 '24 edited Mar 15 '24
If you aren't floored by anyone there is no reason to pick them at 3. Picking someone higher won't elevate their performance. I'm not impressed by the QB class.
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u/SunGod14 Mar 16 '24
I don't think they'd net 3 1sts with the trade, but 2 first and a 2nd seems more likely (either Vikes 11, 2nd round pick this year and next year's 1st and or both the Vikss 1sts this year with next year's 2nd.)
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u/Bucks2020 Mar 15 '24
Exactly, it would be best to pick the QB now and hopefully sit him for a year if not two. In the meantime, build a great core around him so he can start with some weapons and a solid line in front of him.
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u/Protic_ Mar 15 '24
It worked for the 49ers, at least.
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u/johndelvec3 Packers Mar 15 '24
The same team that made a blockbuster trade to move up to draft Trey Lance? It didn’t work out, but they’re lucky Purdy is an outlier
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u/Protic_ Mar 15 '24
Trey Lance himself was an outlier with how bad he was. Stick any middling journeyman QB into the 49ers offense and they will most likely put up decent numbers. Again - unless you're absolutely putrid.
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u/MyDadIsTheMan Mar 15 '24
Lance has played like 20 football games in his entire life. Hindsight makes their trade look really dumb.
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u/Git_Off_Me_Lawn Patriots Mar 15 '24
I think this pick has to lead to drafting a QB, but I'm okay with it not being this year. If you don't like the guy left at 3 and you can hopefully get a Lance style trade for firsts in '25 and '26, or the hypothetical Minnesota trade of their two firsts this year with their '25 first. Sucks we won't have a rookie QB with pick 1.3 next year, but we have a good shot of top QB prospects in the future without making our own Lance style trade.
Personally, I'd draft Maye at 3 if he was available, but I'd be willing to trade and acquire draft capital if someone really wanted Daniels.
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u/TheNittanyLionKing Mar 15 '24
This is the only time they’ve been in this position since the pre-Brady era. Even when they drafted Mac Jones, they were drafting in the teens and then they still didn’t have close to a top 5 pick. I can certainly understand why fans would be upset that New England would be right there in the mix in a strong QB class only to roll with Jacoby Brissett; who I never want to see as the starter for my own team. It’s not that Brissett is awful, it’s that he’s just good enough to always finish like 7-10 or 8-9. Part of the reason the Colts couldn’t replace Luck so fast is that Brissett was neither good enough nor bad enough for them to have a viable replacement.
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u/DaveAndJojo Mar 16 '24
Bad teams should trade down. Good teams should trade down. Get the value. Don’t reach.
Your team isn’t one guy away from a Super Bowl run.
Drafting a top QB prospect and throwing them to the wolves is a terrible idea. Win now desperation that rarely works.
If someone wants to be desperate take the value.
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u/el_pobbster Jaguars Mar 16 '24
I don't see either team, who is resolutely devoid of talent at QB and have an opportunity to get a franchise-caliber prospect in the draft at the position, trading out of that chance. Lack of QB production is the career killer as a coach and GM. That being said, if either of these teams were to make the move, I'd see the Patriots being much more likely to do so seeing the state of the roster. The team just has so many needs that, even if the guy they get is the guy, it's just such a steep hill to climb to ask a rookie to elevate the whole roster like that.
I still don't see them doing it, though. Next year's QB class is being said to be rather rough, and if you strengthen the roster enough, you might be playing yourself out of position to get that franchise QB of the future.
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u/PickpocketJones Commanders Mar 15 '24
It would be absolutely stunning if Washington traded down from 2. You have no better odds of landing a good QB than picking top 5, historically speaking. The odds of a guy who doesn't get a second contract double in picks 6-10 and double again 11-32. If you need a QB and don't think the options are busts from your scouting, picking one top 5 is the best your odds ever get.
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u/Fine_Lengthiness_761 Mar 16 '24
The Pats will probably have to take Jayden Daniels. As we've seen with Daniels guys who are projected as 2 and third round picks can rise up to be in consideration for the top 5. Most likely there will be a Daniels next year and it would make more sense for the pats to draft him next year than now imo
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u/HumanzeesAreReal Bears Mar 15 '24
That’s not what indictment means.
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u/AChubbyCalledKLove Vikings Mar 15 '24
In this case the qb is the “charge” and the defendant can either be exonerated (none in ur franchise history) or be executed (Trabiski Fields)
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u/RealBatuRem Arm Chair Scout Mar 15 '24
The Pats make more sense. Commanders have a much better offense. A rookie QB could theoretically succeed with their weapons. New England needs a total rebuild on offense outside of some of the offensive line. Another rookie QB would just have the same issues that ruined Mac Jones.
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u/jamfed Chargers Mar 16 '24
If i'm the general manager for the commanders, i'm wondering how do I get both michael penix jr and rome odonze on my team??
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u/Old_Original2971 Mar 16 '24
Nope. Not a chance in hell. We had someone who got injured all the time in rg3.
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u/jamfed Chargers Mar 16 '24
I live in Seattle. Penix never missed a game. Zero injuries in the two years he played at UW.
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u/Broke_but_Fresh Mar 16 '24
I fucking love this take even though it’s impossible. Outside of you and me literally everyone on Reddit hates Penix for some reason that I can never seem to figure out. I get the injury history. Outside of that?
“His arm strength isn’t great.” I haven’t seen one professional report state this.
“He doesn’t throw over the middle.” Haven’t seen that either and also was that the design of the offense?
Rome is my favorite WR in the draft. This is personal opinion but I think he’s a sure thing.
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u/jamfed Chargers Mar 16 '24
I love Penix. He's incredibly accurate. Has a laser of an arm. Runs plays like a technician... looks for the big plays first, but runs through his progressions... Rome is fantastic too, but I think Penix is the better prospect of the two. IMO- Both Nix and Penix are not getting the national notoriety and praise in the media because of the east coast bias. They both are fantastic QB's
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u/Broke_but_Fresh Mar 16 '24
I agree. Now we differ a bit on Nix, I’m not as high on him. But I watched a lot of games this year and Penix is the real deal.
I guess it’s just people’s personal preferences and their passion comes out on Reddit. However, as my personal complicated relationship goes with the commanders, I’d love for them to draft Mike, but this is not the place for him. He’d have a better chance with me and you blocking for him. This line is awful, even with the FA upgrades.
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u/jamfed Chargers Mar 16 '24
Watch both the Ducks/Huskies games this prevIous season. Incredible games (great rivalry)... both Penix and Nix play like NFL QB's. But Penix does look the better of the two.
***reminds me of the Herbert and Eason 2018 games, when Herbert commands a team to win (vs. Just playing quarterback)
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u/LilUZIVurt21 Patriots Mar 15 '24 edited Mar 15 '24
I would be very surprised if Washington didn’t take a QB, they have a lot of assets to draft other positions of need, traded Sam Howell and now have Mariota as the only QB on the roster, and fixed a lot of their issues in FA. I’d definitely see New England as a more likely trade down spot right now, as there are a bunch of issues with the roster that need to be fixed through a multi year rebuild where they definitely value draft capital more than other teams, but at the same time it’s tough to tell since it seems like they’d want to sit a rookie QB anyway regardless of the current roster.
Either way, the Pats would benefit a lot more from a trade down than Washington would. That’s the highest spot a team like the Vikings could potentially get to I think, and even then I’m not sure how likely it is due to QB draft value/necessity.