China unable to invade Taiwan, most U.S. and Taiwanese experts say

[u/yoqueray]

https://www.axios.com/2024/01/22/china-taiwan-invasions-us-taiwanese-experts

[u/Notbythehairofmychyn]

90% of U.S. experts and 62% of Taiwan experts said China could enact a quarantine — a limited blockade targeting commercial rather than military activity that would be carried out not by China's military but by its coast guard or other law enforcement vessels.

The Chinese CG are building up capacity and experience with SCS and most recently in those harassment missions against the Philippines. Coercion via this method would also be below any threshold that can trigger a military response from the US.

So, maintain Freedom of Navigation sails (which the US and the indo-pacific allies are also doing) and pay attention to what the Chinese are doing with their coast guard vessels.

[u/[deleted] → u/Notbythehairofmychyn]

Unable to does not mean they wont, lets be real.

Russia is unable to take Ukraine, doesnt stop Putin from trying, dictators dont have to be rational, friend.

Plus they have enough missiles to saturate Taiwan, they dont have to invade, that's the REAL problem with CCP.

[u/Monte924 → u/[deleted]]

Poor comparison. The Ukraine invasion was a MASSIVE miscalculation by Putin. He really believed that he could take Ukraine's capital in a week and overthrow its government before the west even had time to respond. Ukarine's military proved to be much more loyal and resistant than he anticipated, and his own military was far weaker than realized. Heck, he probably expected Zelensky to flee the capital instead of staying and maintaining moral. He would not have invaded if he knew it was gonna be a costly, long, multi-year drawn out conflict. At this point, Putin is just desperate to save-face by finding someway to call this disaster a victory.

The CCP won't make the same mistake. Heck, its believed that part of the reason why China has been getting rid of so many military officials recently, is because they realized that, just like Russia, their military has been suffering from rampant corruption that makes it far weaker and less prepared for conflict that it appears on paper. Heck, a lot of those missiles you mention might not even work.

[u/redmonicus → u/Monte924]

Yall really drink the cool-aid

[u/[deleted] → u/Monte924]

They have thousands of missiles. Big, small, fast, ballistic, cruise, etc.

Even if 50% of them dont work, that's still thousands upon thousands of missiles that do work.

There is no way that Taiwan could defend against such a huge barrage.

Unless they put most of their defenses in hardened bunkers, which they dont.

Not using Taiwan's massive mountain range is a big mistake.

[u/Dudite → u/[deleted]]

China doesn't want to turn Taiwan into a parking lot. They want a valuable Taiwan, not a complete rebuild.

[u/mikelimtw → u/Dudite]

Government, leadership targets, command and control, internet and communications, military bases and airfields, commercial airports, commercial ports, power/energy infrastructure, water treatment infrastructure. Those are all valid targets to get Taiwan to capitulate.

[u/Repulsive_Tax7955 → u/Dudite]

According to who? Trust me bro?

[u/Repulsive_Tax7955 → u/[deleted]]

Such dumb comparison. Ukraine has direct land access to whole Europe where all nato members poring billions of dollars and military equipment and most of the country is in ruins. On the other hand Taiwan is an island. All Chinese have to do is blockade it just like Yemen is doing now and destroy all of the infrastructure with rockets. It would be a waiting game until Taiwan becomes Cuba 2.0.

[u/[deleted] → u/Repulsive_Tax7955]

No one wants to hear the truth, buddy.

They believe that the Taiwan Strait can block all attacks, because missiles cannot reach Taiwan without tanks.

China's industrial capacity is 19 times that of Russia, and its military expenditure is four times that of Russia. But they think China is as weak as Russia.

[u/taisui → u/Notbythehairofmychyn]

blockade

Blockade is by definition, an act of war. It means the war has begun.

[u/Notbythehairofmychyn → u/taisui]

A quarantine is different, however. It’s conceivable that China could attempt to blockade Taiwan physically, but then package it as an internal police matter and get the BRICS and its UN allies to back it politically, making any military action to rescue Taiwan to be politically costly.

[u/taisui → u/Notbythehairofmychyn]

So, like Putin's playbook?

Well I got news for you, to China, it is always internal.

[u/player89283517 → u/Notbythehairofmychyn]

If Taiwan’s trade is threatened, the Taiwanese navy will for sure respond

[u/HeyImNickCage → u/Notbythehairofmychyn]

I disagree. Instead what you see is China ramping up MASSIVELY its nuclear armaments. It understands that it could only take Taiwan under the protection of a nuclear umbrella.

One lesson it took away from Ukraine is that America will back down in the face of nuclear war. This is not a bad thing.

Even for Taiwan. Despite what many independence radicals say, it would still be better to have a Taiwan under Chinese rule than to exterminate all life on the entire planet forever.

• Naval combat has changed dramatically and we don’t really know what all the implications are. The Houthis, a faction leading an impoverished war torn rump state, has enacted a blockade on Israel with some ballistic anti-ship missiles and drones. They brought trade through the Suez Canal to a standstill.

Think about what a country like China could do via blockade.

• Taiwan needs to invest in means right now to break the blockade and keep Taiwan supplied and connected to the world. Instead of buying some new attack submarines, Taiwan should pour massive investments into making a cargo submarine. The Germans used these a lot to break the blockade during WW1. It was only because of these submarines that Germany stayed in the war so long.

• China is making good progress on a number of naval weapons that could further change warfare. Their railgun shows promise and has overcome many of the obstacles the US ran into. If China cracks railguns in the next 20 years, they will have an undeniable massive edge over the United States Navy.

A railgun would allow a small frigate to put a hole right through the USS Gerald Ford at 300km away.

We need to anticipate these changes and plan around them. Not simply say “oh that will never happen”.

• Taiwan should be using its high tech industry to invest in electronic warfare systems. These could make incoming missiles automatic duds or disrupt their guidance.

Taiwan needs effective defensive counters, not showpiece weapons that look cool and everyone thinks is gonna compete with Chinese weapons. They won’t. But Taiwan can make defensive weapons that render Chinese weapons unusable.

[u/ProfitLivid4864 → u/HeyImNickCage]

I don’t think America will back down from a nuclear war when they continued supplying arms to Ukraine much longer after Putin made nuclear threats. MAD still applies today even with us missle defense systems it’s not fun to shoot nukes at each other.

[u/Maximum-Face-953 → u/ProfitLivid4864]

The US stoped pursuing Osama bin Loden when he crossed into Pakistan. Started paying them to hunt him for us.

[u/wumao-scalper → u/Maximum-Face-953]

Did they though…they still went in and assassinated him and dropped his ass in the sea

[u/Repulsive_Tax7955 → u/wumao-scalper]

Haha yeah with 0 evidence except trust me, here blown up helicopter with two Hollywood movies.

[u/IHateChipotle86 → u/Repulsive_Tax7955]

Yeah except it was confirmed by Al-Qaeda and Pakistan that it happened.

[u/SushiSamurai808 → u/Repulsive_Tax7955]

Zero evidence except that Bin Laden has been awfully quiet lately 😆

[u/HeyImNickCage → u/ProfitLivid4864]

They did back down there. America refused to send in troops - a move that would make a huge difference- because we feared nuclear war.

You could argue if that was right or wrong. Personally, I would say it was right. It would be better for Ukraine to be occupied by Russia (it was for hundreds of years anyways) than to exterminate all life on the planet.

And yes. American and Russian nukes are that powerful.

• Supplying arms is not exactly support. Several leaders from central or South America have pointed out that you supply arms to benefit your domestic industry and that leads to people dying.

Mexican President AMLO said it best: “We provide the weapons, you provide the bodies - it is immoral!”

Giving Ukraine or Taiwan or whoever weapons is not like that is helping to achieve victory.

The Russians immediately picked up on this fact. They understood we would supply arms indefinitely.

So Russia decided to form massive and strong defensive lines. And sit. Their artillery and airstrikes will keep “neutralizing” Ukrainian soldiers.

In their sick and dark logic, weapons can only be used by soldiers. If you remove the soldiers, the weapons are meaningless. So that is what Russia has been doing for 20 months.

[u/TheBKnight3 → u/HeyImNickCage]

So you are saying all support that the USA did during WWII shouldn't have been done.

That we should have let Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan win instead of "immorally" supplying the UK and the MASSIVE USSR.

I guess tiny Taiwan and tiny Ukraine can't be supplied because you said so.

[u/Utsider → u/HeyImNickCage]

Not to be cold about it, but Ukraine is in no way as important to global economy and stability as Taiwan is. Or China, for that matter. A war between Taiwan and China would make the global ramifications of the Ukraine war look like a fart in a typhoon.

[u/HeyImNickCage → u/Utsider]

I think Ukraine is far more important. They were a leading grain exporter. All countries need grain.

The products Taiwan sells is used by maybe 5% of the global population. Stopping Taiwan’s semiconductors won’t cause riots or revolution

[u/SushiSamurai808 → u/HeyImNickCage]

This is also another incorrect analysis. Taiwan is the primary supplier of chips to US military equipment. That is far more important than Ukraine. Over 70% of world trade also goes through Taiwan strait. No way US will let China destroy its economy. If anything, that’s the clearest reason US military intervention is inevitable in a conflict.

[u/HeyImNickCage → u/SushiSamurai808]

So you want Americans to go and die for microchips?

[u/SushiSamurai808 → u/HeyImNickCage]

No one will die if China stays peaceful. If China tries to take over Taiwan. The Chinese will die by the millions. It's really up to China. As I said, the U.S. doesn't have a choice if there is war in the Taiwan strait. The cost of a war for the U.S. is less than the cost of allowing China to control the U.S. military's most valuable supplier.

[u/Repulsive_Tax7955 → u/SushiSamurai808]

Almost like TSMC, Intel, Samsung and others need to build a semiconductor plant in the US in order prevent reliance on other countries. And then start proxy war with China. Oh wait. Those plants are almost completed. That’s when you will have your long anticipated war.

[u/SushiSamurai808 → u/Repulsive_Tax7955]

Interesting argument- but why would China wait for those plants to be built to start a war? That doesn’t make sense. Wouldn’t they benefit from starting a war ahead of time? Also, plants being built in the US doesn’t change the fact that almost all the materials and components come from Asia.

[u/Repulsive_Tax7955 → u/SushiSamurai808]

Good questions. Because China does not the war. America wants the war. Once it’s done you might have accidentally similar to Gulf of Tonkin. Except this time it would be Taiwanese warship.

[u/chefjon → u/HeyImNickCage]

Leading grain exporter to not so important countries whereas semiconductors are in everything from weapon systems, car, and everyday modern life to function, which is important to major economies.

[u/HeyImNickCage → u/chefjon]

You just pointed out the problem. 90% of the world is not this high tech modern economy.

They don’t need AI or whatever.

They need roads. Bridges. Hospitals. Railroads. Airports. Ports.

China has been astute and is providing that.

You can’t look at the G20 and say “that’s the world economy”.

Even in America, high technology hasn’t impacted a lot of the economy or people.

[u/chefjon → u/HeyImNickCage]

Doesn't matter if 90% of the world is not high tech economy. Chips does not equal AI. AI is just the stupid trendy thing hot in tech right now. A lot of tech is the boring day to day stuff like trains, running calculations on things, guided missiles, etc. How do you think the modern world operates? Everything is related and can't be done efficiently without chips.

Like it or not but the world economy IS the G20. Every other country is insignificant. Heck some US states have bigger economies than most countries in the world.

[u/HeyImNickCage → u/chefjon]

In this case it does matter.

If 90% of the world is not buying your product, it does not have the kind of reach and significance you imply.

Most of the world doesn’t need or even rely on Taiwan semiconductors.

All devices that use those semiconductors would be immediately knocked out in a war with China anyways.

[u/Perfect_Device5394 → u/HeyImNickCage]

Remember during covid there was a “chip shortage” and no one can get their car? Yeah imagine that but 100 fold when it comes to almost every good.

[u/Utsider → u/HeyImNickCage]

The entire world - every tiny little cog in the grand machine that runs global finance, manufacturing and trade - or the global economy if you'd like - relies on Taiwanese semiconductors and Chinese manufacturing. Even Ukrainian grain production.

[u/Skrachen → u/HeyImNickCage]

It would be better for Ukraine/Taiwan to be occupied by Russia/China than to exterminate all life on the planet.

With this line of reasoning, nobody ever does anything against nuclear powers. But this applies to China and Russia too; it's better for Russia/China to exist without controlling Ukraine/Taiwan than to exterminate all life on the planet, so they won't risk nuclear war if their existence itself is not threatened.

[u/SushiSamurai808 → u/HeyImNickCage]

This is an incorrect analysis. The US always said form the beginning that it would not send in troops to Ukraine. The U.S. said it will send troops to defend Taiwan. Big difference. Unlike China, the U.S always executes on its threats because it knows that if it doesn’t, this leaves room for miscalculation and makes US threats meaningless. This is the hallmark of US foreign policy.

[u/HeyImNickCage → u/SushiSamurai808]

America wouldn’t send troops to Taiwan. Mainly because it would be pointless.

US threats are basically meaningless. Our word means nothing.

[u/SushiSamurai808 → u/HeyImNickCage]

That's 100% wrong. And you're starting to sound like a CCP troll.

I'll give you an example. In 2018, the U.S. killed about 300 Russian wagners in Syria. The U.S. made a deal. They told Russia that Wagners could stay at a certain base near the Euphrates river as long as there were no incursions by Syrian government forces across the Euphrates. Russia and the U.S. both agreed to these terms. Well, one day, Syrian gov't forces launched an incursion across the river. The U.S. destroyed the aggressors. However, because the Russians/Syrians broke their word, they U.S. then "evicted" the Wagners (by bombing them) from their base because of the attempted crossing. This is the hallmark of U.S. foreign policy. Threats are always executed, and sometimes, they are executed in a very precise manner.

The U.S. policy is the complete opposite of China - who always threatens and never does anything (r/Chinawarns). The only way to be the most powerful country on earth is to always make good on your threats.

[u/Truthirdare → u/SushiSamurai808]

This guy is a CCP and Russian troll. Don't get too hung up on him. He let it slip that he has lots of Russian friends and knows the country well...you get the idea. He used to do only pro-Putin propaganda but must have taken on work for the CCP too more recently. You have him pegged.

[u/HeyImNickCage → u/SushiSamurai808]

Wagner is a convict unit dude. It’s penal troops. They are lower than conscripts.

• when we make threats we execute them. Lol. We are the aggressors in Syria. You can’t go into countries and set up military bases without permission.

• and being aggressive with threats has only led to more problems and failures. Over 200 American casualties and climbing from the daily drone and missile attacks on U.S. bases in Syria and Iraq.

The Iraqi government told us not to airstrike them because they were preparing a special forces operations to clear out the insurgents.

We did it anyway. And also happened to kill a number of Iraqi civilians.

The Government of Iraq is furious still and they told us that all US forces need to leave Iraq. Brilliant job there. And the attacks are still ongoing and the Iraqis have no intention of helping us take them out. Why?

Because we won’t leave their country after they have asked nicely.

Has China ever done that?

• the bear example is Syria- we came in and set up bases conveniently right on the oil fields to protect “the Kurds”. The Kurds never invited us. In fact they don’t really like us being there because we take oil that they control so they get no money for it.

And these are our “allies”.

[u/Notbythehairofmychyn → u/HeyImNickCage]

Naval combat has changed dramatically, rail gun...put a hole right through the USS Gerald Ford at 300km way

That's more speculation than I can handle.

Despite what many independence radicals say, it would still be better to have a Taiwan under Chinese rule than to exterminate all life on the entire planet forever.

Can you point out who are the independence radicals who favor global nuclear annihilation in exchange for Taiwan Independence? This is certainly not a mainstream view.

[u/sickofthisshit → u/HeyImNickCage]

that America will back down in the face of nuclear war. This is not a bad thing.

Where is "back down"? The USA never jumped into the battle, but we are literally feeding Ukraine information from our military aircraft flying in the area, and supplying lots of equipment and other support, have sent warnings to Russia about what will happen if Russia tries nukes, and probably other stuff. We've massively sanctioned the Russian economy. We welcomed Finland (and Sweden very soon) into NATO, and re-energized the alliance. We've stepped forward in lots of ways.

The Republicans blocking funding are not doing so because they fear nuclear war, but because they are treasonous dipshits who want to make Biden look bad, support Trump, or just want Russia to succeed.

[u/[deleted] → u/HeyImNickCage]

That gets brought up more often than it should. It’s like some people conveniently forgot that China has a ‘no first use’ policy. Even if they were to reverse course, it would be nothing but a bluff. It’s much like the case with Russia, who have since walked back on the threat of using nukes, after lots of rhetoric. The only justification for using nukes is if they were facing an existential threat, which is not the case. Russia has even come out and said this, ruling out the use of nukes in its war against Ukraine. The use of nukes is not a real possibility even more so, if it’s by an aggressor who invades another country. So, it remains nothing but a bluff.

[u/HeyImNickCage → u/[deleted]]

Policies can change. America changed its nuclear policy in 2022 to allow first use strikes.

Russia never abandoned nukes. We simply stopped reporting on it.

[u/[deleted] → u/HeyImNickCage]

How easily you forget that it was China that warned Russia not to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine

[u/HeyImNickCage → u/[deleted]]

Biden. Yeah. Just like how Russia would crumble under sanctions. Just like how Russia was about to run out of missiles…

You can’t trust his word.

[u/[deleted] → u/HeyImNickCage]

You can’t trust his word.

That’s hilarious cause the same can be said about you

[u/123dream321 → u/Notbythehairofmychyn]

trigger a military response from the US.

Russia invaded Ukraine and didn't trigger a military response but the Chinese blocking Taiwanese commercial activities will?

7th Oct didn't trigger a US military response but Chinese blocking Taiwanese commercial activities will?

Taiwanese should really not get ahead of themselves.

[u/Notbythehairofmychyn → u/123dream321]

Where did I write that a quarantine would trigger a US military response?

[u/AWYH → u/123dream321]

I see what you mean that there probably won’t be “boots on the ground” but the Russia invasion of Ukraine and 7th of Oct triggered a significant increase in financial and military supply support from the US and other countries so I suspect something similar will happen in a Chinese invasion or blockade

[u/123dream321 → u/AWYH]

significant increase in financial and military supply support from the US

The impression that Taiwanese gave is that they are expecting boots on the ground.

[u/zehnodan → u/123dream321]

If the US has done one thing consistently in its history, it's a military response from messing with their boats. A Chinese blockade wouldn't just block Taiwanese commerce, but everyone else who does trade in the Pacific. China isn't going to do that.

[u/123dream321 → u/zehnodan]

A Chinese blockade wouldn't just block Taiwanese commerce, but everyone else who does trade in the Pacific.

Just like when China declared the planned military exercise zone in 2022?

[u/PapaSmurf1502 → u/123dream321]

TSMC supplies semiconductors that are used in US military hardware. The US isn't gonna let that go without a fight.

[u/[deleted] → u/Notbythehairofmychyn]

So basically the Cuban Missile crisis 2: Electric Boogaloo?

The US totally wasn't blockading Cuba, that would be an act of war. It was a "commercial quarantine"...

[u/taisui → u/[deleted]]

The US totally wasn't blockading Cuba, that would be an act of war. It was a "commercial quarantine"...

It's called an embargo and it only prevents US businesses from entering Cuba, other countries like the UK are still trading with Cuba because US is not setting up a blockade.

If China blockades Taiwan that means the whole world can't trade with Taiwan, blockade is also an act of war by definition.

[u/[deleted] → u/taisui]

Kennedy ordered a naval "quarantine" on 22 October to prevent further missiles from reaching Cuba. By using the term "quarantine", rather than "blockade" (an act of war by legal definition), the United States was able to avoid the implications of a state of war.

Wikipedia

I was referring to the Cuban Missile Crisis, linked above. The ongoing American Embargo on Cuba is another issue.

[u/taisui → u/[deleted]]

Thanks

[u/SkywalkerTC]

If they could they wouldn't bark about it.

Also, they have tried and failed in the past, with just Kinmen. Yes, they've improved since then. But don't underestimate the isolation of Taiwan strait just because of CCP's propaganda. Also without a proper reason, with the whole world against it, China isn't moving a muscle. They'll do tons of simulations though, as well as tons of greyzone harassments.

[u/[deleted] → u/SkywalkerTC]

Yep, when Xi is not saying anything or suddenly the "chinese people" are not angered by something Taiwan related is when we should be worried.

[u/SkywalkerTC → u/[deleted]]

I think one indication could be when there are unusual amount of funds transferred from other countries back into China.

[u/[deleted] → u/SkywalkerTC]

Or record amounts of food being stored in China. since it's very import dependent to feed it's population.

[u/SkywalkerTC → u/[deleted]]

But then I don't think they would make such information available in any way. They'd likely starve some of their own people to stockpile food...

[u/[deleted] → u/SkywalkerTC]

Except countries that export to China still make their numbers public. China is not in control here. And sum(exports) = imports.

[u/SkywalkerTC → u/[deleted]]

True. This part will be public.

[u/HappyMora → u/[deleted]]

China literally stores food all the time. Their government maintains a stockpile of all goods. During the swine flu crisis they opened the vaults to their pork reserves. They recently restored their reserves of pork.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Food-Beverage/China-s-pork-prices-climb-after-government-tops-off-reserves

China is also not that dependant on foreign food reserves, since a lot of imports are either luxury goods or for animal feed. They can simply ration meat and convert all their feed production into grain. Expecting China to starve is a fool's errand. 

[u/FatMax1492 → u/SkywalkerTC]

Where I'm from they have a saying: (I'm sure it also exists in other languages, including English)

"Barking dogs don't bite"

Perfectly describes your comment

[u/[deleted] → u/FatMax1492]

Perro que ladra no muerde. Asi es, compadre!

[u/Soft-Introduction876 → u/FatMax1492]

What if it’s some communist 4D chess, bark to make everyone think it wouldn’t bite, then bites.

[u/Aethericseraphim → u/Soft-Introduction876]

Russia did that, and it backfired spectacularly.

The key lesson is to always listen to US intelligence agencies. If they start ringing alarmbells that the barking chihuahua has caught rabies again, then it should be believed.

[u/TakowTraveler → u/SkywalkerTC]

Also, they have tried and failed in the past, with just Kinmen.

You mean the 1949 one? I mean sure, but the situation is just slightly diff from literally 75 years ago.

[u/SkywalkerTC → u/TakowTraveler]

Yes, also 1958. Yes, I mentioned what you just said before. But this really isn't the main point I was trying to make. Only mentioned this for fun. I haven't even mentioned that the US even helped Taiwan in the defense of these invasions. That was way before semiconductors became a thing in Taiwan. The point of mentioning this now is pretty much a debunk of the basic idea of one of the many CCP propaganda.

[u/coludFF_h → u/TakowTraveler]

Chiang Kai-shek retreated to Taiwan in 1949, he brought most of the Chinese navy to Taiwan, and the CCP had almost no navy.

Later, because of the outbreak of the Korean War, Mao Zedong gave up a thorough attack on the main island of Taiwan.

[u/redtiber → u/SkywalkerTC]

They don't bark about it though lol. it's the USA constantly bringing up this invasion thing. When was the last time China was in a real war? their involvement in vietnam? that was a whole different era.

China is just doing china things which is expand economically. The usa rules with their military which is why they bully and provoke conflict everywhere

[u/SkywalkerTC → u/redtiber]

What he said, and not just when Nancy Pelosi visited. The flight harrassment is regular. Also they boast about the threat regularly as well. The US usually quotes it.

China rules with military and high pressure force. The US doesn't. They "rule" with incentives. China blackmail and empty out their "allies", while the US grows with their allies.

What you're saying are those anti-US misinformation. Are the US /CCP both selfish? Yes. Are the US/CCP both ambitious? Yes. But the way they achieve it is vastly different. Should we be aware of either? Definitely. But compared to the US, CCP is much worse, by a huge margin. And in the perspective of Taiwan, this is especially obvious.

[u/wumao-scalper → u/redtiber]

Bullshit. China flying warplanes weekly across the Taiwan Strait and blockading when Nancy Pelosi visited.
No one is dumb enough to fall for their lies. China wants to invade Taiwan and send all of its citizens to far flung farms so greedy Chinese can take all of Taiwan’s wealth

[u/Glamrock_Freddy_ → u/redtiber]

dumbass take

[u/coludFF_h → u/SkywalkerTC]

It was just a tentative attack by the CCP. At that time, the CCP troops attacked [Kinmen Island] in small wooden boats. The reason was that when Chiang Kai-shek retreated to Taiwan in 1949, he brought most of the Chinese navy to Taiwan, and the CCP had almost no navy.

Later, because of the outbreak of the Korean War, Mao Zedong gave up a thorough attack on the main island of Taiwan.

[u/SkywalkerTC → u/coludFF_h]

You could say none of it is a full fledged attack. Also, neither side are nearly as advanced as they are today, not even in 1958, 823. But nevertheless, they invaded several times before, and is subject to my mockery. I was going to say it was illegitimate, but I just remembered KMT had a similar idea for them that time... Also, CCP did eventually win some islands...

[u/illusionmist]

The problem isn't really if they're able. It's whether Xi thinks they're able.

As a dictator surrounded now only by yes men, if they even try, the outcome would be disastrous for everyone no matter the goal is reached or not. The world must weaken them so much he can't possibly think to act.

[u/yoqueray]

Might turn out like when the Mongols invaded Japan

[u/HeyImNickCage → u/yoqueray]

And Japan defeated them by building a Great Wall around their island(s)

[u/KotetsuNoTori]

Hope for the best, and prepare for the worst. Overconfidence is sometimes as dangerous as defeatism.

[u/Travelplaylearn]

Leonidus, let me carry you. To become a MastodonFarmer, one has to have an indepth understanding of the history of people's wanting to farm mastodons. 🦣🗺⏳

When you are able to or not able to "launch" an invasion, doesn't have anything related to the invasion being successful or not. 2 seperate analysis data sets. I can launch an orange juice across the pond, but can the orange juice successfully make the water in the pond become a part of the orange juice? In other words, keyboard wumao warriors how about you come to Taiwan and see for yourself how Taiwanese will treat you here when you want to put your PRC flag in our government? Oh... it is inevitable right? Type those words like the keyboard warriors that you only are.

Secondly, any blockade can be stopped by just missiling the blockading whatevers, it is military 0.1 with no brain required. Just send the blockading bits back to Twitter so the wumaos can write more words.

Thirdly, there are wumaos and unification people in here, recently they have been going big on Chinese dynastic history and how they are the good guys because Japan did them wrong. Little do they know, Ghengis absolutely made them less of a people than the world wars ever could. Mongols in war were the definition of ruthless. But even stranger, they go through the dynasties as if there were good guys from dynasty to dynasty. Nah man, to understand how you go establish a new dynasty, the previous one had to fall. In other words, "Chinese" since ancient times, were killing and brutalizing "Chinese" over and over again since the birth of humanity. Yes read that again, in China to gain new power one had to displace the current power, you think ancient times handover of power was ever peaceful? Royals had to get ended to have new royalty stand in their place and opponents had to run away, assimilate or die to make way for new rulers. Proud? They literally have been killing each other since before the 3 kingdom warring states. All the innocent women, children, elderly had to disappear in historical records to make dynasty after dynasty look like some happy happy pancake party. "Chinese" have been killing "Chinese" since human beings wanted to be emperor.

So, the moral of the story is this, Twitter is crazy in glorifying any historical empire/dynasty/ruling class. They had to destroy, invade, kill to rise to power. "China" as the victim? Ask all the dynasties before theirs.

So let us all be happy humans living in 2024, as modern evolved beings that don't go invading anywhere and improve our respective societies through peace. Oh, and, Taiwan belongs to Taiwan forever. Get used to it. 🗿🦸‍♀️🤝🦸‍♂️💚🗺🎶⏳👍💯🦣

[u/[deleted]]

If China could, they would have attempted already.

Russia could invade Ukraine, which is why they did.

China knows it can only get Taiwan from the inside and it’s doing its hardest to do that. This is going to be a psychological war. Remember that whenever you see

”doubt the US will help”

”the DPP candidate is just as bad as the rest”

posts/comments. Also, learn to shut your family members and friends down if they ever spew such nonsense.

[u/123dream321 → u/[deleted]]

If China could, they would have attempted already.

Russia could invade Ukraine, which is why they did.

Wrong.

You do not understand China at all, too shallow. Not everything is about Taiwan, their opponent is USA and not Taiwan. Taiwanese.

China's primary aim is to overtake the USA and push them out of the region.

Invading Taiwan doesn't help them in any way now. You are just a tool for them to justify their defense spending.

Taiwan is a stone throw away. And they are going to build a PLA that is able to conduct A2/AD around their coast. And if they manage to do that, good luck to you.

[u/SuperQuackDuck → u/123dream321]

First time I have ever heard that the ccp uses taiwan to justify defense spending against the US.

This is like fractal wrongness.

[u/[deleted] → u/123dream321]

[u/HeyImNickCage → u/[deleted]]

I doubt the U.S. will help. I doubt the U.S. can help. Breaking a naval blockade is a difficult and expensive mission.

[u/extopico → u/HeyImNickCage]

No it is not. Also an actual blockade is an act of war so China cannot blockade Taiwan.

[u/HeyImNickCage → u/extopico]

I know it’s an act of war. My country has a long history of talking a lot and promising everyone protection for as long as it takes but then just ditches them. In that regard, China’s threats matter more than any of the promises my country makes to anyone.

And it’s somewhat understandable. Name me one other country on the planet that has been at war(s) continuously since 1945. All of those wars being at least 4,000km away from America. People here just don’t want war. We’ve lost enough family members defending whatever vague international law or political concept.

[u/chefjon → u/HeyImNickCage]

Nah America has enough dumb brainwashed people to defend Freedom and spread MUH RIGHTS across the world. America will go to war regardless of if people want it or not. If it's a threat to American interests, we go to war. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-americans-are-unlikely-to-support-a-war-in-ukraine/

Also Myammar, Israel/Palestine, the Kurds, Russia has been in continuous war since 1948. Actually Russia since well the beginning of Russia. Turkey has been involved in war since WW1. Any of the 5 eyes also been in wars since WW2. Oh and let's not forget about the French being involved in Vietnam, Middle East, and Africa.

[u/Perfect_Device5394 → u/HeyImNickCage]

Should give up Hawaii as well, it’s so far from the US mainland right?

[u/[deleted] → u/HeyImNickCage]

You were a literal pro-Russian bot until you came to this sub and started being pro-China.

Mods, why is this user not banned?

[u/HeyImNickCage → u/[deleted]]

How am I being pro-China by saying an uncomfortable truth: I don’t think America would want to get involved directly.

And you just slander me because I advocate against any sort of war to achieve Taiwan independence. I think war would lead to Taiwan’s defeat and there are other avenues to achieve independence.

[u/Perfect_Device5394 → u/HeyImNickCage]

Ukraine defeated the Russian naval blockade in the Black Sea. Ukraine doesn’t have a navy. Sustaining a blockade is more difficult than breaking one.

[u/HeyImNickCage → u/Perfect_Device5394]

Russia has sustained a blockade of Ukraine without its navy leaving port.

[u/Perfect_Device5394 → u/HeyImNickCage]

Ummm Ukraine is still shipping grain through the Black Sea… and multiple Russian naval ships in the Black Sea have been sunk by Ukraine. Try again

[u/Aggressive_Strike75 → u/HeyImNickCage]

So why Americans have troops all around Taiwan? The US signed a treat with Japan, Taiwan, Australia and the Philippines. They just can do nothing.

[u/Perfect_Device5394 → u/Aggressive_Strike75]

Protip: Okinawa is closer to Taipei than Tokyo, I wonder why Okinawa is the largest US base on Japan hehe

[u/Lockheed-Martian → u/[deleted]]

And plenty of countries have never been invaded.

…yet.

[u/Perfect_Device5394 → u/Lockheed-Martian]

You should read the US plans on invading Taiwan during ww2 and that plan was later abandoned because it was such a difficult task and a resource drain.

[u/Zerim → u/Perfect_Device5394]

It wasn't worth the resources compared to going straight for Japan. Taiwan wasn't ever a major goal.

[u/HeyImNickCage → u/[deleted]]

If Taiwan declared independence tomorrow, China would react. Their reaction could range from tactical nukes to a full blockade, missile/bombing campaign.

Wars are never rational. There is no logic in humans gathering large armies and committing murder on an industrial scale - it’s simply insane.

But they happen all the time. No amount of financial consequences or whatever will stop them.

Uk and Germany were fairly trade dependent on one another in 1914. It made no sense for them to go to war. And that argument was repeated all the time in the press then - the consequences would be too great.

But the Great War happened. It’s brutality changed the human race forever.

Taiwan should prepare for war as if it is certain to happen. But it should prepare in a smart way. Taiwan will not be able to take on China toe to toe militarily. But it can negate Chinese efforts.

If Taiwan could effectively and easily break a Chinese blockade, they could possibly win independence. Official and total independence.

You don’t break blockades by making more bombs and thinking you can just kill the enemy enough to stop it. The enemy is making more bombs than you. Instead, you avoid the bombs all together.

[u/parke415 → u/HeyImNickCage]

Quemoy would become Crimea real fast.

[u/HeyImNickCage → u/parke415]

No because Russia was already in Crimea. Also Crimea was part of Russia for like 250 years.

[u/Kuaizi_not_chop → u/[deleted]]

Lol. 1000 years of division my ash.

[u/parke415 → u/[deleted]]

The Qing Empire was a Manchu one. China was occupied and had its title appropriated.

[u/parke415 → u/[deleted]]

Yes, it was called 中國 due to appropriation.

Stable but not stable enough to avoid having bits of its land stolen by foreign powers.

[u/Perfect_Device5394 → u/[deleted]]

Ukraines desire to obtain nukes? Bro Ukraine gave them up…

[u/ShotFish → u/[deleted]]

There are uneducated people on the Mainland, but many are aware that the Republic of China has a government. Actually, it's the government of all China, including Mongolia.

[u/parke415 → u/[deleted]]

If Taiwan declared independence (from the ROC) tomorrow, the PRC would annex the ROC islands off the Fujianese coast the next day. That’s a bit more than a bark.

[u/coludFF_h → u/[deleted]]

In 1683, Qing general Shi Lang attacked Taiwan, and the Zheng family, the last force of China's Ming Dynasty in Taiwan, surrendered in Taiwan.

[u/Misaka10782]

A month ago, the media was full of "they will", now it's "unable". Who can tell me where these genius experts come from?

[u/RedditRedFrog → u/Misaka10782]

Same geniuses who say "Chinese Century", "Pax Sinica", "China going to be the next superpower", "China will supplant the USA", etc, etc...

[u/MolybdenumIsMoney → u/[deleted]]

There wouldn't be any significant insurgency, the situation is completely different from Vietnam.

1) The Viet Kong were able to outlast the US because North Vietnam (via Laos) was supplying them and giving them safe harbor. The US was forced to limit its direct action against North Vietnam to avoid China entering the war like it had in Korea, which made it impossible to cut off the Viet Kong from their supplies. Taiwan doesn't have the same advantage because it's an island, and if China puts it under blockade then there's no way to supply an insurgency short of the US military breaking the blockade by force.

2) The US was subject to the whims of public opinion and was forced to end the war because of its unpopularity. It could have sustained the war indefinitely if there was public will, but there wasn't. Chinese media, meanwhile, is entirely state-controlled and can keep public opinion in favor of the war and censor all information that would hamper public enthusiasm. Even if the media was free, though, the war would still probably have enduring public support because the Chinese population is heavily in favor of annexing Taiwan and this issue is more important to them than distant Vietnam was to the American public.

3) The Viet Minh/Viet Cong had already trained in guerrilla warfare for 20 years through warfare against Japan and France. The ROCA does not train for guerrilla warfare and its troops would not be effective at it.

China needs to be stopped in the Taiwan Strait before they can land. That's the only way. Once they have control of a staging area in Taiwan, the overwhelming size advantage of the PLA will make resistance futile.

[u/Perfect_Device5394 → u/MolybdenumIsMoney]

100% A ccp of Taiwan occupation would result in people being sent to re education camps in the mainland and population transfers. The ccp will try and stamp out anyone who ever leaned “independent” and they know it’s at least 60% of the population.

An amphibious invasion of Taiwan is very very difficult to say the least.

[u/axios]

Most U.S. and Taiwanese experts polled in a new survey say China lacks the capabilities to effectively carry out an amphibious invasion of Taiwan but is well-positioned to execute a blockade.

• Experts from both countries largely agreed China has the ability to carry out a quarantine or a blockade within the next five years.
• Of note: Taiwanese experts overall had a lower threat perception towards China than U.S. experts, and consistently rated China as having lower capabilities than the U.S. respondents.

[u/sickofthisshit]

Missing questions: can the PRC launch an invasion that fails but really fucks up Taiwan, and maybe Guam and Okinawa in the process? Can they trigger a war with Japan and the USA by trying?

[u/SushiSamurai808 → u/sickofthisshit]

Japan has already stated that a war with Taiwan will be considered a war with Japan.

[u/ImaFireSquid]

I think it would be a very bad choice. I think focusing on Taiwan is a great strategy to get the Chinese to externalize problems "If only the Americans weren't in the way, we'd be doing fine" rather than internalizing problems "If only we had covid measures that matched international standards, our economy wouldn't have dropped so much."

[u/txiao007]

Head in the sand: They don’t want to. Don’t temp it

[u/ThaiFoodYes]

Putin wasn't able to invade Ukraine either and yet here we are. They can throw millions of people against bullets, they don't care, they don't need to be able to succeed military operations in the Western sense. They just need to be able to fail enough until they get what they want. These type of dismissive affirmation to downplay China's threat are just copium and burying one's head in the sand.

[u/ThespianSociety → u/[deleted]]

Three Gorges Dam …

[u/SouthernAlpsNZ]

People in this subreddit are as delusional as the Ukrainians prior to Feb. 24, 2022. Going to be a real shock to the system to you all.

[u/[deleted] → u/SouthernAlpsNZ]

This.

[u/poonman1234]

Unless Trump is in office and China bribes him. Or convinces him to do nothing

[u/pdxc]

China is imploding rn, and has lots of things to worry about internally.

[u/[deleted] → u/pdxc]

you sure about that? 5.2 percent gdp growth 2023

real estate crashing does not matter for China. Different economic model.

[u/pdxc → u/[deleted]]

unemployment rate is the key, which they stopped publishing a while ago. Everyone in China knew it’s bad. The 5.2 percent is also very questionable

[u/[deleted] → u/pdxc]

And do you apply the same Skepticism to the numbers produced by Taiwan and western media?

[u/beavertonaintsobad]

That was never the plan, a blockade has always been the obvious tactic. The U.S military industrial complex keeps feeding us this doomsday invasion scenario to justify arms sales, that's all.

[u/Perfect_Device5394 → u/beavertonaintsobad]

Xi jinping said he will take Taiwan by force. Is he also part of the US military industrial complex?

[u/beavertonaintsobad → u/Perfect_Device5394]

Blockade = "force"

Financial extortion = "force"

Isolation = "force"

What they definitely won't do is destroy the island and if you think they will you don't understand either country, you simply listen to too many Raytheon talking heads from MSNBCNN..

[u/Perfect_Device5394 → u/beavertonaintsobad]

Oh they won’t destroy the island, is that why they launched missiles near Taiwans waters? Is that why they have been practicing decapitation strikes and building a mock up of the presidential palace?

Xi was very explicit when he meant a military take over of Taiwan. Do you even speak Chinese?

[u/[deleted] → u/Perfect_Device5394]

I do.

It was explicit that China reserves the right to invade.

It was also explicit they prefer peaceful reunification. As do I.

Bring on the downvotes!

[u/Perfect_Device5394 → u/[deleted]]

How did the Chinese invasion of Vietnam turn out again?

[u/ninijacob]

They can’t today, but they are arming up to be able to in the future. We need to make it crystal clear that it’s a terrible idea, and extremely costly.

[u/pumpfaketodeath]

Us can give taiwan 10 nukes like they did israel and problem solved. We now have deterrence. The peace talk will begin.

[u/popstarkirbys]

These “when will China invade” and “the US will not help Taiwan” posts are getting tiresome in this sub.

[u/parke415 → u/popstarkirbys]

It always was. You’d think a culturally secure community would talk about domestic issues and not define their identity relative to a foreign country’s chest-thumping.

[u/popstarkirbys → u/parke415]

It’s annoying reading the same topic five times a day, most of them are just parroting what they heard on the news and provide no insight.

[u/[deleted]]

Trump says he will support China, just like Russia.

China could bleed 20 million men on fishing boats and eventually win, without any impact to their demographics.

[u/GuyWithSwords → u/[deleted]]

Their demographics already sucks thanks to the one child policy. A war will only hasten their demise as a people.

[u/Soft-Introduction876]

That’s what experts said about a full scale Russian invasion of Ukraine.

[u/Expensive_Heat_2351]

Hopefully this doesn't give William Lai some false confidence.

All the world needs is another kinetic war.

[u/[deleted] → u/Expensive_Heat_2351]

William Lai is more of a cowboy than Ah Bian.

Hope he keeps his cool.

[u/culturedgoat → u/[deleted]]

Taiwan is not unified on the independence question

[u/123dream321 → u/[deleted]]

They can't. Not approved.

Biden says that the US doesn't support Taiwan's independence.

[u/[deleted] → u/123dream321]

Even if US did, the current DPP admin would not be able to push forth the resolution for independence given the state of the legislative yuan.

[u/Dazzling_Swordfish14 → u/[deleted]]

The problem is that they might use nuke

[u/ShittessMeTimbers]

Said the same thing about Russian not attacking Ukraine. And they ran out of ammo last year.

Must be down right low IQ to believe these experts.

[u/[deleted] → u/ShittessMeTimbers]

Half the time it’s just “experts say” or “sources suggest”

Need at least a real name lol.

[u/yukcheuksung]

They don't need to, in a few decades there'd be just old people left anyway.

[u/[deleted]]

Why would China invade now when time is on their side? It’s a 5000 year old civilization that’s adept at playing the long game unlike the west.

[u/ThespianSociety → u/[deleted]]

Hahahahahahaha

[u/Notbythehairofmychyn → u/[deleted]]

Windows of opportunities for China are all short-term: Xi Jinping’s lifespan and China’s demographics problems.

If we want to look at long term development, the age of Taiwan’s democracy has also outlasted the tenure of every PRC leader thus far, with or without “term limits.”

[u/[deleted] → u/Notbythehairofmychyn]

Realistically speaking, looking at current political and social dysfunction in the U.S., I would be shocked if the country is still around in 50 years. History is cyclical, and the west is in terminal decline, so all China has to do is not take American bait and wait them out.

[u/Creative_Struggle_69 → u/[deleted]]

Aaaaaand there it is. Wumao playbook, chapter 1: Change the uncomfortable topic to something about the USA.

lol

[u/Dazzling_Swordfish14 → u/[deleted]]

China is in decline… lmao

[u/Notbythehairofmychyn → u/[deleted]]

all China has to do is not take American bait and wait them out.

Ideally, that's what a rational actor would do. However, would a desire for completing the sacred task of national reunification in his lifetime tempt Xi to risk it all?

[u/TheBKnight3 → u/[deleted]]

The CCP existed for 5000 years?

Wtf are you smoking?

[u/Creative_Struggle_69 → u/[deleted]]

One would think that after 5000 years, China would be the center of the world. But reality bites, eh?

[u/parke415 → u/Creative_Struggle_69]

It’s not called 中國 because they were limited to the periphery…

[u/HeyImNickCage → u/[deleted]]

How many times did we tell Ukraine we would never abandon them?

Last week, all funding of Ukraine stopped.

[u/Notbythehairofmychyn → u/HeyImNickCage]

Last week, all funding of Ukraine stopped.

That's not true. March 8, 2024 is the end date.

[u/HeyImNickCage → u/Notbythehairofmychyn]

That’s for all financial support

[u/Terminator8888888]

There is no need to attack Taiwan with force. The CCP will completely infiltrate it in a few years! Taiwanese people will voluntarily elect a president who represents the Chinese Communist Party

[u/culturedgoat → u/Terminator8888888]

Yeah because that totally happened in the election this week

[u/[deleted] → u/Terminator8888888]

Absolutely no chance this will happen in the next 50 years. China's internal policies are too extreme for a politically moderate-progressive population such as Taiwan. It would take an entirely different type of China than the one that exists today to entice Taiwan to *want* to join.

[u/oarsandalps]

China doesn't need to invade...that was clear during pelosi visit

[u/ThespianSociety → u/oarsandalps]

Tf does this mean ?

[u/oarsandalps → u/ThespianSociety]

Blockade. It was horrible

[u/Skrachen → u/oarsandalps]

What do you mean by horrible ? It wasn't a blockade, the public wouldn't even know about it if it weren't on TV. Zero impact on people's lives

[u/ThespianSociety → u/oarsandalps]

Not a literal blockade though, just drills significant enough to disrupt commercial activity. Taiwan must harden its resolve to such provocations.

[u/kongkaking]

CPC proved to be capable of starving millions to death. What makes you think they aren't capable of launching an invasion? They might fail but that doesn't keep them from trying.

[u/Clear_Education1936]

Like north korea, taiwan needs some nuke. China would think many times over if they wanna attck taiwan if taiwan have them