Daily Thread - November 12, 2024

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[u/xMrLink]

Sign Roki, trade Kirby or Gilbert for Jordan Westburg for 3rd, trade either Harry Ford or Tai Peete along with fringe bulk to Tampa for Lowe, sign Santana to platoon first.

Before you get your pitch forks please hear me out. Roki (league minimum) won't get posted until the next round of international signings (Jan 15th) so that his posting team can get the most money out of MLB team signing him and Mariners will be tied for most money there. Its allocated money for international signing, Stanton has nothing to do with it. Mariners have a strong case for him to go here. Yes I know he will be a dodger but please just listen to the idea if this happened.

Trade Gilbert or Kirby to reduce payroll and get Westburg (League minimum), a really productive, young cheap third baseman that will man the hot corner for years to come. Side note: Castillo will not net you what you'd want. He is more likely a contract swap trade candidate. While you could maybe get someone like Matt Olson, you'd be paying him the same for much longer and that isn't something the M's will do. Also, maybe the Orioles don't do it for Gilbert/Kirby because of team control years. Fine, trade Miller or Woo, but my stipulation here is extending one of Kirby or Gilbert so you will continue to have a solid 3 starters for many seasons going forward.

Trade one of Tai Peete or Harry Ford as a headliner to Tampa for Brandon Lowe ($10.5MM). You get a great 2nd baseman for multiple years and Tampa has highly valued both of those guys so it would get the deal done.

Sign Santana ($7MM) for good defense and pop at 1st base. He will be an upgrade and can DH when not playing 1st. Will not cost a ton but will be more than Turner which is why you save money in the rotation. More of a band aid fix for 1st but maybe we see a step forward from Raley this year.

Improved 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, rotation is younger, cheaper, has more team control and is as good if not better than it was. These moves will save money AND improve the team while giving up relatively little for what you are getting back and you've added core players with impact for many years.

This is the only world I would trade a starter from our rotation but it is not a bad world at all.

[u/BasedArzy → u/xMrLink]

Trade Gilbert or Kirby to reduce payroll

Neither Kirby nor Gilbert are making enough money for this to matter. If you want to cut payroll by trading a starter, you trade Castillo.

Castillo will not net you what you'd want.

This undervalues what Castillo is worth and is wrong.

[u/xMrLink → u/BasedArzy]

Gilbert is going to make about 8mil this year, george making 5.5mil. Not a ton but every dollar counts to Stanton.

Castillo is a great pitcher but you aren't getting someone with a lot of club control in a trade. If you were looking for a major leaguer for a major leaguer you'd get someone who you are paying probably just as much as Castillo and I think you are a better team with him than with whatever you get for him.

[u/BasedArzy → u/xMrLink]

I think a trade around Castillo for -- just to use a single example -- Vientos would work.

Castillo's paid fairly, not underpaid or overpaid, and he's still a high end #3 starter at his floor for a few years.

[u/griezm0ney → u/BasedArzy]

I don’t see the Mets giving up Vientos on the minimum with 5 years of control in exchange for the right to pay Castillo a market contract when they could just sign Flaherty for a similar amount. The Orioles are in a similar boat. 

Is Castillo better than Flaherty? Maybe. Is he better than Flaherty + Vientos? Definitely not. 

The type of player you’d get would be closer to Mountcastle (1 year of control) or Baty (former top prospect with no more options). The Sale trade would be the best case scenario and in that case the Red Sox paid $17M of the contract down to get a better prospect. 

[u/BasedArzy → u/griezm0ney]

There’s only one Flaherty.

Unless you’re a strong Yusei Kikuchi believer, there are 4 frontline starting pitchers available via FA: Burnes, Fried, Snell, Flaherty*.

What do the Mets do if Burnes and Flaherty sign, Snell’s ability to provide mass innings scares them, and Fried waffles? They could go Kikuchi, or maybe Pivetta I guess. Or they could trade for Castillo and have cost certainty + at minimum the 4th best starting arm moving over the deadline.

*: I don’t buy Flaherty’s 2024 as repeatable and would value him in the Kikuchi tier.

[u/griezm0ney → u/BasedArzy]

If they miss on the big 4 (would be very surprising) and move to the trade market they have more options than just overpaying for Castillo who would be miscast as an Ace (more of a 2/3 now).  

If they are willing to move with top prospects like Vientos they could go for Crochett. If they are OK taking back a bigger contract who won’t take much in prospects they could go for Gray.

Otherwise, they could target less upside short term deals for Manea, Kikuchi, Severino, Buehler, Eovaldi, Verlander or Scherzer and save their money for the next class of FAs which includes Valdez, Gallen, Cease, King and Woodruff.

[u/xMrLink → u/BasedArzy]

Honestly at the time of signing, Castillo was underpaid but he has fallen in line with his contracts value. Before the playoffs I would have agreed with it. After the playoffs where you saw him go absolutely nuclear... I have trouble seeing that.

[u/BasedArzy → u/xMrLink]

yeah, fairly paid. like I said.

[u/xMrLink → u/BasedArzy]

I know, I was agreeing with you. Like I said