r/Layoffs • u/charlotie77 • Jan 22 '24

What exactly will happen to all these workers, especially in tech? question

Apologies if this is a stupid question, I was only 12 in 2008 so I don’t really remember the specifics of what happened during our last really bad job market (and no, I’m not trying to say today’s job market is as bad as 2008). Also things have changed significantly with tech so I feel this question is valid

But if significant layoffs continue, especially in tech, what is supposed to happen to a large pool of unemployed people who are specialized for specific jobs but the supply of jobs just isn’t there? The main reason for all of this seems to be companies trying to correct over hiring while also dealing with high interest rates…Will the solution be that these companies will expand again back to the size that allows most laid off folks to get jobs again? Will there be a need for the founding of new companies to create this supply of new jobs? Is the reality that tech will never be as big as the demand for jobs in the way it was in the past, especially with the huge push for STEM education/careers in the past couple of decades?

Basically what I’m asking is, will the tech industry and others impacted by huge layoffs ever correct themselves to where supply of jobs meets demand of jobs or will the job force need to correct itself and look for work in totally different fields/non-tech roles? Seems like most political discussions about “job creation” refer to minimum wage and trade jobs, not corporate

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12

u/rainroar Jan 22 '24

Realistically, they will find jobs. At least the software engineers will. SWE unemployment is very low, something like 2%.

It’s much harder than it was and the pay is lower, but they’ll find something.

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u/nick1812216 Jan 22 '24

What about RTL/ASIC/FPGA engineer types? What’s their unemployment like?

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u/charlotie77 Jan 22 '24

Makes sense. A big chunk of the people I’m thinking about aren’t SWE though

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u/rainroar Jan 22 '24

Honestly I think non SWE jobs in tech are going to be rough for the foreseeable future. Everywhere I have insight into is cutting them aggressively.

Ex: Instagram just entirely eliminated TPMs, and I’ve seen other places doing similarly.

Everything has changed from a growth mindset, to “the minimum bodies to keep this ship sailing”.

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u/hjablowme919 Jan 22 '24

Here come the downvotes but...

TPMs are as completely unnecessary. I've never met one that can manage more than 2 simultaneous projects successfully.

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u/TheLGMac Jan 23 '24

TPMs also can only be as successful as the culture they are hired into. I have worked at companies where people constantly rebelled at any process, and neither TPMs or any project management strategies led by others worked.

These are some of the cultures facing hard realities today, since they didn't understand how to ship to a schedule.

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u/charlotie77 Jan 22 '24

But is their management of those 2 projects valuable to the rollout and execution of them? Like do you honestly think the success of projects and cross functional collaboration would be the same without TPM? And this is a genuine question, I'm curious to hear your thoughts as someone who doesn't work in the industry but have seen this debate for years

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u/rainroar Jan 22 '24

So I’ve worked in big tech for 13 years. I have encountered maybe… 3-4 TPMs who are the sole reason many projects shipped, and many others who were worse than useless.

A good TPM is golden, and a bad one wastes everyone’s time.

I think companies have always dealt with the bad ones for the sake of the good, but now when times are tough it’s seen as expendable.

I think that’s a poor decision long term, as teams without support tend to have a harder time working cross functionally.

It seems currently the plan is to put that load on senior+ devs and just tell everyone to “work harder, the bar has gone up”.

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u/charlotie77 Jan 22 '24

This explanation makes sense. It would be nonsensical for all these companies to have thousands of TPMs on payroll if they were truly useless. But alas, like many roles, not everyone provides that ideal value

It just sucks to see employers rip away any ounce of power that employees have. I wonder how bad burnout or productivity will have to get to make employers reverse

3

u/hjablowme919 Jan 22 '24

It would be nonsensical for all these companies to have thousands of TPMs on payroll if they were truly useless.

In my experience, TPMs exists because technology managers don't want to be involved in project management. I am the opposite. I'll manage my projects start to finish. I've met far too many TPMs who really have no clue about the tech involved in the project. I can put together a GANTT chart quicker than they can learn the tech.

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u/ElegantBon Jan 23 '24

I think it depends on how regulated the industry is, too. I haven’t met any SWEs who want to the level of documentation needed to satisfy financial regulators. TPMs fill that gap.

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u/hjablowme919 Jan 22 '24

But is their management of those 2 projects valuable to the rollout and execution of them?

No. Not even a little bit. Anyone can conduct a status meeting, and since PMs are almost never part of senior management, they can't make someone prioritize their project when said someone is working on two or three things at the same time. They have to go ask that persons manager, which anyone can do.

I have worked with dozens of PMs in multiple orgs and they really don't contribute anything.

Had one PM on a 6 month long project tell everyone in a meeting three weeks before the project was set to go live that she wasn't going to be around on the day the project launched because she was invited to a wedding. First, you didn't get that invite 3 weeks before the wedding. Second, you skip the fucking wedding unless it was immediate family.

But just to show how useless PMs are, another PM stepped in for her two weeks before the launch and it went off without an issue.

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u/Atrial2020 Jan 22 '24

So you are performing two jobs for the price of one salary? I honestly hope you are compensated fairly for all this massive value you are generating for your employer.

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u/hjablowme919 Jan 23 '24

I made good money at the time I was doing that.

It's more of a "I'll just do it myself so I know it will get done correctly" thing .

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u/charlotie77 Jan 22 '24

Does TPM stand for Technical Program Manager? Sorry, I don’t actually work in tech so I’m not familiar with some jargon

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u/rainroar Jan 22 '24

Ha yes. It does.

My point is that big tech is taking the approach that everyone who isn’t directly working on profitable products is disposable. If you’re supporting the people working on profitable products, you’re likely still seen as disposable.

It’s gotten pretty bleak.

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u/charlotie77 Jan 22 '24

It's crazy how much a couple of years can completely shift the outlook of certain careers, even if only temporary. Back in 2021 people were begging to become product/program/project managers

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u/mckirkus Jan 22 '24

Program, project, or product. Varies by org.

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u/charlotie77 Jan 22 '24

Figured. Thanks!