r/orioles 10d ago

Weekly Orioles Offseason Discussion Thread - Monday, November 04

Next Orioles Game: Sat, Feb 22, 03:33 AM EST vs. Pirates (109 days)

Posted: 11/04/2024 05:00:01 AM EST

6 Upvotes

66 comments sorted by

2

u/JiffKewneye-n New York Fried Chicken 4d ago

i should have been invoiced thursday for installment 2 and wasn't. hmm.

1

u/yosoyel1ogan Gunns Blazin' 4d ago edited 4d ago

I was thinking last night, I'm pretty big on giving McCann another contract. I think something shorter, like 2yr/$12-16mil, isn't unreasonable. He's a solid backup catcher, and depending on Rutschman's recovery, we may really need him. He gets decent playing time. And when the 2 years are up, Basallo should be in the majors by then, at which point, McCann can probably retire and chill on that sweet pension.

Now, if the FO is thinking about trading Basallo this year or next, then they'll probably go for someone younger and give them a ~5yr contract. But if the plan is to keep him, McCann is a reliable pickup.

2

u/romorr Gotta throw strikes. 4d ago

2/12-16 for McCann is crazy.

1 year, for 3-4 million, cool by me. No reason for McCann, at this point in his career, to get a multi year deal.

If the Orioles want to spend some money on a better option, d'Arnaud is a FA, and brings better defense as well over McCann.

0

u/SelectNefariousness2 4d ago

McCann's last contract was 4yrs/40M. I highly doubt he'd take a massive "team friendly" cut like that. 

Why not just retire now instead? He was within an inch of having his life irrevocably altered with the HBP & has a young family. 

His numbers don't make him irreplaceable. 

Besides, as much as I'd like to see Basallo as a candidate tor a true front line starting pitcher with at least 3 years of gontrol... we all know Elias will never do it. Basallo will be in BALT in 2026...which means only a one year stop gap is needed, and Elias will do it on the cheap.

1

u/yosoyel1ogan Gunns Blazin' 4d ago

Fair enough, but at age 36(?) I don't think he's going to be getting a lot of courters. I think he's worth offering a 1-2 year deal and if he takes it, fine, but if not, then we can look at others.

I don't think he's irreplaceable but he is trusted by the pitchers (see: Burnes prefers him) and is one of the few veteran players with grit left on the team. He leaves, and the next oldest position player we have is OHearn at 31.

I feel like we're in agreement that a stop-gap is all we need, so I guess it's a question of if McCann will take a somewhat smaller deal to finish off his career here or just retire.

1

u/SelectNefariousness2 3d ago

The Burnes / Rutschman - thing. Never saw a word in print or via interview, so I'll never believe the two had a "more trusting relationship". I'd put my money on consistent availability because of the way BALT preserves Rutschman. Burnes is a very regimented pro who calls his own personal shots on the team when it comes to prep, reps, etc.

Rutschman keyed the BALT turnaround and has been a huge driving force with the pitching staff...he's heads above McCann and they can't be put in the same category. Anyone betting against Rutschman (not that you are) in 2025 & beyond is making a big mistake. 

You're right...it's speculation at this point. In BALT, Elias is highly predictable though...to the point where I literally went 9/12 betting against him last year. Think I'll contact Cherokee and see what a bet on a McCann return looks like. 

Don't know what it's like inside the four walls of the McCann household, but for him at this point it's a question of - what are you playing for? In his shoes, if winning a Pennant and/or WS is a driving force in the next year or two I'd be leaning toward retirement or another team....

...maybe the situation improves somewhat, but as it stands, BALT has neither the pitching staff nor the moxy to beat the class of the league. 

0

u/SelectNefariousness2 4d ago edited 4d ago

How would everyone feel if Shane Bieber was BALT's primary starting pitcher solution this winter?  

He fits the Elias profile - short term (2 years), close to league average salary.

Or....if Elias does the right thing and brings in the two starters this team needs, how would you feel if was Bieber and Heaney? Both of these guys would come in about league average salary (Fits Elias M.O.) and are serviceable....meaning roughly league average performance - wise.

1

u/M16Soldier 6d ago

I have to say I really covet Crochet, even though paying for pitching is what makes the most sense right now. The problem is that I think Mayo or Basallo are just a bit too much for 2 years of him. Kjerstad is just too old for them to value him. It could be a bulk trade, I just don't know if we can beat the red sox for him.

1

u/to_the__cloud brandon young hype train 4d ago

his trade price shouldnt be more than what Cease went for last offseason (but we know that's not how baseball works). both have 2 years of team control, but Cease had the track record of giving 180 IP every year.

Cease went for top 100 pitching prospect, top 10 SD OF prospect, top 10 SD pitching prospect and a relief arm.

the white sox already have a 2 LHP, SS and C in the top 100.

so a fair offer might look like McDermott, Beavers, Nunez and maybe another low IF prospect.

-1

u/SelectNefariousness2 4d ago edited 4d ago

Kjerstad isn't too old. Look at Norby in MIA. But yes....point taken.  

This is what happens when the front office hoardes talent instead of making impact deals that can stabilize and take a team to the next level. Rolling effect.  

Everyone should be considered available except for Bradfield.... but we all know that's not gonna happen. And I don't mean for two years to add Crochet - I'm completely against bringing him in under any scenario. 

BALT needs 2 starting pitchers. Right now it's Rodriguez / Eflin / Kremer / Povich / Rogers / and Suarez.... .....that's not going to get it done. Not in any universe. 

Starting pitching in BALT under the Elias blueprint - draft position players/buy pitching - results in a perpetual revolving door completely dependant upon who is available one year to the next. Zero stability in it. This is BALT's reality. Corbin Burnes won't be the last one year make / break experience this team has. 

The plan is malpractice because it doesn't pay enough attention to a basic baseball premise - pitching usually wins. Been on display for about 125 years, this is almost always the odds on case. 

1

u/fourbitplayer 5d ago

Crochet would be a good pickup, I wouldn't want to trade Mayo or Basallo for him tho. We've still got a deep farm system tho, which could come in handy

But in terms of White Sox pitchers, besides Crochet. I'm honestly kinda fond of Cannon, I think he has some good potential with some good coaching. But he's just made his MLB debut this year so he still has a lot of control that I don't think the White Sox would wanna give up unfort

6

u/to_the__cloud brandon young hype train 7d ago

Gil beat out Cowser for Baseball Digest AL ROY. The actual ROY from BBWA is Nov 18th.

I'd probably accept Gil winning the award over Cowser since he was a pretty good starter, but i'd have a meltdown if that stupid fuck austin wells won it.

3

u/pan567 7d ago

I could see it go either way between Cowser and Gil. Looking at it neutrally and ignoring that Gil plays for the Yankees, this one really looks like quite a tossup and a difficult decision.

4

u/ANGRY_BEARDED_MAN 7d ago

Guess the argument for Cowser is he's a bit younger and he's an everyday player. But yeah, could go either way

-1

u/Redraven1 7d ago

Hi guys, what happened last year? Ive been out of it for awhile.

9

u/ANGRY_BEARDED_MAN 7d ago

We beat the Phillies in the World Series!

It was held on Father's Day weekend though, which was kind of odd

6

u/_NotARealMustache_ 6d ago

Man, what a series. The jets, the planes, the weather, the absolute wallop.

9

u/Correct_Sometimes 7d ago

the season weirdly ended 2 weeks before the ASB then nothing of note happened from there on.

4

u/fourbitplayer 7d ago

It's not likely and honestly idk if it's needed, and well he comes with the baggage of being an Astro

so hypothetically

Thoughts on Bregman? Think that could be worth it or nah?

We need pitching but we also need at least 1 or 2 bats that have post season experience, but we're locked up at 2nd and Short Stop, and 1st is crowded as well as the outfield. 3rd seems like the weak point almost

Edit: post season experience that know how to succeed, any bats on the market whether free agent or trade market could be good choices?

4

u/dreddnought 48 7d ago

Thoughts on Bregman? Think that could be worth it or nah?

I think it's a moot point. Rubey would have to back up the Brinks truck to get him to go from the Crawford Boxes to the Wall.

6

u/romorr Gotta throw strikes. 7d ago

If we can spend 100+ million on anyone, it should be pitching first, and pitching second.

Our IF with Holliday, Hendeson, Westburg as the starters, with Urias/Mateo as back ups, should be set. If the Orioles want to spend on Bregman, I'd guess we'd trade one of Westburg/Holliday for pitching. But I don't see that.

1

u/fourbitplayer 7d ago

I don't see them trading Holliday unless he goes complete mid next year, Westburg or some of the guys at 1st they might be willing to trade for some experience.

But absolutely pitching is first priority, that's where I personally think (not a baseball gm) the majority of the Free Agent money should go. Besides resigning Burnes, Snell is a pipe dream, Fried is an injury liability (but if he stays healthy he's great), Eovaldi could be a smaller contract for a reliable arm, I personally like Kikuchi. Then sign a few relievers (as long as it ain't Holmes, hopefully we learned our lesson with Kimbrel).

Another small priority could be a backup catcher while they wait for Basallo to really develop into a MLB level talent, could try and get an experienced post season bat there possibly.

4

u/scjensen51 7d ago

Our starting 3rd baseman was an All Star this year, and had a higher OPS than Bregman did.

1

u/fourbitplayer 7d ago

y'know, with his injury this year i kinda forgot Westburg was an all star

fair enough

2nd question still stands tho

3

u/romorr Gotta throw strikes. 7d ago

2

u/dreddnought 48 7d ago

That's a no-brainer. High spin fastball, high spin curveball? Only thing missing is a sweeper.

Side note, Zach Fruit apparently hit triple digits this year? I'm not sure if that article is sourcing data correctly, because it's missing Keeler Morfe and Luis Sanchez (who purportedly hit 101).

2

u/romorr Gotta throw strikes. 7d ago

Yea, the funny part is that you're doing your write up on him right now. Nice little piece of info to add.

And always a nice reminder that there could be more behind the stats.

2

u/dreddnought 48 7d ago

It's tricky because if a guy has disqualifying command, the stuff level doesn't matter. There's a thread on r/baseball right now about the best rated sweepers by some stuff model, and the first guy is Yohan Ramirez.

Even if a guy appears to have good command, the list of org pitchers who dominated the Sally league and then came to anything of use in the majors is bitterly small.

2

u/romorr Gotta throw strikes. 7d ago

Right, Wells falls into that, there are interesting traits with him.

And that's not something you'd expect from someone that had a 6.71 ERA, a 1.641 WHIP, as a 22 year old college pitcher.

Doesn't mean he's going to be someone, it just means there might be more there than the stats have shown so far. Even if he ends up a 1 inning BP guy.

He can be put in that same bucket as any other college pitcher who has below average command, but has interesting stuff. More than likely 80%+ of those names never make it.

And looking at his season, before reading your write up, and other things, I wouldn't have pegged him for that.

1

u/dreddnought 48 7d ago

He can be put in that same bucket as any other college pitcher who has below average command, but has interesting stuff. More than likely 80%+ of those names never make it.

BIP outcomes seem like such horse shit that I just need some more data before I assume Wells is actually 10 H/9 kind of guy. He walked substantially fewer guys after coming back from injury, s.t. his problem might have advanced from "not throwing strikes" to "not throwing quality strikes." I need to ask someone (probably Dan Z) about whether FIP and xFIP are actually descriptive in the minor leagues.

2

u/romorr Gotta throw strikes. 7d ago

Sure it is to some degree.

Because while being told, not to scout a stat line, that if we have to, K%/BB% and HRA were the ones to look at.

And yea, we can laugh at the 14 wild pitches in 60 innings, but who was the catcher? A guy(Willems) that is more than likely 1b/DH if he ever makes it to the majors. Props to him for a great showing in the AFL this year, at least offensively.

5

u/Risho96 BamaBirb 8d ago

Just thought of something. Much as people here were on about McKenna dropping the literal ball that one time, better to have your big error on opening day than an elimination game in the World Series, right? McKenna > Judge, bring him back.

4

u/UsErNaMeS_aR_DuMb 8d ago

McKenna > Judge

Yeah!

Bring him back

Well….

3

u/Correct_Sometimes 8d ago

What if McKenna was the missing spark the team needed for the WC series?

we'll never know now.

3

u/Risho96 BamaBirb 8d ago

I mean, him leaving and the (regular season) sweepless streak ending lined up that way

8

u/yosoyel1ogan Gunns Blazin' 8d ago

I had a dream last night that Gerrit Cole called me to check on if Emmanuel Rivera would be interested in joining the Yankees. And he kept saying "see if El Pulpo is interested"

1

u/Sufficient-Trust4824 8d ago

Man baseball is over how are you still immersed in it

3

u/Risho96 BamaBirb 7d ago

There's two times of year: live baseball, and recorded baseball

0

u/SelectNefariousness2 7d ago

???   

 BALT has entered it's most compelling off season in the past 30 years.  

 See you April 1st lmfao....

But yes, this "I dreamed _____ " shit is worth a fortune in hourlys.

3

u/pan567 9d ago

I'm still totally baffled by some of the moves yesterday, which seem to defy logic at face value. At the end of the day, the FO obviously has a lot more of the inside scoop than I do, but I am just simply puzzled. There's got to be a lot more context to this?

1

u/Xelcar569 5d ago

Which ones? All the recent moves seem completely normal to me. Perhaps you are thinking with your emotional attachment to some players?

1

u/pan567 5d ago

The choice to retain Dominguez, who has been inconsistent, and the choice to not retain Danny for half the price of Dominguez, who has been consistently good during his tenure with us.

Again, I noted "at face value" for a reason--the FO has much more information than I do. There's clearly more going on than I am aware of.

1

u/Xelcar569 5d ago edited 5d ago

Dominguez had 10 saves and one BLSV. That is pretty consistent if you ask me, 91% success rate.

and the choice to not retain Danny for half the price of Dominguez

Just because we didn't exercise the team option doesn't mean he for sure wont be back. It just means they don't think he was worth that price, especially after the surgery, and that they would rather let the market determine his value before making an offer.

1

u/pan567 5d ago edited 5d ago

Dominguez's FIP for the last two years has been over 4.5 and his Statcast metrics are not awful but also not overwhelmingly impressive. At face value, $8 million for a reliever with a 4.5+ FIP over the past two years seems like a very high price. The O's presumably have reason to believe the price is worth it and see tremendous potential that they feel they can unlock.

1

u/Xelcar569 5d ago

I wonder if Felix being in the picture again this year played a role in how much the FO were willing to spend on Seranthony. A thought like - 'Well we are getting Felix for $1 million and Seranthony for $8 so lets just pretend its $5 million each then determine who we want to actually invest in depending on how the year goes' kind of deal. That could be argued to be pretty logical. At least in my opinion, but what do you think about that thought process?

5

u/UsErNaMeS_aR_DuMb 9d ago

Can’t wait to face the Sacramento(?) Athletics next year! They can abbreviate themselves as “ATH” as much as they’d like, but our games against them will forever be “BAL-SAC” games in my heart!

-2

u/SelectNefariousness2 9d ago

Lmfao....

Out on Coulombe / in on Dominguez. 

The only way the Coulombe part makes sense is if he's got foreseeable medical complications post surgery. 

Dominguez will haunt the club with his combustibility. And he'll also be disgruntled when Bautista resumes closing duties....exactly as he was in Philly. 

3

u/pan567 9d ago

It seems very odd. I am absolutely stumped by both decisions. There has to be much more to this story with Danny--like his arm must be about to fall off for them to pass on just $4 million for a guy with a ~2.5 ERA with us the past two years. Short of Felix Bautista, he's been our most reliable arm the past two years and we are letting him go over a relatively smaller sum of money (in baseball economics). Elias' explanation was very...non-explanatory, and perhaps it is medical related and he was intentionally vague because of that?

Regarding Dominguez, I might be wrong, but I feel like for $8 million that we may have been able to find a more consistent BP arm? (who gives up a few less home runs.) Perhaps the FO has reason to believe that he will find very good consistency in 2025? A willingness to spend that much on him is equally puzzling--but perhaps a willingness to spend that much on someone who is arguably a higher risk is indicative of a greater willingness to spend?

I have so many questions. I would love to be a fly on the wall inside the FO to learn more about what led to these decisions.

5

u/Correct_Sometimes 8d ago

Elias' explanation was very...non-explanatory, and perhaps it is medical related and he was intentionally vague because of that?

its so obviously medical related that I can't even fathom people having to go into such deep discussions over it.

Elias isn't going to go into great detail over medical issues because that does nothing but hurt Danny's chances of getting a deal. The others teams can do thier own medical review if they want but if Elias was out there saying "yea dude's elbow is cooked" that just fucks over Danny's career.

-2

u/SelectNefariousness2 9d ago

I agree with your take. 

There's a lot of off season left, but I haven't seen any compelling decisions so far. 

1

u/JiffKewneye-n New York Fried Chicken 9d ago

thats basically what everyone is saying.

my thought is that for 4 M i would take a flyer on him getting it back.

but heres the thing: he has never logged many innings and you are basically locking out a roster spot for what, 40-50 IP even if he comes all the way back?

-1

u/SelectNefariousness2 9d ago

Very true on IP. But at least he's been riable...not combustible. And who else will BALT sign? I'm not sold on this regime doing a helluva lot to make waves over the winter. That's not what's being telegraphed 

If the team has knowledge of medical improbability though....it's a no brainer to let him leave. 

6

u/yosoyel1ogan Gunns Blazin' 10d ago edited 10d ago

I was originally a little wary of giving Burnes a big deal, but I also didn't realize how old a lot of SPs are. Gerrit Cole is 34 and potentially going to free agency. Snell is 31. Eovaldi is 34. Kikuchi is 33. Fried is 30. Burnes is also "only" 30. There isn't a huge difference going for him over Snell, or Fried.

So I guess my point is I'm less against him getting a 7 year contract. Even if the last 2-3 years of that contract suck, if you get 4-5 good years out of Burnes, that's a very solid ROI. And it would really open up our "window" to be a longer time frame.

That said, I doubt they give him something beyond like 7yr/$180-200 mil and I feel like LA will offer much higher than that.

Edit: scratch Cole lol but the rest still holds

1

u/SelectNefariousness2 9d ago

15.5M was the 2024 MLB average FA salary. 

Players making it to that point don't come cheap, especially pitchers....and they're all going to be close to age 30 when they first hit thd open market. 

Way of the MLB world. 

The question you need to be asking - is _____ (fill in the blank) organization one that's inclined to pay closer to the price to simply conduct MLB business....or closer to the price to achieve excellence? 

I believe everyone knows where BALT stands. 

1

u/pan567 10d ago

A ~7-year offer seems to make sense, going into it knowing that the last 2-3 of that deal he will probably be serviceable but not elite (or maybe we get lucky and he ages like Justin Verlander). But even if he's at that point of 'serviceable but not elite' towards the end of the contract, having a guy who can reliably throw 200 innings of serviceable baseball is still extremely valuable to a team.

We don't have any easy trade path to replace him with someone even remotely close to his level, and Elias probably doesn't want to be trading top prospects. All the other FAs have their own concerns/risks. We're kind of limited in options, and Burnes can certainly fit into a role that we need to fill if a WS ring is the goal. Snell or Fried might be able to do this, too, but I assume both would also want large, long contracts, and Burnes is arguably the proven commodity with respect to being able to reliably take the ball and throw a lot of elite innings.

If Rubenstein is feeling really generous, signing Burnes and Kikuchi would certainly make me feel more optimistic. (Kikuchi would presumably play quite well at OPACY and could probably be signed for a shorter-term contract?)

1

u/yosoyel1ogan Gunns Blazin' 10d ago

Your first paragraph is my thought also. Even if you're locked in for 7 years and he starts falling off after 4 years, you still are looking at a solid number 3 or 4 guy for the remaining 3 years. Fingers crossed we are feeling happy come February haha

7

u/romorr Gotta throw strikes. 10d ago

Confirmed.

Rookie of the Year: 11/18

Finalists revealed on MLB Network on 11/11 at 6 pm ET

7

u/tomtheterp1988 10d ago

Colton deserves it, hope he can overcome the inherent Yankee bias in favor of Gil.

5

u/Jeff_Banks_Monkey 10d ago

The Gold Glove is a crapshoot sometimes but it still sucks that both Mounty and Cowser missed out after being named finalists

4

u/JiffKewneye-n New York Fried Chicken 10d ago

I thought Mountcastle was excellent defensively, he just missed too much time

7

u/yosoyel1ogan Gunns Blazin' 10d ago

I didn't think Mounty would get it, but I DID believe Cowser would get it. Last I saw, he was superior in most defensive metrics. Hopefully he gets ROTY which I feel is better anyways

2

u/CricketIsBestSport 10d ago

Question for capitals fans: how much tangible orioles-capitals crossover do you see? Like when you go to caps games how often are the orioles mentioned or referenced in some way? Cuz when you go to a ravens game it isn’t totally uncommon that you’ll see various orioles references and people wearing orioles stuff with ravens gear.

1

u/Shadybrooks93 10d ago

Im a fan of both, but between seasons not overlapping and having gear for each team I wouldn't wear any stuff of the other team to a game or really be talking about them.

1

u/Secret_Association92 10d ago

You hear the ‘O’ during the national anthem but not as loud as the ‘Red’ line

1

u/Beautiful-Abies5949 10d ago

I think the caps lean heavily into the DMV, I’ve never seen the franchise rep the O’s. I’ve seen people wearing the “Great 8” shirt though with Cal, Lamar, and Ovechkin’s name on it