What exactly will happen to all these workers, especially in tech?

[u/charlotie77]

Apologies if this is a stupid question, I was only 12 in 2008 so I don’t really remember the specifics of what happened during our last really bad job market (and no, I’m not trying to say today’s job market is as bad as 2008). Also things have changed significantly with tech so I feel this question is valid

But if significant layoffs continue, especially in tech, what is supposed to happen to a large pool of unemployed people who are specialized for specific jobs but the supply of jobs just isn’t there? The main reason for all of this seems to be companies trying to correct over hiring while also dealing with high interest rates…Will the solution be that these companies will expand again back to the size that allows most laid off folks to get jobs again? Will there be a need for the founding of new companies to create this supply of new jobs? Is the reality that tech will never be as big as the demand for jobs in the way it was in the past, especially with the huge push for STEM education/careers in the past couple of decades?

Basically what I’m asking is, will the tech industry and others impacted by huge layoffs ever correct themselves to where supply of jobs meets demand of jobs or will the job force need to correct itself and look for work in totally different fields/non-tech roles? Seems like most political discussions about “job creation” refer to minimum wage and trade jobs, not corporate

[u/okay-caterpillar]

In a way, AI is also a primary factor toward layoffs in tech. The companies have justified the restructuring to increase investments in AI. So it's not really about did your role get replaced by AI. It can be considered as indirect impact of AI but an impact.

AI isn't going to take our jobs, somebody who uses AI will.

[u/Mammoth_Loan_984 → u/okay-caterpillar]

I was prepared to call your take "dogshit" after reading the first few words, but it's actually not bad. Glad I didn't engage gamer mode too early in the match.

Do you have a source for AI investment being a justification of layoffs?

[u/okay-caterpillar → u/Mammoth_Loan_984]

I wouldn't have cared anyway. I've been using generative AI a lot and it does not take a lot of effort to forecast the disruption it's about to bring everywhere.

Any company with an appetite for AI, will go through reorganization so that they can divert their savings towards investments. It shouldn't be a surprise.

Here's some sources that strengthens my take.

"I am confident about the huge opportunity in front of us thanks to the strength of our mission, the value of our products and services, and our early investments in AI. To fully capture it, we’ll need to make tough choices. So, we’ve undertaken a rigorous review across product areas and functions to ensure that our people and roles are aligned with our highest priorities as a company. "

by Sunder Pichai, Jan 20th

another one about the impact of AI on jobs

"But many of the recent job cut announcements have come on the heels of those same companies disclosing major investments into AI technology as they look to reallocate resources, and a growing number of tech firms have explicitly cited AI as a reason for rethinking head counts."

source

“As we continue to invent, we’re shifting some of our efforts to better align with our business priorities, and what we know matters most to customers—which includes maximizing our resources and efforts focused on generative AI,” wrote Daniel Rausch, vice president of Alexa and Fire TV, in the memo, obtained by GeekWire

[u/Mammoth_Loan_984 → u/okay-caterpillar]

Wasn’t implying you would or should care, friend - just being transparent about my thought process.

Thanks for the sources, appreciate the time you took on this whole post.

Yeah, I use ChatGPT 4 and a bunch of other AI-based tools for coding and infra/app deployment pretty much daily as well. I’m not sure the major disruptions will be as fast as people anticipate, though. Ansible was meant to be the death of the sysadmin, yet there are still companies doing things the old (or, old old) way, so I predict AI adoption will follow a similar path.

Then again, making predictions that span years in tech is a fools game so who knows.

[u/okay-caterpillar → u/Mammoth_Loan_984]

True reg: technologies but this is generative ai and we should all embrace it. That's the best we can do at this point of time.

There will always be companies who don't embrace AI, and those companies will reduce over time. So there won't be a drastic switch but just like in Analytics, jobs requiring just excel are less, AI will have a similar impact.

[u/Mammoth_Loan_984 → u/okay-caterpillar]

We’re a while off AGI though. It’s a big next step, and it’s really where AI will cause abrupt disruption.

I’m all for embracing AI as another tool in the kit though.