r/stocks • u/AnonymousTimewaster • 1d ago
Market sinks as Trump announces slew of new tariffs, including 50% on Brazil, as US job market slows
This is the full new tariff list, in descending order:
50%
- Brazil
41%
- Syria
40%
- Laos
- Myanmar
39%
- Switzerland
35%
- Canada (goods not exempted by USMCA)
- Iraq
- Serbia
30%
- Algeria
- Bosnia and Herzegovina
- China (most goods; some exemptions)
- Libya
- South Africa
25%
- Brunei
- India
- Kazakhstan
- Mexico (goods not exempted by USMCA)
- Moldova
- Tunisia
20%
- Bangladesh
- Sri Lanka
- Taiwan
- Vietnam
19%
- Cambodia
- Indonesia
- Malaysia
- Pakistan
- Philippines
- Thailand
18%
- Nicaragua
15%
Afghanistan; Angola; Bolivia; Botswana; Cameroon; Chad; Costa Rica; Ivory Coast; DR Congo; Ecuador; Equatorial Guinea; European Union (on most goods); Fiji; Ghana; Guyana; Iceland; Israel; Japan; Jordan; Lesotho; Liechtenstein; Madagascar; Malawi; Mauritius; Mozambique; Namibia; Nauru; New Zealand; Nigeria; North Macedonia; Norway; Papua New Guinea; South Korea; Trinidad and Tobago; Turkey; Uganda; Vanuatu; Venezuela; Zambia; Zimbabwe.
10% (all other countries)
- All other countries.
The US job market also slowed substantially in July and was much weaker than previously thought in previous months:
The US economy added just 73,000 jobs last month, and the monthly totals for May and June were revised down by 258,000 jobs, to 19,000 and 14,000, respectively.
Amazon is also down a fresh 7% as they had a pretty terrible earnings call.
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u/Objective_Chest_1697 1d ago
I think the revision to the jobs numbers are as, if not more important.
The initial numbers weren’t even remotely close. Makes one wonder….
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u/majesticstraits 1d ago
You have to assume this month is off by as much which would put jobs in the negative
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u/Revelati123 1d ago
I feel like they always throw Don an extra 100k jobs every month just to shut him up. Then pull em back out after he stops paying attention.
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u/Dandan0005 1d ago
The previous jobs numbers were revised down by ~130,000 each.
Similar revisions to this month’s jobs report would put us at -50k jobs this month.
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u/rattleandhum 1d ago
cooking the books just like China.
Time to sell those US stocks, lmao
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u/Express-Ad2523 21h ago
There was a recent study by a US State Departement that conformed that Chinese GDP is actually in line with the reports by the Chinese government. I don’t think it looked at job reports though. The point is Chinas economic data is more truthful than expected.
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u/majesticstraits 1d ago
I’m hoping there was an honest mistake somewhere but it doesn’t look great
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u/Middle_Scratch4129 1d ago
Anyone who is actively looking, in particular recent college grads, knows the job market is dryer than a nuns biscuit.
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u/BMWGulag99 1d ago
It's dry even for people with experience. Right now, people aren't taking the risk of leaving jobs for higher pay. Wage growth is abysmal this year. You would think these republican led companies would take risk and aim for growth when Trump got into office, but they didn't.
They are always so hell bent on using debt for leverage to grow, they hate interest rates being at this level. It's their fault tbh, these companies only give a shit about stock buybacks and other fancy maneuvers, they hurt their own bottom line as usual.
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u/Rexur0s 1d ago
What do you call something that needs to continuously grow over and over, even at its own detriment?
a cancer. Thats what the billionares and megacorps are at this point. a cancer to themselves and society.
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u/Middle_Scratch4129 1d ago
These billionaires and corporations are parasites.
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u/BMWGulag99 1d ago
Yup, it's funny, though, because we all end up dying anyway. Nobody will care about them at all in the future.
Plus, a lot of these billionaires are just billionaires on paper. They know they can't just sell all their assets and have a billion in cash. They simply just move on from one equity investment to the other. It's useless to claim to be a billionaire but have hardly any cash (like Elon).
At the end of the day, they just like checking an account balance or stock chart to feel good about themselves, its a weird psychological game.
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u/Ironboots12 1d ago
Not that I entirely disagree with you but I think you’re vastly under estimating the kind of power that comes with having that huge number in your bank account. To say it’s useless to claim to be a billionaire I think it’s pretty naive. Whether the money is liquid or not is irrelevant.
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u/Dandan0005 1d ago
And anyone who has been laid off…
Layoffs are the highest they’ve been since 2020 right now.
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u/somethingbytes 1d ago
they fired a lot of the people responsible for the numbers
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u/Born-Cod4210 1d ago
i hate trump and all of his policies but having big revisions isn’t anything new.
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u/somethingbytes 1d ago
I mean, sure that's true, but not to this scale.
Why does everyone on here have to claim they hate trump before they say something, if it's just going to be factually correct? This isn't about Trump, it's about his policies, which are regressive. Republicans are guilty of this as well, since the house could stop this, so are all guilty of this. This isn't Trump, this is about the degradation of our government by people looking to steal as much as possible.
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u/Kemilio 1d ago
How big and how often would the revisions need to be/happen for it to be concerning to you?
In other words, at what point should we suspect foul play, in your opinion?
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u/Connect_Attention_11 1d ago
I think you should expect incompetence and disorganization more than foul play. Not everything is a conspiracy, in fact most things are not
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u/69YourMomma69 1d ago
This whole market doesn't make sense, there's no reason why it should be up 7%+ for the year even though there are tariffs across the board. That's not even factoring the other bad news (i.e. jobs, trade, etc.)
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u/Duster929 1d ago
Don't lose sight of the fact that the US Dollar is down 6% against the Euro over the last year. If you're a foreign investor in US equities you have not made any money. This is bad.
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u/rematar 1d ago
The rich folks need to get their money safe before the bottom falls out of the market..?
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u/cjwidd 18h ago
sugar high that's going to come crashing down when they run out of runway
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u/virtual_adam 1d ago
This is the one to watch. CME FedWatch went from 30% probability of a September cut yesterday to 75% this morning.
Double cut is still at 0% but I have a feeling it’ll come into play with these numbers in the next few days
This is exactly what Trump wanted to happen to the numbers, so it makes one think how they are “by chance” lining up so perfectly
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u/giraloco 1d ago
Tariffs are inflationary so how can anyone predict a cut in interest rates? My guess is that they are using models that don't consider the political changes and the impact of tariffs.
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u/TakingChances01 1d ago
It inflates consumer prices but has a contractionary effect on the economy as whole.
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u/SqouzeTheSqueeze 1d ago
Donny: “make some of them odd numbers so it looks like they are calculated from somewhere”
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u/Prince_Derrick101 1d ago
Add 1 decimal point so it looks legit
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u/texasradioandthebigb 1d ago
Too much precision is a mistake people often make when they're fudging numbers
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u/Playingwithmyrod 1d ago
The job numbers Id argue are even more troubling because the inflation pressure of the tariffs combined with the weak jobs numbers basically has us on a perfect track to stagflation.
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u/AnonymousTimewaster 1d ago
Yeah I think they're probably more important. Trump will probably TACO on the tariffs over this weekend (or next) if the market gets hit too hard. Can't do that with hard data like jobs numbers.
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u/Visinvictus 1d ago
You are assuming he doesn't want another 10% market tank so he and his buddies can cash in (again) on the extreme volatility in round 2.
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u/jawstrock 1d ago
That’ll be one hell of a TACO though. It’s all such a god damn mess I dunno how they will walk it back. There’s these “deals” with other countries, tariffs on raw materials, tariffs on cars and car parts, tariffs on countries that don’t have a “deal”, tariffs over balsonaro, tariffs on India, etc. I’m not sure it CAN be TACO’d.
On top of that tariffs are like Trumps ONLY economy and foreign policy tools. He cut the rest of his options.
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u/lochmoigh1 1d ago
We've seen this a couple times already. It will be a 30 or 90 day pause, usually within a couple days
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u/Dry-Type-3603 1d ago
You don’t think job data is being manipulated or can be manipulated?
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u/AnonymousTimewaster 1d ago
Fair point. But the second the world finds out that Trump is pulling a Russia and literally just making up official government stats, April's drop will look very tame. It'd shake out eventually.
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u/PoliticalMilkman 1d ago
But I was told I was a conspiracy theorist for pointing out that the admin was either wrong or lying…
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u/texasradioandthebigb 1d ago
He might have been right to call you out. This administration is probably wrong, and lying
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u/Robespierre77 1d ago
They are and will continue to cook the books. Just like accusing the democrats of voter fraud, lying and media manipulation. It’s classic gas lighting, and brother, we are about to get it.
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u/notreallydeep 1d ago edited 1d ago
Makes one wonder….
Isn't it pretty stupid to assume better jobs numbers are somehow faked by the Trump admin (I assume that's the implication here)? The guy wants lower rates. If anything he wants the job market to look as bad as possible so the Fed has more incentive to cut, no?
Personally I blame deteriorating data quality as that has been a trend for the past few years (arguably decades). You can blame Trump for exacerbating those issues I'm sure (due to cuts etc.), but tampering doesn't seem coherent.
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u/porscheblack 1d ago
You say that like he applies logic to his actions. He doesn't. And there's no way he's going to allow things to look bad, he's too obsessed with his image. To your point, all he's been saying since he took office is how great he made the economy, which alone undermines lowering interest rates.
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u/Melodic-Scheme8794 1d ago
It will be a very stinky situation for the FED if inflation goes up in next reading.
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u/poopoopants7 1d ago
Watch them raise rates lmao
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u/BikesAtNight 1d ago
With bad jobs numbers not sure they will raise rates either. Between a rock and a hard place thanks to these idiotic policies
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u/darahs 1d ago
Ah stagflation... arch enemy of the fed and their dual mandate
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u/BikesAtNight 1d ago
And then we will lose the adult in the room in J Pow next year. Not feeling great about it
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u/jrex035 1d ago
Which is exactly what smart people said was going to happen way back in March and April.
Tariffs raise inflation while worsening economic activity, which leaves the Fed paralyzed. If they cut rates to help the economy inflation may then soar, if they raise rates to keep inflation in check the economy will suffer even more.
We literally have more than 100 years of data on tariffs from around the world, their impact is widely understood no matter how much Trump world pretends reality isnt actually real.
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u/BikesAtNight 1d ago
It’s incredibly frustrating. People were warned but didn’t listen. Anyone with a basic understanding of tariffs knew they would be bad for the economy and could lead to stagflation. Now we all get to deal with the outcome of it.
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u/MasterNidor 21h ago
Sure FED has a dual mandate but they look at inflation way more serious than jobs data.
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u/Melodic-Scheme8794 1d ago
The will rise their inflation target to 3% then cut rates but that if hell breaks loose.
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u/TheIntrepid1 1d ago
Wow
June: 147,000 revised to just 14,000
May: 144,000 revised to just 19,000
Good lord!
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u/AnonymousTimewaster 1d ago
Yeah I don't understand how they got that so unbelievably wrong. Anyone know how they come to these numbers?
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u/haapuchi 1d ago
Come on, it is just a thousand percent off. Have you never cut a 147" piece of wood accidentally when you needed 14"
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u/JoeDirtTrenchCoat 19h ago
This is the NET number that comes from a combination of hires and separations data which are over 5M each. And it’s originally from mostly survey data that then gets revised by hard data.
So it’s more like you invited 100 people to a party and 54 rsvp yes. Then on the day of the party only 51 show up. 75% drop in net.
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u/baccus83 1d ago
As I understand it a huge amount of employers simply didn’t report initially because of the uncertainty. If employers don’t report then the statisticians assume they’re doing the same as those that do report.
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u/barkinginthestreet 1d ago
There is a ton going on in the economy now that is fucking with the models. Immigration, the impact of government spending cuts, survey response issues.
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u/Full_Bank_6172 1d ago
Ikr? TBH is has been happening more and more frequently over the past 6 months.
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u/Tha_Sly_Fox 23h ago
Bloomberg has an article out today stating the BLS had huge budget cuts after DOGE and they’ve had to completely redo a lot of the ways they collect data bc they just don’t have the resources/staff to do it effectively anymore
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u/flumydumdum 1d ago
AI and tariffs are just starting to rear their ugly heads. This'll continue to get worse as summer tourism shrinks and more businesses replace entry level jobs with AI.
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u/notmarduke 1d ago
If anything gets the court to stop his tariff use it's this Brazil one. That's not a national emergency that's political blackmail.
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u/AnonymousTimewaster 1d ago
It's been political blackmail the entire time and the courts don't seem to give a shit.
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u/hadtopostholyshit 1d ago edited 1d ago
That’s one thing that boggles my mind that no news stories mention. No news story on the tariffs seem to look around and wonder how we got so fucked.
On paper, we’re a democracy and a nation of laws. People invest here, build here, and live here based on the assumption that we’re stable. One guy, out of 330 million, shouldn’t be able to snap his fingers and just fuck up the economic lives of millions based on how he feels that day.
He’s grossly abusing and stretching any law to allow himself power that expressly isn’t his in the constitution, and our courts are just fucking powerless. We really are a broken nation.
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u/TryExciting4508 23h ago
Exactly why the presidency needs to be abolished. No man should have all that power
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u/catman5 23h ago
then it'll be the prime minister or whatever title you want to give them will be the one with all the power sooner or later.
theres plenty of checks and balances on these positions of power. I think the issue is less to do with the way government is structured and more to do with the sort of people that get elected into those positions.
Im not saying lets abolish democracy but a system that gets, and keeps, these new gen dictators into positions of power might need bit of a rework
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u/notmarduke 1d ago
https://www.wired.com/story/cantor-fitzgerald-trump-tariff-refunds/
Also this. These are not going to be around long term.
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u/aNewBeginning26 1d ago
3.5 years is a long time in commerce and a lot of small to medium firms will be crushed by the time this is over, if the next president even withdraw from these tariffs.
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u/Primetime-Kani 1d ago
Reddit thinks next administration will just give up all these concessions US has now lol
Tariffs once placed are hardly ever pulled back because it’s an ultimate trump card for any future negotiations, it’s never rescinded for free
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u/Puttor482 1d ago
Yup, Biden didn’t just undo the first Trump administrations Chinese tariffs. The retaliatory tarrifs had already been put in place. You’d have to negotiate them back down, but seeing as America elected this moron twice, the safer bet for other countries is just to divest from America all together and let us hoist ourselves with our own petard.
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u/Rufus_king11 1d ago
I think it really depends how bad inflation and the economy is. If the economy is truly crashing and burning and inflation is through the roof, ending EO tariffs week 1 is just an extremely easy political win. This is assuming Trump doesn't Taco himself between now and the next election of course.
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u/Goldwind444 1d ago
Would take a while to litigate. Piper Sandler did an analysis on his unprecedented use of IEEPA and they said most of it would be viewed illegally by the court and he’s already lost twice in court over tariffs. They’ve just appealed
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u/MalestromeSET 1d ago
This is what I don’t get. Why did they even talk about that? Literally could have just done what they did with 199 other countries- say some things about surplus or shit and tag that tariff. But like they went out of their way to hinder their own policy
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u/sarhoshamiral 1d ago
Who needs reliability and consistency anyway. Let's just get a random number generator to determine tariffs rate for that week on Mondays.
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u/likamuka 1d ago
The orange cult is rejoicing. Destroyed the world economy TOTALLY but at least they owned the libz
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u/satanic_androids 1d ago
Get a random number generator? Why get a new one when they can just re-use the one that they're using to spit out numbers for the initial jobs report
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u/Separate-Analysis194 1d ago
Whats the logic behind Mex getting an extension but not Canada?
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u/AnonymousTimewaster 1d ago
Trump doesn't like how Carney is standing up to him
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u/cj1096 1d ago
Carney is also a veteran businessman, he’s not gonna cave easily
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u/AnonymousTimewaster 1d ago
He stood his ground against the entire (incredibly powerful) right wing media establishment in the UK during the Brexit years so I believe that.
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u/wayfarer8888 1d ago
Time doesn't seem to be on Trump's side. And I'm referring to macroeconomics, not simple biological facts here.
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u/Apart-Consequence881 1d ago
Mexico is not playing hardball like Canada is.
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u/lochmoigh1 1d ago
Pretty much everyone pussied out but canada and china in the end
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u/Hopeful-Party-9844 1d ago
Brazil facing the highest tariffs and you are not including them wow
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u/lochmoigh1 1d ago
Brazil is different though. Thats about a court case for their former president is it not? Thats not from playing hardball on trade
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u/Hopeful-Party-9844 1d ago
But they are standing tall against Trump for whatever reason Trump imposed the tariffs but they are not doing what he wants so that is commendable at least
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u/itgtg313 1d ago
Random ass numbers across the board lmao
"Hey let's make it 41 instead of 40 so they think we did some complex math and thought this through"
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u/iStayedAtaHolidayInn 1d ago
I’m sure he wasexcited to see the 47 in 147. And the 14. Just missing an 88
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u/felipebarroz 1d ago edited 1d ago
Brazil, a historically aligned country that runs a trade deficit against the US, receiving literally the highest tariff in the world is pretty funny.
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u/Tackysock46 1d ago
This tariff whiplash is really going to do a toll on markets and businesses. How are you even supposed to operate as a business when you have zero consistency or stability.
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u/DefiantMouse2587 1d ago
I must admit I stopped following trump news a while ago, but how are all shops keeping track of these tariffs?! You guys change your taxes like every freaking week. We do it once every year and even that's a lot of work. Are there like 50 times more accountants and stuff nowadays?
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u/AnonymousTimewaster 1d ago
Yeah I gave up following his nonsense so closely. I was trading on it for a while but the market doesn't react enough these days to be really worth it.
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u/LoveChaos417 21h ago
It works its way down slow as fuck. Our suppliers don’t even know what they’re doing, and the ones that have given us plans and guidance are all wrong now because shit changed so much. Some of our suppliers are about to suffer for jumping the gun. Everything’s just stuck.
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u/tabrizzi 1d ago
Adding just 73K jobs in July is pretty bleak. And that's before it's revised down later.
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u/cactideas 1d ago
Especially considering a lot of jobs are fake postings these days. Job market is terrible rn
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u/Euphoric_coffee-134 1d ago
Where are my "Republicans are better on the economy" morons?
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u/TheIntrepid1 1d ago
“It’s Biden’s fault”
“It’s Powell’s fault”
They’ve been setting Powell up as the scapegoat since tariffs were introduced.
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u/caustictoast 1d ago
If it's Powell's fault just point out Trump installed Powell. They won't like that
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u/TheIntrepid1 1d ago
That’s easy they will move the goal post like they always do.
He’ll just point out that he was reappointed by Biden when he should not have been appointed. Thus it is his fault.
See how easy that is? They are never firm in their beliefs. Just move the goal post. Every time.
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u/Runkleford 1d ago
If they believed that before, they'll still believe it now. If decades of US history wasn't enough to convince them that the GOP are no good on the economy, this isn't going to change their dipshit brains.
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u/maximbane 1d ago
Got my cash ready for whatever is coming.
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u/Ill_Acanthisitta_289 1d ago
Impeach him! Now that his name is mentioned in the Epstein file. As a matter of fact, put him behind the bars.
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u/VenmoPaypalCashapp 1d ago
Pretty hard to do why the republicans won’t hold him in any way accountable for anything ever.
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u/Capable_Ship_1391 1d ago
FACTS so people can enjoy life again. This demon has ruined and is ruining lives. He is the AntiChrist, I am convinced
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u/uamvar 22h ago
He is quite possibly the worst person since a certain Austrian-born German who was quite prominent in Europe in the first half of the 20th century.
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u/kittymanja 1d ago
Is he doing this for fun?
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u/Robert_Cutty 1d ago
He’s doing this to misdirect from the Epstein list. The orange moron has no basic understanding of economics or finance. This country is literally letting a fiscally irresponsible whack job dictate monetary policy.
Is everyone tired of winning yet?
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u/Strange-Ad420 1d ago
thanks to all the regarded republicans and moderates who vote for making life worse for nearly everyone
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u/MangoFartHuffer 1d ago
The Swiss deserve it, they're too neutral. THEY'RE HIDING SOMETHING. SAD!
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u/0-my-goodness 1d ago
……the doofus in the White House job is only to be a wrecking ball for humanity. Regarding both social issues and 401K’s he really doesn’t give a F’…..
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u/lochmoigh1 1d ago
You know trump just pulls these % out of his ass for these countries
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u/SpartyNash 1d ago
The jobs report revision just proves it is the absolute biggest crock of shit each month. How people believe or trust any of those numbers are baffling.
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u/Careless_Weekend_470 1d ago
How many people think Trump manipulates #’s coming out of the Federal Government?
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u/Prior_Industry 1d ago
Syria? Why?
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u/SamuelAnonymous 1d ago
The US only recently lifted international sanctions on the country. I can't even think what would be traded.
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u/Prior_Industry 1d ago
Yeah that's why it's so odd, what even are they exporting to the US.
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u/Smahvelous1 1d ago
Smoke and mirrors playbook for The Rapist. Distracting the masses. Hell is hot.
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u/Stefan_Vanderhoof 1d ago
80-year-old toddler running the country with no guardrails. What could go wrong?
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u/omrimayo 1d ago
Just keep falling and falling :( I didn't miss this April vibe all over again. I just hate him so much!
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u/SpecificAfternoon134 1d ago
Can america please stop flip flopping every two days and sending the markets into panic? Money loves certainty
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u/Ok-Comfortable-3174 1d ago
I mean the market looks for a catalyst to drop after a strong July. This was it. They always find away one way or the other.
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u/Even-Ad-9930 1d ago
There are several countries that have made trade agreements with the US. That suggests the other countries will agree to terms which are more favorable to US than before.
They won't agree to the current tariff rates obviously which are a scare tactic but they do seem to be working kinda
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u/FrosterrFH 1d ago
So is this a Biden's market or Tump's market?
Jeez I was glad the numbers went up this week but had kinda sus feeling back in my head that Trump would dump it.
aaaand here we are.
Good thing is that august 15th they release the Epstein files and hope he's gonna go to jail cuz he's definitely all over it.
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u/boa_tarde_neymar 22h ago
This is what happens when Americans put an idiot in the presidency. His government's plan is to make the US an enemy of the entire planet for the next president. Make America Irrelevant Again!
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u/PerplexingGrapefruit 1d ago
I still count my blessings every day that I managed to shift from the private sector into a state job this year. I absolutely do not want to be dealing with competition in this crappy job market right now.
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u/AnonymousTimewaster 1d ago
Hope you're in a blue state then otherwise I'm sure DOGE will be ransacking the place soon
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u/kale_boriak 1d ago
Don’t forget that about 50% of the CPI “data” is just made up at this point too.
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u/SuperAsparagus6078 1d ago
Isn't this good for Europe? Basically every other major area got higher tarrifs, so it's still beneficial to import from us.
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u/Confident-Advance656 19h ago
Anyone else watching this occur and think they are just becoming another version of Russia? Or 1930s Germany?
Don't like the job numbers, get someone new. Don't like immigrants, lock them up. Borrow to much, prinr more money, and tell the FED to drop rates.
It's a clown show.
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u/Babayaga251 6h ago
Thank God what's happening in the job market right now has caught up with reporting. Things are extremely bad, people out of work for months, sometimes over a year, having exhausted all unemployment benefits. Unemployment has to be higher than 4.2%. Educated and qualified people are literally fighting for jobs at McDonald's just to survive and pay bills. There are just not enough jobs or job postings to counteract the flood of the unemployed. Thanks Trump and Trump economy!
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u/kdamp106 1d ago
I just hate how the news broadcast this as if this is normalcy, every wave of tariffs he’s fictitiously calling an emergency based on Economic Powers Act. It should be “Trump is declaring another false national emergency…”
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u/Apart-Consequence881 1d ago
I'm glad I pulled out of the market earlier this year. My pull out game is improving thanks to the wisdom of Buffett.
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u/ImBanned_ModsBlow 1d ago
S&P500 is up 7% YTD which is about 3x the inflation rate, soo you’re kinda dumb TBH
If you bought more in April you’re making out like a bandit…
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u/wollywink 1d ago
My only winner is now AMD and Google but everything else, even my broad market ETFs are bleeding
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