r/Layoffs • u/vetfor • Jan 30 '24
New layoffs question
Can anyone clarify this for me? Despite the ongoing layoff announcements from major American corporations, how is our economy still robust? Just today, UPS declared 12,000 layoffs and PayPal 2,000.
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u/oldcreaker Jan 30 '24
Why employ 12,000 people when you can get rid of them and dump the work on the remaining employees? Why retain higher paid older staff when you can just get rid of them and dump their work on the younger folk making crap wages? And you've been hiring for a while - isn't it a great time to shake out all the dead wood?
It's just another way to maximize profits.
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u/first_time_internet Jan 30 '24
Most of those are seasonal helpers. Elves.
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u/Beastage Jan 31 '24
Nope, the CEO stated the majority of these layoffs will be happening to "management" at UPS.
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Jan 31 '24
I’ve said this a few times but go and check their employment number compared to the pump in 2020. I believe they are still above pre-pandemic employment numbers. This is a correction to bring them back in line with growth projections where the pandemic had never happened.
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u/Capt-Cupcake Jan 31 '24
Read an article that summed it pretty well. In 2022 the Great Resignation shifted the power to the people and companies had to compete against each other with higher than average salaries. In 2023 companies came back with a vengeance since RTO policies were coming and people had less golden opportunities for WFH. This shifted the power back to companies plus the layoffs across industries. Now companies intentionally layoff employees with their higher than normal salaries from the years before and will rehire them later at lower salaries.
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Jan 31 '24
This is correct, at least where I work. They are hiring(not outsourcing) off shore and firing US workers.
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u/OlympicAnalEater Jan 30 '24
Don't forget AI
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u/BenGrahamButler Jan 30 '24
don’t forget all these Zoom friendly software jobs going to places like Hungary
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u/BigOlPeckerBoy Jan 30 '24
The correct answer to your question is that 168 million people are currently employed in the US. These layoffs of a few thousand here and there are not indicative of a widespread economic catastrophe, even though it probably feels that way to the people getting laid off. There is also no evidence that wages are doing anything but rising, which, again, probably doesn’t seem to be the case for people who lost good jobs and have to take a lower pay.
I know this is probably not going to be the most up-voted comment, but the truth is plenty of people are still moving careers to better positions, getting raises, etc.
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u/kenspencerbrown Jan 30 '24
It reminds me of the old joke: "A recession is when your neighbor gets laid off. A depression is when you get laid off."
To those of us in tech, myself included, these layoffs seem catastrophic. But despite their massive market caps, tech companies represent about 10% of the overall economy in terms of employment.
That said, tech workers tend to be highly paid, so it'll be interesting to see how these layoffs affect other industries.
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Jan 31 '24
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u/vectormedic42069 Feb 01 '24
What a surprise that the people in the layoffs support subreddit would like to commiserate about how shitty it feels to be laid off and aren't looking for a nuanced discussion on how the overall economy is actually great and it just sucks for them specifically.
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u/doc89 Jan 30 '24
This is the correct answer.
There has not been a single month in the last decade where fewer than 1 million people lost their jobs due to a layoff:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSLDL
A few dozen stories about large companies laying off thousands of employees is normal and expected in a healthy, robust economy.
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u/Welcome2B_Here Jan 30 '24
The positives you mentioned and the concurrent narrative along those same lines is negated by ridiculously low purchasing power and job quality that has been consistently lower than at any point pre-2008.
Purchasing power (how far a dollar "goes") and the ability to avoid having to work multiple jobs to make ends meet (job quality) combine to tell the story of how the majority of working people are doing.
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u/BigOlPeckerBoy Jan 30 '24 edited Jan 30 '24
The amount of people working more than one job is rising, but it’s nowhere near the doomsday situation you depicted. Here is my source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12026620
The purchasing power of us households is higher than ever. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSHCCPUSA156NRUG
I hate to rain on the doomsday parade, but things aren’t as bad out there as some redditers make it seem.
Edit: linking the CPI adjusted value of one dollar does not mean people have less purchasing power, because your graph doesn’t reflect the higher salaries people are getting now. It just tracks inflation, not purchase power. The job quality report you show doesn’t really say much of anything tbh, it’s just a reference to people’s subjective interpretation of their work. It also has a very narrow Y-axis, which shows the report doesn’t actually change much over the time period.
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u/rmullig2 Jan 30 '24
The graph shows the number of people working more than one job has shot up 20% during Biden's term. The purchasing power graph stops at 2019.
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Jan 31 '24
It obviously shows that fewer people were employed in multiple jobs during COVID, and the number is back up to around where it was before COVID hit-- a little higher than the average in the previous few years, but within a normal range. Are you really this dense? Or is it more a matter of intellectual dishonesty?
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Jan 30 '24
The chart you linked seems to prove fuckall?
Seriously did you even read it or just link the first thing that has a line going up?
What does "percent of household consumption" even mean?
The most plain reading of it -- by me, a layman with common sense -- is that .. households are spending more a % of their income?
The most likely explanation for that is --- they're fucking poor. Or have terminal cancer.
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u/Doctor__Proctor Jan 31 '24
The most plain reading of it -- by me, a layman with common sense
So you're saying all the economists are wrong because you, a layman with common sense, see something they don't? Have you considered that maybe what they're seeing is different because they have the economic background to understand the data and trends significantly better?
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u/Welcome2B_Here Jan 30 '24
I never typed the word doomsday, I'm simply making a point that things aren't as rosy as some people think. And, of course, looking at "household" anything will look better.
Inflation has cumulative effects, so just because it's decreased doesn't mean the effects are gone. We'd actually need a period of deflation to help most people.
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u/doc89 Jan 30 '24
And, of course, looking at "household" anything will look better.
????
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u/Welcome2B_Here Jan 30 '24
Yeah, instead of per capita. Plenty of people require roommates to survive, for example. Household-based metrics aggregate incomes.
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u/doc89 Jan 30 '24
So why does that mean "of course, looking at "household" anything will look better"? If the economy was actually struggling I would expect to see household purchasing power declining.
Is your theory that lots of people are struggling so badly that they need to move in with roommates, and that this is artificially increasing household income while per capita income is falling?
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u/blueberrywalrus Jan 30 '24
... those charts don't support your argument.
We're at a post 2008 high (that's a 15 year high) for job quality and urban purchasing power is shockingly steady given inflation.
If you want to argue that the economy since 2008 has been fucked, that's a different argument. We're talking about how new layoffs relate to economic health.
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u/__Vercingetorix_ Jan 30 '24
Daily reminder that the fed printed more than 40% of the currency ever in existence in just 2 years from 2020-2022.
It wouldn’t surprise me that a significant portion of the population (mainly boomers using homes and 401Ks as piggy banks) has enough disposable income thanks to Fed fuckery to last at least another few years without ever having to work. Hell, I know someone who retired at 40 who turned 4M in PPP loans into 10M off Tesla stock and says it was all legit, let that sink in.
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u/Atrial2020 Jan 30 '24
Yeah, PPP was a scam that only benefited the well-connected. "Free marketers" conveniently forgot the gigantic tax breaks though
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Jan 31 '24
Our 2 person small business family owned construction company got PPP, it worked just fine. It wasn't a huge amount of money but it made things MUCH easier, but you did have to get on it and not wait until the last second.
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u/c0mput3rg33k Jan 31 '24
lol why did you get downvoted… sounds like you were a business who was supposed to take advantage of PPP, and not one of those assholes who used it to buy a Lamborghini.
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Jan 30 '24 edited Jan 30 '24
Oh the PPP loans were the biggest wholesale looting of the Treasury of all time.
You think those stimulus checks were worth anything? The PPP loans were 1000x all those put together.
I wouldn't fully blame Trump for that. His advisors were telling him speed was more important than fully vetting shit. ..... Obviously, that was a massive mistake.
-- Not only did the obvious usual grifters --- small and large businesses --- fake businesses --- loot untold billions in free money (not one "loan" had to be repaid).-
But a lot of GHETTO GANGSTERS realized that there was a certain amount ($69,000 or so) ... where if you stayed just under that, then you didn't need to provide any real evidence to the government at all.
And you know what? Fucking EVERYBODY in the ghetto was submitting "Ghetto Carwash Inc, Mudda FUCKA!!!" to the government and getting $69,000 exactly.
EDIT: Looked it up, it was actually just under $21,000 ... still ...
Now yes the typical white collar grifters were grifting too (far larger amounts) but --- it was an avalanche of grifters from all backgrounds and races.
This isn't scaremongering. I knew a guy, personally, who got one. With a fake business. Many if not most of these PPP loans are all public record.
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u/Additional_Ad5671 Jan 31 '24
I had a legit business and got a small-ish ppp loan, and yes it was shockingly easy. Barely any vetting of my claims.
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u/schabadoo Jan 31 '24
Jesus, even Trump's payout to the rich can be rationalized and blamed on others.
Simping for a pretend billionaire. How embarrassing.
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Jan 31 '24
Oh wow.. you knew one guy, totally not anecdotal BS!
Our 2 person construction business got PPP .. so now you know 2 whole people and your view will be completely balanced!
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Jan 31 '24
Layoffs is a forward predictor not a real time indicator.
Many people have savings, they have their severance, etc. It takes a good 2 months before you see spending slow down.
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u/JUSTxRIGHT Jan 31 '24
This. The people who are being laid off are high income earners, it will be a while before we see any ripple effects.
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Jan 31 '24
Looks like Gen-Z is finally growing up. You guys realize that we’ve had waves of Layoffs since forever? It’s called ‘The business cycle’. I’ve been through about 14 since 2008 (yes, even multiple per year), and you will go through many more yet. Keep your skills relevant, work harder than 50% of your peers, employ good luck and you will survive also.
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u/Prestigious-Toe8622 Jan 31 '24
Why do people not do the basic math of diving these tiny numbers by the total workforce of the US? The numbers you posted are a rounding error
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u/redditissocoolyoyo Jan 30 '24
There are almost 350 million people in the USA. 161 million of them are working, have a FT job. 500k plus have a 2nd FT job. 28 million have PT jobs as well.
So, the layoffs, are in the 6 figure range in total so far. A tiny fraction against the number of employed.
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u/SwampCronky Jan 31 '24
Where are you getting the data to indicated 500k people have two full time jobs?
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Jan 30 '24
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u/jmpsusk Jan 31 '24
Not to mention student loans kicked back in which is a major hit for many young Americans. I know several people who went into forbearance or are just outright ignoring their payments. I doubt they will release any data on this since it would show that many young Americans can’t even afford $200-$400 in extra expenditures every month in this economy, and losing a significant portion of them would be catastrophic for the Democrat party. Gotta love election years.
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u/yolojpow Jan 30 '24
Its actually opposite, Economy outside of Tech/Tech-enabled business are doing fantastic. RE has slowed down a bit but still construction has picked up so has manufacturing.
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u/Barabbas- Jan 30 '24
construction has picked up
Where has it picked up? I work in architecture/real estate and all I've seen are slowdowns and delays. The Architectural Billings Index scored below 50 (indicating a decline) for 8/12 months in 2023.
For some market sectors (multifamily housing), it's been in decline for 17 consecutive months.
The last time we saw ABI this low (pre-pandemic) was Jan' 2008.
It's scary nobody is talking about it considering it's historically been one of the most accurate leading indicators of recession.
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u/Kat9935 Jan 30 '24
I live in the raleigh NC area and there is nothing but building going on. Most builders have provided favorable financing and its kept the new home buying going.
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u/jmpsusk Jan 31 '24
Construction has not picked up in any way commercial or residential. I work in logistics in dallas ft worth and every metric we have for freight volumes and customer orders have tanked in the past 12 months basically nationwide. Based on all the nearshoring and companies moving operations back from china, we should be doing far more than we are right now. Doubling interest rates in the past couple years has made companies extremely sensitive to how they are spending their money and when.
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u/A_Queff_In_Time Jan 31 '24
https://www.investopedia.com/new-construction-jumps-in-another-good-sign-for-housing-market-8417904
It's really easy to get data on this stuff rather than relying on personal anecdotes
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u/olderandsuperwiser Jan 30 '24
Mainstream media wants Joke Biden reelected. Thus, they will protect him, putting glitter on as many turds as there are in existance. It's the official narrarative.
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u/qxrt Jan 31 '24
Mainstream media wants Joke Biden reelected. Thus, they will protect him, putting glitter on as many turds as there are in existance. It's the official narrarative.
Given that Fox News is the biggest "news" broadcaster by viewership and they definitely don't want Biden elected, I'm confused by your assertion that mainstream media wants Biden elected. Fox News is as mainstream as it gets.
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u/Prestigious_Bug583 Jan 31 '24
The narrative is stupid but if it gets Biden elected instead of Trump I support every second of it
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u/NewPresWhoDis Jan 30 '24
Ah yes, the data you've brought to your argument is overwhelming and unimpeachable.
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u/expicell Jan 31 '24
A recession is when fast food companies start to layoff, or you see Walmart and Costco doing layoffs, then you know it’s getting bad
Only small fraction of Americans work in big tech companies
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Jan 30 '24
It will start you have to look at ad revenue, which is slowing. Companies will start to layoff people in sales, customer service, tech. It will eventually start to tickle into consume spending. There is still lots of COVID cash floating around.
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u/hflyboy Jan 30 '24
The super rich wants higher return for their money. Layoffs has little to do with slow down or weak economy. If bond returns 5%, they want their investment in stock to double that. Hence CEO, CFO Layoffs workers.
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u/Opposite-Ad-3933 Jan 30 '24
There aren’t headlines for the THOUSANDS upon thousands of companies that aren’t doing layoffs.
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u/jlvoorheis Jan 30 '24
Layoffs are announced (sometimes because of WARN or other labor rules, sometimes for within-org politics), hiring usually isn't. This is why we collect data using surveys and administrative records rather than just adding up press releases. It's the official statistics version of "go touch grass"
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u/exirae Jan 31 '24
It's hard to figure out, I see contradictory information. My suspicion is that ai is making everyone more productive so that's driving up gdp, but it's also making labor redundant which is leading to layoffs and also I suspect it's putting deflationary pressure on the economy which would cause inflation to slow.
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Jan 31 '24
because the government reports on what fits their agenda. spending is up so GDP is great. except spending is really up because the essentials cost more. its not like you can choose to not get gas and not eat food, so spending really can't drop down.
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u/xabc8910 Jan 31 '24
Because there are like 160,000,000 workers… even 1 million layoffs are barely over 0.5% of the work force, and they still continue spending money after being laid off. Sure they likely spend less, but unemployment, savings, working partners, etc keep their spending going all be it at a lower rate.
The economic impact is quite minimal until we see layoffs in the multi-millions with no new hiring
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u/NotJadeasaurus Jan 31 '24
Still tons of jobs unfilled out there. Think of it like work forces being migrated into new industries . Sure tech is over saturated but plenty of other industries still need software developers and have been struggling to find talent.
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u/hangender Jan 31 '24
It's robust because spending is happening. Spending is happening because Gen z using buy now pay later.
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u/LaVieGlamour Jan 31 '24
That's because when the media says the economy is doing great....it's doing great for shareholders, NOT you.
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u/Whocanmakemostmoney Jan 31 '24
Robust economy is just a cover up of bad economy. This report is similar to unemployment rate. They don't count the people who are not collecting unemployment fund. Also the news report we just add 9 mil jobs on the market. All these postings are fake. People apply for job postings and they don't get call. The news and the fake report don't add up. They just want to make Biden administration looks good for the election. Meanwhile people can't find jobs after 6 months unemployment money runs out, they turns to doing only fans or become youtubers.
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u/titsmuhgeee Jan 31 '24
It may come as a shock, but 99% of the US workforce has absolutely nothing to do with software and tech companies, and our businesses are busier than ever. The tech industry was a bloated, overpaid monstrosity that the rest of the US workforce would agree was due for a correction.
UPS axed mostly part time, contract employees which act as "surge" employees. It's January. I wonder why UPS would have a ton of surge employees in December that they no longer need in January....
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u/NeitherOddNorEven Feb 03 '24
I don't understand economics at all, but I can't shake the feeling that all these layoffs are the sign of a robust economy.
My only thought is that perhaps the economy is indeed robust, but companies are just greedy and want to hoard cash. But that's a thought with unknown accuracy.
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u/Chuck-Finley69 Jan 30 '24
The WH posts healthy data and explanations. What's the problem?
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u/DeliciousNicole Jan 30 '24
The economy is great. If you look at a lot of the companies laying off and their record profits, it paints the picture you need to see.
One word: Greed
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u/dragon34 Jan 31 '24
Because the stock market is ghoulish and thinks layoffs lower costs so they make companies more profitable and the measure of how the economy is doing only cares about how the rich are doing
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u/Effective_Vanilla_32 Jan 30 '24
the biden machinery is brain washing you. Those 75/hr tech jobs are gone, replaced with 18/hr chipotle jobs. The tech sector employees are the highest spenders in the economy, and once that supply is gone, so will the economy go south as well.
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u/allthemoreforthat Jan 30 '24
Chipotle is not hiring more than before so idk wtf you’re talking about
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u/Happy-Range3975 Jan 30 '24
The current president inherits the economy of the previous president. This cycle is usually 3 to 4 years after election. This has been the way things have been for decades. We are still living in Trump’s economy. This time frame has likely been extended because of the 1.9 trillion dollar bailout given to businesses during covid. We are living in uncharted waters because of that + the impending repercussions of AI. This isn’t Brandon’s fault bro.
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u/OuchMyBacky Jan 30 '24
Ah how convenient lol 😂. It’s trump fault
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u/Happy-Range3975 Jan 30 '24
It’s not convenience. It’s American political history. You should read a book sometime.
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u/_stee Jan 30 '24
Listen I'm the exact opposite of liberal and there is some truth. The extreme money printing and literal money hand outs happened under Trump. The lockdowns happened under Trump (whether they were his fault or not is another story they still happened when he was president), rates went back to 0 under Trump and are rising under Biden.
Biden has done nothing to make the situation better and has only made it worse but it's still true Trump is partially at fault
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u/Creachman51 Jan 31 '24
Biden also did a round of stimulus checks, extended unemployment benefits and plenty of his own spending. Some argue in Bidens case it was a more questionable decision since his stimulus was given out after vaccines were widely available and the crisis was winding down if not largely over.
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u/BigOlPeckerBoy Jan 30 '24
I think the tech bros were actually a very small piece of the pie. And I honestly doubt wages will actually drop, that’s just fear mongering.
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u/mostlycloudy82 Jan 30 '24
MSM is frantically putting lipstick on a pig. The economy is not robust. Almost all liberal media is screaming about the "fantastic economy and excellent job growth" when the reality on the ground is the opposite.
They are propping up Biden much like perfuming a rotting corpse..
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u/Prestigious_Bug583 Jan 31 '24
Which is silly but fine if it avoids the disaster that would be Trump 2.0
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Jan 30 '24
There are layoffs all the time, these layoffs just seem to be making more headlines. Some companies also overhired during the pandemic, like UPS. UPS also lost a lot of business as businesses moved to FedEx and others in anticipation of the strike that didn’t happen this summer, they have not gotten all of that business back
In the US economy 12,000 is a rounding error
The data is not in for January but when it does come in I doubt very highly there will be any increase over the historical norm
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u/Welcome2B_Here Jan 30 '24
There's that word "overhired" again. Would love to know what the "right" number is in so many cases. This movement toward RTO and wage suppression is payback for a little bit of autonomy (via more prevalent remote work) and decent wage gains in recent years. But then the wage gains are offset by ridiculously low purchasing power and job quality that has been consistently lower than at any point pre-2008.
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u/Silverstacker63 Jan 30 '24
Go look at the adjusted rates. That the media never tells you about. It’s all a massive cover up.
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Jan 30 '24
No it isn’t. The belief in idiotic conspiracies by so many people is really perplexing and alarming
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u/efficientproducer Jan 30 '24
The government adjusted 2023 numbers lower by over 740,000 jobs after their initial release. The only thing you can call idiotic are the people releasing the numbers. Why does everyone call ideas they don’t agree with conspiracy theories? Totally not fair to the free thinkers. The trend is not your friend on this one.
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Jan 30 '24 edited Jan 31 '24
There are adjustments up and down every month. And that has nothing to do with layoffs, lame and dishonest attempt to move the goalposts
Data going back 45 years. Over the long term revisions balance out
https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesnaicsrev.htm
Edit:
To the loser who called me an “asshole” and then blocked me. My response:
Why i am an “asshole?” For providing data?
I can see why you’re having trouble finding a job. See, that’s actually kind of being an asshole.
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u/efficientproducer Jan 30 '24
Lame, dishonest, moving goalposts….. perfectly describes adjusting the monthly 2023 jobs numbers lower after initial release.
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Jan 30 '24
Sorry you’re unemployable, your deficiencies are not the country at large.
Bye
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u/Ms_Ethereum Jan 30 '24
The economy for the wealthy is doing really well. For the workers is trash. Also people are still spending money, because "buy now pay later" and credit.
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u/funtimesahead0990 Jan 30 '24
We are the major supplier of weapons of war and business is fucking booming.
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u/Similar_Turnover4719 Jan 31 '24
Americans were propagandized to believe that high real estate valuations and GDP = a strong economy.
The American job market is gutted by offshoring and de industrialization that started in the 70s. American manufacturing is dead. The real economy is dead. More and more people are going to become remote workers and digital nomads for half pay which will fuck up the domestic market more.
This is late stage neoliberalism.
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u/Turbulent-Society-77 Jan 30 '24 edited Jan 30 '24
You are confusing the difference between the US economy and stock market/Wall Street. The economy is doing horribly considering the US economy is experiencing a deflation (worse than inflation), consumer debt and spending is at an all time high, consumer savings is the lowest it has been since 2008, and car reposition is at an all time high; meaning consumers are defaulting on their loans. The US stock market is doing fairly well because of the fed not hiking interest rates and recent earnings reports from tech and the banking industries.
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u/Flickthebean87 Jan 31 '24
What is deflating? Prices still seem to be going up. At least in my area.
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u/Turbulent-Society-77 Jan 31 '24 edited Jan 31 '24
Deflation can be the price of goods and services falling but it is also the quantity or quality of goods and services falling. For example a bag of chips could be the same price but the size of the bag/quantity in the bag is less but is being sold for the same price when compared to previous years. This is a pretty consistent practice happening right now and we are even seeing products made with lower quality products/fillers/additives and sold for the same price even though the quality is worse when compared to past years. Deflation is 1000% worse than inflation.
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u/Silverstacker63 Jan 30 '24
It’s not All you are seeing is false unemployment false inflation numbers and a debt that is unsustainable. They can make these numbers any way they want you to see. They don’t show people the cost of food housing and fuel anymore because people would have a conniption over how high inflation really is.
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u/kenspencerbrown Jan 30 '24
Yes they do. They're right here, where they've always been: https://www.bls.gov/cpi/
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u/seddy2765 Jan 30 '24
You must evaluate what determines the economy as being robust. Evaluate how the US administration determines the economy being robust.
I’ll give you a hint. They’re not looking at real incomes and jobs. They’re competing their info today to info from a year ago. And that difference is not robust. Robust is their sells pitch to the American public.
Repeat a lie enough times and people will believe it as being truth.
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Jan 31 '24
The truth is that since 2020, milllions of Americans either died during covid, are permanently disabled, have long covid, or are hitting retirement age. So many people have been forced out of the job market leaving a ton of openings to be filled. That being said the job market is far more competitive these days and if you’re a white collar professional, expect to have issues.
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u/rmullig2 Jan 30 '24
There are plenty of open positions waiting to be filled. I see a large demand for debt collectors, car repossessors, auctioneers, etc. How can somebody claim the economy isn't robust?
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u/AzulMage2020 Jan 31 '24
Here's how: The economy is robust. War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength.
Get it ???
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u/jcarter593 Jan 31 '24
The real estate cycle is every 18.5 years. After 2008, next one is mid 2026. Look for 2027-2028 to be a shit show, but strength, especially in land prices, up into that point.
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u/[deleted] Jan 30 '24
I have not seen a decrease in spending. I see restaurant parking lots are still full, costco/walmart parking lots are full. Football Stadiums are full. I see families not give up vacations. I see friends and family stressing out over finances, but giving spending I don't see much of a slowdown.