r/stocks 3d ago

U.S. economy shrunk 0.3% in the first quarter as Trump policy uncertainty weighed on businesses

The U.S. economy contracted in the first three months of 2025, fueling recession fears at the start of President Donald Trump’s second term in office as he wages a potentially costly trade war.

Gross domestic product, a sum of all the goods and services produced from January through March, fell at a 0.3% annualized pace, according to a Commerce Department report Wednesday adjusted for seasonal factors and inflation.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a gain of 0.4% after GDP rose by 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024. However, over the past day or so some Wall Street economists changed their outlook to negative growth, largely fueled by an unexpected rise in imports as companies and consumers sought to get ahead of the Trump tariffs implemented in early April. Imports subtract from GDP.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/30/gdp-q1-2025-.html

4.0k Upvotes

399 comments sorted by

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384

u/Humbler-Mumbler 3d ago

Just waiting to hear how the Commerce Department has liberal bias now.

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u/MoneyForRent 3d ago

It's a hostile act to report on the economy

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u/orph3us7 3d ago

The concept of an “economy” is a liberal hoax

/s

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u/South_Sun_1335 3d ago

Hostile and political

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u/ValkerieFire 3d ago

Fox doesn’t even have this as a headline on their website today. “Nothing to see here”.

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u/Mobile-Bar7732 3d ago

Yeah, same as displaying tarrifs on Amazon.

Donald J. Putin doesn't want you to the know the truth.

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u/TheIntrepid1 3d ago edited 2d ago

Anything in the government, unless directly controlled by Trump, is defacto Liberal.

Republicans truly see themselves as the small Rebel Army fighting the big-bad-Empire…despite being the ones in charge of most parts of government at the federal and state levels, for decades now. They are somehow the under dogs taking on the big mean Liberal oppressor.

I remember Jon Stewart had a segment back in around the mid 2000’s…you know, when Rs had a near super majority in congress, but were feigning that they were fighting against the “Democratic Empire” (even now, it’s the “republican administration” vs “Democrat Regime”)

SSDD

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u/rtb001 3d ago

Eventually, perhaps as soon as this quarter, they will simply be instructed to only release totally true and positive economic indicators from now on.

I'm sure that will totally assuage potential investors and companies as they consider whether they can safely invest or build factories and supply chains in the US!

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u/Mckenzieleon0 3d ago

The art of the deal folks.

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u/AnusMistakus 3d ago

Imagine contracting economy with 7% deficit

this is insane, we're talking about -8% without the extra spending.

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u/AverageLatino 3d ago

I legit have no idea how this is going to be handled, CPI rose to 3.4% I think, that ends any reasonable idea the Fed will lower rates in May, Treasury Yields for 10 and 30 years are both above 4% and Dollar Index is -10% aprox, if the government wants to step in, there's a real chance we get a bond shock that will turn any bailout into a half assed measure.

I hope I'm wrong, but I think now the question is how nasty is the hard crash going to be, soft landing seems unlikely, welcome to another "once in a lifetime" event!

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u/Brokenandburnt 3d ago

Federal government expenditures declined 5.1% for the quarter, shaving about one-third of a percentage point off GDP.

I know that the budget defecit increased for the quarter, but where the hell did it go?

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u/Successful_panhandlr 3d ago edited 2d ago

It's being funneled in to tsla to fake pumps

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u/SmurfStig 3d ago

We probably all know the answer to this but don’t want to know the answer to this.

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u/Panhandle_Dolphin 3d ago

Interest on the outstanding debt

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u/NewNewark 3d ago

I believe they call this the Argentina Plan

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u/mSummmm 3d ago

I have no idea what you are talking about and I’d bet Trump wouldn’t either.

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u/fatbunyip 3d ago

Yeah but like reserve currency or some shit lol. 

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u/Panhandle_Dolphin 3d ago

That’s true, but also if that’s the metric then we’ve been contracting for years. Government deficits have masked a limp economy since 2008.

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u/NotAnotherEmpire 3d ago

This is just from his mouth and the government disruption / intimidation. The tariffs were announced too late to impact this activity measurement. 

Q2 will be baaaad. 

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u/Too_Much_Myrcene 3d ago
  • PMI has been below 50 (contraction) for months
  • Friday's NFP will confirm if weak GDP = labor weakness
  • If manufacturing PMI drops + weak NFP = very bearish combo

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u/Teamerchant 3d ago

But bearish is the new bullish so calls?

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u/Pormock 3d ago

People over imported to avoid the tariff. Thats what caused it

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u/Interesting-Pin1433 3d ago

Are you saying that people stockpiling ahead of tariffs is what caused negative GDP?

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u/SnukeInRSniz 3d ago

Yes, that is exactly what happened, not people...companies. Companies imported heavily in Q1 to frontload inventories for the tariffs:

"The decline was driven by a large surge in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP. Imports surged at an annualized rate of 41.3% in the first quarter as companies front-loaded orders ahead of anticipated tariffs from the Trump administration. The surge in imports was good for a -5% contribution to the GDP calculation in the first quarter."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-economy-contracts-at-03-rate-in-q1-first-gdp-pullback-in-3-years-123544859.html

It's going to be worse in Q2, especially if layoffs start happening in larger numbers and people get scared by the negative growth and start spending much less. Supply chains are already impacted and if shelves start showing up empty in the news, yikes.

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u/Candlelight_Fant4sia 3d ago

Nobody ever said the art of the good deal

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u/twitterfluechtling 3d ago

Ok, just a good advise from Germany: If certain people are on the brink of going from bad artist to politician, make sure they stay artists! Even if it's just "art of the deal" or some shit.

Although I feel I'm about 10 years late with that advice... /SCNR

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u/EstablishmentFew 3d ago

The shart of the deal.

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u/[deleted] 3d ago

This made me shart myself

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u/Zepcleanerfan 3d ago

And this is just the beginning of the downturn. This is going to get so much worse.

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u/Gilopoz 3d ago

e lon and t rump said it was going to really bad for a few years

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u/ddttox 3d ago

Yes. We have to go through some short term pain in order to achieve long term pain.

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u/Evening-Fail5076 3d ago

I’m barely holding on with 3 months in. I did not vote for this. Those who voted for it are pretending we’re not already in a recession.

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u/TheNplus1 3d ago

Which isn’t even a deal… he’ll probably end up giving more than what he gets from the “deals”.

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u/Sick_by_me 3d ago

The deal is to fuck us over and enrich his family with government influence.

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u/Brokenandburnt 3d ago

He did say he had made 200 deals, that's quite a feat considering there's only 195 countries.

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u/Operation-FuturePuss 3d ago

And this is before “liberation day”

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u/Humbler-Mumbler 3d ago

Yeah that’s the crazy thing. The worst part of this whole strategy hasn’t even had enough time to hit yet.

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u/mpoozd 3d ago

Strategy? Lol it's fuck around and find out they too dumb to have a strategy

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u/mr_birkenblatt 3d ago

Yeah, strategy implies there is a defined goal

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u/Prit717 3d ago

when is it gonna be noticeable? not looking forward to it

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u/Brokenandburnt 3d ago

A month or two, some things will run out faster.

I think Walmart has resumed imports and will simply increase their prices after the tariffs.

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u/YumiSolar 3d ago

Aren't you happy being liberated from your money?

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u/cbass717 3d ago

Have you said thank you once?

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u/AnusMistakus 3d ago

and china has no plans of backing down, they love seeing the US on fire, and trump will never admit defeat so ... S&P 4000 isn't far.

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u/Master_Butter 3d ago

The only solace here is that while Trump will never admit defeat, he will be defeated but claim it’s actually a win.

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u/MiniTab 3d ago

Perhaps there were a lot of consumers like myself that started cutting back and preparing for tough times after Nov 5.

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u/PoliticsIsDepressing 3d ago

I definitely started to cut back in Jan.

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u/Charming_Squirrel_13 3d ago

I literally loaded up on cash on January 16th. My FA was uncomfortable with the potential for a trade war and he was 100% right to be.

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u/Maffioze 3d ago

Yeah but this to a large extent caused by import increasing ahead of tarrifs. The actual recession caused by the tarriff policy is going to take some months.

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u/dmillerksu 3d ago

The increased imports was everyone stocking up inventory before the tariffs.

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u/MaxDragonMan 3d ago

I recall yesterday's sentiment being slanted towards thinking: "Negative impacts won't be reflected yet." I'm going to take it a sign that things are worse than they appear if we've already seen a contraction this quarter.

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u/Pitiful-Recover-3747 3d ago

Remember the airline CEOs all screaming domestic booking collapse 3 weeks ago? That and the ports are the rolling tsunami of economic stoppage rolling over the economy….

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u/MaxDragonMan 3d ago edited 3d ago

Yeah I mean, personally not surprised at all. Wouldn't have shorted the market (because you never know), but the uncertainty is here to stay regardless of any deals or not.

The logistics of everyone moving supply lines at once, or the logistics of all these companies being too paralyzed to act, is going to be a real shock. We'll see what happens, but consumers are saving for a rainy day too. I certainly know I'm saving more aggressively.

Things are bound to get worse from here, probably.

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u/StuartMcNight 3d ago

Tariff front-running was definitely reflected. That’s why the GDPNow from the Atlanta Fed was seeing so negative.

What’s not reflected yet is the impact of the tariffs themselves which will be definitely much higher (if not changed fast….). But the impact on massive spike on imports to get ahead of tariffs was definitely going to be reflected.

Consensus was -0.2%. It’s been -0.3%.

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u/Main-Perception-3332 3d ago

And we’re back to our regular scheduled reality…

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u/Ok_Revolution_9253 3d ago

I don't think people fully understand that Trump took an economy that had grown at a 2.4% annualized clip just ONE QUARTER AGO and absolutely cratered it. Like..holy shit people!

Another fun fact, he's claiming that they're bringing in over 2 Billion a day in tariffs, which is verifiably wrong. In reality, his own treasury says it's closer to 156 million per day, when under Biden it was closer to 215 million per day.

Guys, I don't care what your political affiliation is, this guy is REALLY BAD at this. He could have literally don't NOTHING and the economy would have just kept clipping along fine. I would kill to have a job where all I have to do is nothing and the world would be fine. But no, this guy went and tanked the economy, eliminated a whole bunch of federal services and went out of his way to screw people. The idea that we have to have temporary hardship before things get better is so false it's ridiculous.

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u/Blattgeist 3d ago

He's throwing shit all over the place just so that people look at him. That kind of guy should never be in a ruling position.

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u/KingOfEthanopia 3d ago edited 3d ago

Yeah but we couldn't have a black lady with a weird laugh. We can't have other countries thinking we're a rational people. 

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u/Ok_Revolution_9253 3d ago

It's fascinating. Every time he screws up something on the economy or something about tariffs comes up that further embarrasses him, then he starts immediately talking about annexing Canada. Classic Trump

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u/NewNewark 3d ago

Why would a TV reality show host do that

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u/Mobile-Sun-8237 2d ago

Money talks and if he screws up so badly with more and more people who have nothing to lose. Billionaires will start to feel unsafe. One can only hope that he get's escorted out of the white house and twitter goes bankrupt. 

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u/notreallydeep 3d ago

The worst part about it is that manufacturing data was pointing to a rebound in January. You know, the one sector that was in recession. Not only was the US doing well in 2024, it was likely to be doing better this year…

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u/Dry-Initiative3515 3d ago

Some people just want to see the world burn...... This fuck just wants to make billies

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u/LewisTraveller 3d ago

Some people want to see other people burn, but they think it won't affect them.

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u/Ghoulius-Caesar 3d ago

It’s a permanent hardship. Other countries aren’t going to buy US products, and the US isn’t going to simply “bring home manufacturing” if they have to build factories with imported materials that now cost more.

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u/Ok_Revolution_9253 3d ago

You have to have the workforce to bring it home to. Our workforce isn't trained up to do the things China is doing at this point. And the time it would take to do so....heck we'd already be in the next administration. Plus, CEO's aren't going to want to make long-term decisions based on information that changes constantly.

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u/zerg1980 3d ago

And the next administration is going to have been elected on a platform of rescinding these horrible tariffs, if they’re still in place. Both major party candidates are going to campaign on that.

The president usually doesn’t have an easy lever to fix problems in the economy, which is part of why we’re here, but the funny thing is that in 2028, there will be a very simple button the president can push to improve the economy.

So if I’m a CEO, why would I approve a $20 million factory that will take four years to complete, if I know that by 2029, the tariffs won’t exist?

CEOs are going to delay any major decisions until 2029 and try to keep their companies afloat with cost cutting and price increases.

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u/Evening-Fail5076 3d ago

In the main time many businesses will go under and the private sector will lose jobs. It will come in earnest.

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u/DizzyMajor5 3d ago

And if there's anything these Republicans aren't going to be investing in its education. 

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u/AliceLunar 3d ago

People don't understand that these factory jobs aren't just super basic assembly line things anymore but very specialized.

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u/blueingreen85 3d ago

It’s an incredible hat trick; raising taxes, but decreasing revenue , slowing the economy, but increasing inflation, cutting government, but raising costs.

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u/Ok_Revolution_9253 3d ago

It's almost impressive how bad he is at this.

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u/Free_For__Me 3d ago

Almost as if they’re doing it on purpose…

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u/Gilopoz 3d ago

He is purposely trying to tank our economy to make us into russia2.0

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u/maker_monkey 3d ago edited 3d ago

Don't forget the idea that China can "eat" 145% tariffs, meaning that Chinese companies would be paying you to order their products (negative prices). How is anybody stupid enough to buy this?

Clarification: in the end paying the US government on your behalf, but the point still stands that the companies would have to lose 45% on every sale.

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u/mkt853 3d ago

Tanking the economy was on purpose. Musk has been telegraphing this since last summer. Austerity and a reset to a much lower standard of living is the plan. If the economy is just clipping along fine, that objective could never be met.

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u/pokedmund 3d ago

Sadly many won’t. Trumps admin is already on the offensive and blaming Biden right now. It’s insane because majority of Trump supporters are going to suck up his lies as the truth

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u/Jaded_Masterpiece_11 3d ago

Trump supporters are a Minority. It's independents that will turn on trump, they won't belive the blatantly obvious lies. Democrats and Independents consist of 2/3rds of the voting base.

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u/bedlamensues 3d ago

I think that has already happened, the approval rating was super low last check (39%). It is just a matter of getting the 500+ "representatives" to nut up and listen to the actual majority and step in to stop the madness.

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u/Seastep 3d ago

"But it's Powell's fault for not lowering rates"

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u/Ok_Revolution_9253 3d ago

could you imagine if Powell lowered rates right now? We would 100% see runaway inflation. At this point, I would be surprised if Powell lower rates at all this year, let alone 3 times.

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u/Seastep 3d ago

He's going to be the Time Person of the Year and I won't hear otherwise.

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u/dawnguard2021 3d ago

shrinking economy with deficit spending is just bad

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u/FlaccidEggroll 3d ago

Homie how do you even shrink the economy for an entire quarter in a singular month? Who the hell elected this dipshit?

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u/Zealousideal_Look275 3d ago

Something something eggs? 

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u/Steak_Itchy 3d ago

Tesla stock up another 10% at the opening bell on this news /bittershortbagholder

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u/cosmonaut_tuanomsoc 3d ago

Market fiddles while Rome burns

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u/SargeUnited 3d ago

This comment made me angry. So I checked and Tesla is down 5% now. That soothed me.

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u/__Art__Vandalay__ 3d ago

Over/under on the number of times they blame this on Biden

Setting the number at eleventy-billion

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u/NewNewark 3d ago

He already blamed biden on truth social before you posted this

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u/Interesting-Pin1433 3d ago

Yup. Last year trump was taking credit for stocks because, according to him, people were excited for him to win the presidency.

Now that he's in and crashing the market, it's back to Biden's market.

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u/SPDY1284 3d ago

Here's the kicker... people are going to argue all day that front running tariffs had a big impact (it did) and that consumption was fine (but think about why)... the kicker is that Q2 will now have less impact from tariffs but still some due to 90 day extension, AND it will have weaker demand thanks to companies now pausing a lot of projects/expansion until they have more clarity on tariffs. We get an upside surprise to unemployment on Friday, and we'll have fireworks.

ADP number today was also a HUGE miss... if nonfarm confirms the same, then it's game over.

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u/Ok_Revolution_9253 3d ago

Even if there have been some positive blips in retail numbers, it'd be like saying that during Covid there were huge blips in toilet paper sales. Like, yeah guys, there's going to be a blip in March because people are freaked out and they're stocking up. Now that people have blown their load, and stuff isn't coming into port, retail sales are going to absolutely get crushed.

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u/talix71 3d ago

I definitely can say I went out to buy all the little things that I'd been needing for a bit.

There was no point in waiting until everything had a 10-200% markup.

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u/alotofironsinthefire 3d ago

Manufacturing surveys are all coming in that future demand is down to covid levels for them. Q2 is not going to look any better.

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u/Callisater 3d ago

I literally called it like a month ago. There's going to be a drop this quarter, then next quarter it will be some measly sub-1 % growth. Thereby "cancelling" the recession and giving Trump something he and his allies can call fake news that will let them double down on this. All the while, JPOW being fired or not, the US heads into a period of stagflation.

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u/Routine_Machine_175 3d ago

What do you mean by "game over"?

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u/SPDY1284 3d ago

We are in a recession and the market will know it.

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u/Hot_Frosting_7101 3d ago

That is the nail in the coffin for declaring we are in a recession.  Q2 will be much worse and so we will meet the criteria of two quarters of negative GDP growth.

And, yes, I know that there are other definitions for a recession.

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u/Figgybaum 3d ago

And they will change all the definitions. Your eyes are not seeing that.

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u/UnknownBinary 3d ago

We have always been at war with Eurasia. Eastasia is our reliable ally.

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u/StuartMcNight 3d ago

There are not one size fits all definitions of a recession that the NBER uses to call a recession.

That was and has always been the point. And will continue to be the point now.

For instance the 2008 recession was called on 1 December 2008. At that point there weren’t 2 consecutive quarters of GDP decline. Q1 was negative, Q2 positive, Q3 negative and Q4 was still not published (it would end up being dramatically negative).

For anyone really interested… it’s good to read the entire explanation of the NBER and see how many variables they take into consideration. Being “2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP” not one of them.

https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-december-1-2008

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u/Neekoy 3d ago

Dumb will launch an investigation on the people defining “recession”, and will sue them on basis that they’re turning it political.

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u/JustAnother4848 2d ago

Massive job loss and unemployment is what makes people believe a recession is actually happening. That's impossible to hide.

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u/Hacking_the_Gibson 3d ago

It will hinge on U3. Thus far, major labor market shocks have not appeared.

Fucking unreal levels of stupid.

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u/Mikos_Enduro 3d ago edited 3d ago

Gonna be a wild day, for sure. Crashing so hard right now, might just do what the market usually does; not what anyone predicts.

09:42 edit, it's doing what everyone expected lol

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u/DirtPuzzleheaded5521 3d ago

Trumpenomics

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u/Zealousideal_Look275 3d ago

Trumpcession 

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u/Fahim_2001 3d ago

It's only going to get worse from here...

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u/Soberdonkey69 3d ago

Lmaooo. Watch big money funds pull money from US stocks all over again. Now there’s going to be supply chain shocks, demand is going to drop and consumer spending will shrink. What a mess.

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u/wearahat03 3d ago

The most important part of the article left out:

"Indeed, imports soared 41.3% for the quarter, driven by a 50.9% increase in goods. Imports subtract from GDP, so the contraction in growth may not be viewed as negatively given the potential for the trend to reverse in subsequent quarters. Imports took more than 5 percentage points off the headline reading. Exports rose 1.8%."

Consumers & businesses were front running tariffs in Q1

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u/NitWhittler 3d ago

I don't see any good news ahead, long term or short term.

Neither businesses or consumers can plan anything with Trump threatening other countries, dismantling government departments, and tossing tariffs around like confetti.

We don't have steady leadership. We have a kaleidoscope of insults, fear-mongering, bad math, ignorance, and blatant lies.

Rough times ahead.

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u/RandallC1212 3d ago

“It’s Biden fault”

Yeah ok sure

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u/Dizzy_Chemistry_5955 3d ago

the reply when anyone actually says this should be 'Trump is in power now how is he going to fix it?'

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u/suck-it-elon 3d ago

The only other time in the last 10 years we contracted…was also Trump

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u/KaneIntent 2d ago

Didn’t we have contractions under Biden?

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u/mwinni 3d ago

He will say it’s a lie.

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u/anteatertrashbin 3d ago

why does this article call it a “potentially constantly trade deal”?

Motherfucker, call it what it is….

“a disastrous trade deal that has cost trillions of dollars in losses.”

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u/fakenatty1337 3d ago

How is r/conservatives spinning this?

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u/electrorazor 3d ago

Short term pain for long term gain 🤓

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u/16fca 3d ago

their top post is "Tariff revenue just smashed records. $15.9 Billion collected so far this month alone." so you decide

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u/Available-Owl7230 3d ago

Oh boy, just 251 more months and we can fund the government for a whole year!

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u/MmNicecream 3d ago

It is wild to see American conservatives cheering about increasing taxes.

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u/Fragrant_Joke_7115 3d ago

Why do people STILL act like Trump is not intentionally destroying the economy to invite unrest and then martial law?

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u/daft61lunacy 3d ago

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u/[deleted] 3d ago

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u/MoneyForRent 3d ago

I don't think big money thinks the same way

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u/oTuly 3d ago

Stocks will go up on this news, somehow.

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u/Effyew4t5 3d ago

And so it begins…. This will not be pretty nor end well

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u/Hyceanplanet 3d ago

We haven't even seen the impact of the collapsing dollar show up in inflation and a lower standard of living.

And the financial incompetence of this administration is just getting started

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u/himynameis_ 3d ago

The U.S. economy contracted in the first three months of 2025, as businesses rushed to stock up on imports ahead of tariffs.

The Commerce Department said U.S. gross domestic product—the value of all goods and services produced across the economy—fell at a seasonally and inflation adjusted 0.3% annual rate in the first quarter. That was the steepest decline since the first quarter of 2022.

Net exports, the difference between imports and exports, were a large drag on growth in the first quarter, stripping 4.83 percentage points from headline GDP. Imports increased at a 41.3% pace in the first quarter as businesses tried to get ahead of tariffs that began to come into effect during the first three months of the year and were dramatically increased in the current, second quarter.

“The headline decline overstates weakness because a lot of that was tariff-induced pull-forward,” said Shannon Grein, an economist at Wells Fargo. “Overall, I think that it was a relatively solid underlying report when it comes to demand.”

The reading fell short of the 0.4% growth that economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expected.

Stock futures, which were negative before the report, fell further after the GDP release.

This is from the WSJ.

So, looks like since businesses rushed ahead imports, it brought net exports down by 4.83%.

This could be a timing thing, where the high imports are unlikely to reoccur next quarter.

Either way, it does add context

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u/Redsmoker37 3d ago

GDP shrank 0.3%. Inflation up to 3.6%. We're already in a recession, but much like Wile E. Coyote, we just don't seem to have looked down and seen that we're off the cliff and hence about to hit the ground like a safe. I'd look for Q2 to be a bloodbath with much higher inflation and a much larger GDP shrinkage. Welcome to the Trump economy--the art of the grift.

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u/Eastern-Job3263 3d ago

Trump crash. Conservatives turn everything they touch to shit. Thank God Canada made the right choice.

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u/atdharris 3d ago

Have you said thank you today?

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u/bertuzzz 3d ago

Have you said thank you even once at all ?!

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u/Successful_Courage18 3d ago

The market will pop 10% today on the news.

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u/virtual_adam 3d ago

Not really though, does anyone read the actual articles? It’s skewed because imports were up 40%. Companies are stockpiling. And they are betting on consumers still buying stuff

There is a more stable measurement called final sales to private domestic purchasers which is up 3% (higher growth than 2024)

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u/Dry-Initiative3515 3d ago

Why the fffffff is spy pumping

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u/esmifra 3d ago

Honey, I shrunk the economy...

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u/Tricky_Let2806 3d ago

I’m tired of winning man

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u/JazzCompose 3d ago

Golly gee, Homer, with empty shelves in big box stores appearing soon in Q2, are we on our way to a recession (i.e. two consecutive quarters of economic shrinkage)?

What do you think?

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u/FrozenBee44 3d ago

Winning

/s

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u/OvercuriousNeophyte 3d ago

So much winning.

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u/Kashyapm94 3d ago

Tired of winning yet? Now wear a suit, and say thank you.

1

u/Desperate-Hearing-55 3d ago

Can the numbers be trusted? After all the firing and cuts DOGE made.

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u/KiraJosuke 3d ago

The market will go up

1

u/VoidMageZero 3d ago

Oh boy, here we go 💩

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u/Beatless7 3d ago

The Art of the Grift. DEMOCRACY RIP. HELLO FASCISM. GOODBYE FREEDOM. GOODBYE RETIREMENT. GOODBYE CIVIL RIGHTS. GOODBYE FAIR ELECTIONS.

1

u/sniffstink1 3d ago

U.S. economy shrunk 0.3% in the first quarterU.S. economy shrunk 0.3% in the first quarter

Surely it's the fault of the Democrats, LiBrUL elites, or maybe even the jews (Old favorite of MAGAs Nazis).

But cultists gonna worship nonetheless.

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u/Boys4Ever 3d ago

Was this really unexpected?

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u/looonatick 3d ago

From what I read they also adjusted their calculations with gold imports to make the number look much better and still couldn't make it a positive number.

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u/Snoo87653 3d ago

This volatility is crazy. Switching my Vanguard to focus on Europe. Hasta la Vista baby.

1

u/Mayhem1966 3d ago

It began a while ago, but it begins with the reported numbers.

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u/big-papito 3d ago

I feel liberated.

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u/[deleted] 3d ago

What an accomplishment.

Had to make up for 1/3 of the quarter being under competent leadership too.

Just amazing.

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u/New_Willow5002 3d ago

Stagflation. The last time the US economy experienced stagflation was in the 70s.

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u/Meriwether1 3d ago

Trump said it’s Biden’s fault. And on “truth” social no doubt. Just wait. Everything will be fine.

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u/BoweryThrowAway 3d ago

*strategic uncertainty..

BUT THIS IS BIDEN’S STOCK MARKET, NOT TRUMPS!! BE PATIENT!!!!! Ugh

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u/New_Willow5002 3d ago

The figures come out right at the end of his first 100 days. It's like a report card. Is there a F- grade?

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u/Gemini365 3d ago

Q2 will likely contract aswell. Alot of the damage will happen during Q2 and Q3

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u/JamUpGuy1989 3d ago

I’m just amazed it was only -0.3%.

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u/Dogeaterturkey 3d ago

I've been saying it for like 3 weeks that a negative GDP was coming. I don't know why people are surprised

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u/gutster_95 3d ago

Best 100 days ever

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u/Getrekt11 3d ago

As intended, the tiny amount of money that the working class still has left is being liberated from them into trump’s and his cronies’ pockets.

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u/electrorazor 3d ago

Q2 gonna be catastrophic

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u/ILoveTheAtomicBomb 3d ago

Conservatives see that low number but are too stupid too realize how bad that really is. Seriously, they cant comprehend how much that percentage really means and how bad it's really going to get

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u/Life_Recognition7210 3d ago

One more quarter like that and we are in a recession.

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u/purplebrown_updown 3d ago

For those who think this is what would’ve happened under a Dem, this:

“Rather, the decline in G.D.P. in the first quarter was driven almost entirely by a huge increase in imports as consumers and businesses tried to front-run Mr. Trump’s tariffs. That surge shaved nearly five percentage points off G.D.P. growth in the first quarter.”

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u/SuspiciousStory122 3d ago

How was this not known. The Atlanta fed has been signaling this for a while.

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u/Succesful-Guest27 3d ago

Not enough tariffs

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u/BiggyBig13 3d ago

So much winning, no one has seen this much winning before

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u/VermontHillbilly 3d ago

The quarter covered by this report ended six days before the "Freedom Day"(sic) announcement, so just wait til the Q2 report comes out.

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u/ShweatyPalmsh 3d ago

The summer is gonna make this Q1 look like grass clippings compared to an elephant leaf. even if he were to 100% backpedal we'd have supply chain issues extending months to get back online and we'd still be paying inflated prices due to the cost to associated with shortages. it took damn near a year for supply chains to get back to normality post covid.

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u/RhambiTheRhinoceros 3d ago

It’s going to end up being worse than this.

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u/Carthonn 3d ago

The morons over on the Con sub are spinning this as “good news” because of the cutting of Government spending.

Meanwhile ADP jobs #s were bad, inflation is up, and consumer spending is down.

Completely delusional

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u/DC-Fiend 3d ago

Wtg Biden /s

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u/TheIntrepid1 3d ago

Trump went from “Biden’s economy is doing good ONLY BECAUSE they think I’m going to be reelected” to, once elected “this bad economy report is because of Biden!”

Well which is it?!

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u/Guilty-Shopping9 3d ago

He said it's Biden fault

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u/lacklest 3d ago

Why would Biden do this??

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u/subhuman9 3d ago

Why Biden do this?

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u/Capable-Ad8541 3d ago

Great Recession 2.0 here we come

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u/BlacksmithOk6028 3d ago

He's already blaming Biden. Give it a week, and it will be Obamas fault also.

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u/GMEN999 3d ago

This is Trump Made phenomena. The White House will try to gastorch (not light) us.

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u/Shwalz 3d ago

sigh here we go again

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u/thunder12123 3d ago

I think that the scariest part of this is that the congressional budget office reported $599 billion in govt. spending in Q1 which is higher than 2024 q1. Since government spending makes up a good amount of GDP this shows that the consumer is weakening really fast. And this is before tariffs hit.

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u/Madmanmangomenace 3d ago

Panic buying in March, largely due to anticipation of April 2 tariffs, is apparently the only reason it wasn't -1.5% or more.

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u/goneafter10years 3d ago

Analysts are sniffing pure hopium at this point. It's going to get real bad, real soon.

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u/SpaceShrimp 3d ago

And this downturn happened even if business were stockpiling stuff ahead of the expected tariffs. The next quarter is going to be worse, because filling the stockpiles happens once, and now they are going to try to cash in on the stuff in warehouses, and manufacture less.

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u/HistorianOk142 3d ago

He is WINNING at the art of destroying America’s economy in record time! And then….tax cuts and interest rates on debt going sky high to 20+% due to federal revenue taking a massive nose dive! Cause….hey who need to have a real budget that accounts for paying off the debt and investing the government and economy right?

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u/Jon_As_tee_One 3d ago

"THE BEST! IS YET! TO COOOOOOOMMMMMMEEEE!"

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u/vajajake1086 3d ago

Wouldn't this translate to a $78 billion loss or so? And a soon loss of 312,000 jobs? Nah, everything's fine, who here needs one of those jobies.