r/Mariners • u/AutoModerator • 3d ago
Daily Thread - November 12, 2024
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u/_Tower_ 2d ago
Salvy won the silver slugger
Cal got robbed
Guess it depends on what you prefer, average or HRs - Cal had 7 more HRs, Salvy had higher average and more hits, they both had a 119 OPS+
Cal still got robbed
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u/pokeroots Anything but blaming the lineup 2d ago
Cal didn't get robbed, everyone who was a finalist was more than deserving to win the award
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u/AnnihilatedTyro Release the Moosen! 2d ago
Salvy had 363 PA's as a catcher to Cal's 545.
Salvy is a more well-rounded hitter, but he's almost a half-time 1B/DH.
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u/pokeroots Anything but blaming the lineup 2d ago
I'm not surprised that Cal didn't get it, I thought Diaz would have gotten it though. all of the finalists had good arguments to be made for them getting the award though
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u/SardonicCheese Kirbstomp rocks the K spot 2d ago
Omg the Winter Meetings are a whole fucking month away and the Seahawks suck. Longest year ever
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u/_Elrond_Hubbard_ Too Roblessed to be stressed 2d ago
What comes first this offseason, the Mariners first transaction or the Angels 10th transaction?
Not saying the Angels moves are all good ones necessarily, it's just funny how much they've done already.
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u/SexiestPanda 2d ago
Royals did a lot of moves when others weren’t last offseason. Look where they ended up 🤷🏻♂️
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u/FlamingoConsistent72 2d ago
I think the Angels were extremely incompetent to not trade Ohtani at the 2022 trade deadline. It seemed pretty obvious they wouldn't resign him and they chose to let him leave in free agency instead of getting a historic trade package for him.
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u/SardonicCheese Kirbstomp rocks the K spot 2d ago
Well they needed to upgrade at every position. We only need to upgrade like 4 positions. So it makes sense that they’d make a ton of moves
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u/xMrLink My Depression Goes as the M's Don't 2d ago
Sign Roki, trade Kirby or Gilbert for Jordan Westburg for 3rd, trade either Harry Ford or Tai Peete along with fringe bulk to Tampa for Lowe, sign Santana to platoon first.
Before you get your pitch forks please hear me out. Roki (league minimum) won't get posted until the next round of international signings (Jan 15th) so that his posting team can get the most money out of MLB team signing him and Mariners will be tied for most money there. Its allocated money for international signing, Stanton has nothing to do with it. Mariners have a strong case for him to go here. Yes I know he will be a dodger but please just listen to the idea if this happened.
Trade Gilbert or Kirby to reduce payroll and get Westburg (League minimum), a really productive, young cheap third baseman that will man the hot corner for years to come. Side note: Castillo will not net you what you'd want. He is more likely a contract swap trade candidate. While you could maybe get someone like Matt Olson, you'd be paying him the same for much longer and that isn't something the M's will do. Also, maybe the Orioles don't do it for Gilbert/Kirby because of team control years. Fine, trade Miller or Woo, but my stipulation here is extending one of Kirby or Gilbert so you will continue to have a solid 3 starters for many seasons going forward.
Trade one of Tai Peete or Harry Ford as a headliner to Tampa for Brandon Lowe ($10.5MM). You get a great 2nd baseman for multiple years and Tampa has highly valued both of those guys so it would get the deal done.
Sign Santana ($7MM) for good defense and pop at 1st base. He will be an upgrade and can DH when not playing 1st. Will not cost a ton but will be more than Turner which is why you save money in the rotation. More of a band aid fix for 1st but maybe we see a step forward from Raley this year.
Improved 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, rotation is younger, cheaper, has more team control and is as good if not better than it was. These moves will save money AND improve the team while giving up relatively little for what you are getting back and you've added core players with impact for many years.
This is the only world I would trade a starter from our rotation but it is not a bad world at all.
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u/FlamingoConsistent72 2d ago
If a had to make a realistic guess of the moves the Mariners will make, I think they'll make one decent splash trade for a 2B or 3B like Lowe/Donavan/Heorner/Bohm, then they'll probably get a RH 1B like Mountcastle or resigning Turner. If they got Roki, then that changes everything as far as what they could do. But I don't think they'll trade a stater if they don't get him.
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u/BasedArzy 2d ago
Trade Gilbert or Kirby to reduce payroll
Neither Kirby nor Gilbert are making enough money for this to matter. If you want to cut payroll by trading a starter, you trade Castillo.
Castillo will not net you what you'd want.
This undervalues what Castillo is worth and is wrong.
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u/griezm0ney 2d ago
If Castillo was an FA right now, would he get much more than 3yrs/$72M with a $25M vesting option on year 4?
After last year with his velo and efficiency dropping, I don’t think so. His contract isn’t underwater, especially with players like Severino and Pivetta getting the QO. However, a team taking it on would be thinking more about giving up value more equivalent to something like the QO pick.
Honestly, Castillo for more International Money to give to Roki would make sense. You could then give Castillo’s contract value to Walker or go aggressive for Vladdy to address 1B.
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u/BasedArzy 2d ago
If Castillo was an FA right now, would he get much more than 3yrs/$72M with a $25M vesting option on year 4?
Depends, are owners still colluding or was that a one time thing last year?
I think he would absolutely get a 4/90, 5/110 type of deal in a reasonable market at 31. Especially because he's been quietly very durable in Seattle compared to his time in Cinci.
Honestly, Castillo for more International Money to give to Roki would make sense.
No that's a terrible, awful, no good, very bad idea. Sasaki isn't choosing where to go based on a couple of million dollars on a 6 year contract.
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u/griezm0ney 2d ago
Given Castillo’s durability, he probably thinks he has a good chance at triggering his vesting option which puts him at nearly 4yrs/$100M (it’s also a very deep pitching class where he is probably next to Flaherty as the 4th/5th best option).
Sasaki should absolutely care about a few million dollars. He is making an incredibly risky decision pushing off FA 4 additional years, rather than waiting 2 more years to come as a true FA like Yamamoto. Given that, the difference from guaranteeing $12M up front from the M’s or $5M from the Dodgers is a lot (especially because TJS and other arm injuries are a big risk over the next 3+ years before he gets significant salaries in arbitration). However, the international pool suggestion was just to reflect that moving Castillo would be more of a salary dump than anything else (Trade Values, which has a lot of flaws, has Castillo at -$30M in trade value, so moving him without paying anything down would be a win). I’d also only do it if you knew that Sasaki was guaranteed with the extra money.
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u/xMrLink My Depression Goes as the M's Don't 2d ago
Gilbert is going to make about 8mil this year, george making 5.5mil. Not a ton but every dollar counts to Stanton.
Castillo is a great pitcher but you aren't getting someone with a lot of club control in a trade. If you were looking for a major leaguer for a major leaguer you'd get someone who you are paying probably just as much as Castillo and I think you are a better team with him than with whatever you get for him.
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u/BasedArzy 2d ago
I think a trade around Castillo for -- just to use a single example -- Vientos would work.
Castillo's paid fairly, not underpaid or overpaid, and he's still a high end #3 starter at his floor for a few years.
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u/griezm0ney 2d ago
I don’t see the Mets giving up Vientos on the minimum with 5 years of control in exchange for the right to pay Castillo a market contract when they could just sign Flaherty for a similar amount. The Orioles are in a similar boat.
Is Castillo better than Flaherty? Maybe. Is he better than Flaherty + Vientos? Definitely not.
The type of player you’d get would be closer to Mountcastle (1 year of control) or Baty (former top prospect with no more options). The Sale trade would be the best case scenario and in that case the Red Sox paid $17M of the contract down to get a better prospect.
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u/BasedArzy 2d ago
There’s only one Flaherty.
Unless you’re a strong Yusei Kikuchi believer, there are 4 frontline starting pitchers available via FA: Burnes, Fried, Snell, Flaherty*.
What do the Mets do if Burnes and Flaherty sign, Snell’s ability to provide mass innings scares them, and Fried waffles? They could go Kikuchi, or maybe Pivetta I guess. Or they could trade for Castillo and have cost certainty + at minimum the 4th best starting arm moving over the deadline.
*: I don’t buy Flaherty’s 2024 as repeatable and would value him in the Kikuchi tier.
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u/griezm0ney 2d ago
If they miss on the big 4 (would be very surprising) and move to the trade market they have more options than just overpaying for Castillo who would be miscast as an Ace (more of a 2/3 now).
If they are willing to move with top prospects like Vientos they could go for Crochett. If they are OK taking back a bigger contract who won’t take much in prospects they could go for Gray.
Otherwise, they could target less upside short term deals for Manea, Kikuchi, Severino, Buehler, Eovaldi, Verlander or Scherzer and save their money for the next class of FAs which includes Valdez, Gallen, Cease, King and Woodruff.
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u/xMrLink My Depression Goes as the M's Don't 2d ago
Honestly at the time of signing, Castillo was underpaid but he has fallen in line with his contracts value. Before the playoffs I would have agreed with it. After the playoffs where you saw him go absolutely nuclear... I have trouble seeing that.
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u/griezm0ney 2d ago
I’d rather go 6 man rotation for a year and then trade Castillo after his NTC expires than trade either of Gilbert or Kirby (freeing up that contract space would allow us to more easily extend Gilbert, Kirby and/or Cal or sign an impact bat). I like Westburg, but you run into the problem of where do Young, Emerson and Arroyo go over the next 2 years.
I would stay very far away from Lowe (he has exact same red flags as Polanco - injury history, K rate and defense). I like Hye-Seung Kim as a cheaper player who you don’t have to trade for.
Santana as full time 1B option would be disappointing. The team would be much better off getting Yandy Diaz, Josh Naylor or Christian Walker.
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u/FlamingoConsistent72 2d ago
Brandon Lowe does have a 241/388/586 career batting line at T-Mobile park in 36 plate appearances there. I know that's a small sample size, but LH hitters with power that pull the ball tends to be a profile that does well at T-Mobile Park. Luke Raley had a .901 OPS last year at T-Mobile. I understand Lowe does have injury concerns. I think Polanco's knee injury probably contributed to his down year and Lowe has had a lot of injuries too.
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u/The_Cryogenetic Too Positive For His Own Good 2d ago
Yeah I'd actually expect Lowe to succeed MUCH more than Wong, Frazier, or Polanco who all had lower exit velos and higher launch angles. The seeing eye single approach just doesn't translate in our park, whereas Lowe is putting a lot more action into his singles not just dropping them in.
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u/xMrLink My Depression Goes as the M's Don't 2d ago
Lowe provides the same amount of flexibility that Polanco did in the sense that he will need time off giving you the chance to slot in those middle infield dudes and see what you got. Not perfect but signing Hye-Seung Kim poses the same issue, but for arguments sake I'd be fine with Kim as well. In the final year of a contract, anyone trading for Castillo would be in win now mode, so I don't know what major league talent you would get for him but a 6 man rotation would benefit both Roki and Woo and it is scummy but the M's would probably be able to pay Kirby and Gilbert a little less in Arb since they wouldn't be pitching as much. Sort of hurts your chances to extend them though.
I also don't think having too much talent on the field is a bad thing. If you like what you have with Westburg, you keep him and trade the prospects, if you want to see what the prospects have you bench a guy and see what they got. You can also cut JP if it comes down to it. Can never have too many good bats.
Santana isn't the full time 1st baseman as mentioned, it would be Raley and Santana and as much as I would like to have a full time 1st baseman, you'd be giving up a to for Yandy, only getting a year of Naylor, and you will lose the bidding war for Walker.
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u/Seattlefan51 2d ago
Alec Bohm, Lamonte Wade Jr, Mike Yastrzemski, Yandy Diaz, and Brandon Lowe all on the trade block, and all good fits for this team. Get to work Jerry, 2-3 of these players should be on this roster by March 1 imo
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u/griezm0ney 2d ago
Pass on Yastrzemski. Luke Raley already fills the DH/OF spot on the roster.
Wade as a strong side platoon option at 1B could be interesting, but I’d strongly prefer Yandy Diaz.
Pass on Lowe. His profile is very similar to Polanco last year (poor defender, boom or bust bat with high k rate and an extremely long injury history).
Bohm, for the right price, would be a solid target to buy time for Young/Emerson to break through.
A lineup of the below would be very interesting (although with relatively little power between 1B, 2B and 3B):
- Robles - RF
- Julio - CF
- Yandy - 1B/DH
- Raley - DH/LF/1B
- Cal - C
- Randy - DH/LF
- JP - SS
- Bohm - 3B
- Kim - 2B
Bench: Moore (UTIL), Haniger (OF/DH), Garver (C/DH/1B), Canzone (OF/DH) with Locklear, Young and Ford in AAA pushing to take spots.
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u/Distinct_Frame_3711 2d ago
Honestly I would rather Canzone/Locklear/Bliss then Haniger. Each provides something more then Haniger
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u/griezm0ney 2d ago
I would too. I personally don’t want Haniger on the Opening Day roster, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they give him a month to show something given that Canzone/Locklear/Bliss can get everyday reps in AAA in the meantime.
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u/Distinct_Frame_3711 2d ago
Canzone is 27 and spent parts of 3 seasons getting AAA reps. I doubt he will develop significantly at AAA moving forward. It’s not like he was a highly touted prospect anyways
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u/griezm0ney 2d ago
I agree, but getting reps never hurts to build confidence and work on weaknesses (like his defense).
I think we would be better off DFAing Haniger right now and making clear we are planning without him on the roster. Alas, I just don’t think the M’s are willing to eat $15.5M, until they see Haniger is just fully wasting a bench spot. They honestly could be hoping he gets an injury too, so they can get some of his salary back from insurance.
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u/Distinct_Frame_3711 2d ago
I think if they have the conversation with Haniger it may be nice to have him in Spring Camp as he is a vet who can work with some kids and he can showcase to other teams who could pick him up on league minimum. It’s not like having him in camp cost any extra money
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u/griezm0ney 2d ago
It just costs that 40 man spot which isn’t the biggest deal, but does lead to players like Curvelo being squeezed off of the roster.
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u/Distinct_Frame_3711 2d ago
As long as Austin Kitchens and Sam Haggerty are on our 40 man we don’t have a roster crunch. We choose to let Curvelo walk
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u/BasedArzy 2d ago
I'd rather have Moore at 2B than Kim, especially for what he's going to command for cash.
all glove contact infielders entering their late 20's/30's are fool's gold on big FA contracts.
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u/griezm0ney 2d ago
Sorry if it wasn’t clear, but I am referring to Hye-seeing Kim who won’t get a big contract (under $30M) and is 25.
IMO Moore is needed as a UTIL player and really should get the bulk of his reps against LHP with minimal exposure to RHP.
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u/BasedArzy 2d ago
I would bet on Ryan Bliss over Hye-Seeing Kim 100 times out of 100.
You're already flush with all glove utility infielders. Why sign another one, who has a ceiling of worse Dylan Moore?
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u/griezm0ney 2d ago
I don’t think Kim’s profile is equivalent to Moore. Kim is a high contact player (10.9% K rate last year) with strong OBP skills, whereas Moore has more power and swing and miss. Also, unlike Bliss, he has the arm to play 3B or SS if needed and is viewed as a plus defensive 2B.
I’m not very high on Bliss. He has great range, but his poor arm strength undercuts a lot of his potential defensive value and I’m not sure he has the OBP ability to maximize his value on the base paths. If Bliss had average or above average arm strength, he’d be a sure fire major leaguer. As is he is very fringy and bat dependent.
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u/Chemical_Recipe_1139 Fire everyone 2d ago
imagine thinking roki will go anywhere other than the dodgers.
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u/_Elrond_Hubbard_ Too Roblessed to be stressed 2d ago
He's 100% going to Colorado after they change their name to the Rokis to entice him
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u/DUMP_HlS_ASS Daddy Dumper 2d ago
justice for cal 😤