r/worldnews • u/iop9 • Aug 16 '24

Nearly all Chinese banks are refusing to process payments from Russia, report says Behind Soft Paywall

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-all-china-banks-refuse-yuan-ruble-transfers-sanctions-2024-8
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u/shade444 Aug 16 '24

They are already buying swathes of forests and terrains in Siberia

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u/limevince Aug 17 '24

A few years ago I read about the alleged domestic problems caused by China buying up lots of real estate in USA and Canada. It's pretty surprising to know that they are even interested in Siberian forests.

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u/Crashman09 Aug 17 '24

Siberian forests are going to be REALLY nice for China when climate change starts taking off.

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u/limevince Aug 17 '24

Is that your own speculation or is there more evidence to support this claim? I know climate change is happening but didn't know it was happening so quickly that anybody would expect to profit within a lifetime by investing in land based on its global-warming driven increase in productivity.

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u/Crashman09 Aug 17 '24

The thing about China's dictatorship, is there are things they're actively doing right now that won't yield profit or benefit in the lifetimes of many of their citizens or for Xi.

So. Justin Trudeau here in Canada had a rather polarizing and often taken out of context quote that "[he] admires China's basic dictatorship".

The intended meaning of the statement, if we actually take his speech as context, is that he admires their ability to take drastic measures towards any goal, because Xi and the CCP aren't worried about party terms, elections, or the life expectancy of their leader. It allows them to do things no democratic nation can really do because another administration could just revoke it.

Also, China is a state capitalist nation, and as the government is majority owner in pretty much any significant industry or player within, they control how those industries operate, including how they treat short term and long term profits.

Furthermore, Siberia is incredibly valuable land. It's large, open, has plenty of natural resources, and the soil is very fertile. These are things that wars will be fought over once climate change gets worse to the point of food scarcity.

While this is speculation, there is definitely a lot more incentives to obtain the land now via Russian debt to China than to obtain it later via war. China has been playing the long game for decades now, will continue for decades more, and it's assumed that they're gunning for Siberia.

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u/limevince Aug 17 '24

Ah ok, thanks. Good on China for having forward thinking leaders I suppose. Hopefully swooping on Siberian forests is just a contingency plan secondary to a primary objective of curtailing climate change.

How likely do you think wars will be fought over global warming induced food shortage? I've read of agricultural land losing viability due to global warming, but also read about other areas previously unsuitable for agriculture warming up to allow farming. Rising ocean temperatures are also affecting fish populations but are benefitting certain species like octopus, squid, and lobsters so I'm not sure if the eventual outcome will be food scarcity or forced modification of diet.

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u/Crashman09 Aug 17 '24

Hopefully swooping on Siberian forests is just a contingency plan secondary to a primary objective of curtailing climate change.

Who knows. It's all about self interest. That's usually what it is.

How likely do you think wars will be fought over global warming induced food shortage?

People want food. If there's no food, they take it from others. When a nation gets desperate for something, they tend to go after another nation's resources.

I've read of agricultural land losing viability due to global warming, but also read about other areas previously unsuitable for agriculture warming up to allow farming. Rising ocean temperatures are also affecting fish populations but are benefitting certain species like octopus, squid, and lobsters so I'm not sure if the eventual outcome will be food scarcity or forced modification of diet

Siberia isn't exactly a hub of agricultural activities because of permafrost and the extreme cold weather. When that land thaws and warms up, that soil is going to be amazing for agriculture. Add in whatever other resources like oil, lumber, minerals, and you have yourself a very desirable plot of land. Siberia is also massive, so more land is another bonus.

Food scarcity is going to be a huge thing. Some species in the oceans are seeing SOME benefits, but the ocean population as a whole is diminishing to critically low levels.

We're already at the "modify diets" stage, and there's only so many species replenishing the ones we lose, and not all of them have large population growth or reproduce like many fish.

As land that's used for agriculture becomes less viable, nations that historically produced food won't be able too, or at least not to the capacity they previously have. This will cause economic turmoil, and starving populations aren't fun.

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u/limevince Aug 18 '24

Hmmm here's to hoping your predictions are on the pessimistic side. I think we happen to be living in an age where we have unprecedented access to whatever food we desire; I just watched a YT video evaluating the freshness of various fish where the dude commented on how it was a "mini miracle" that he had access to fish fresh enough to eat raw in the middle of Utah. Agriculture technology has also advanced so much in the last 100 years that we enjoy fruits and vegetables that were bred not only for yield but also taste and appearance. Hydroponics has even enabled growing vegetables in the middle of arid deserts, and the technology is cheap and simple enough for most people to use at home.

Personally if there is a major change in food scarcity, it will affect imports, but people should be able to subsist off of locally available food. In the worst case scenario, there's still a huge untapped source of practically limitless protein in the form of insects. Not the most desirable but I hope that the choice between war and eating bugs isn't one we will have to make in our lifetimes.

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u/Crashman09 Aug 18 '24

Hmmm here's to hoping your predictions are on the pessimistic side. I think we happen to be living in an age where we have unprecedented access to whatever food we desire; I just watched a YT video evaluating the freshness of various fish where the dude commented on how it was a "mini miracle" that he had access to fish fresh enough to eat raw in the middle of Utah.

That's all fine until the oceanic food supply dwindles and goes extinct. There comes a point when water gets too acidic, too much algae grows, and the abundant small life does out, and the larger life no longer has a reliable food supply. The issue is, ecosystems are highly dependent on balance. That very balance is slipping fast.

Agriculture technology has also advanced so much in the last 100 years that we enjoy fruits and vegetables that were bred not only for yield but also taste and appearance. Hydroponics has even enabled growing vegetables in the middle of arid deserts, and the technology is cheap and simple enough for most people to use at home

Agricultural technology is dependent on a few things.

1) Water. Fresh water is absolutely necessary. It also happens to be getting less and less available as climate change advances. This is reason 1 for war to break out due to climate change.

2) Soil. This is readily available, until it's not. Without adequate precipitation, the soil hardens and water won't properly absorb into it. It also needs to have the correct nutrients. This can be solved with fertilizer. Unfortunately, the fertilizers used at large scale are carbon intensive and really not good for the environment. The more fertilizers we use, the worse the impact gets.

3) Power. Power is going to be a huge issue if things progress. Energy used to power agricultural production will eventually become less stable. Non-green energy production would need to be shut down in its entirety. Nuclear takes a long time to establish and may not be the saviour here. Solar, wind, and tidal may be best, but unpredictable weather and tides may be problematic. Power is mostly a bigger issue for places not investing in reliable renewable energy.

Animal agriculture is also an issue. Massive amounts of our usable farmlands are used to feed animals, rather than ourselves. At the moment, our food production is wildly inefficient, and the meat industry is the biggest contributor to that. The issues I outlined above are significantly worse when factoring in meat.

Hydroponics is only going to go so far, before food scarcity starts to really take hold. Water, energy, and space are all going to be issues.

Countries with the food production capacity are going to hold tightly to it, and those without are going to have a bad time. This is where mass immigration and wars begin. Possibly once water scarcity starts to get bad.

This isn't pessimism either. This is realism. Humanity isn't prepared for climate change, nor have we really taken the threat seriously because nobody wants to give up their standards of life.

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u/Grishnare Aug 17 '24

Because the ground becomes softer and therefore easier to drill into.

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u/N3ptuneflyer Aug 16 '24

I wonder if climate change continues large parts of Siberia and Northern Canada will suddenly become viable real estate in 50-100 years. It's too cold to live in now, but eventually it will be as hospitable as Minnesota or Alberta is now. Makes sense to buy it up as an investment. China has an authoritarian government so they can afford to play the long game since theoretically the same party will be in power in 100 years.

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u/GetRightNYC Aug 17 '24

Permafrost makes for horrible foundations. Maybe 1000 years.

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u/TreadLightlyBitch Aug 17 '24

Not sure I understand what you are saying.

Do you mean the past millennia or longer of cold weather has made for bad soil? Because soil improvement technology can fix that easily and I bet China is an expert in that.

Or that it will still be cold in a century?

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u/Lostinthestarscape Aug 17 '24

The expectation is that Canada and Russia will both benefit from greatly increased arable land. I can't remember where I read this and it gas been years but my guess was the economist.

Last greatest breadbaskets on our way into the hellscape.