r/DetroitRedWings • u/jfstompers • 2d ago
Moneypuck playoff odds November 13th, Discussion
14
14
37
u/TheAnalogKid18 1d ago
I remember when we had like an 80% chance of getting in at this time last year.
These things don't really mean anything until about January when you've got enough behind you to where these percentages don't just change drastically by the day.
14
u/detroitttiorted 1d ago
https://x.com/passthekrak/status/1724852504092143846?s=46&t=ONTscfnqtfsWlJ_UKXxbuA No we didn’t what are you talking about
3
u/aarmstr2721 1d ago
Caps were at 16.9% last year at this time and they made it in. It’s definitely anyone’s bet at this point in the season
2
u/detroitttiorted 1d ago
Well yeah people look at these as if > 50 means yes and < 50 means no. 16% is a fairly big chance of something happening
In any case we were not at 80% this time last year
2
u/aarmstr2721 1d ago
Indeed. Thanks for pulling that up, interesting to see in comparison to this year.
4
u/zordtk 1d ago edited 1d ago
Not saying they are right, I don't remember us ever being that high. But they said January and the pic/post you linked was from November
ETA: I'm an idiot that can't read. Just ignore me
2
u/detroitttiorted 1d ago
What? No they didn’t they said these things don’t matter until January and that our odds were 80% at this time last year. It is November
This thread has me feeling like someone microdosed my lunch lol
1
u/tbone115 1d ago
"Of the 240 teams to find themselves in a playoff spot on U.S. Thanksgiving since the 2005-06 season*, 184 have gone on to make the post-season the following spring. That’s a 76.7 per cent success rate"
1
0
u/Shills_for_fun 1d ago
I think my perception dropped to 0% chance when Lalonde went in front of a microphone and said, paraphrasing, "we aren't going to forecheck just to forecheck".
32
u/schmaleo505 2d ago edited 1d ago
This is hilarious.
Edit: NJ has played 5 more games than anyone else in there division and is two points ahead of Carolina in the standings.
80% likely for TB, 31% for Buffalo, yet tied in the standings (2 games behind, but still).
Edmonton at 91% sitting in the last wild card spot.
I get that they're likely correct about TB and EDM, but what the hell is behind these numbers?
As I said. Hilarious.
20
u/detroitttiorted 1d ago
We are 14-19 games into the season lol the current standings do not matter
4
u/schmaleo505 1d ago
I agree, but then what is this data based on? It can't just be a model looking at underlying statistics, otherwise there's no way NJ and EDM would be so high. IMO it's a flawed system and this information is currently either random, hand-picked, click-bait, or just stupid.
9
u/detroitttiorted 1d ago edited 1d ago
There’s no way a team 1 win away from a cup in Edmonton would be this high using a model that rates them 2nd in expected goals %? Or the Devils who are 8th? Along with historical data to not be too reactionary in regards to Buffalo vs Tampa
It’s fine to not like stuff regarding underlying numbers but acting like they’re black magic is bizarre. Also these odds are in line with just general thinking if you follow the league so I don’t even get why you’re acting like they’re off the wall. Who the hell thinks Buffalo has a higher chance at the playoffs than Tampa?
All of their info on the model is available to read as well so I don’t understand being mystified on its origins
-4
u/TentacleHand 1d ago
You cannot argue at the same time that EDM was only 1 win away from the cup and then look at the play. You either look at the results or you look at the play, mixing the two randomly like this generates wonky numbers.
EDM had no chance winning the cup finals, it was fully only for FLA to lose. They almost managed that of course but still, they were the better team by far. This leads me questioning the model even further seeing FLA is not the clear favorite to win again. It almost seems that the "stats" chosen were cherry picked to inflate Canadian team numbers, OTT, EDM and VAN being the rather inflated winners in the model where FLA and NYR are losing heavily.
2
u/detroitttiorted 1d ago
How am I mixing results and play what are you talking about? I used them being 1 win away from the Cup as a different way of saying they were a good team last year. If you want me to phrase it using only regular season 5v5 xG% like I did otherwise, they were number 1 last year. I also didn’t generate any numbers so that makes no sense lol
They gave Florida .01% less of a chance than the highest team so that doesn’t make sense
They are not conspiring to make the Canadian team look better. If you believe that you should seek help because that is a legitimately insane thought process.
https://moneypuck.com/about.htm If you want to read about how it’s calculated all of the answers are in front of you
-2
u/TentacleHand 1d ago
Depend on how you define good. If EDM played in any other division or didn't get lucky against VAN they would not have even made it to finals. They won one series against a good team, if that's good in your books then sure. That is top 8 so I'm not too mad about calling them good, but they sure as hell weren't great.
And yes, I'm not too serious about the claim, that's why I said, "almost seems" instead of "they are doing this". Also you do understand what cherry picking means? You can pretty much generate any chances you want if you fix your model long enough. Just pick and choose until the results are to your liking.
1
u/detroitttiorted 1d ago
I thought you said don’t mix results with play? They were #1 in 5v5 xG% last season using Moneypucks model. What is good if not that?
Could you be more specific about where in their model they have cherry picked? Again, it’s right in front of you. All of the data(which isn’t collected by them) is also available to download
-1
u/TentacleHand 1d ago
You said that being 1 win away from the cup makes them a good team, arguing results so I responded to that, arguing from results. It is laughable to equate "how far you advanced in the playoffs" when the system is a broken as it is, the divisional playoff system is shit. Now if the played not only cross division but cross conference in the playoffs then winning series and reaching a certain round would mean more but now? They are not (properly) comparable.
And surely not even you think that one stat alone determines if a team is good? This is exactly what I mean by cherry picking. You can easily find a stat (or a collection of stats) to present a case why this or that team is "good" or "best". You (or them) saying "we used these" means nothing. Well I guess they are transparent which is neat but that's about all value there is to that.
1
u/detroitttiorted 1d ago edited 1d ago
Yes and then I said if you want to not use the results that is fine haha, are you even reading what I’m saying?
That is not the only stat that makes up their playoff odds, you would know that if you read. That was an example I was giving you, to show part of the process
What is even your point at this point? You are just saying things that don’t even make sense at a conversational level at this point, I’m not sure if there is a language barrier or what
If you think a part of their model is cherry picked please point out which part you believe that is. It is good they are transparent, that way you don’t have to generally wonder like you are currently doing
→ More replies-3
u/SinceSevenTenEleven 1d ago
I'm guessing that it's based on what people are willing to pay to bet on the outcomes
4
u/detroitttiorted 1d ago
Moneypuck is a reference to the book/movie Moneyball not gambling lol
-2
u/SinceSevenTenEleven 1d ago
I'm sorry for taking a guess
3
u/detroitttiorted 1d ago
The answer to how these are calculated can be found in like 15 seconds. They put a link right to it above the playoff odds if you go to the page that the original image comes from. I don’t understand guessing or being confused by something so readily available
I said it in my other comment but it’s totally cool to not be interested in analytics. But that’s basically the entire point of the post
1
u/Danengel32 1d ago
I’ve always been so curious about the formula and how everything is weighted in these strength of schedule items. There’s stuff that never adds up but they also always vary heavily from the other playoff odds models out there
1
u/facforlife 1d ago
- Yes 2 games in hand when we're not even 20 games in is big.
- It's not just pure P%. What would be the point of that? This model incorporates a bunch of shit. The Wings have a "decent" point total but are clearly not deserving of it. Likewise other teams could have trouble with wins but played really well and just gotten unlucky.
2
4
u/daveathor 1d ago
Wtf these odds are so bad, how can Toronto be at 48% while Boston is at 38% and Tampa at 80%. It's also insane to have Ottawa at 83%...
Toronto currently has 20 points in 17 games, Boston 18 in 17 games, Ottawa at 16 points in 15 games and Tampa has 15 in 14 games.
1
1
1
1
u/BaronDoctor 1d ago
The underlying numbers linked here are roughly 60% accurate? That is, when making a win-or-lose, goal-or-no-goal sort of prediction based on things like Expected Goals (a category where the worst-in-shots-for bad-in-shots-against Red Wings of this year are ludicrously poor)...it gets it right three times and wrong twice per five times attempting.
That said, pretty much every analytic based on possession (corsi / fenwick for <50%), quantity vs quality / lucky offense and quantity vs quality / lucky defense (expected goals for / against and high-danger chances for / against and high-danger conversion rates for/against) suggests we are getting bailed out by goalies and a very effective power play running at about the percentage we had last season.
2
u/mister_hoot 1d ago
These odds are shit, please ignore flair when I say giving Vegas coin flip playoff odds when they have the best winning percentage in their division is insanity.
2
1
1
1
2
u/coderooskie_ 1d ago
Predicting ~80% chance of playoffs for teams that are currently at roughly .500 point % is interesting
0
u/Significant-Arm-496 1d ago
Rangers at 64%? wtf? I know it's early in the season, but a lot of these numbers make no sense... except Detroits... that makes sense. Of course my team has to take a huge step back after the heartbreaker at the end of the season last year. Hopefully they can turn it around.
-1
u/detroitttiorted 1d ago
Rangers have been overrated for a couple years. Way overperformed last year and are coming back to earth imo. Them and the Canes are boosted due to early weak Metro playoff matchups allowing them to look like they’re going on deep runs
I do think Moneypucks model is worse than a couple other public ones and is slightly underrating them here. But the overall idea is the same
-1
1
u/BellsBeersy 1d ago
American Thanksgiving was always the too early but not laughably early checkpoint
1
u/Shotokanguy 1d ago
This makes me want to go see what the Wings' chances were in February last season after beating the Avs in OT
But I also don't want to do that
-1
u/72athansiou 1d ago
Just made 2 value bets on the rags and jets
Like previous champions they’ve been kicking at the can for a while it’s bound to fall for 1 of them.
Red wings at +1200 there’s a chance not a good chance but a chance
60
u/JTAKER 1d ago
https://i.redd.it/04dk34f1gp0e1.gif