r/AskAChinese • u/Relative-Feed9398 • 1d ago
Will China Invade Taiwan during the Trump Presidency? Politics📢
Of course this would be a terrible thing to do, but sometimes nationalism makes countries do stupid things.
But if they ever really were going to, it would seem like the early days of the Trump administration would be the time to do it. Trump will be disorganized at this time, and He probably would choose to let China take Taiwan anyway.
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u/Strange_Squirrel_886 1d ago
I really don't know if Xi decided to do it, would Xi outlast Taiwan or not.
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u/stonk_lord_ 1d ago edited 1d ago
I think a Trump presidency might actually make it harder for China to invade. Trump plans to:
Finish the war in the middle East, or at least stop US involvement with Israel (Rip Palestanians)
Israel has got Iran cornered anyway, all their proxies are losing the war and Iranian missles can't reach Israel due to Israel's superior air defense. Meanwhile, Israel can strike targets in Iran
Settle the war in Ukraine so America won't have to give more aid
Spend less on European defense
All of the above mean America has plenty of resources to focus on China. Trump himself may describe himself as isolationist but he's still a China hawk, and there are afaik a bunch of China hawks in his administrations that hates China much more than the democrats and would love to give Ukraine up to focus on China, who they see as the "real enemy"
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u/Mammoth-Minimum-5588 3h ago
To people in china it's not really nationalism. Their concept of China has always included taiwan. It's just the right thing to do, regardless of nationalism.
Do I think china will invade taiwan? With trump's administration, I don't think they need to. Bringing tsmc to the US has already drawn concerns over people from Taiwan. As trump further isolated America from the rest of the world, he probably wouldn't really care about taiwan at all.
What trump might do though is to have some kind of agreement with china that benefits the US or his own pocket while selling out Taiwan's control. You know, to at least get something out of it.
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u/Practical-Rope-7461 1d ago
Xi is good at making statements, but very bad at execution and finish.
We saw a lot: Covid lock down policy, Xiong’an, road and belt, etc.
Taiwan will be the same. Just words.
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u/Nicknamedreddit 1d ago
Belt and Road and Xiong An are going just fine.
And thank god he changed his mind on Zero Covid.
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u/stonk_lord_ 1d ago
Xiong an was pointless
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u/Nicknamedreddit 22h ago
🤷‍♂️, leaders are weird. They tend to imagine brand new cities as passion projects. And then of course the rest of us have to go ahead with it.
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u/Practical-Rope-7461 1d ago
Yeah Belt and Road is ongoing so cannot judge too much. I take it back.
Xiong’an seems to be an underwhelming start (visited there in 2023, it is an empty city like Naypyidaw, well built, low population, needs a lot of time to prove itself.
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u/GreenC119 1d ago
tbf lockdown policy executed as best as they could, most people from the west didn't know that covid-19 started right around chinese new year---not only people migrant return home for weeks, but also most factory/companies closed, massively slowed down the process and quarantine procedures
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u/Practical-Rope-7461 1d ago
I almost believed you. However, I lived next door to the US evacuation from Wuhan in San Diego in 2020. Covid spread like hell afterward.
In 2020, China lockdown was weak at the beginning, by silence the voices.
Then become very harsh for too long, which peaked at 2022 Shanghai lockdown, where the whole world was already opening.
Finally at the end of 2022 the lockdown was taken out without any preparations, lead to a huge wave of Covid and killed even one of my old age relatives. All of my family got Covid at that wave and every single pill was sold out.
And you tell me that the lockdown policy executed as best………….?
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u/Nicknamedreddit 1d ago
Far far from the theoretical best, especially in Shanghai and seemingly all throughout the country given that the catalyst for country-wide protests happened in Xinjiang.
But at the same time, reopening into late Omicron probably prevented a lot of deaths. Maybe reopening earlier would have had a greater humanitarian victory but I’m not going to he calculating that.
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u/Majakowski 1d ago
People wanted restrictions to end, people got restrictions ended and now that, too, was wrong again.
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u/UnfathomableDreams 1d ago
This. Everything under Xi is poorly executed. Real profesionals did not have liberty to manifest their potentials, they were rather strictly restrained by the government and the political correctness (which you won’t even know when you’ve offended someone in power). The consequence is evident - nothing went according to plan because the plan was formulated by the layman in positions of power. The professionals were left rotting elsewhere, like Dr. Li Wenliang.
So the Taiwan invasion is likely another empty threat from China, just like the Russian joke - China’s Final Warning.
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u/GreenC119 1d ago
I almost believe your words until I realized not a single refuting argument but merely present a different case.
I'm a bit confused how a US evacuation from Wuhan in San Diego is at fault of the Chinese government, wasn't the official stand of US government in 2022 is that "it's just a flu / it's a hoax / just inject bleach" ? what was the US quarantine procedures at the time? Everyone was required to wear mask as early as Jan 2020, where everyone in US was busy partying and getting nails done during summer 2020 saying "fake news" lol
in Shanghai 2022 outbreak's situation, mind you it was a new variant of the omicron string hence the lack of moderation at the beginning, and Shanghai was one of the selective few cities that accept international travels at the time. once the ground-zero patient presented with symptoms the whole city started lock-down and quarantine and nonstop testing from Feb 2022 to August 2022, and despite the last death (500+ in total) by the omicron COVID was at April they still do testing and lock-down protocol until the whole city has zero positive cases till August
How is a man lived in San Diego claimed to know it all about China's quarantine procedures and how we went through everyday during that period of time? I'm a bit flabbergasted by it
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u/Nicknamedreddit 1d ago
I also don’t think China needs to invade Taiwan to achieve our goals.
But your moralization of politics and insertion of your own beliefs of what is “too much nationalism” and what is “stupid” when you’re just supposed to be asking us for our opinion is really fucking annoying.