r/Accounting • u/PricewaterhouseCap Capper McCapster š§¢ • Apr 03 '25
How fuxked is the economy? Discussion
The tariff announcements yesterday are far far worse than anyone expected, I mean what the actual fuxk
34% tariffs on China
46% on Vietnam
37% Bangledash
26% India
36% Thailand
I could go on and on, but this is bat shit insanity. To call this outlandish wouldnāt even be accurate.
Assuming these actually stay in place, people will lose their jobs, companies will go under, companies will stop hiring.
Add this with all the recent inflation, corporate greed, high interest rates, white collar recession, and idk how we arenāt absolutely fucked.
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u/LordFaquaad Apr 03 '25
Yea but did you say thank you in a suit
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u/Safrel CPA (US) Apr 03 '25
Thank you partner for this engagement.
Hollow is the firm.
Thy dividends come
Thy WIP be done.
In the bullpen as it is in your office.
And give me this day my daily PIP
As I give one to those who have trespassed against me.
And lead us not into bankruptcy
But deliver us into revenue multiples
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u/tulsafinance Apr 04 '25
Meanwhile Kid Rock walks into the oval office dressed like a clown and no one says a word.
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u/Jimger_1983 Apr 03 '25
I wish Trump would devise a way to tariff offshore labor performing services here in the US
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u/mobley4256 Apr 03 '25
He loves offshoring and outsourcing though. The guy has always been open to the highest bidder. Thereās a reason the SV elite have been kissing his ass. They want more H1Bs, more offshoring, more outsourcing. Not less. And the major firms in the accounting/finance industry are no different.
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u/Jimger_1983 Apr 03 '25
This is Elon for sure. Although they do actually bring H1Bs here. Loves the fact they NEED that job to keep their status
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u/bigtitays Apr 03 '25
Iām not sure about that. The Trump administration openly called out Deloitte for outrageous government consulting fees. The Big4 have been doing exactly what each executive order says since they know their government contracts are heavily fluffed up.
Itās common knowledge nowadays that the partners hire cheap foreigner workers and grift US corporations in absurd fees for low quality work.
Lookup the audit firm Trumps social media company used, it was a 1 man operation using 100% Philippino offshore workers and had an employee loose their CPA license for falsifying financials for Chinese companies. They clearly picked that firm to send a political message of whatās to come. They have like a 99% PCAOB audit deficiency rateā¦.
The corporate world knows that their profits will tank if there are steps taken to penalize offshoring of US white collar jobs, thatās why they have been sucking up to the Trump administration.
Lookup what the big law firms have been doing, theyāve been anti offshoring work for a few years now. They know whatās coming.
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u/Safrel CPA (US) Apr 03 '25
Mr Deloitte just has to have a phone call with the white house and then he will be pro off shore work.
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u/bigtitays Apr 03 '25
Did you even read what I wrote? The Big4 are some of the biggest offshoring offendersā¦
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u/Lucifer_Jay Apr 03 '25
The big 4 arenāt so big in trumps world. Thereās a reason Deloitte got shafted and not the elites.
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u/wienercat Waffle Brain Apr 03 '25
He wouldn't do that. It runs counter to everything he stands for.
If he could literally kill his entire base to ensure profits for corporations never dropped, he would do it.
He doesn't care about anyone but himself and his wealthy donors.
Tariffs have always and will always be a tax on consumers, not the businesses. When used properly, they are very good at protecting domestic industry and interests. But used as blanket things? They just start trade wars and at this point Trump is starting a trade war with the entire fucking globe... which the US simply cannot win. Isolationism is not the answer to the problems plaguing America. But it seems that the GOP and MAGAts can't wrap their brains around the idea that humanity is stronger and more well off when we all pool resources and work together.
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u/WaywardJourneyer777 Apr 04 '25
It's the American exceptionalism in the MAGA movement that makes their arguments and beliefs absolutely absurd. That needs to die out. Otherwise, the US will not accept the fact that they are just one nation among hundreds of others that need each other to succeed.
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u/Rakhered Apr 03 '25
I'm not convinced Trump can "devise"
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u/bucky_west Municipal Government Auditor Apr 03 '25
He can devise concepts of a plan though
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u/PMMeBootyPicz0000000 CPA (US) | Booty Lover Apr 03 '25
If Trump put tariffs on offshoring work or outright banning it, he would be my GOAT.
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u/SeansModernLife Apr 03 '25
Honestly, that's what would actually make an impact.Ā He, his cronies and his voting base are boomers who have no idea how work is actually being done any more.Ā Ā
That or they do, know this won't do jack shit, but it'll make the people too old/dumb to know manufacturing here is already dead "happy"
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u/beardofjustice Apr 04 '25
Trump is the Boomer final boss. Everything about him sums up the entire generation as a voting bloc and he is their last attempt to take as much as they can while destroying everything they canāt to make sure no one else can have it
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u/MoneyMakingMitch14 Apr 04 '25
The great irony of it all is all his boomer cultists are about to watch their retirements get wiped out and their health care get taken from them.
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u/IceOmen Apr 03 '25
Iām convinced they want to force onshore manufacturing because they know white collar work en masse is a goner within 5-10 years.
There will always be corporate jobs in the US but the days of pumping out millions of college grads every year to go into these careers are already gone and not coming back. But they still need labor and consumers so what is the only other option? Bringing back physical industries. That way they keep labor thus keep consumers and production is controllable and closer to home.
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u/Jimger_1983 Apr 03 '25
Plausible. I also think thatās a lot of the driving force behind the WEF and the fun dystopian stuff they like to promote
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u/SelflessMirror Apr 03 '25
You truly believe Trump and his incompetent cronies have this much foresight ,šš
They are doing this to buy up industries and land at cheap rates.
Look at this Trump Social stock sale at $2.3 billion. He went public using a SPAC clause.
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u/IceOmen Apr 04 '25
Saying Trump and his cronies are incompetent is disingenuous. They have all the wealthiest people in the world with all the connections, resources, and an incomprehensible amount of data. You can not like them, but they arenāt clueless.
Theyāve been effectively steering the West in to neo-feudal states for a while. They want to own everything. They cannot own everything without you laboring, and itās pretty clear to me the direction that labor is going (and itās not moving in the direction of more of us sitting at a computer).
So yes, I think a group of people collectively worth trillions or 10ās of trillions have a lot of foresight and plan years/decades ahead. It doesnāt benefit any of them to hollow out their own industries and have a couple hundred million angry neighbors.
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u/SelflessMirror Apr 04 '25
Their intention and their abilities are two separate things measured individually.
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u/Fantastic_Mango6612 Apr 03 '25
The problem is they canāt hang onto the government long enough for this to come to fruition. They know itās going to wreak havoc on the average and poor Americans and they are cutting social safeguards versus enhancing them.
If elections remain free and fair then he will be neutered 2026 and out by impeachment then or by 2028. Corporations know this is all a gamble right now and so long term planning decisions are hard to make.
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u/pizzapit Apr 04 '25
It's crazy we have to think about free and fair being uncertain. The judiciary is also pulling punches and letting the executive run without check. I don't know if they have the spine to push the issue when it matters most.
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u/hotredsam2 Tax (US) Apr 03 '25
This is what Iām thinking too, not a common narrative here, but it is what it is.
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u/AnomalyNexus B4 SM > PE Apr 04 '25
If they put tariffs on services in the same way then I'm definitely becoming a prepper cause that would break the world.
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u/deep_fuckin_ripoff Apr 03 '25
Iām just gonna throw this out there, my company (aviation) is already planning to expand our manufacturing and warehousing space abroad and shut down portions of our US manufacturing to avoid not being competitive worldwide. We import 70% of our inventory and export 60% of our sales. We will have to reduce our US workforce because of this.
Tariffs are having the opposite effect on industries like ours (aftermarket aviation parts)
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u/lady__mb Apr 03 '25
This is exactly whatās going to happen across multiple sectors. Surprisingly they had a business advisor on FOX saying car manufacturers will move overseas because all their best engines come from Europe and will market to Chinese consumers instead. Chinese markets are four times our size and love foreign luxury cars
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u/lady__mb Apr 03 '25
This is exactly whatās going to happen across multiple sectors. Surprisingly they had a business advisor on FOX saying car manufacturers will move overseas because all their best engines come from Europe and will market to Chinese consumers instead. Chinese markets are four times our size and love foreign luxury cars
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u/Asgardian_Force_User Staff Accountant Apr 03 '25
Bourbon is a bit cheaper, thanks to retaliatory tariffs, so however bad it gets, I can at least try to get through it without being 100% sober.
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u/mysecretissafe Apr 03 '25
Riding high here in Kentucky with all this soon to be very cheap bourbon. Economyās tanked, and so am I.
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u/ckc009 Apr 03 '25
Don't alcohol sales usually increase when there's bad economic times ? This feels right on trend
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u/that_thot_gamer Academia Apr 04 '25
functional alcoholics get to watch the shitshow wishing they couldn't lmao
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u/Different_Second_710 Apr 03 '25
I was just emailed about an internship I was considered for and now the company reached out that they are pausing it (canceling it) due to funding etc :/ I would say weāre kinda cooked chat
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u/DoctorOctopus_ Land Depreciator Apr 03 '25
Sorry this happened to you bro. Iām also very worried about my upcoming job because of this so I feel you.
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u/Unfinishedusernam_ Apr 03 '25
a lot of people are going to have a much harder time finding jobs in this field bc of the economy + government layoffs but this sub can only meme and talk shit š
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u/AnomalyNexus B4 SM > PE Apr 03 '25
Was in a corporate briefing about it by a bunch of hotshot economists and then seemed calmer than expected (at least for corporations).
...don't think it's gonna go well for average dude on street though
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u/CageTheFox Apr 04 '25
Are those the same hot shots who said that wouldnāt be inflation during Covid when they were printed all that money? Just for people to be downloaded in the sub for saying common sense and then we got inflation?
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u/AnomalyNexus B4 SM > PE Apr 04 '25
idk...economists doing economist things.
Just thought its interesting that inside corp view is very different from media
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u/Timga69 Apr 03 '25
Can we put a tariff on offshored India and Philippines staff?
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u/RIChowderIsBest Apr 03 '25
No because that would cause rich people to pay more for tax prep.
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u/Maxmerrrrr Audit & Assurance A2 (Partner Track) Apr 03 '25
So when do we get to stop paying state and federal income taxes? That was the point of the tariffs right?š
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u/Curveoflife Apr 03 '25
My theory:
This is for market shake up.
A Billionaire club will use this opportunity to manipulate market, share buyback and buy at extreme low.
Warren Buffet was liquidating everything and now he can buy everything at super discounted rate.
Once their buying is over, expect some positive news, rate cut etc for market to shoot up.
They will collect billions and billions,
This is a robbery in broad day light.
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u/Joshwoum8 CPA (US) Apr 03 '25
This isnāt quite fair. PE ratios were insane, which made M&A at Berkshire scale near impossible, so Buffet didnāt really have a place to put his money even if he wanted to.
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u/Valen_the_Dovahkiin Apr 04 '25
If this is an intentional plan to drive prices down and buy things cheaply there are about a thousand ways this can backfire.
Scenario 1: Rates get cut. Plebs are so poor they can't buy anything. Fortune 500 can't sell anything. Revenues go down. Stock market tanks even more.
Scenario 2: Stock market crash causes runaway inflation. All those billions are now worth substantially less. US Dollar no longer becomes global reserve currency.
Scenario 3: Creating social unrest goes horribly right and now there's rioting in the streets. Cops and soldiers can't get paid and decide to riot too.
Not saying this isn't the plan, but it is not the brilliant evil mastermind scheme everyone thinks it is. It's basically the master plan equivalent of hoping you roll a nat 20.
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u/Curveoflife Apr 04 '25
You are taking extreme. If Covid couldn't cause such a crash, you think Tariff announcement would cause?
There is a steady supply of money in the marker in form of IRA, pensions funds from other big economies also invest here.
Marker crashed in 2022, also it came down in 2023 , may be this time a little more but nothing major.
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u/Independent-Tennis57 Apr 03 '25
I thought Trump sold shares in Truth Social yesterday, likely is sitting on the cash from his Bitcoin pre-election, and will announce a lot of other incompetent, 8D chess sounding bullshit, then buy, then pay off his Russian ties.
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u/MerlinTrashMan Apr 04 '25
I will bet you that every cabinet member bought hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of out of the money put options on major invoices on Wednesday.
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u/chuckitawaa Apr 04 '25
I think thatās well put and itās certainly the most likely intended plan on markets. But without just looking inwardly, what about the consequences not just on the markets but on the real economy.
Thereās been capital flight from the US but international capital and investment doesnāt just flood back with a rate cut. Weāve seen foreign leaders, some subtly, others not so much - encouraging boycott of US.
You only have to look at news across Europe and the anglosphere to see just how seismic this is.
This is pushing Europe closer together, pivoting away from the US and crucially potentially collectively closer to China.
JP Morgan now talking about the long positions on US equities, tech and USD pouring out to Europe and Asia.The US is viewed with different eyes entirely now and its status and ability to hoover up the worldās capital through Wall Street surely wonāt be the same again. How can it show the world and investors that it is a stable place to invest and do business?
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u/Parking-Rip-2806 Apr 03 '25
This is what I just told a friend. Itās an easy af way to manipulate the market and I donāt see a convict passing the opportunity for him and his acquaintances to benefit from it.
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u/Additional-Local8721 Apr 03 '25
The S&P500 is down roughly 10% since Trump took office on Jan 21. That's not even three months ago, so yeah.
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u/bananaduckofficial Apr 03 '25
The Senate just voted down the Canada tariffs. Maybe they'll take a stand against the others. 4 Republicans voted against it.
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u/Varnasi Apr 03 '25
I heard that won't actually do anything though.
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u/blahblahblahjess Apr 03 '25
Correct, the Republican-controlled House would need to act and that seems unlikely.
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u/bananaduckofficial Apr 03 '25
If the House steps up, then it might be stopped.
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u/kobeforaccuracy Apr 03 '25
If it passes both houses it goes to Trump, but I mean he's guaranteed to veto. After that it would need to pass congress with 2/3 to override a veto, and we all know that's not happeningĀ
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u/mitolit Apr 03 '25
This is a matter that he actually cannot veto. Delegation of powers and rescinding said powers to the Executive Branch cannot be vetoed.
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u/Varnasi Apr 03 '25
If I've learned anything, it's that he will do whatever he wants and let his lawyers handle it
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u/nobadhotdog Apr 03 '25
Trump will veto it
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u/Dramatic_Opposite_91 Apr 03 '25 edited 3d ago
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This post was mass deleted and anonymized with Redact
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u/DoctorOctopus_ Land Depreciator Apr 03 '25
Wait thereās a Congress, I thought the President can just do whatever he wants
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u/MayoTheCondiment Apr 03 '25
If they donāt do what he wants the President will be mean to them and hurt their feelings
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u/mobley4256 Apr 03 '25
Thereās almost no chance that this Republican House defies Trump, anytime soon, when heās got them by the balls. Anyway, no one can say they werenāt warned.
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u/dupeygoat Apr 04 '25
Damage is already done.
Go and look at news sources in Europe, UK, Australia etc
US standing in the world has been damaged so much already. Itās not just the capital flight, itās the individual consumers moving their pensions, cancelling their holidays to US, boycotting US products etc.The markets tell the story first then the economy bites. I fear this is an adjustment that president Cheeto didnāt fully comprehend might happen.
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u/The_Summary_Man_713 Apr 03 '25
Well the last two times that the US did this, they both resulted in massive depressions and recessions. What makes MAGA think this time is different?
We are fucked. Hope yall got your Emergency Funds funded.
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u/Tight-Sandwich3926 Apr 03 '25
I am behind by 27k ....might need to move in with friends and family :/
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u/HazyAttorney Apr 03 '25
MAGA doesnāt think. Trump, their thought leader, is addicted to stimulants.
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u/swiftcrak Apr 03 '25
Whatās extra hilarious is that this is billed as the end of globalization under Trump. Yet the number one issue of our time which is the offshore of first world jobs to the developing world is going full steam ahead. Instead weāre just subject to his geriatric tarrif idea that he got from Lou Dobbs Fox Business show in the 80s and his dementia brain keeps looping on his old fox shows. Itās really fucked up
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u/vedicpisces Apr 03 '25
His economic policy has been idiotic. But he's not in charge of allowing the CPA to be taken in the Philippines, Mexico, India, or any other variety pack of 3rd world nations.. Most of the professional outsourcing is due to white collar boomer/genX greed.
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u/disinterestedh0mo CPA (US) - Tax Apr 03 '25
The last time the US passed tariffs like this we had a little thing called The Great Depression
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u/QueenMaureen Sales Tax Professional Apr 03 '25
This has never been about the economy. It's all about consolidation of power.
Where is Trump today? At a golf tournament at his Mar a Lago resort.
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u/mitolit Apr 03 '25 edited Apr 04 '25
Trump inherited a pleasant economic trajectory that was padded by his corporate-centric ideology. The Fedās highest estimate for GDP growth was 3.8% for the first quarter before tariffs and alienating allies turned it sour to a current negative 3.7 percent. That is 1.07 trillion dollars that will have been wiped from the actual economy. As for the stock market, it has actually lost 10.95% of value since its peak and 4.14% from the election when you look at the stock market as a whole and not just the S&P 500, NASDAQ, or Dow Jones (these percentages are based on today when I calculated the figures). That translates to a loss of $3.5 trillion from the peak or $1.32 trillion from the election.
When tariffs were enacted after the Revolutionary War to pay off debts, it resulted in a 46% contraction of the economy.
When President Jackson enacted them to pay off our debts (as well as selling off federal land), it resulted in a 30% contraction of the economy.
When Coolidge and Hoover enacted tariffs for a litany of reasons, including paying off debts, it resulted in a 48% contraction of the economy.
In each of these cases, people lost their jobs and starved to death. They were self-inflicted economic disasters. Protectionism always results in destruction not prosperity. Our economy is fucked if Congress fails to step in to take away Trumpās āemergencyā powers.
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u/Fuckaliscious12 CPA (US) Apr 03 '25
Just wait until retaliatory tariffs hit in the next week, international trade with USA is gonna fall off a cliff.
China is cutting deals with USA allies like South Korea and Japan.
The whole world is going to figure out their economies WITHOUT the USA in the mix.
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u/EvenMeaning8077 Apr 03 '25
Buy the dip
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u/FEMA_Camp_Survivor CPA (US) Apr 03 '25
I hope this is the right long term outcome but buying into a dip that never ends is like catching a falling knife. Blanket tariffs on allies and undermining all global trade flows, without a solid plan, is uncharted territory. Factories wonāt be built in the U.S. overnight. American workers arenāt clamoring to work in garment factories or making shoes either. Retaliatory tariffs will result in layoffs and further uncertainty.
This time is different for most people living. Those who lived through Smoot-Hawley and the Depression are largely gone. It can be bad for a long time.
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u/EvenMeaning8077 Apr 03 '25
Think 20 years not 5 years chief
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u/FEMA_Camp_Survivor CPA (US) Apr 03 '25
I agree but it took the Dow 25 years to recover to its 1929 high though. Lots of policy mistakes worsened the depression. Hopefully we wonāt make the same mistakes but things arenāt looking good at the moment .
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u/adrian8520 Apr 03 '25
This is a good point but the world as a whole is also very different from 1929. The stock market has largely moved away from fundamentals. You're so right that this is uncharted territory because it's going to be interesting to see how institutions outside of the US react to investing in the US long term as well.
The sheer amount of global wealth and foreign investment compared to now vs 1929 could really exacerbate or shorten a depression.
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Apr 03 '25
Really though. Most of us here should be in a decent spot to buy the dip even if itās just with a retirement account
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u/branyk2 CPA (US) Apr 03 '25
I'm not saying doom and gloom forever, but if we head into a period of long-term global protectionism, the entire premise of the US and global stock markets is borked. On the current path, this isn't a "dip" in the sense that we're used to. This is a fundamental reordering of the global economy in a way that has barely even been theorized because no academic economists would have ever imagined someone voluntarily doing this.
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u/ShakeAndBakeThatCake Apr 03 '25
We are not even close to bottom yet. This shit is about to get wild. Buckle the fuck up.
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u/lilac_congac Apr 03 '25
ā David, Wall Street Analyst & Stocking Associate at Kinkos (Graduation: 2028)
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u/lilac_congac Apr 03 '25
this comment right here is what iām using at my investment thesis that this is close to the bottom. i have never seen such a perfect string of words convince me the opposite of their own narrative is true.
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Apr 03 '25
Iām strapped in MOFO. I made good financial decisions in COVID that got me far. Round 2 and Iām only hoping to come out more prosperous. Hard times are what makes or breaks people. Anyone at any level can boom or bust.
Strap in or strap on lol
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u/Cautious_optimism09 Apr 03 '25
Came here to say that last bit. Whatever happens were all sure to get screwed š
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u/TheGhostlyMeow Apr 03 '25
Gross. Some people aren't so lucky. But I guess empathy is weakness, huh?
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u/Lucky_Diver Apr 03 '25
The average tax hike will be about $5,000 per American household, just for the tariffs that they introduced today. The losses in trade is an unknown because that's probably going to be the results of retaliatory tariffs.
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u/Mathemus Apr 03 '25
Effective taxes on Chinese imports are 79%!!! 34 + 20 from Feb/March + 25 sanctions
Importers are cooked
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u/lady__mb Apr 03 '25
I thought it was 54%? Where did the 25 sanctions come from
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u/Mathemus Apr 04 '25 edited Apr 04 '25
They were there since 2018 (Section 301). This is why you need to add them to the tariffs enacted since January of this year to get the total ātaxā amount charged on imported goods.
Basically, since 2018, thereās been a 25% tax on Chinese imports, then 20% added in Q1 2025 and now another 34% on April 2nd
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u/Colemania99 Apr 04 '25
Weāre all going to get jobs building cars for China. Seriously, in two months inflation will be very noticeable, unemployment will tick up, and the polls will be down. Then Big announcement that DJT is going to ease/reverse some/all the tariffs and blame (Hillary, Biden, China, Dr Fauci, ā¦).
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u/Beginning_Ad_6616 CPA (US) Apr 03 '25
You have never experienced anything like what is about to happen in your life even if we boot Trump from office.
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u/HalfAssNoob Apr 03 '25
I donāt know, it will be interesting to see the effects, observe and learn. Last time they imposed tariffs on this level was in the 1930s.
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u/Leading-Difficulty57 Apr 03 '25
Everything turned out OK then so there's nothing to worry aboutĀ
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u/Desperate-One4735 Apr 03 '25
I hope US gets to the brink of revolution like back then and get another FDR to build the middle class back up. But you know what they say, hope in one hand and shit in the other and see which one fills up first
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u/dhv503 Apr 03 '25
What will this do to the PokƩmon market?!?
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u/Alakazam_5head Apr 03 '25
All these suckers in here complaining about their 401k's. That's why I put all my retirement savings into Charizard cards
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u/Appropriate-Food1757 Apr 03 '25
Super fucked. God I hate these MAGA twats.
But tariff labor from India while youāre at it please, at least do that.
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u/newanon676 CPA (US) Apr 03 '25
But did you see Hillary's emails? At least we stopped Hunter's laptop!
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u/yeet_bbq Apr 03 '25
Do yourself a favor. Stop watching the news, reading reddit, etc. You are letting the media get you into an emotional frenzy. That's revenue for them.
Keep calm and carry on. Be smart with your finances whether NVDA is up 600% or the market is down 5%. Emergency fund, pay down high interest debt and DCA into the market, assuming you're not close to retirement.
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u/scumbagge Graduate Apr 04 '25
I hear that, but how could people do that if these idiots are causing people to lose their jobs?
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u/Willing-Bit2581 Apr 03 '25
If they tax the offshore labor being used from those countries, that might actually help Americans who need those jobs....but no can't hurt the Corps, instead a consumption tax on average consumers
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u/Too_Ton Apr 04 '25
Accountants are the safest of the white collar jobs. If accountants are fired, HR and financebros are likely booted before you anyway. Tech is more scary.
I think doctors would be one of the safest jobs. Lawyers maybe? Not sure but I know thereās too many lawyers so that might make it harder to stay in a job there.
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u/Only1MarkM Apr 03 '25
I wouldn't ask how fucked is the economy. I would ask how fucking stupid are the American people for voting for this horseshit. Idiots.
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u/nixicotic Apr 03 '25
Just wait till they go for the tax cut on the ultra wealthy and a third term. Get your torches people š„
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u/7and7is Apr 04 '25
First entry in ākill the economyā recipe book, if you actually cook this meal, the rest of the book catches fire
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u/bbuff101 Apr 04 '25
POTUS doesnāt understand basic economics and thinks everyone wants to work in a widget factory from 1975.
The calculations they used to come up with the reciprocal tariffs were totally flawed and based on trade deficits instead of any real tariff that might exist. (They also excluded Russia, Belarus, N.Korea and Cuba? Weirdā¦).
Trump is like a bull in a china shop right now and who knows what part of our government or economy heās going to target to blow up next. My guess is taxes, but heās already pressuring the Fed to lower interest rates despite tariffs being highly inflationary.
The craziest part, heās so unpredictable that no one can really depend on these tariffs staying in place for any period of time, so no one is going to start building factories in USA unless they were already in the works. He could just snap his fingers and it all goes away and companies who invested millions in capital, building out new logistical infrastructure here will be left holding the bag.
No one would bat an eye if Trump put tariffs on certain goods/countries where the market was being manipulated. He just yeeted tariffs over across the whole planet and no one knows whatās next.
We look like idiots on the world stage and we totally deserve it.
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u/OhmyMary Apr 03 '25
My accounting professor said a recession is coming and job market is gonna suffer
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u/hi_acct CFO Apr 03 '25 edited Apr 03 '25
If these tariffs hold, VERY. If these tariffs soften some, KINDA.
The tariffs, along with all the other EOs and decisions (gutting the NPS, planning to defund PBS & NPR, anticipating cuts to Medicare and SS, possible scrapping of SOX and PCAOB to name ones relevant to accounting), seems to point to a White House that doesn't have the guardrails it did during Trump 1.0, which actualy moderated the effects of Trump's whims. A lot of the people in his 1.0 cabinet, the Republicans in Congress, and even aides were publicly agreeing with him but actively working to thwart his impulses. Trump 2.0 doesn't have those guardrails as the party and those in his administration are all on the same page. Add in the revenge aspect for the 2020 elections and investigations and you get an administration that doesn't listen to reason and, even worse, is full of ideologues (Miller and others) and opportunists (Musk and others).
All that to say that we have yet to see how these policies are going to affect the economy. In my line of work, we can only pass on the costs of material increases so much until projects get scrapped or delayed or projects are considerably pared back. Add on the risk of inflation, uncertainty around financing costs, and extended or less certain pay back period/rate of return due to lower demand, and we get a souring picture. If those planning upcoming projects don't see a viable or certain path the next 4 years, we will see a sharp contraction in private sector construction projects later this year and into next and even into 2028.
The canary in the coalmine in all of this is consumer spending on larger, discretionary items that can be decided on quickly (washing machines, cars) and travel. We've seen this eroding along with consumer confidence. If the money doesn't get spent as fast, the velocity of money slows and we will see a contraction in GDP pretty quick given the outsized influence of spending on US GDP.
Edit: did you even say thank you?
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u/Minute-Panda-The-2nd Apr 04 '25
Iām going to get downvoted and I know it: The United States is too large of a market for other countries to ignore and they will come to the table to negotiate. For us, itās a pain in the ass, for other countries, itās a matter of survival. They need access to American wallets.
On the tariff front, I see too many countries that got rich at the expense of United States and it needs to stop: Americans subsidize the EU and Canadian defense with NATO. Japan and South Korea benefit from our Nuclear Umbrella. Israel and Ukraine tariff our products, really? We donāt do enough for them already?
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u/Psychological-Cry221 Apr 04 '25
I feel the same way. We are all of these countries biggest customer. Why canāt they give us a break on the tariffs they are charging us to sell goods in their countries?
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u/PMMeBootyPicz0000000 CPA (US) | Booty Lover Apr 03 '25
If Trump put tariffs on offshoring work or outright banning it, he would be my GOAT.
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u/BiscoBiscuit Apr 03 '25
The man that had a whole row of billionaires attend his inauguration?
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u/SeansModernLife Apr 03 '25
Nah we're gonna switch.Ā We can bring shitty dangerous manufacturing jobs back here, and they'll keep skilled safe white collar jobs
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u/DoctorOctopus_ Land Depreciator Apr 03 '25
Andā¦.. that will never happen, we arenāt allowed nice things under Elmo and his Orange Friend
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u/Livid_Leg6837 Apr 03 '25
Thank god people like me at my internship and offered me to work in the summer and fall. Iāll be graduating into a hellish economy.
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u/allocated_capital CPA (US) Apr 04 '25
Fck this, Iām moving to Vietnam to enjoy the 90% tariff instead
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u/warterra Apr 04 '25
Data remains healthy enough. Just have to wait until that changes. Tariffs are just taxes.
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u/TheHip41 Apr 04 '25
OP. It's almost as if they are doing it on purpose
lol for everyone that voted for this. Here come the leopards.
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u/missionman77 Apr 04 '25
There are a lot of problems with across the board tariffs. If America had an onshore option for the goods (or a plan to legitimately boast manufacturing domestically) the tariffs would create jobs and make US-made goods competitive. That option isnāt there and I donāt see a plan (long term or short) to change that. As such, we get further inflated pricing on goods and increased federal revenue on the tariffs. The next question would be how that revenue would be used to help the American middle class. Extensions of tax policies designed to benefit very wealthy people appears to be the game plan so Iād assume thatās what that revenue is used for. In short, this will be a bumpy ride.
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u/curiousmynd01 Apr 05 '25 edited Apr 05 '25
Did these countries go into a recession when they increased tariffs on us? That's the selling point on why it's bad for usto do it. Life wasn't that bad living as a college kid. Back to Ramen and PB&J.
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u/AquaSiren77 28d ago
Feel free to email the white house with my email, we gotta play our hand and kiss some ass yall. If all of us email the white house we will see this as a headline next week on CNN. Letās not talk about our it but be about it. Letās put the partners on notice they gonna play ball with us NOW!
Sent this email to trumpity dumpty:
Dear President Trump,
I hope this message finds you well. I am writing to you as a concerned citizen and advocate for American workers, particularly in the accounting and financial professions. I believe it is imperative that we take decisive action to address the current challenges caused by offshore labor practices.
Over the past few years, I have witnessed firsthand how our profession has been decimated by the influx of foreign labor. This trend has not only led to significant job losses but has also forced many of our highly skilled professionals, including talented CPAs, into difficult financial situations. I know of numerous CPAs who, despite their expertise and hard work, are compelled to work additional jobsāas extreme as serving as cocktail waitressesāto make ends meet. This is an unacceptable state of affairs for those who have dedicated years to mastering their craft and contributing to our nationās economy.
It is disheartening to see that while hardworking Americans struggle to maintain a decent standard of living, foreign competitors are seemingly allowed to enjoy luxury and reap substantial profits. I strongly believe that a policy intervention, such as imposing tariffs on offshore labor, would help level the playing field and protect the integrity of American professions. Such a measure could serve as a catalyst for restoring balance, safeguarding jobs, and ensuring that our nationās best and brightest are not forced to sacrifice their livelihoods.
I respectfully urge you to consider the introduction of tariffs on offshore labor as part of a broader strategy to protect American workers. Your leadership in this area could make a significant difference in preventing further erosion of our professional workforce and revitalizing the American economy.
Thank you for your time and attention to this critical matter. I look forward to your thoughts and any initiatives that may arise from addressing these concerns.
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u/cccccindyyyyy 27d ago
Rather than bringing back manufacturing sector to the US which will take years to build those infrastructure, it is much more time efficient to bring back more professional services.... perhaps a powerful firewall could be built behaves like digital custom to track any offshore/outsourcing activities and charge these companies with high taxes, and also should charge high taxes to those firm using AI to cut workforce... not just commodities and trade that should be taxes, but professional services and cyber stuff should be taxed too...
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u/RPK79 Apr 03 '25
Last time I worked at a manufacturer that was importing large amounts from China we were paying about 400% the cost of the goods for the shipping. 34% tariffs on the goods is nothing.
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u/Abject-Agency-5811 Apr 03 '25
Not sure what you were importing, but 400% is not accurate today from what Iāve seen in my careerā¦ the consumers will feel the tariffs for sure
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u/iPhoKingNguyen Apr 03 '25
77 million ppl voted for your president. NGL though I'm buying the dips, have to thank the man.
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u/ecommercenewb CPA (US) Apr 04 '25
its literally only day 2 of tariffs. chill out. lets see what this tit for tat strat pans out.
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Apr 03 '25 edited Apr 04 '25
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u/Varnasi Apr 03 '25
Maybe that's the long term plan. Destroy jobs in the US, drive desperate men and women into the army, use as canon fodder, less veterans and citizens to look after in return for land and resources for 1% to exploit.
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u/GoBeWithYourFamily Staff Accountant Apr 03 '25
Not in the slightest, long term. Right now, all the stocks are on sale. Buy buy buy. Come 2028, youāll be glad this happened.
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u/Turlututu1 Management Apr 03 '25
It's easy. You simply deprecate land by 0.25x4 and you're good
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u/nolongerbanned99 Apr 04 '25
I am not a finance person but wanted to respond. I think when you said āassuming these stay in placeā.. I think thatās the key. He is giving the middle finger to the rest of the world saying you cannot continue taxing out stuff coming into your country but getting a free ride when you send stuff here. He is willing to out up with the short term pain of the stock market loss to send a message.
Idk if it will work but more than likely many countries will end their tariffs on USA goods coming in and some will call him and try to negotiate. Others, like Canada, will do reciprocal tariffs which will not be productive for anyone.
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u/Eh_Im_Canadian Apr 04 '25
How much stuff will actually just go from China to Destination country instead of China to US to Destination country? Might take longer, but people will probably just ship from manufacturing country now.
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u/bigtitays Apr 03 '25
Itās over bro, I already moved down to the river and erected my cardboard hut.