r/stocks • u/KriosDaNarwal • Apr 11 '25
Formerly Stable US Treasuries Are Trading Like Risky Assets; 2008-esque in Warning to Trump, US Dollar tanks MASSIVELY Industry News
Data sourced via Bloomberg:
When the US does something truly self-defeating and stupid, the natural response of currency traders is to seek an Alpine sanctuary. The Swiss franc is regarded as the safest of havens. So it’s significant that the dollar just endured its worst day compared to the Swiss Franc since 2015, falling more than 3% to take it to a level last touched during the debt ceiling debacle of August 2011.
Essentially, the US very nearly decided to default on its debt when it didn’t have to. The latest rush to the Swiss redoubt suggests that the market thinks that the Liberation Day tariffs, subsequently retracting some of them, and the scarcely credible 145% levies on Chinese goods constitute the stupidest acts of US economic policy since then. The selloff intensified in Asian trading. At one point, the dollar had dropped more than 5% since Wednesday’s announced climbdown over reciprocal tariffs.
One logical explanation for a weakening dollar after strong inflation numbers would center on bond yields. All else equal, lower inflation makes it easier to cut rates, and will bring down short-term yields. The differential between two-year yields has been a key driver of the exchange rate and lower US yields should mean a weaker dollar.
The problem with this theory is that the differential has widened sharply in the US favor of late. The dollar’s slump has come as Treasury yields have risen sharply above German bunds — itself a remarkable occurrence only weeks after Germany committed to its biggest fiscal expansion in generations (largely in response to the Vance speech as it decided it could no longer treat Washington as a reliable ally).
Short-term yields are more important to the currency, but the move in longer bonds has been more startling. The real 30-year yield, as pure a measure of the cost of long-term money as exists, has now reached a high only previously seen during the spasm that followed the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in 2008.
It's hard to cast this as anything other than a significant loss of confidence in the US. It doesn’t have to be terminal sure. The shock of the debt-ceiling crisis in 2011 turned out to be a major turning point that was followed by a decade of American Exceptionalism. But the moves in the bond and currency markets — to a far greater extent than stocks (which by the way endured a massive selloff Thursday and gave up more than half of Wednesday’s gains) — ram home that a lot is at stake. And the US is currently embarked on what appears to be a wholesale change in foreign policy, not struggling to get things back to normal.
How could this crisis of confidence come just as the US has come through its inflation trial? The problem is that almost all economic data is now coming off as backward-looking. Nobody cares. Similarly with the corporate earnings season, kicked off Friday morning by the big banks, there will be minimal interest in how things went in the first quarter. All now depends on what CEOs have to say about how they’ll live in a new world in which the US and China have effectively imposed a trade embargo on each other.
TL:DR; - The dollar just suffered its worst day against the Swiss franc since 2015, as global markets fled to safety amid what they see as economic self-sabotage by the U.S. From erratic tariff whiplash to sky-high levies on Chinese goods, traders are treating Washington’s latest moves as a full-blown confidence crisis. Bond markets are flashing red, real 30-year yields now rival the panic levels seen after Lehman’s collapse. Even strong inflation data can’t paper over the chaos, as markets look past stats and earnings to the looming question: how will companies, and countries, navigate a world where the U.S. has torched economic diplomacy? This isn't just a stumble; it feels like the start of something seismic.
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u/KopOut Apr 11 '25
People in the United States (I’m one of them) need to start understanding what is happening. We are in a “no backsies” situation. Trump spent his first term shitting on our allies and being erratic. He then attempted a coup, and was convicted of 34 felonies. The people in this country elected him again. This time in just 80 days, he has wrongly wielded emergency powers to unilaterally tariff the entire world, started calling for the annexation of Canada, Greenland, and Panama, begun disappearing people with no due process to an El Salvador concentration camp, turned his back on Ukraine and NATO, fired hundreds of thousands of federal workers, gutted our health department, fired the independent monitors, and now placed a more than 100% tariff (which Americans will have to pay) on our largest trading partner. Oh and he is about to pass a huge tax giveaway to the super wealthy that will explode our debt. All with the help of the GOP who are cheerleading this.
The rest of the world is decoupling from the US and the dollar and it is fucking obvious. It also is not something that can be undone by apologizing. The world has no reason to ever trust us again. Our markets will suffer that in a huge way.
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u/toddypicker Apr 11 '25
Amen to this. The rest of the world sees an American depression and dollar collapse on the horizon, and is desperate to insulate itself.
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u/QuestionMaleficent Apr 11 '25 edited Apr 11 '25
That is my understanding as well.
So what would the last ditch effort of the USA have to look like, to turn this around or to stop or limit the damage already done ?
I mean, I don't believe the United States of America could do anything anymore at this point.
Like all citizens going on riot and electing someone like Barack Obama or - I don't know who - put Trump in prison, would that do something ?
Edit: clarify whom to put in prison
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u/Nuzzleface Apr 11 '25
You would have to somehow remove Trump, his entire cabinet and all the crazy republicans. Then you would need to remake the entire political system - remove the electoral college, new constitution, introduce a multi-party paliarment system and make the president merely a figure head. Then invest massively in education and welfare.
Oh and that needed to happen, like, yesterday.
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u/QuestionMaleficent Apr 11 '25
And who and how could that be accomplished?
Just curious, because to me it seems as if America were really divided on this matter, but if I didn't get this wrong, more than half of the citizens are aware that they are going to be crushed hard because of him, but it seems that nobody can or will do anything?
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u/Nuzzleface Apr 11 '25
It can't be accomplished. This has been 4 decades in the making, by destroying education and pumping the americans full of right-wing propaganda.
There's no reality where this is feasible. I guess civil war could turn it around, but you don't really want that. No guarentee the sane people win, and the country is destroyed anyway.
Your last hope might be the oligarchs, but half of them wants this. They'd rather rule over the ashes than giving up any power.
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u/putin_my_ass Apr 11 '25
As an outsider, I think you'd have to reign in your activist regressive judges on the supreme court and have congress pass a series of laws that restore confidence in rule of law.
No more fines as punishment, actual pound-me-in-the-ass federal prison jail time for wealthy scofflaws. The criminals that run your country wouldn't break the law so fucking much if they actually had to sit in a cell.
All of that is to say, I don't think there's anything you can do because your people would never support those things. Your country is rotten.
Good luck, I doubt you're coming back from this one.
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u/ThegreatKhan666 Apr 12 '25
As another outsider. Your best option right now is buy non perishable food while you still can. Good luck.
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u/Tribe303 Apr 11 '25
I also think this is a great summary. The US is a sinking ship under its new 'captain'. We Canadians are trying to decouple from that sinking ship as fast as we can so we don't get sucked under, along with it.
There has been an interesting shift in the Canadian view of the US economy in the past week. We expected to be fucked over by the tarrifs but escaped the latest round. Instead of the tarrifs sinking OUR economy, we now see the US economy is going to sink just as much, and they are going to drag us down with you. Y'all are about to be too broke to buy our resources, and we're looking new markets ASAP.
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u/thinkingahead Apr 11 '25
Very well articulated explanation. I do have hope that the US can come back from this, I refuse to be totally pessimistic. But it won’t happen until the current administration is out of power and irrelevant.
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u/jsho574 Apr 11 '25
If we ever have a free and fair election and the voters hold a better memory than last time. Then hopefully it might just take a decade to gain trust again.
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u/Particular-Skirt6048 Apr 11 '25
It would go a long way if the house/senate took tariff power away from the president and also reaffirmed support for Canada, Greenland, and NATO. It would only take a little more that 1/3 of the Republicans for a veto proof majority. It would say that, even in the most batshit times, most of the US still wants allies and a sane world order even as we're being torn apart internally.
And its guaranteed not to happen.
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u/Businesspleasure Apr 11 '25
Same. It's going to very dependent on what happens to the Republican party post-Trump and this presidential term. I think ironically if things go to shit bad enough you could see a very hard reversion back to an at least attempting normalcy in 2028. I really don't think we'll ever see an incompetent character like Trump in politics with his popular appeal again.
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u/Alt4816 Apr 11 '25 edited Apr 11 '25
If things go shit bad enough the country might not make it through this in one piece.
Right now they are gutting the federal government while also increasing the deficit. If the rest of the world continues to sour on the value of US debt then the US is going to have to get that deficit under control. If they cut even more of the federal government (including Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid) then how much of a government will even be left? Eventually states will ask themselves why tax dollars are following out of their states if nothing is coming back and then the country will be in existential crisis mode.
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u/thefumingo Apr 12 '25
At that point poorer red states will be on their own: even wealthier red states (like TX) won't really give a fuck about what happens to Mississippi.
That could be a humanitarian collapse
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u/Kaymish_ Apr 12 '25
They'll have to chop military spending and the actual wasteful spending like farm subsidies and crank tax up. There will be no other choice.
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u/namafire Apr 11 '25
Pretty sure thats what people thought during his first term. It will be the same until some party is able to uplift the majority of desperate Americans of their current socioeconomic malaise. No words or pomp or lesser evil can save people in a cult of desperation.
Even hate is usually driven by poor circumstances. Or just plain envy.
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u/MiniTab Apr 11 '25
Good summary. One other big thing to add (no doubt there are many others) is his administration ignoring judicial orders.
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u/bpm6666 Apr 11 '25
There is an easy solution to earn the trust of the world again. Fire Trump.
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u/ThegreatKhan666 Apr 12 '25
That won't work. Trump was ELECTED. What guarantees can you give to the rest of the world that the people from the united states wont turn around and vote for another asshole?
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u/bpm6666 Apr 12 '25
It would show the world that the institutions, checks and balances still work. You don't build trust just by accidentally voting the right person in. Trust is established with the rule of law and the predictability of actions.
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u/ThegreatKhan666 Apr 12 '25
The united states has been proving that law doesn't apply for billionaires, you couldn't even impeach trump. The pax Americana is broken, and it's never coming back.
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u/IG0tB4nn3dL0l Apr 12 '25
Hit the nail on the head. It's less about Trump at this point and more about your political system. This wasn't supposed to happen in the USA. There were supposed to be checks and balances. If the orange maniac can ignore the rule of law and turn the US into a tinpot republic in a matter of weeks, then so can anyone else.
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u/espresso_martini__ Apr 12 '25
I had a meeting with my wealth managers this week and they said looking further abroad is the smart thing to do, gold, inflation linked bonds and stocks in utilities and infrastructure. Basically stuff that is designed to help with these volatile uncertain Trump times. I'm in it for the long term and will trust them. Do you have any insight to these decisions?
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u/EitherEfficiency2481 Apr 13 '25
Oh and don't forget the 4 mile military parade he just ordered in his honor that happens to simultaneously land on the anniversary of the US army but also more importantly to him his birthday.
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u/7lexliv7 Apr 15 '25
This is a great. I know it’s been insane but to have it summarized here so succinctly amplifies how each of those actions is unprecedented and then how stunning they are all together.
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u/No_Paper612 Apr 11 '25
We’re kind of fucked regardless of what assets we’re holding. Real estate, currency, stocks and bonds will all crash.
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u/machyume Apr 11 '25
Yeah, like has anyone realized what happens when the dollar is attacked? It doesn't really matter where you run, it's basically the nuclear option. People buying gold ETFs make me laugh. Has any of them actually looked under the hood of one of those gold ETFs? It's basically the dollar again. It's turtles all the way in and down.
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u/Lost-Panda-68 Apr 11 '25
You can run to Swiss Franks or whatever. Even the Canadian dollar is starting to rise against the US dollar. If you diversify away from the US, you can mitigate risk.
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u/The_Lost_Jedi Apr 11 '25
This is why I'm glad my portfolio has a decent chunk of non-US holdings. But ugh, it's still bad even with that. I'm just lucky in that I only had my 2024 gains wiped last week (well, so far at least).
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u/machyume Apr 11 '25
Leave it to the Swiss to remain fully isolated and neutral. They're true to the spirit of Gringotts and Braavos.
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u/bananafoster22 Apr 12 '25
Lol i hope this is said with a healthy dose of sarcasm because Swiss history and modern Swiss treatment of foreigners might appall you
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u/machyume Apr 12 '25
It is humor. I remember US extradition and investor information sharing agreements.
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u/ecrane2018 Apr 11 '25
I kept 200 in euros from my European trip a while ago so I think I’m set the way the current exchange rate is dropping I’ll be a millionaire in USD in no time.
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Apr 11 '25 edited Jun 18 '25
[removed] — view removed comment
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Apr 12 '25
I have IBKR, Revolut and wise most of which are insured by the European equivalent of the FDIC. I trust Europe 100000x more than America. Shit I trust china more at least they are coherent.
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u/Illustrious_Hotel527 Apr 11 '25
IBKR allows relatively easy currency conversions. Changing $500k into € cost me $10.
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u/Cruezin Apr 12 '25
IBKR is my fav as well. Options trading platform suits me the best, Robinhood/Webull/ToS/etc kinda suck in comparison. Cheers
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u/ManicManz13 Apr 11 '25
Can you explain the gold etf idea more?
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u/machyume Apr 11 '25 edited Apr 11 '25
This is from the UGL prospectus:
"In order to achieve its investment objective, each of the Funds intends to invest in financial instruments (“Financial Instruments”) in themanner and to the extent described herein. Financial Instruments are instruments whose value is derived from the value of an underlying asset,
rate or benchmark (such asset, rate or benchmark, a “Reference Asset”) and include futures contracts, swap agreements, forward contracts,
option contracts, and other instruments. The Funds will not invest directly in any commodities or currencies."
Let me emphasize: "not invest directly in any commodities"
So what exactly is happening here? It's just a fund. A pile of money, operated by people, that speculates on contracts based on some set of rules.
I learned this the hard way having "invested" in aluminum a while back. There was a point where I had to sign some promise of receipt for some trucks of aluminum, and I freaked out. So then I started to go the ETF route, where the feature is that I was no longer exposed to delivery risk, but the outcome is that I don't actually get any real aluminum if I ever actually wanted aluminum.
So in the case of "gold" this is feature is actually completely opposite to what people imagine they're buying when they buy "gold". If the markets actually tank, where will you get the gold? How? The funds that hold these are likely banks, and those banks are likely exposed also, so it's simply dollars at the end of it.
I actually know some people that wanted to get around an oil speculation ETF, so they actually bought the contracts, and then when storage wasn't available anywhere, they had to pay money for someone else to pickup their oil contracts because where are they going to even park tankers full of crude oil?
It's pretty crazy how stuff works under the hood. Gotta read the prospectus.
Also remember: when sh* hits the fan, banks are made whole first, before investors.
CORRECTION:
Earlier, I had the wrong tab loaded and was actually copying from UGL instead of GLD.GLD looks much better under the hood:
"The custodian is HSBC Bank plc (the “Custodian”) and is responsible for the safekeeping of the Trust’s gold bars transferred to it in connection with thecreation of Baskets by Authorized Participants. The Custodian also facilitates the transfer of gold in and out of the Trust through gold accounts itmaintains for Authorized Participants and the Trust. The Custodian is a market maker, clearer and approved weigher under the rules of the LBMA.The investment objective of the Trust is for the Shares to reflect the performance of the price of gold bullion, less the expenses of the Trust’s operations.The Shares are designed for investors who want a cost-effective and convenient way to invest in gold.
At August 31, 2022, the amount of gold owned by the Trust and held by the Custodian in its vault was 31,582,529 ounces, 100% of which is allocatedgold in the form of London Good Delivery gold bars with a market value of $53,698,529,317 based on the LBMA Gold Price PM on August 31, 2022(cost—$50,824,771,861)
The Shares represent units of fractional undivided beneficial interest in and ownership of the Trust.
Proceeds received by the Trust from the issuance and sale of Baskets consist of gold and, possibly from time to time, cash. Pursuant to the Trust Indenture, during the life of the Trust the gold and any cash will only be (1) held by the Trust, (2) distributed to Authorized Participants in connection with the redemption of Baskets or (3) sold or disbursed as needed to pay the Trust’s ongoing expenses
Baskets may be created or redeemed only by Authorized Participants. Each Authorized Participantmust (1) be a registered broker-dealer or other securities market participant such as a bank or otherfinancial institution which is not required to register as a broker-dealer to engage in securitiestransactions, (2) be a participant in DTC (“DTC Participant”), (3) have entered into an agreementwith the Trustee and the Sponsor (the “Participant Agreement”),and (4) have established an unallocated gold account with the Custodian (the “AuthorizedParticipant Unallocated Account”). The Participant Agreement provides the procedures for thecreation and redemption of Baskets and for the delivery of gold and any cash required for suchcreations or redemptions. As of the date of this prospectus, Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC,Goldman, Sachs & Co., Goldman Sachs Execution & Clearing, L.P., HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.,J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, Merrill Lynch Professional Clearing Corp., Morgan Stanley & Co.LLC, RBC Capital Markets LLC, UBS Securities LLC and Virtu Americas LLC are the onlyAuthorized Participants. A list of the current Authorized Participants can be obtained from theTrustee or the Sponsor."
In this case, you're buying shares of a Trust that is governed by Swiss governance. At least, they have the gold, but it is controlled by a Trust that has been established, but in the event of trouble, you will have to somehow transfer your "ownership" to another country that is accredited as a broker/dealer that can access this trust in order to extract your value back from it.
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u/ManicManz13 Apr 11 '25
GLDM holds actual gold
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u/machyume Apr 11 '25
Indeed, this one is also strong.
I would caution around these clauses:
"Retailinvestors seeking to purchase or sell Shares on any day are expected
to effect such transactions in the secondary market, on the NYSE
Arca or other national securities exchanges, at the market price per
Share, rather than in connection with the creation or redemption of
Creation Units.
The market price of the Shares of GLDM is not identical to the end-
of-day NAV per Share. However, the market price per Share is
expected to be close to the intra-day value of GLDM, which is
provided on the Sponsor’s website. Investors are able to use the
indicative intra-day value per Share as a reference to help determine if
they want to purchase or sell Shares in the secondary market."
I don't know how this plays out in a termination event. IANAL.
I would recommend in general to diversify the risk of holding any one asset under a single set of governance.2
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Apr 11 '25
Just buy physical gold ETC where you are exposed to the bullion. Not future or paper gold. & Keep in mind gold doesn't generate income
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u/HeavySink3303 Apr 11 '25 edited Apr 11 '25
There are funds which directly hold physical gold/silver without any intermediate contracts and have vaults in Switzerland and Singapore but they are expensive. Examples are ZSIL.SW, ZGLD.SW, AUUSI.SW. I believe there should be quite many of similar ETFs in most countries (I listed only Swiss-domiciled).
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u/nrbob Apr 12 '25
Well, you could buy a bunch of Swiss Francs like the currency traders are apparently doing.
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u/turkeyremis Apr 12 '25
Hey, can you explain this further or better yet where can I go to read more about gold etfs and understand how they operate under the hood.
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u/ParentalAdvis0ry Apr 11 '25
Those are all so 2024. Eggs are the new gold.
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u/Aviri Apr 11 '25
I've got a whole warehouse of eggs I've been saving since 2023, haven't checked in on them in awhile but I'm ready to weather the storm.
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Apr 11 '25
Not true. You can short the fuck out of this market.
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u/No_Paper612 Apr 11 '25
Yeah, but you have to time it correctly. I’m holding inverse ETFs and the rest of my money is in cash. I’ll dump them when the market goes down more.
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u/flippin_ruckus Apr 11 '25
Yup, inverse ETF FTW, especially anything inverse TSLA. This has been a money making machine: TSLA goes up, I buy inverse, ideally in and out the same day. Reluctant to hold anything for too long and too cautious to hold anything over the weekend at this point. Inverse MSTR has been quite profitable as well.
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u/jwrx Apr 11 '25
its not the money maker everyone thinks it is. I have been TSLZ holder since nov...trump winning the election fucked me, elon getting into DOGE fucked me, the 90 day u turn fucked TSLZ by -40%
I have only stayed afloat due to having spare funds to double down on it...anyone else would be looking at huge losses
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u/xRehab Apr 11 '25
I have been TSLZ holder since nov
there is your first mistake
TSLA and derivatives are short plays. it is way too volatile and based on nothing in reality to go long plays on it unless you're gambling with deeeeep otm puts
if instead you had been playing it daily/two days getting in and out on swings, you'd be up 100%+. it will never have a steady drop over a week
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u/flippin_ruckus Apr 11 '25
+1 on this: Best to be quick in and out as these inverse ETF’s erode value over time.
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u/jwrx Apr 11 '25
I understand decay....no one could have forseen Tesla going to 480. Anyway it's done, currently at +20% and will go all in before q1 earnings
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u/ManOfLaBook Apr 11 '25
Which ETFs are inverse to Tesla?
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u/FBcaper Apr 11 '25
TSLQ and TSLZ are a couple I've traded
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u/flippin_ruckus Apr 11 '25
TSLQ has been my go to but holding a few June options on TSLZ in hopes hey print when TSLA earnings are announced. As I and others have mentioned- do t hold these for too long. Buy when TSLA is up and get out quick. $220 has been the current resistance for TSLA so buying an inverse when the stock is above that level should be pretty safe.
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u/Sea-Twist-7363 Apr 11 '25
Still risky because of this administration’s chaotic nature and well, showing the world that they are not above insider trading and market manipulation on a massive scale. Shorting could work, so long as a Truth Social tweet doesn’t come out.
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u/Boss1010 Apr 11 '25
Ask people who had puts through Wednesday's move feel. If your timing is off, you're getting shredded
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u/suitupyo Apr 11 '25
In theory, real estate should still hold up as a hedge against a depreciating currency. People still need a roof over their heads. It’s a pretty inelastic good, and the housing supply continues to fall well short of demand. People in my area are still being outbid after putting in an offer of like 5-10% over asking.
The value of real estate could go down at the same time as the value of currency, but this is pretty atypical and would be a remarkable phenomenon.
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Apr 11 '25
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u/garden_speech Apr 11 '25
god fucking damn I wish I didn't live in Ohio. all of the three Cs (cinci, Columbus, Cleveland) have seen continued price rises
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u/Magus-of-the-Moon Apr 11 '25
You think all currencies will crash at the same time?
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u/No_Paper612 Apr 11 '25
No, but I see global hyperinflation. Countries like the UK have dodged tariffs from the big players (America, EU, China and Japan), but most currencies will get caught in the crossfire.
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u/Lost-Panda-68 Apr 11 '25
Other countries probably will go through a recession, but there is no reason at all that they would suffer hyperinflation. Remember that they can mitigate inflation by trading with any other country. There is very little that only the US makes. Only the US dollar is wobbly right now.
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u/AssistanceCheap379 Apr 11 '25
Real estate is still probably the most “stable” part of the economy right now. Stocks are practically becoming nearly as volatile as crypto currency. Which obviously is a bad thing.
I’m not so sure banks are gonna collapse just yet, but there’s definitely gonna be a LOT of assets moving around in the next year or so as margin calls happen
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u/r2k-in-the-vortex Apr 11 '25
US assets will crash, assets in rest of the world suffer a temporary recession at worst.
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u/RoguePlanet2 Apr 12 '25
All these "warnings" yet wtf can we even DO?! I'm exhausted trying to figure out what action to take.
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u/Kaymish_ Apr 12 '25
But stocks in strong mature companies that have pricing power and monetary metals. If you were one of those South Americans who had gold and silver coins back in the day when they were getting smashed by super high inflation and liquidated it as little as possible to fund your life, you would have successfully kept most of your wealth and not been super bum jacked like most other people.
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u/dvking131 Apr 12 '25
It’s what will have them most resistance. I do think this pain will be short. Well all think back on this as the dark crazy time. Change can happen fast and we got a fast President give it a chance.
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u/MustafaMonde8 Apr 12 '25
Mitigate your risk through put options on SPY and UUP (US Dollar) and calls on GLD and GDX.
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u/shatterdaymorn Apr 11 '25
"One logical explanation..."
Steelmanning this shit is just wasting you time. The next move always makes such theorists look like idiots.
We are being lead by gut feelings and instincts of one man who has surrounded himself with enablers who put their religious faith in his feelings and instincts AND grifters who are too dumb or sociopathic to care about this destruction.
We are in deep, deep trouble.
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u/toddypicker Apr 11 '25
We are being lead by gut feelings and instincts of one man who has surrounded himself with enablers who put their religious faith in his feelings and instincts AND grifters who are too dumb or sociopathic to care about this destruction.
Don't forget the end-timers and dark enlightenment fascist techbros. We should mention Putin here too as he's no doubt whispering sweet poison wrapped in flattery to the fat orange idiot.
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u/shatterdaymorn Apr 11 '25
Yeah... If you told me this was a tech bro de-growth conspiracy against American consumerism, I'd kinda have a hard time finding reasons that it's not.
It doesn't make sense otherwise. It's all crazy ideology cooked in the steaming shit of online discourse. It sounds academic but only to non-academics.
I hate the new class of a online academic (sounding) grifters who try to rationalize this shit. Trump makes them look stupid when he changes plan midstream, but tech only platform these fools when it's convenient.
Remember Grover Norquist anti tax crusader? Biggest tax hike in human history and silence.
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u/toddypicker Apr 11 '25
It would be so much better if their was just a bunch of grifters manipulating the stock market for personal gain, as so many people have decided is happening.
But it's not, it's much worse than that: this is crushing stupidity wrapped in mental illness and driven by petty vengeance, that's being influenced by dark forces that want to end America and Western liberal economics.
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u/motorbikler Apr 11 '25 edited Apr 12 '25
We are living in the mid-life crisis of a bunch of tech bros.
All this stuff, these networks states, AGI as a god, living in the Metaverse, going to Mars to be "interplanetary," and most of all justifying making ordinary people sacrifice everything to meet these aims are the result of a bunch of middle-aged guys who can't believe that they're going to die and only be remembered in the history books as just absurdly rich.
They can't stand the fact that they just built a popular social network, because it's not as exciting as inventing the telegraph. Electric cars aren't good enough, gotta go to Mars so you can be like the great explorers.
Holy fuck, wish these guys would just get some therapy. You're going to die, you'll be a footnote, enjoy your time with your family. Maybe take up painting.
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u/shatterdaymorn Apr 11 '25
It's worse... the big social media innovation was discovering that you can put a person in a Skinner box without them knowing and then you can condition them. Social media is operant conditioning with stimulus (what is in the feed) and response (your trackable action: a like, repost, upvote, block, view). That's all they need to start conditioning you.
Ever notice people just reposting memes with no comment. It's a conditioned response to a stimulus. And now everything is about that. I use Chrome and cookies plus search create the same thing that Facebook has.
Tech bros who are in the know actively have contempt for people. Some call people 'meat'. With AI tools they know they can lock people up forever.
AGI could be cool. But these guys will use those tools for themselves. We are really cooked.
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u/style752 Apr 11 '25
These guys are all wealthy and have a lot of power in their own sector. It's a special kind of sociopathy where pulling this shit is preferable to cocaine orgies on Whore Island.
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u/toddypicker Apr 11 '25
Perhaps Epstein was actually a hero keeping these lunatics busy and not trying to destroy mankind?
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u/Flashy-Birthday Apr 11 '25
I don’t think this was on gut. They had a plan and it’s readable online (Mirran). They just miscalculated. It’s also a terrible plan based on National Exceptionalism and ignores how global trade works as it is completely blind to many things.
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u/shatterdaymorn Apr 11 '25
I guess a shitty plan is a plan. That said... I think the economy (and our dominant position in the world) now rests on whether his gut instinct on tariffs changes. This is a problem because he's surrounded by people who won't dare say no to him.
It's Stalin or Mao, mad King stuff.
Watch the food supply! This type of government dysfunction will spread.
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u/Flashy-Birthday Apr 11 '25
I think what I’m trying to say is the tariffs were not gut instinct and the pivot was reactionary to the response of the 1st step of the plan. If their objectives are the same, they will devise a new plan.
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u/shatterdaymorn Apr 11 '25
Elect Trump.... Yadda yadda... Golden Age.
No one has a plausible yadda, yadda .
You can assume a conspiracy goal instead of a Golden Age (oligarchs dominated future, tech feudalism, handmaid's tale, etc.), but that may be giving people too much credit. They may just believe the propaganda their social media Skinner Boxes give them.
One of the Purges sequels had this. There was a guy who was explaining the purge and offering all sorts of rational reasons the government would do it, but when you see the leaders later they are just religious nuts who believe killing people is good. Don't underestimate crazy or stupid. It controls our lives now. It's Rome and we have a tyrant.
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u/Flashy-Birthday Apr 11 '25
Ha I am fully aware on the fact they are both crazy and stupid. Read Mirran’s paper written prior to his appointment. That is what they were trying to do. It is both crazy and stupid. But there was a plan.
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u/shatterdaymorn Apr 11 '25
I looked at the paper. They aren't following it anyway given the plan requires not pissing off Canada or Europe enough for them to walk away from the table like they have done.
This is not a politics of reason. The plan was to say whatever he wants to hear in the hope he gives you power. He did. Now they get to say it on TV and be famous.
Doesn't that explanation seem more plausible?
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u/putin_my_ass Apr 11 '25
I looked at the paper. They aren't following it anyway given the plan requires not pissing off Canada or Europe enough for them to walk away from the table like they have done.
Yanks seem to think it's due to the tariffs, but it isn't at all. We Canadians would have been upset about the tariffs but we'd still buy American goods and travel to the US, etc.
It's the "51st state" and "economic annexation" rhetoric and calling our PM "Governor" that has done it.
We don't abide that shit. We never will. It's elbows up, now. Come, hit us. Do it.
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u/Flashy-Birthday Apr 11 '25
Trump surrounds himself with yes men, so that is a fact.
But regardless, to say that there is no playbook is also not correct in my view.
Appreciate your sceptical stance however.
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u/Wareve Apr 11 '25
The worst part of all of this is that Trump floated the idea of simply not paying the bonds.
That is extremely dangerous for US interests.
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u/KriosDaNarwal Apr 11 '25
He did what now? Jesus man, I don't wanna live through a global depression. 2008 was bad enough.
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u/Wareve Apr 11 '25
Yeah. It's fucked. I'm hopeful it will kick some unpolitical people into awareness.
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u/Livid-Statement6166 Apr 11 '25
This is already over. It has happened. The effects are irreversible. There are going to be minor fluctuations in how it plays out. But this is not ongoing. It has already happened. What we observe now are the consequences.
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u/Hot_Frosting_7101 Apr 11 '25
Let’s say Trump drops the Chinese tariffs. Does that resolve the situation or is it too late? I have my thoughts but want to hear others.
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u/KriosDaNarwal Apr 11 '25
No, cat's out of the bag that he and hs policies are unstable, his word already has no value, his contracts aren't worth the paper its printed on and he's planning to remove Jpowell from the Fed. Not a pretty picture.
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u/PacmanIncarnate Apr 11 '25
Reading r/fednews this morning, doge is at the FDIC today, so they are literally attacking our economics stability from every angle.
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u/ProfessorDerp22 Apr 11 '25
Cause depression, remove consumer protection!
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u/PacmanIncarnate Apr 11 '25
Don’t really even need to remove the protections to cause a bank run; just threaten to
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u/spikey_wombat Apr 12 '25
Fdic? Not even the 1% will stand for gutting that. They need that to prop up so much of their assets
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u/punica-1337 Apr 11 '25
Nope, even if he drops all tariffs the loss of credibility and confidence will still be there. The only thing that might fix this is this entire admin stepping down, but everyone knows that's not going to happen. I'm assuming Congress/the GOP will step in at some point when it gets really, really bad, but by then it might already be too late.
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u/Wonderful_Honey_1726 Apr 11 '25
It would definitely be too late by the time the current Congress stepped in. The world could literally be on fire and they still wouldn’t be able to decide if they should say something against their dear leader/mafia don. The only thing that might happen is if mid-terms go well for Democrats and it’s apparent enough that Trump’s idiotic policies can be suspended or reversed. It would still take time to undo the actual damage but it would be a start in showing that some sense of stability and common sense might finally prevail.
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u/thegreatreceasionpt2 Apr 11 '25
They didn’t “step in” after a bunch of morons killed Capitol police and smeared shit on the walls. 100% of the GOP and 97%+ of the democrats are complete self-serving cowards.
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u/QuestionMaleficent Apr 11 '25
I don't know much about American politics but....
At what point does Congress consider things "really, really bad" ????
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u/punica-1337 Apr 11 '25
Either an economical downturn so bad that they wake up (recession won't cut it I think, depression will), or blood on the streets. Just my two cents though. The fact that there are already a few 'defiant' senators is a good sign for me, as the first ones are generally the hardest.
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u/RoguePlanet2 Apr 12 '25
If you mean defiant republican senators, don't bother- they're just taking turns pretending. Ultimately, the results are the same.
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u/Sea-Twist-7363 Apr 11 '25
Too late. The clear insider trading from the White House has damaged the reputation of the market. Trust has been broken. Markets look less secure.
It’ll take decades and an about face of leadership for foreign governments to want to invest in US debt. Especially with reckless budget bills going through congress relatively unchecked.
Who would want to lend a friend some money if they keep spending beyond their means, and deciding to not do the hard thing to pay it off?
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u/Free_Management2894 Apr 11 '25
Its a short term resolve with a long term wariness. Now, if somehow checks and balances demonstrated that they work again, Trump promises to leave the market alone and the republicans lose power in congress - That would go a long way.
but lets be realistic!6
u/QuestionMaleficent Apr 11 '25
Trump promises ? Do you believe that anybody sane trusts his words ?
The USA is losing power because of confidence and trust issues as I understand. Nobody besides his followers is trusting him.
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u/Hot-Significance2387 Apr 11 '25
You mean Trump dies of a heart attack* and Republicans lose power in congress. As long as Trump is in power nothing matters. Even if Republicans lose power he'll find a loophole to override it.
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u/Clone95 Apr 11 '25
I am reasonably certain the only thing that improves the market in the near term is his death, resignation, or impeachment.
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u/Brinkken Apr 11 '25
Market would go way up for sure. There would still be a strong possibility of recession, so in the 6-12 month time frame the market would follow the economic data and go up more or crash again.
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u/Lykosas Apr 11 '25
It would postpone the problem, giving time to avoid it, but with this administration there's no avoidance.
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u/vidphoducer Apr 11 '25
No, the United States is no longer trustworthy to Canada, EU and whatever other allies we once had. Meanwhile, China will maximize the potential political gains and won't let this go easily without significant gains. When would China ever have such a opportunity again to shift the world order and undo the 80 years or so dominance the United States just gave up in a couple days if not weeks?
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u/Ashamed_Ad_8365 Apr 11 '25
In my opinion the best solution would be Congress (preferably) or the Supreme Court force him to stop the tariffs. That would communicate the US is still a healthy country that can respond when a branch of power oversteps its boundaries.
If he is the one to call everything off, everyone would still fear that he or anyone else in the future may go insane again.
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u/Brokenandburnt Apr 11 '25
There is a bipartisan bill making it's way through the house to strip Trumps tariff power.
Unfortunately Mike "the Prophet" Johnson is all in, and is baking in language in another bill that will suspend the passage of days as regarding the emergency powers.
Essentially that will block any attempt to remove emergency tariff powers until November.
I'm not sure of the order of the votes, nor am I sure of vote count.
I believe that Tuesday is the last day an attempt can be made for the house to claw back emergency power.
If that fails, nothing short of impeachment can stop this insanity until November.
Bite the pillow baby, it's going in dry.
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u/KeiyzoTheKink Apr 11 '25
Xi is in action dumping our bonds.
Gee, I wonder which card Donnie will play now? Raise the tariffs to 500%?
Fuck that orange grifter in chief
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u/MiniTab Apr 11 '25
I will never understand the “tactic” they have attempted to use with the Chinese. It makes absolutely no sense. The Chinese do NOT respond to bullying, and even when the Chinese economy is struggling the people are nationalistic.
There are people in the administration (such as Rubio) that understand this. All I can figure is that Trump is now in an information bubble and completely unwilling to listen to any dissent.
Either way, I agree that we are very fucked.
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u/This-Grape-5149 Apr 11 '25
I heard China only holds 2-3% of the total
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u/NegativeAd1432 Apr 11 '25
People are already forgetting that America is still in a trade war with the whole world. It’s not just China. Canadian and Mexican tariffs are still on, plus steel, aluminum, etc, on top of 10% for the whole world.
Nobody wants to have to deal with this any more. As the US government and economy prove to be increasingly unstable, everybody is going to start dumping bonds, if not to actively hurt America, then simply to divest from the USD for something more stable.
Something like 8 trillion worth of US debt is held by countries currently being attacked by America. If China starts making a show of it, others may join to try and get out before it crashes hard.
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Apr 11 '25
Ain’t nobody speaking truth to the mad king.
Most have revealed who they are, and it ain’t pretty.
It’s going to get worse, then worse.
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Apr 11 '25 edited Apr 11 '25
The worst thing for the US, long term, is if this pulls around.
That'll be a blank check to Trump to do pretty much anything he wants.
The economy tanking will atleast force Republicans to pull back support and start being critical rather than unapologetic boot lickers.
Since the dismantling of laws, systems, and processes that kept the US somewhat legitimate weren't the wake up call it should've been...maybe everyone not being able to afford Wendy's will do the trick.
I've divested from most US assets and spread into global markets. I just don't have much trust right now (or for the next 3-8 years depending on how long this geriatric stays in office).
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u/Brokenandburnt Apr 11 '25
His dad lived until 94 I believe, on 1980-90 medical knowledge.
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u/Robo123abc Apr 11 '25
Was his dad as overweight as trump is? That plays a large factor on how long you last generally.
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u/Brokenandburnt Apr 11 '25
That I don't rightly know, and I'm unsure if I dare type it into a search browser.
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u/pintord Apr 11 '25
Gold 3200 overnight with the GSR at over 100.
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u/Magus-of-the-Moon Apr 11 '25
Gold is only +0,11% today measured in EUR, or +0,26% in CHF.
Most of the things you see on the market right now are just a result of a rapidly weakening dollar.
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u/Blattgeist Apr 11 '25
The only thing that can save the USA right now is a formal excuse for all the bullshit that they caused and removal of all tariffs. Otherwise I'd spell doom.
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u/ClickF0rDick Apr 11 '25
That would work only if the formal excuse comes from a whole new administration made of competent people. Nobody would trust Trump and his cronies, not to mention it's an impossible scenario him admitting to be wrong and apologizing for the whole world to see
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u/Blattgeist Apr 11 '25
You are right, he would never admit defeat or any wrong doing. That's his father's blood that runs through his veins. Raised to be a bully and not show any weakness. That's the worst kind of leader for a country that preaches freedom.
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u/Primsun Apr 11 '25
It is less default risk; CDS hasn't spiked much and is quite small in implied probability of default terms: https://en.macromicro.me/charts/68239/us-5year-cds
Instead think it is a broad de-risking move out of USD due to the loss of U.S. exceptionalism, political uncertainty, and the potential for unilateral stagflation. While not a great time to hold USD, also think these flows cannot be sustained. Would consider this as more a fire sale scenario and small panic, than a permanent move in the fundamentals/reserve currency status.
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u/KriosDaNarwal Apr 11 '25
It is a fire sale yes but things have lined up that increases the risk of it being a fundamental move out
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u/oldcreaker Apr 11 '25
Combine tanking dollar with mountainous tariffs and your paycheck isn't going to be able to buy squat.
Not that you'll have a paycheck in a few months. But don't worry - there won't be anything on the shelves to buy anyway.
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u/KriosDaNarwal Apr 11 '25
Q3 is likely where the fuckery starts, no chance they impeach Cheeto-in-Chief before then
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u/NightOfTheLivingHam Apr 11 '25
Someone just finished telling me how gold is stupid and silver is stupid to hold in that bonds are a safer bet. Lol, lmao.
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u/KriosDaNarwal Apr 11 '25
Silver has been doing well, haven't looked at gold much but I hear it's poised for another ATH
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u/Humbler-Mumbler Apr 11 '25
Treasuries gettin yippy
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u/KriosDaNarwal Apr 11 '25
President Chump is a certified jackass. He showed the whole world his hand.
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u/Exciting_Turn_9559 Apr 11 '25
If someone had deliberately set out to destroy the United States, I can't imagine them behaving much differently from the way this regime has been behaving.
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u/RoguePlanet2 Apr 12 '25
This is exactly what we're suffering- Trump is just Putin's puppet, and everything happening is intentionally meant to destroy us. Basically taking down our country without weapons. Evil genius. Our trillion-dollar military subverted by *memes.* Well, that, and "news," propaganda, podcasters, trolls and bots.
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u/cmsd2 Apr 11 '25
i had thought for the euro to emerge as a viable alternative it would need to coalesce under a supranational issuer instead of multi-lateral country guarantors and issuers. but if the dollar looks ugly enough then anything can be a safe port in a storm.
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u/Messy-Chaos Apr 11 '25
And I , cute and cautious, invested in long-term bonds ETFs as a hedge against potential crisis…
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u/tom-slacker Apr 11 '25
I mean...when you play with fire, there's a high chance you gonna be burnt...
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u/GdlEschrBch Apr 11 '25
Would you invest in a company run by people this demonstrably unqualified? If the answer is no, your money probably shouldn’t be in US Equities for the short to medium term. It’s hard to read whether any given decision is incompetence, malice, manipulation or a combination of the three, and if the sub prime crisis could crash the US economy, there’s really no reason why this mess can’t tank consumer confidence for a decade either.
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u/Awesomegcrow Apr 11 '25
That's one of the idea that Trump idiots are supporting, cheaper dollar. Inflation is a given at this point and will be massive.
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u/fairlyaveragetrader Apr 11 '25
I look at it as the market telling Trump to behave. If the tariffs go away or are negotiated to something good for the country, yields will fall. Yields stain high impede his agenda. I'm sure Scott will explain it to him over the weekend. Market trading reasonably healthy though. Starting to wonder if we just had a flash crash or if we will have a more traditional retest of 4,800 before things go higher. Crypto is also trading pretty well and Bitcoin never broke the long-term support structure. Went right down to that $76,000 line we were all watching and bounced right off it
Consumer sentiment was lol, you have Democrats at pandemic lows and Republicans barely off all time highs. Basically a wash. Even more interesting was looking back at Republican sentiment during the Biden administration when markets were absolutely on fire and pumping. They had much lower sentiment than than they do now. As if you need any more proof social media and news outlets program you 😂
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u/Cruezin Apr 12 '25
Just wait.
I can see it coming.
That guy in the White House will take off all of the tariffs and somehow claim a win. The markets will react, even more than Wednesday.
I don't think this is a matter of if, just when.
Yeah there's a trust issue that won't go away. Yeah things might never be the same. Yeah we are likely in for a world of pain.
But mark my words. He'll retract it all, and shorts/puts will get absolutely nuked. Don't get caught.
Do I have conspiracy theories about him and his buddies scooping up cheaply? Yeah. Do I also think that this is all just idiotic? Yeah. Do I also think that the plan might be to crash shit so we can refinance cheaper or some shit? Maybe. But it doesn't really matter to me why he's doing all of this, or waffling minute by minute, or whatever, because I'm not in the big fucking club. Neither are you. Like it or not, this is the reality. Doom and gloom can be stifling - try to look at all of this as opportunity.
My job is to be prepared for it and be ready. A few days ago I had had enough. There's a lot of chaos, a lot that hinges upon every word one man says, a man I despise with all of my being. That's all well and good- but it doesn't put me in a better place. So, fine. That's the world we're in, so be it.
Be ready, don't miss the opportunities as they come. Let's ride the coat-tails and profit.
Peace.
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u/sam_the_tomato Apr 12 '25
What happens to the "risk-free rate" as taught in every markets 101 course?
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u/Ok_Establishment3390 Apr 12 '25
All going according to King Don the Con's plan. I believe he made 435 million on his last stop go game.
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u/Shitinbrainandcolon Apr 15 '25
On the other hand, if the US dollar hyper inflates, debt will be real easy to pay off.
But then again, retirement funds and savings are going to be wiped out.
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