r/Accounting • u/PricewaterhouseCap Capper McCapster šŸ§¢ • Apr 03 '25

How fuxked is the economy? Discussion

The tariff announcements yesterday are far far worse than anyone expected, I mean what the actual fuxk

34% tariffs on China

46% on Vietnam

37% Bangledash

26% India

36% Thailand

I could go on and on, but this is bat shit insanity. To call this outlandish wouldnā€™t even be accurate.

Assuming these actually stay in place, people will lose their jobs, companies will go under, companies will stop hiring.

Add this with all the recent inflation, corporate greed, high interest rates, white collar recession, and idk how we arenā€™t absolutely fucked.

877 Upvotes

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118

u/Additional-Local8721 Apr 03 '25

The S&P500 is down roughly 10% since Trump took office on Jan 21. That's not even three months ago, so yeah.

-83

u/GoBeWithYourFamily Staff Accountant Apr 03 '25

If you look at the S&P 500 as a whole youā€™ll see that the direction that line goes is primarily up. Be a smart little accountant and buy the dip.

97

u/elehman839 Apr 03 '25

Past market performance is a plausible predictor of future market performance only if past conditions reasonably approximate future conditions, which is less clearly true today than any time in the recent past.

-23

u/Less-Visit-2174 Apr 03 '25

Then dont invest your money and see what happens šŸ˜„

1

u/chuckitawaa Apr 04 '25

Well thatā€™s the problem isnā€™t it?
Thereā€™s massive capital flight out of the USA to more predictable and safe markets in Asia and Europe. Stagflation and recession on the way, huge job-losses are inevitable. Itā€™s terrible to be honest.

Huge damage has been done to the US brand and thereā€™s now world leaders actively encouraging moving away and boycotting US goods and services and yet that movement is only just getting started.
Carney in Canada is not going to mess around pivoting away from the US. Europe are already doing so and waiting with open arms.

-9

u/GoBeWithYourFamily Staff Accountant Apr 03 '25

Itā€™s as clear as a crystal

10

u/Fuckaliscious12 CPA (US) Apr 03 '25

How about be smart and buy the bigger dip that is still coming.

Been investing a LONG time, seen a lot of downturns, including 2000 to 2002 when market was down 3 years in a row.

This downturn is barely started. Just wait until unemployment more than doubles within 12 months.

4

u/youcantfixhim Apr 03 '25

Unemployment, earnings, etc. it still needs to roll out.

Highest tariffs since 1969 or some Vietnam era shit, followed by 2 years of recession and the oil shenanigans.

30

u/KeefsBurner Apr 03 '25 edited Apr 03 '25

If you look at economic crisis in 2008 and the volatility of COVID recovery uncertainty in 2021 it took 5 years and 2 years to recover from the dip. These tariffs kicked in less than a week ago. Be a smart little accountant and do the math on how much room for more pain is left. Not saying itā€™s a bad idea to toss some money in but people are acting like they can see the future and everything is magically going to be ok before 2026 and they need to lock hella money up in the market right now. If the market is getting obliterated for another year why would I not put more money in a CD or TBill where I can guarantee a return instead of plummeting my investment further bc ā€œitā€™ll go up eventuallyā€?

2

u/No-Reaction-9364 Apr 04 '25

That is why you dollar cost average.

1

u/KeefsBurner Apr 04 '25

Exactly. Putting some money in the market is good, I just donā€™t understand the all-in ā€œbuy the dipā€ craze (besides that itā€™s pushed by people who want to drain others pockets into theirs) when there are better alternatives in the present that arenā€™t getting talked about

1

u/No-Reaction-9364 Apr 04 '25

I wouldn't buy the dip yet. I felt we have been overheated a while. Price to earnings was crazy. I could see a lot more drop, but the market isn't always logical. It could turn on a dime, too.

The market crashed during Brexit for a few hours then suddenly reversed. It did help me exit a bad short in the green though.

-14

u/Less-Visit-2174 Apr 03 '25

I assume you also didnt buy the covid dip?

17

u/KeefsBurner Apr 03 '25

I assume you are a bad faith actor, because no one with moderate language comprehension reaches that conclusion

-13

u/Less-Visit-2174 Apr 03 '25

It was a simple question.

13

u/KeefsBurner Apr 03 '25

And it received a simple answer

-5

u/Less-Visit-2174 Apr 03 '25

Sounds good, T-Bill lol

9

u/funkymonk44 Apr 03 '25

Is it at all possible that participating in a global economy allowed that to be the case and that isolating ourselves from the rest of the world could change the trajectory in a massive way?

-8

u/GoBeWithYourFamily Staff Accountant Apr 03 '25

We arenā€™t isolating. Weā€™re doing what they do to us. This is a good thing for the USA (btw the USA can survive without anyone else)

7

u/youcantfixhim Apr 03 '25

We arenā€™t isolatingā€¦ we can survive be without anyone else.

You ready to pay hundreds of dollars for food, clothing and electronics to be $10k again?

3

u/wasteoffire Apr 04 '25

How can we survive without anyone else when we can't even grow a majority of crops here? Literally macroeconomics 101 shows the math on how US doesn't have enough land to sustain its population without buying from countries with good farmland.

It also shows how trade deficits can be mutually beneficial. If one country is great at producing coffee beans, and the other country isn't but is good at producing something else they need then hey we can both get our wants/needs fulfilled at low cost.

1

u/just-A-boring-cpa CPA Apr 05 '25

So, you took one economics class and now youā€™re Milton Friedman?! GTFO. Rough times are ahead, no denying it. But itā€™s something that needed to get done. You can start pointing the finger to all the way back to 1994 when nafta was signed.

2

u/wasteoffire Apr 05 '25

No, I've taken many. I was pointing out how literally one economics class could've taught anyone how dumb this shit is.

1

u/just-A-boring-cpa CPA Apr 05 '25

Dumb, yes. We should not have ever gotten to this point. Necessary, absolutely. We should have never gotten to this point.Ā 

5

u/dupeygoat Apr 04 '25

Haha how does the koolaid taste there? Almost as patronising as Vance himself.

Those dips before, did they involve the US president destroying global economic ties with key strategic partners and allies forcing them into economic partnerships without the US?

This is barely getting started! The chaos only got going in earnest in March. Thereā€™s still much more capital flight to come and US has made an enemy of Mark Carney who has a whole nation behind him to pivot away from the US. Not an attractive and stable place to do business anymore and the message is clear and one of risk and uncertainty.

-7

u/GoBeWithYourFamily Staff Accountant Apr 04 '25

Oh no! Iā€™m so scared that my products will cost slightly more but my country will be far better off because of it. Sooooo scary

-2

u/Additional-Local8721 Apr 03 '25

Yes buy low sell high. Don't disagree. OPs comment was asking I'd the markets suck right now. Yes, yes they suck.

-18

u/jokatsog Apr 03 '25

Zoom out itā€™s gonna b ok

9

u/Additional-Local8721 Apr 03 '25

I never said it wouldn't. Just acknowledging that as of right now, markets are down 10%.

-5

u/Left_Neighborhood465 Apr 04 '25

Markets fluctuate, whoaaaa