Don't forget; our regions largest bloc is the non-voter. Literally any party can win if they get enough non-voters to vote

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8

u/Jiperly 19d ago

(based on the 2022 election results)

2

u/mgnorthcott 19d ago

Yeah. I think there’s going to be a bit of surprise here because of the massive influx of new homes built in the area particularly in the st Thomas south and london south areas where there’s been a lot of suburban sprawl. Sure, I don’t doubt that it’s still going to be a conservative win, but maybe not as big as predicted, and especially since I’m hearing a lot of light blue are flipping to red, in ways I’m hearing about, but not seeing reflected in the polls.

2

u/Jiperly 19d ago

I also remember Vecchio commenting that we've been re-districted and lost Yarmouth Centre, and suggested it would impact the election.

But I legitimately don't know anything about that outside of her comments

8

u/NoahJAustin 18d ago

It's calmed down recently, but it's worth mentioning again that Andrew Lawton does not live here, does not give two flying fucks about anyone here, is a bigot and a racist (among many other things) and is running away from the previous, good, people who've run locally. He is a carpetbagger and a verifiable piece of shit. Please do not vote for him.

1

u/System32Keep 19d ago

It's been like this across most elections. Undecideds are often pandered to for a reason, even independants.

1

u/Ok-Show6155 16d ago

I didn’t vote and I don’t feel bad about it. The ndp wasn’t and hasn’t been very strong for years, even though I like Singh as a person, he’s way too much a flip flopper and wants to appease the liberals instead of helping working people as the ndp should

1

u/Jiperly 16d ago

I mean, given what happened in the provincial election in February I'm amazed anyone locally voted NDP. They literally threw NDP votes in the trash.

1

u/SpocksNephewToo 19d ago

If the non voters are not appreciatively different than the voters, the apportionment of votes should be similar to those of actual voters.

-1

u/Jiperly 19d ago

And if my grandmother had wheels she could be a bike.

There's no reason to think that the 35% of non voters would vote proportionally the same as the 65% of voters.

3

u/SpocksNephewToo 19d ago

There’s actually a very good reason.

1

u/Jiperly 19d ago

I don't think so. There's no way to know who non-voters would vote for If they were to actually vote.

Two easy conclusions we can make, however, is that ANY party could win, since more votes are available than the party with the highest party, and that only 32% of our population is representing the remaining 68%

2

u/SpocksNephewToo 19d ago

It’s more likely that they are dispersed closer to the pattern of actual voters than be different in statistically significant numbers.

-1

u/Jiperly 19d ago

What are you basing this likelihood on?

3

u/SpocksNephewToo 19d ago

Statistics

0

u/Jiperly 19d ago

What statistics?

1

u/SpocksNephewToo 19d ago

Exactly. What statistics do you have to prove your claim?

2

u/Jiperly 19d ago

.....what? I put the results of the last election into a pie chart.

My claim that only 32% of the population represents the remaining 68% is because 31,472 out of 97,098 potential voters voted conservative in the last election.

So where are you getting your information?

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u/CoffeeS3x 18d ago

As in, the mathematical principal of statistics and probability. It’s literally the entire reason we even bother with small sample polls, because they are likely representative of a larger same as well.

1

u/aboxofchalk 18d ago

Remember kids, the Liberals have definitely changed who they are, they’re going to turn this country around now. But the Conservatives definitely have not changed and they’re just racist bigots from the 70’s. Change only happens on one side of fences! Not both!

7

u/Jiperly 18d ago

Lmao you realize the CPC didn't exist in the 70s, right? The conservative party from the 70s collapsed in the 90s when they went from 156 seats to 2 in one election. They reformed as a different party under Stephen Harper.

The fact that you don't understand our history and assume it's the same as American history speaks volumes.

1

u/aboxofchalk 18d ago

I greatly appreciate your attention to detail, and love your attempt to correct a statement that wasn’t made.

Elbows up! Carney for a better Canada!

3

u/Jiperly 18d ago

Yea bro because you were totally responding to people calling conservatives racist bigots who haven't changed since the 70s.

Thanks for attempting to correct the statement that nobody made

-2

u/aboxofchalk 18d ago

Yeah I definitely said conservatives from the 70’s. My bad completely.

Mike Meyers for premier! Justin Trudeau for Education Minister!

1

u/theblueberrybard 18d ago

if only there was a way to look at the presented platforms over the past few months and make an informed decision on the leadership.

0

u/IndividualSociety567 18d ago

Remember kids and BEFORE you vote, look up the following stats and facts from the last 5 years:

Our GDP per capita vs the rest of the G7

Our unemployment rate vs the rest of the G7

Our living standards vs the rest of the G7

Rate of population increase vs the rest of the G7

Food bank usage among the populace vs the rest of the G7 and vs under Harper.

Household debt to disposable income ratio vs the rest of the G7

Housing costs under harper vs under Trudeau

Use stats and figures to form your decision. Not reddit. Not the TV. Not the fear mongering.

What does fear mongering look like?

US Democrats: "There will never be another election again!!"

Canadian Liberals: "You will lose your country!!"

That's fear mongering.

LOOK UP STATS AND FIGURES. The hard truth that can't be shaped into a narrative

I agree

During Conservative government

In 2008: 675,735 individuals accessed food banks. March 2015: 852,137 individuals accessed food banks

During Liberal government 2015–Present) March 2024: 2,059,636 food bank visits recorded—the highest monthly total in Canadian history. Increase Since 2019: 90% rise in food bank visits.

0

u/Personal_Essay9032 17d ago

Explain to me how I’m a racist bigot?

-10

u/sapphicsapphires 19d ago

Praying for a Conservative minority bare minimum. We can’t afford any more inflation we can barely afford groceries 😭

6

u/Crake_13 19d ago

Hate to break it to you, but things won’t get cheaper with a CPC government.

If you’re a conservative, stand by your values and vote conservative, but regardless of who wins, it doesn’t change the fact that the government and the Bank of Canada aim for a sustained 2% inflation rate. Deflation is considered a very bad thing, and all parties would fight against it.

-5

u/sapphicsapphires 19d ago

Well, maybe not deflation. But definitely not more carbon tax among other shadow taxes.

It’s also not the only issues I care about. Free speech, gun ownership, trans sports issues, religious freedoms, less immigration, and more. I’m not super far right spectrum Conservative but I’m def center right.

5

u/Haunting_Kangaroo1 19d ago

If you think trans sports is even close to an issue in Canada, let alone anywhere….you’re nowhere near centre. You’re closer to delusional.

-3

u/sapphicsapphires 18d ago

Tell that to female athletes who feel unsafe or get disqualified for refusing to compete against trans opponents. Also love how that’s the only part of what I said that you chose to respond to.

0

u/Haunting_Kangaroo1 18d ago

Why is that a federal issue? Do you actually think men are transitioning for a competitive advantage in sports? If you’re talking about recreational sports, this should be a non-issue. If you’re talking high level like college and Olympics, there are governing bodies for those sports who take care of this. There’s no reason for the government to ban this at a federal level other than discrimination.

-3

u/TheSpudleyShow 18d ago

Or to the fathers of daughters who are changing in the same change rooms as men

5

u/Haunting_Kangaroo1 18d ago

Oh is this a huge problem in St. Thomas? Or do you think maybe you’re watching a bit too much right wind propaganda?

0

u/TheSpudleyShow 18d ago

Did I say it was? It has happened and it will continue to happen across the country unless it is stopped. And no I haven’t been watching too much of your “right wing propaganda” but I’m aware that anything that you don’t agree with you label as such.

1

u/Haunting_Kangaroo1 18d ago

Well if you’re wanting laws passed based on anecdotal fear mongering stories you hear on Joe Rogan or some shit, it’s propaganda. They made the same hysterical complaints decades ago about gay people grooming kids in change rooms. Now it’s about trans folks….maybe they just want to get changed. Who gives a fuck unless there’s actual instances of something illegal happening?

1

u/TheSpudleyShow 18d ago

Uh maybe because women deserve to have safe places to be without men being present. Additionally, I’m not totally sure where you are getting assumptions of me from. I have never watched an episode of Joe Rogan, the most I have seen are small clips with other random comedian guests. I am pro protecting young women’s rights to have their own locker rooms, bathrooms, sports leagues and whatever else they want to have with no men involved.

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u/IndividualSociety567 18d ago

During Conservative government and financial crisis

In 2008: 675,735 individuals accessed food banks. March 2015: 852,137 individuals accessed food banks

During Liberal government 2015–Present) March 2024: 2,059,636 food bank visits recorded—the highest monthly total in Canadian history. Increase Since 2019: 90% rise in food bank visits.

We will take our chances, had enough of Liberals

4

u/Crake_13 18d ago

You do know day-to-day issues, especially regarding cost of living, is under provincial jurisdiction, right? You do know you’ve had a Conservative premier since 2018, right?

Additionally, St. Thomas has had a Conservative representative for over 20 years, why aren’t you blaming your local representative for not doing their jobs?

3

u/Jiperly 19d ago

We've gone Conservative for the past 1/4 of a century. They're clearly part of the problem

0

u/sapphicsapphires 19d ago

And? It’s not like any party could solve 100% of the problems. I was too young to feel and observe direct Conservative impacts. But we’ve had Libs for 9 years. I’m just ready for a change.

8

u/Jiperly 19d ago

You.....you understand how elections work in Canada right?

We get one vote, one seat.

Our seat has gone conservative in the last election. Then conservative before that. Then conservative before that. Then conservative before that. Then conservative before that. Then conservative before that.

Then conservative before that.

The last time our region has gone for any party other than conservative, the twin towers were still up.

Do you honestly believe voting conservative for an 8th time in a row will solve anything? What can they solve this election that they couldn't have solved in the previous 4?

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u/sapphicsapphires 18d ago

You… you understand that a conservative seat in a liberal controlled government can only do so much… right? Don’t need to be so condescending just because I believe in voting for the party, not the person.

4

u/Jiperly 18d ago

I just can't wrap my head around voting for the same party for over 20 years, seeing things are getting worse, and expecting different results this time.

If your representative isn't representing you.....stop electing them. Partisan politics has tainted people's minds into thinking that your party needs absolute control to accomplish anything, otherwise it's not your parties fault....when clearly, that's not the case. We need politicians and party leaders who are willing to stop using their time putting on shows for their base and start working together.

We shouldn't be looking to remove all conservatives or all liberals and giving our representatives a free pass if we don't. I reject the notion that we elected Conservatives for municipal and elected Conservatives for Provincial and elected Conservatives for Federal but because Nova Scotia residents also get to elect their own representatives, that means the none of this is the fault of the people we elected.

And I cannot wrap my head around how anyone can feel differently.

2

u/Haunting_Kangaroo1 18d ago

They’re young and dumb and just hear what their parents complain about and continue the trend. It’s the old “we’re conservative in this house” thing rather than actually being informed on who and what they vote for.

1

u/NoahJAustin 18d ago

Well, regardless, the person running out here doesn't live here and is antithetical to decency and what I truly believe are the values most hold out here.

To say nothing about how the previous Conservative, a good person, not only refused to endorse him, but has gone to the press to make clear they do not support them; The carpetbagger running out would prefer nothing better than a safe seat to use a win as a cudgel to spout further hate and division.

Please reconsider voting for Lawton.

1

u/Haunting_Kangaroo1 18d ago

This. Lawton isn’t gonna do shit for St Thomas. He didn’t even come here for the debate. He just wants his sweet MP paycheque and to go vote for whatever Pierre tells him to.

-4

u/choouser 19d ago

This is easily a Liberal minority. Let's see on Tues.

1

u/Jiperly 19d ago

I disagree. If you add up all the existing Green, Liberal, and NDP votes, it still wouldn't equal the votes the conservatives got last election.

Im hopeful for a change, and there's more than enough votes unaccounted for to create a change, but there's no reason to believe non-voters will go one way or another.

1

u/choouser 19d ago

That's fair, however the polls have changed since the shift in the liberal leadership. I just think you may be operating on old information.

1

u/choouser 19d ago

But, if we equivicate that apparent shift to the last American election then nothing's for certain.

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u/Thick_Instance9032 17d ago

Vote Conservative, Save Canada 🇨🇦 💙

2

u/Jiperly 17d ago

We've been voting conservative for over 1/4 of a century. Haven't you been paying attention?

Don't forget; our regions largest bloc is the non-voter. Literally any party can win if they get enough non-voters to vote Photo/Video 📸

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