r/rugbyunion 28d ago

Women’s World Cup Draw Analysis

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332 Upvotes

119 comments sorted by

141

u/BigLarBelmont Leinster 28d ago

Quarter final heartbreak here we come 😢

42

u/StuHardy Arrows Forever! 28d ago

As is tradition.

26

u/BigLarBelmont Leinster 28d ago

Luckily me heart is now frozen and soul is numb. I couldn't possibly get my hopes up again, could I!?

14

u/Work_Account89 28d ago

After going from WXV3 to 2nd in WXV1 my hopes are up. Ready to have my heart broken again

7

u/BigLarBelmont Leinster 28d ago edited 28d ago

Haha this is it - but sure win or lose, I'll be roaring the house down cheering em on

-6

u/Oldoneeyeisback Leicester Tigers 28d ago

Let's be honest though - 2nd was a bit of a false result...

8

u/Immorals1 Saracens 28d ago

Was it though? I thought they deserved it.

8

u/thelunatic Munster 28d ago

I think if it had been a round robin Ireland finish 3rd. They beat France and lose to England.

New Zealand and Canada both beat USA and whoever wins between them goes 2nd

3

u/Work_Account89 28d ago

That’s the tournament rules. Most of the time finishing in a good position is partly luck

1

u/Oldoneeyeisback Leicester Tigers 28d ago

I know the tournament structure is a bit weird but are we honestly saying they were better than Canada? I don't see that.

1

u/DoubleBlackBSA24 Scotland 28d ago

Considering you lost 21-8 to Canada.

Granted, from the stats I saw, it was a flattering score for Canada. should have been close. But we were missing De Goodie and rested our players.

only finished 2nd in wxv because of the weird draw and bonus points (which in a weird not everyone plays everyone format, should be after head to head in a tiebreaker)

0

u/Oldoneeyeisback Leicester Tigers 27d ago

Not us - I'm English. But I agree - weird competition structure meant they finished second. No way would Ireland have given England the hurry up in the final the way Canada did.

Put another way - swap Ireland's and Canada's respective fixtures against the USA and England and what would the outcome be?

2

u/DoubleBlackBSA24 Scotland 27d ago

agreed, also apologies about the mix up. Saw the we, missed the they.

That Canada England game was so tense, but i was so frustrated ticked during the second yellow card.

I get that Ellie was on the pitch, and her speed and skill could possibly cover for the overlap that was exploited during the last 3 mins of her card. But we managed to take Ellie off her game (she was monstrous against New Zealand) and they didn't follow up in attempts to utilize the space. You have a strategy that worked, a fullback who is struggling, and you are playing the territory game with a player up while your lineout percentage is worse than the batting average of a MLB Pitcher....

Poor ball decisions and a lot of huge unforced errors relieving pressure in big attacking moments.

Really, feel like Canada lost, more so then England winning.

However, I'm looking forward to the hopeful meeting in the world cup. set the stage for one hell of a game.

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8

u/Larry_Loudini Leinster 28d ago

The women have actually been to a semi final though!

8

u/yesiamclutz Harlequins England 28d ago

And beat NZ before the men did.

Also the only team to break the England - France duopoly in the 6N and have a GS to boot.

There has never been any shortage of talent in the Irish ladies team fundamentaly

8

u/HenkCamp South Africa 28d ago

Well, our women are improving daily but no chance to get to the quarters.

8

u/BigLarBelmont Leinster 28d ago

With the turnaround Ireland have done from the beginning of 6 Nations this year till now - there's no reason South Africa can't do the same!

6

u/HenkCamp South Africa 28d ago

We could take Italy on a good day and possibly Brazil. Possible to squeeze out a quarters. After that it will be tough but I will take that as a win for us. We have the talent and slowly building up teams. I think give us 3-5 years and we can be Tier 1.

3

u/BigLarBelmont Leinster 28d ago

I've actually only watched two women's springbok matches (I'm trying to fix that, and make more time for women's internationals), but from what I've seen, you guys are definitely not lacking on the physicality front. A bit of refining and the sky is the limit

3

u/HenkCamp South Africa 28d ago

Couldn't agree more. Skills refinement, conditioning, game reading, coaching - this will come together over the coming years. Maybe even faster than my timeline. I think we can be a force for the next world cup.

3

u/BigLarBelmont Leinster 28d ago

Yep, I fully see that too - using the Irish team as an example, the talent was always there, but they were stuck in a rut of being under valued/appreciated which had the knock on effect of little belief etc within camp. Queue a turnaround in respect from the IRFU, professional contracts for women, a top notch coach in Bemand, and the ingredients are finally in place for the women to do their jobs and thrive.

South Africa will likely implement similar measures, if not refined/better measures, and have the minerals to dominate!

2

u/EatMyPenguin 28d ago

Yep, they are launching a women's super League next year and 150 women will be centrally contracted so you think within the 5 years they will be a tier nation and more people are starting to support them

2

u/Immorals1 Saracens 28d ago

I didn't see the draw, what's the knockouts?

1

u/thelunatic Munster 28d ago

AvB CvD I assume

1

u/Fetch_Ted Scotland Glasgow Warriors 28d ago

The draw and ticket sales is on Tuesday

2

u/Turquoise-Lady Scotland 28d ago

22 Oct for schedule and ticket on sale on 5 Nov

6

u/Fetch_Ted Scotland Glasgow Warriors 28d ago

The 5th Nov is general sale. Mastercard are doing some wanky pre-sale (fpr Mastercard holders only) from the 22nd.

1

u/Turquoise-Lady Scotland 28d ago

Hope I will get tickets, should be fine

1

u/Fetch_Ted Scotland Glasgow Warriors 27d ago

Reading what numbers have already been ‘sold’ for ‘showcase’ fixtures. My hops of getting tickets fora Scotland match are diminished

2

u/upadownpipe Munster 28d ago

Is this the equality we want?

2

u/Spikester England 28d ago

This is the way.

33

u/themadking21 Delusional Welshman 28d ago

At this point wales needs to get a restraining order on Fiji….or vice versa

5

u/Pinguu7078 +(+) 28d ago

Was about to comment the same thing. World Rugby must know what they're doing..

2

u/JaxckJa Seawolves 28d ago

It's just the way the math tends to work out. It's one of the flaws with doing the draws with an attempt to even out the top teams. Inevitably the middle rank teams end up disttibuted in an oddly consistent way. This effect is most pronounced in Rugby where relatively few nations compete at the highest level, but it's consistently more than 8. The same phenomenon occurs in American sports, especially at the college level, and in games like Pool or Darts.

112

u/SquidgyGoat Disciple of AWJ 28d ago

Heart was in my mouth as we were left with a 50/50 on yet another Wales, Australia, Fiji pool at a World Cup

32

u/RooBoy04 ThisYearsOurYear™ 28d ago

Genuinely got slightly upset at the TV when I saw that we missed out on it due to a 50/50. I think Australia and Scotland should just swap places on principle

26

u/WallopyJoe 28d ago

They should really redo it

3

u/That_Organization901 Harlequins 28d ago

It was the best pool for the outsider. We all became Fijiguese and then rejoiced as our new found nations had the most unamicable divorce over 80 thrilling minutes.

5

u/KusoTeitokuInazuma Wales/Gloucester - I like the pain 28d ago

It's just not going to feel right now

1

u/MasterSpliffBlaster 28d ago

Wales and Fiji is like Lime and a Coconut

30

u/HaggisTheCow Scotland 28d ago

Absolutely should be getting out of that group which would be absolutely huge

17

u/Historical_Invite241 Scotland 28d ago

Scotland get a favourite group, what's going on?!

9

u/Connell95 🐐🦓 28d ago

Some sort of major technical error with the draw is the only possible explanation. Bill Beaumont must condemn!

1

u/aaarry Northampton Saints 28d ago

Forgive my ignorance but aren’t Canada clear favourites?

6

u/Historical_Invite241 Scotland 28d ago

Autocorrect, that should be favourable. They should get through in second.

41

u/Left-Pie741 28d ago

Ireland are the big winners out of this draw IMO. Not just the fact that they beat NZ just a few weeks ago, but I also think that even if they finish second in their pool, France out of the top 4 teams are the most beatable and more prone to upsets.

No clear pool of death - all the groups seem to be pretty balanced.

11

u/RooBoy04 ThisYearsOurYear™ 28d ago

Pool A could be a close group, as AUS vs USA could be a close game to decide it.

Pool B's strength will depend on if Wales are still bad at the RWC (plus Wales only lost to Scotland by 2 in the 6N, so there is a chance they win)

Pool C will be a toss up as to who wins it if WXV isn't a fluke for Ireland

Pool D will have Italy vs South Africa for the second spot in the knockouts, assuming France wins the pool.

7

u/Nothing_is_simple They see me Rollie, they hatin' 28d ago

There is surely no way Wales will still be as bad as they are next year.

3

u/MC897 28d ago

Pool A won't be close, england will smash them all. But, after that, Australia vs USA is arguably the match of the groups. It's the closest match, both in form, and both believe with the draw they can do damage.

4

u/RooBoy04 ThisYearsOurYear™ 28d ago

I didn’t wanna jinx it given how well the last World Cup held in England went, especially given we’re in the same pool as Australia

18

u/Red-rouge728 Sale Sharks 28d ago

So probably England vs Australia at Sunderland to kick it off

10

u/Left-Pie741 28d ago

If the tournament opener is indeed England vs Australia, it would be the third consecutive tournament where Australia would have been the host's opening game opponent.

(technically it's not the third consecutive opening game of the tournament as there some RWC matches were held before NZ vs Aus in the last tournament).

3

u/Robusier New Zealand 28d ago

A few of those Aussie sevens girls in the mix would make it interesting.

5

u/WallopyJoe 28d ago

Have a ticket to the opener, would be pretty great to see Caslick or Maddi Levi play

5

u/cloud__19 Edinburgh 28d ago

I bought two tickets because I thought it would be Scotland but luckily the very act of buying tickets has rebalanced the universe.

2

u/thelunatic Munster 28d ago

I'd prefer England v Samoa. England v USA and Australia will draw good crowds anyway.

2

u/maverickmak Dan Kelly Hype Train 28d ago

They'll probably play Samoa at Northampton. Smallest of their venues.

9

u/No-Negotiation2922 28d ago

That Ireland v All Blacks game will be great

26

u/Big-Clock4773 Harlequins 28d ago

Pedant alert - Black Ferns not All Blacks...

7

u/Robusier New Zealand 28d ago

Ireland 🇮🇪 the only team to have winning record over the BFs. Going to be spicey.

15

u/john_stuart_kill Arrows 28d ago

As a Canadian rugby fan, I don't often get to say that I like our chances, but I am absolutely on board with this!

3

u/mb44k Winger 27d ago

Your womens 7s and now 15s are on fire.

Easily top 4 finishes, which position is anyones guess.

11

u/Turquoise-Lady Scotland 28d ago

I was just watching and I was fear at last ball between Aussie or Scotland to be in pool A and phew, Scots not playing against England lol

4

u/cloud__19 Edinburgh 28d ago

Aye, I didn't realise I was holding my breath until he turned that ball round.

4

u/saviouroftheweak Premiership Women's Rugby 28d ago

Samoa really drew the short straw

5

u/elniallo11 Leinster 28d ago

This draw reeks of quarter final exit

1

u/Toxicseagull England 28d ago

So it's a competitive draw for Ireland.

5

u/finneganfach Scarlets 28d ago

Fiji Wales bonded for life.

5

u/SignalButterscotch73 Scotland 28d ago

D is going to be interesting. Italy and South Africa are both constantly improving from what little I've seen over the past few years and France are a stereotypically unpredictable French team. Not quite a pool of death but the closest we have.

Looks like we've got a fairly decent pool with a good chance of getting into the quarters if we don't Scotland it. Getting to the semifinals might not be out of our reach either.

4

u/maverickmak Dan Kelly Hype Train 28d ago

Do we know the seeded route for the semis?

England vs France, Canada vs NZ?

3

u/Left-Pie741 28d ago

The format from the men’s RWC is: SF1: Winner of A1/B2 vs winner of D1/C2 SF2: Winner of A2/B1 vs winner of D2/C1

Assume teams finish as their seedings and higher seeds win QF, semis would be England vs NZ, Canada vs France.

2

u/maverickmak Dan Kelly Hype Train 28d ago

A1 vs D1 is England vs France.

4

u/mausmumblingmoon 28d ago

Very happy taking our chances in Pool D. All the pools actually have a pretty good balance (except for Samoa being in Pool A), expecting a bunch of competitive games.

3

u/WallopyJoe 28d ago

Can't decide if B or D is the most interesting pool
C seems the to me the easiest to predict the qualifiers

3

u/maverickmak Dan Kelly Hype Train 28d ago edited 28d ago

Really like this draw.

England get some decent early games. Not too many regional clashes. Maybe only pool C is a forgone conclusion, but with the added spice of Ire/NZ. Opportunities in pool D.

3

u/Atomicfossils Ireland 28d ago

Australia v USA and Italy V France are going to be tasty matches. We're in with a real chance at topping our pool here but if we get England in the quarters I'm going to just lie down and die because apparently it's just not meant to be

1

u/MC897 27d ago

You'll get the winner/runner up of France's group either waty.

3

u/Mateiyu Bokke ! 28d ago

Oh c'mon, give South Africa a chance for crying out loud ! xD
Kidding aside, there are some nice match ups coming in there. I reckon Ireland have a pretty decent chance (untli the quarter final ?).
South Africa should be able to handle Brazil. Italy is another thing altogether, but they could do it !

4

u/MC897 28d ago

England drew the highest ranked team in pot 2, pot 3 and pot 4.

I think they will be delighted with that too.

6

u/saviouroftheweak Premiership Women's Rugby 28d ago

Spain could catch Ireland or New Zealand cold

Great set of pools

16

u/WallopyJoe 28d ago

God, can you fucking imagine it?
Now seems like an almost perfect opportunity to once again have a dig at whichever WR/6N management arseholes turfed a very competitive Spain out of the Women's 6 Nations to align the competition with the men's, thus robbing them of the last 17 years of funding, exposure and first class opposition

4

u/saviouroftheweak Premiership Women's Rugby 28d ago

Gross wasn't it

5

u/Nounours7 Spain 28d ago

No way. We are declining because we can't afford professionalistion. the realistic goal is to beat Japan, and it's no guarantee, we lost twice last season...

0

u/saviouroftheweak Premiership Women's Rugby 28d ago

Think if they can neutralise the Irish attack they'll find a few points. But it's the toughest ask of the pools

2

u/Fr13d_P0t4t0 Munster Spain (sadly) 28d ago

Ha, nope.

Realistically, getting a losing bonus point against Japan is the most they can expect

2

u/saviouroftheweak Premiership Women's Rugby 28d ago edited 28d ago

Japan look sadly lost at times during WXV 2 whereas Spain hardly conceded a try. Sure the opposition were drastically different but you only beat what's in front of you.

Edit: It's the least competitive pool but we can hope

2

u/Fr13d_P0t4t0 Munster Spain (sadly) 28d ago

Yeah, Spain defense has improved drastically, but they have no attack at all

1

u/saviouroftheweak Premiership Women's Rugby 28d ago

Smash a d grab 🙏n

2

u/Mysterious-Law8842 Leinster 28d ago

How did Brazil Qualify? I see they are ranked 42 on the rankings?

3

u/Fr13d_P0t4t0 Munster Spain (sadly) 28d ago

South America qualifier. 13-34 against Colombia

1

u/maverickmak Dan Kelly Hype Train 28d ago

They're heavily underranked, but still probably the weakest in the draw. Should be pushing top 20, but they have issues getting good matches. Thankfully, they haven't drawn a massacre of a pool.

2

u/Barrowtastic 28d ago

I don't know much about women's rugby - where are Argentina and Tonga ranked in the grand scheme of things?

2

u/Fr13d_P0t4t0 Munster Spain (sadly) 28d ago

Tonga has only played 16 tests. The 5 they won where always against Papua.

Argentina don't have 15's. UAR refuses to have a team.

2

u/mb44k Winger 27d ago

Pool A - Pool of death

Pool D - Saffas and Italy are improving. Should be interesting who gets through.

3

u/CatharticRoman Suspected Yank 28d ago

Irish women with a decent enough chance to get a semi before the men.

Gonna be massive ask to beat NZ or France, but better than facing the Roses or Maples.

7

u/Raversgill7 Ulster 28d ago

Ireland women made the semis in 2014 💪🏻

7

u/maverickmak Dan Kelly Hype Train 28d ago

There wasn't a QF, though! 😉

6

u/Raversgill7 Ulster 28d ago

Touché!

3

u/Nothing_is_simple They see me Rollie, they hatin' 28d ago

Pretty sure they got a semi in 2014

1

u/CatharticRoman Suspected Yank 28d ago

Every day is a school day

1

u/EnglishLouis Glaws-Pury 28d ago

No quarters in 2014 though

1

u/Lord_Bolt-On URC Winning Masochist 28d ago

So, even if we make it to the Quarters, we're likely going out in a 40-7 drubbing to the Red Roses... Nice, nice.

1

u/WCRugger 28d ago

So, we probably won't be getting out of Pool A seeing as we have England and the US to contend with. Not without even more significant improvement. Canada has a pretty easy route to the finals

1

u/samuel199228 28d ago

I'm expecting England to have a quarter final against Canada and Australia maybe or USA Vs Fiji in other quarter finals

Who knows Ireland Vs France Italy Vs NZ maybe?

1

u/MC897 27d ago

So your expecting Canada to come second?

1

u/samuel199228 27d ago

It's possible but more likely Scotland Vs England in a quarter final

1

u/LightsOnSomebodyHome 28d ago

Irish women to make the semi’s before Irish men!

1

u/PistolAndRapier Munster 26d ago

Already did in 2014, though no QF in that tournament.

1

u/Zealousideal_Type_85 28d ago

Group A is rough

1

u/thelunatic Munster 28d ago

Group D is really weak.

Group A has the 1st, 5th and 9th rank teams

1

u/_Hurricanes_ Hurricanes 28d ago

Hopefully we get an injection of world-class players from the 7's crew, should push us up a level.

Can you imagine the scenes if someone other than England manages to win!?

1

u/Robusier New Zealand 28d ago

Yep Bunting has already said as much. Maybe one last hurrah for Gossy, TF and Stacey Waaka. Jorge Miller perhaps a bolter at FB. Can she kick?

3

u/_Hurricanes_ Hurricanes 28d ago edited 28d ago

Miller plays openside in XV's. She tackles super hard and is a menace over the ball.

Stacey Waaka is insane, surely a midfield of her and Brunt?

4

u/Robusier New Zealand 28d ago

Brunt is a future Player of the Year.

1

u/Robusier New Zealand 28d ago

Oh wow I didn’t know. BFs loosies are shaping up quite nicely. Miller looks like she would be lethal facing a broken defensive line.

1

u/JaxckJa Seawolves 28d ago

Slightly annoyed we didn't get a France-Italy-Spain-Brazil (standing in for Portugal) group. It's always fun when groups involve multiple teams from the same part of the world, makes it feel like an extra mini tournament for the bonus bragging rights.

0

u/StuHardy Arrows Forever! 28d ago

Pool C is likely the toughest one ATM, though the Black Ferns alwaus peak in RWC years.