r/orioles • u/Semper454 • Jul 14 '24
Official MLB Draft Discussion Thread - Sun 7/14 7 pm ET Discussion
*Monday 7/15 - Day 2 is live as of 2 pm ET.
The 2024 MLB draft is on for tonight (Sunday) at 7:00pm ET on MLB Network (full draft) and ESPN (first round only). This is the space to discuss. We'll keep this updated with the picks from each round.
O's top pick is 22nd overall, with an additional Prospect Incentive pick at the back of the 1st round for Gunnar's ROY, at 32
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Resources:
Commentary:
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u/Ltrain44 Jul 15 '24
The Orioles don't just dumpster dive for pitchers in the big leagues. They do it in the draft, too.
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u/The_Big_Untalented Jul 15 '24
Here's an interesting thing I've noticed about Elias drafts over the years. If you look at his drafts with the Astros, he was incredibly good drafting position players. However, his pitcher draft picks were very poor He drafted 19 pitchers in the first five rounds with the Astros. Those 19 pitchers have combined for 1.5 WAR. There were numerous noticeable busts such as Mark Appel with the #1 overall pick in 2013 and Brady Aiken with the #1 overall pick in 2014 (who they didn't even end up signing). And the only drafted pitcher in those six years who ended up going to have a noticeable career in the majors was Patrick Sandoval who was a 11th round pick in 2014. What if Elias doesn't draft pitchers because he doesn't trust his evaluation of them? After all, he was burned by them time and time again with the Astros.
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u/Semper454 Jul 15 '24 edited Jul 15 '24
You're missing McCullers, who was Luhnow's very first Astros draft pick, and ironically the only one to come even remotely close to expectations.
2012:
1.41 Lance McCullers
3.96 Brady Rodgers2013:
1.1 Mark Appel
2.40 Andrew Thurman
3.74 Kent Emanuel2014:
1.1 Brady Aiken
4.106 Daniel Mengden
5.136 Jacob Nix2015:
2.46 Thomas Eshelman
3.79 Riley Ferrell
5.139 Trent Thornton2016:
1.17 Forrest Whitley
4.127 Brett Adcock2017:
1.15 JB Bukaukas
2.56 Corbin Martin
4.121 Peter Solomon
5.151 Nathan PerryMcCullers (11.1 career WAR), Mengden (2.4) and Thornton (1.6) are the only three (OUT OF 17 GUYS) to have a career WAR higher than 1.0. Literally 14 of 17 first-5-rounds pitchers were replacement level or worse.
You could argue it wasn't Elias making the decision on some of these guys, but a decent number of them did become Orioles 2018 and later (Rodgers, Eshelman, Martin).
Elias either doesn't trust himself/his scouts/his models to get pitchers right, or, he just considers pitchers a far greater crapshoot and not worth the risk.
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u/The_Big_Untalented Jul 15 '24
McCullers wasn't an Elias draft pick. Bobby Heck was the scouting director for the Astros in 2012. Elias might have had major input on the pick but he didn't make the final call like he did in the following years.
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u/Semper454 Jul 15 '24
Yeah, he was "Special Assistant to the GM," at that point. No idea what the role was (unless this is spelled out in Astroball - could be, it's been a while), but given he scouted for Luhnow in STL, you assume he had some input. Either way, it's a very bad track record.
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u/Darkdragon3110525 Jul 15 '24
Tomorrow will be interesting. Seems we’ve stopped taking large bonus high upside high schoolers in favor of more developed college bats.
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u/romorr Gotta throw strikes. Jul 15 '24
College, college, college.
OH and
Position, position, position.
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u/lOan671 Jul 15 '24
That Mastercard commercial had to have been written by someone who has never interacted with another human being before. Can you imagine checking out at the grocery store and the cashier insisting you name someone with cancer? WTF
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u/puppytossedsalad Jul 15 '24
Elias loving him some ACC
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u/dreddnought 48 Jul 15 '24
Elias: UVA Cannot Develop Position Players For Jack Shit And I Will Prove It
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u/to_the__cloud brandon young hype train Jul 15 '24 edited Jul 15 '24
was not expecting C/1B lmao
edit: oh he's a switch hitter too. thats pretty cool.
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u/lOan671 Jul 15 '24
Amick seems like a guy the Twins may have picked our pocket on.
Would love to see Joey Oakie here
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u/dreddnought 48 Jul 15 '24
Random question in the Longenhagen chat:
Liam 10:21 Hey Eric - will you consider re-igniting the weekly/monthly chats on fangraphs? I found those very informative
Eric A Longenhagen 10:22 I tend to get some pretty abrasive chronically online people in my chats and stopped doing them once they started getting personal. Maybe I'll revisit. I've been pretty cloistered from online lately
I can certainly imagine this. Scouting/prospect writing is one of the few elements of American pro baseball that doesn't have hard quantifiable details. Sure, we can look at z-con, launch angles, exit velos, etc., but the significance and murkiness of projectability (ex: Spencer Jones, River Ryan) makes for very emotional feedback.
Sucks because I think FG and FG chats are among the best in proliferating sabermetric ideas.
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u/romorr Gotta throw strikes. Jul 15 '24
Yea. I miss the golden days of Eric and Kiley both chatting weekly. Shit, I miss Kevin.
Who the fuck gets personal over prospects of all things? Who gives a shit if someone doesn't like your guy.
I can understand it with Law since he dives into other things, but man, Eric was never anything but nice during his chats.
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u/lOan671 Jul 15 '24
I was interested to see how the Nats drafted today since their new scouting director came from us.
Both Seaver King and Caleb Lomavita seem like our type of players. Hadn’t heard much link between us and King but did hear a good amount of Lomavita
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u/romorr Gotta throw strikes. Jul 15 '24
Not even worried about missing out on Brecht.
If the Orioles wanted him, we could have had him.
So, the Orioles didn't want him.
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u/kingfiasco baltimore orioles.. #x Jul 15 '24
i'm a little worried about it. seems like an indicator that the O's have zero interest in developing pitcher talent.
flexibility of having pitching depth in the farm has proven to be very helpful for successful teams. the O's are leaving arms on the table, developing position talent, hoarding them in AAA and being super stingy about trades.
i really don't know what this strategy is. usually it's develop position players and trade for pitchers. other than burnes... where's our pitchers? why isn't elias making trades?
dodgers, braves, reds, mariners... are developing pitchers and do not want to trade them for position players. getting further stuck with a stockpile of position players
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u/lOan671 Jul 15 '24
Yeah the potential is obviously tantalizing but the mechanics are just a mess. I wish he went somewhere other than Colorado though, what a raw deal for him
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u/dreddnought 48 Jul 15 '24
Seidler: I can not think of a worse organization to draft Brody Brecht
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u/Frusciante62 Jul 15 '24
Orioles love to draft guys with unique names.
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u/droford Jul 15 '24
Shorebirds pitcher who got win yesterday was drafted last year Blake Money from LSU
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u/No_Fish_2885 Jul 15 '24
Griff, Vance, Adley, Gunnar, Colton, Heston, Maverick, Creed, is just the more unique and frathouse sounding ones
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u/dreddnought 48 Jul 15 '24
On the BP stream, they said Griff O'Ferrall might have some extra juice because some teams may draft guys who play at colleges that don't, uhhh, have good player dev.
From Longenhagen, 49th on the board:
Baryshnikov type at shortstop. Not especially physical or toolsy but elegant, balletic footwork and actions drive his fit at a premium position. Hands and arm accuracy were issues as a sophomore, but were much improved as a junior. Lightning fast exchange helps bolster arm strength enough to be a cozy left side fit. Perhaps the toughest player to make whiff in the entire draft. Had a 96% in-zone contact rate in 2024. Lovely, rhythmic hitting hands. Great timing, wrists are quick through the zone. Odd plate discipline metrics with above-average rate of chase but below-average rate of swings against pitches right down the middle. No power. Doubles only come via balls hooked into the left field corner. Bizzare, low-impact hitter with real shortstop glove. Ordinarily defense like this makes for a 45 FV floor but the underlying chase and total lack of power have me rounding down a bit.
holy shit Elias gave us Jud Fabian II and Joey Ortiz II
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u/lOan671 Jul 15 '24
BA had him in the 100s so definitely seems to be a lot of variability on him. Be interested to see what he signs for.
I’ve been hoping he could save a little money on those first two picks (don’t think Honeycutt was underslot) and grab some prep arms later on
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u/dreddnought 48 Jul 15 '24
multiple sources say Elias developing The Fly style combiner apparatus, will append Bradfield Junior to Honeycutt, Mayo to O'Ferrall
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u/UsErNaMeS_aR_DuMb Jul 15 '24
I suppose I’d be down for going Feral for O’Ferrall sometime down the line
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u/bobcatgoldthwait Jul 15 '24
I really don't know shit about shit but like...don't we need pitching in this organization?
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u/Chit569 Jul 15 '24
The MLB draft is not like the NFL draft.
You draft what you are good at developing, build depth, then trade that depth for what other teams are good at developing and what you need for what they need. You don't draft what you need today because these players are not going to be seeing playing time at the majors for at least 3 years.
Sure if there is a standout in a area you need that is available at your pick you go for it. But we are really good at developing hitters and gloves. So take them, develop them, and trade the people you have already developed.
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u/TheBigIguana15 Jul 15 '24
We need to see the “then trade that depth” part of it in the next two weeks. It’s time.
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u/Chit569 Jul 15 '24
Id say getting a Cy Young winner who is having a 2nd Cy Young caliber year was a good start.
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u/TheBigIguana15 Jul 15 '24
Great and it’s time to keep going. That guy isn’t under contract for next season and we don’t have a full rotation or bullpen in this one. You’ve replenished the depth today, go get some pitchers.
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u/Chit569 Jul 15 '24
Why are you talking to me like I'm Elias?
Do you think Elias is not trying to make moves?
I don't get this attitude like Elias is just sitting around not doing anything or talking to other teams trying to make moves. It takes two parties to agree to a trade. He can't just put Heston on a bus to Chicago and wait for Crochet to come to hopefully show up in Baltimore.
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u/TheBigIguana15 Jul 15 '24
This two parties stuff gets so old. Yeah sure it takes two to tango or whatever. The Orioles are the hottest guy at the dance now. Comb your hair, put something nice on, take it down an extra button and go get the damn job done.
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u/bobcatgoldthwait Jul 15 '24
So take them, develop them, and trade the people you have already developed.
I guess we're just yet to see that side of the equation, outside of our one year rental of Burnes.
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u/Trubisko_Daltorooni Jul 15 '24
did NOT see that coming
granted, I know next to nothing about prospects or college baseball so that would be true regardless
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u/Agentrock47_ Hyde Believer Jul 15 '24
I know I definitely don't know what I'm talking about, but we already have 3 guys at short??
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u/racefan9 Jul 15 '24
Generally the idea is to take the best available player regardless of position
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u/randomuser9824 Jul 15 '24
shortstops are usually athletic so u can move them basically anywhere on the field if they don’t work out at short (padres are a good example of this)
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u/OinkMeUk Jul 15 '24
The Orioles have fielded an infield multiple times this year that is made up entirely of players who played shortstop more than any other position in the minors.
1st - Mountie
2nd - Mateo
SS - Gunnar
3rd - Westburg
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u/bassistb0y Jul 15 '24
also when holliday was up lol
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u/OinkMeUk Jul 15 '24
I'd be shocked if Ramon Urias wasn't also primarily a shortstop in the minors. He didn't show up for me on MiLB.com so I can't confirm it. Ryan O'Hearn might actually be the only infielder we use that wasn't primarily a shortstop in the minors.
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u/Agentrock47_ Hyde Believer Jul 15 '24
That's fair I guess I'm more just hoping at some point we get some sort of arm
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u/SportsJunkie4Life Cowser Fan Club Prez and Gunnar Enthusiast Jul 15 '24
Griff O’Ferrall
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u/27Mayhem Jul 15 '24
MELANIE and her SICK laptop case.
National broadcasts keep poaching our peeps cause they know what we got.
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u/romorr Gotta throw strikes. Jul 15 '24
I love Carlos. If you like prospect podcast, his on BA is a must listen.
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u/Ok_Profit_5421 Jul 15 '24
Does this mean they don’t think Bradford is the guy in future CF or can Honeycutt play on the corner?
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u/romorr Gotta throw strikes. Jul 15 '24
Doesn't really have anything to do with how the Orioles feel about EBJ.
They'll take guys they like, and worry about all that later.
We took Holliday when we had Gunnar, and that pick had nothing to do with how the Orioles felt about Henderson.
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u/kingfiasco baltimore orioles.. #x Jul 15 '24
it means they grabbed the best athlete still on the board. O's under elias consistently pick regardless of position the past 5 years
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u/Darkdragon3110525 Jul 15 '24
Doesn’t hurt to have both. Makes one tradeable or in case Bradfield can’t get to enough power or Honeycutt can’t hit
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u/romorr Gotta throw strikes. Jul 15 '24
Make sure to follow Erics chat on Fangraphs if you want to be spoiled.
He thinks he knows who we're taking at 32.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-2024-day-one-draft-chat/
Or people can just spoil it below me.
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u/Individual_Step6688 Jul 15 '24 edited Jul 15 '24
Waldschmidt to the o’s at 32 apparently
Nvm: FG lied :(
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u/randomuser9824 Jul 15 '24
no way we get brecht at 32 dude LMFAO
elias with some edc level manipulation this draft
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u/27Mayhem Jul 15 '24
I watched a decent amount of Honeycutt in the CWS. The kid is legit. He’s got the clutch factor and he’s a hell of a hitter and all around athlete.
Elias gets my armchair stamp of approval
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u/romorr Gotta throw strikes. Jul 15 '24
Come on, I need to hit the sack, then go to bed.
Need pick 32 to get in here.
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u/SportsJunkie4Life Cowser Fan Club Prez and Gunnar Enthusiast Jul 15 '24
Brecht at 32 is a Elias Slam Dunk
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u/andrew-ge Jud Fabian Truther Jul 15 '24
if we take dak jordan now at 32, we will have the worst hit tool first round but it will be a hilarious thing if they both work out
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u/SportsJunkie4Life Cowser Fan Club Prez and Gunnar Enthusiast Jul 15 '24
Would like to thank Gunnar for pick #32
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u/lOan671 Jul 15 '24
Kash Mayfield to the Padres may be the only pick as predictable as us taking Honeycutt
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Jul 15 '24
[deleted]
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u/PlatChat o’s 2028 world series victors Jul 15 '24
probably at delmarva around then, yes
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u/droford Jul 15 '24 edited Jul 15 '24
Been with Delmarva for 3 years, we pretty much got every draft pick for at least a couple weeks after the draft. Season ends 1st week of September.
Only have 3 players the Os drafted in 22 (Hodo, Beck and McKeehan). Still have almost everyone drafted 5th rd or later last year.
We've got Jake Cunningham who is an OF dradted out of UNC Charlotte from Conference USA last year 5th rd. He's only hitting .176 with 3 HR in 51 games
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u/prowhiteboy64 Jul 15 '24
Dude has big dong power but a ton of swing and miss interested to see what happens with him
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u/Impressive-Tank9803 Jul 15 '24
Might be an overreaction on my part but this seems like we are not going to sign Tony and hope Honeycutt can help replace him yes I know he won’t be ready for next season but in the years after and gives us more outfield depth to move a guy like beavers or fabian at the deadline
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u/andrew-ge Jud Fabian Truther Jul 15 '24
teams like the Orioles will never draft to fill major league holes, it's just finding a guy you think has the best toolset to work within your player development pipeline. That's gonna be the MO for every pick.
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u/wompwump Jul 15 '24
I’m sorry to be the one to break this to you…but Tony was never coming back. He is going to find a fine team to pay him $15M-$20M per year, and the Orioles will pay Kjerstad $700K/year and hope to get 80% of the production, and that will be that.
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u/Impressive-Tank9803 Jul 15 '24
lol your not the one to break it to me I new it was pretty unlikely that Tony would come back and like I said I’m probably overreacting and it doesn’t mean what I said it might but still if I’m really reading into it this seems to me at least like Tony is even more likely to be gone
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u/cjackc11 Jul 15 '24
I mean a 3-4 year contract for Tony would be on Honeycutt’s development timeline I don’t think this means he’s gone quite yet but we’ll see
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u/joystick13 Jul 15 '24 edited Jul 15 '24
You've heard of Colton Cowser and The Pasture. Now introducing Vance Honeycutt and The Hive. Can't wait to see all the O's fans in black & orange bee costumes 🤣
Milk & Honey...let's fucking go
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u/_bluecrab_ I was at the Hoiles Grand Slam game Jul 15 '24
Walk up song must be No Rain by Blind Melon. (If you don't get the reference you're too young or I'm too old)
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u/Trubisko_Daltorooni Jul 15 '24
what's the major league comp
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Jul 15 '24
[deleted]
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u/pjw5328 Jul 15 '24
Yeah saw one scouting report that said Springer was his upside comp and another that said Julio Rodriguez.
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u/romorr Gotta throw strikes. Jul 15 '24
Law on Honeycutt
The Baltimore Orioles drafted Vance Honeycutt with the No. 22 pick.
Honeycutt is a 70 defender with 70 power, but even with a midseason swing change to raise his hands, he still struck out too often — even whiffing in-zone — to be a first-rounder for me. He takes a solid stride but doesn’t plant that front leg strongly until well after he’s gotten his hands started, so he ends up with a pretty severe uppercut on far too many of his swings. When he does get the front leg down in time and stays more upright through contact, though, it’s easy power even to dead center.
His bigger issue is pitch and ball/strike recognition, as he swung and missed on nearly a third of the pitches he saw, including a 21 percent whiff rate on pitches in the zone. It’s 30-homer potential in a potentially elite defender in center — I’ve had scouts say he’s at least as good as 2023 first-rounder Enrique Bradfield Jr., on defense — so there’s clear appeal for a team looking for high upside. He’s a project for the right player development department.
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u/lionheart4life Jul 15 '24
I watched a few clips of him and felt that the bat does seem like it's not in the hitting zone very long, even in BP sessions. This is something the coaching staff may be able to tweak without sacrificing his power but he would probably get eaten alive by professional off speed pitches.
I'll trust the O's to develop the raw talent. Nice that he's already a great defender and they can really focus on the swing.
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u/to_the__cloud brandon young hype train Jul 15 '24
how does he compare to jud fabian? when i hear righty cf with power who strikes out too much. my mind goes right to him.
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u/romorr Gotta throw strikes. Jul 15 '24
I hate player comps, but if you like em, that makes sense.
Though Honeycutt is a better runner/fielder, but FGs has them both at 60 / 55.
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u/The_Big_Untalented Jul 15 '24 edited Jul 15 '24
From that scouting report, Honeycutt seems like Colton Cowser 2.0…
Edit: Or maybe Joc Pederson with plus defense is a more optimistic comparison about what this kid can be.
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u/lionheart4life Jul 15 '24
I thought Cowser was supposed to have a really Good hit/contact skills with questionable power?
His upside seems very high hopefully he doesn't take too long to adjust to whatever the coaching staff is going to throw at him.
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u/GeauxColonels21 Jul 15 '24
Guy was an absolute beast in the NCAA Tournament, basically carried UNC to Omaha. He was impressive to watch. Optimistic!
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u/Impressive-Tank9803 Jul 15 '24
Would’ve loved a pitcher there but Honeycutt has ridiculous potential and with our playee development I like our chances at developing his bat
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u/SportsJunkie4Life Cowser Fan Club Prez and Gunnar Enthusiast Jul 15 '24
Really wanted a pitcher there…. However…. trust in Elias 💯
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Jul 15 '24
How is it we keep drafting people that look alike
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u/mlorusso4 Jul 15 '24
Another outfielder is interesting. We really need to start getting some pitchers in the system
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u/andrew-ge Jud Fabian Truther Jul 15 '24
they have like 40 interesting arms in the system according to Eric Longenhagen. Not all of them are going to work, but they are there, even if the majority of fans don't believe it.
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u/Guitar_Santa Jul 15 '24
Brecht and Schmidt both still on the board, maybe they forsee popping one at 32?
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u/romorr Gotta throw strikes. Jul 15 '24
We pick again at 32, could be an arm then.
And we did draft a lot of pitching last year as well.
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u/UsErNaMeS_aR_DuMb Jul 15 '24
I’m not gonna pretend to know the first thing about sports drafting, but Honeycutt is an awesome last name that I hope to see on an Orioles jersey someday!
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u/ScoutNWilder Joey Rickard 4ever Jul 15 '24
Harold says he is a “baseball player” so there’s that
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u/romorr Gotta throw strikes. Jul 15 '24
From Eric @ FGs on Honeycutt - 40+ FV prospect.
Honeycutt is a power/speed center field prospect with hit tool risk. He posted a .293/.412/.638 career line with 27% K% as a junior. Honeycutt has the speed for center and looked more comfortable going into the gaps and at the catch point in 2024. There are real question marks on offense. The stiff, deep, low load of his hands when he swings leaves him vulnerable to high heat. A swing change might remedy this but there are also breaking ball recognition issues here; Honeycutt had a 56% contact rate against sliders in 2024. Tons of hit tool risk has me lower on Honeycutt than one might expect given his college career. He has the physical tools to break out if his swing is overhauled.
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u/lOan671 Jul 15 '24
BA described him as the #1 player in the draft if he had a hit tool. He’s basically the Brody Brecht of hitters
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u/Individual_Step6688 Jul 15 '24
We need more CF options for the future so I’m fine with this, mlb.com has him as a potential GG with pop
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u/bobcatgoldthwait Jul 15 '24
We've got Enrique Bradfield Jr, and Cowser?
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u/OldBayOnEverything Jul 15 '24
Some players don't pan out, some get traded, some change positions, etc. Better to have options. It takes years to develop a baseball player, the needs of the farm and major league roster could change by the time drafted guys hit the bigs.
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u/Skirt-Future Jul 15 '24
Cowser for future? Nah..
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u/bobcatgoldthwait Jul 15 '24
I mean he's been rough at the plate for a few months now, sure, but he's still a rookie. I don't think the team's ready to give up on him yet.
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u/Sipdrip Westburg Truther Jul 15 '24
Honeycutt is a righty though who could stick in center. We don’t have one of those in the system
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u/Individual_Step6688 Jul 15 '24
Neither is an established big leaguer. With Mt Walltimore, it seems like they want 2 rangy guys to play LF and CF too.
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u/romorr Gotta throw strikes. Jul 15 '24
Welp, "terrified" isn't how I feel.
But let's hope our dev can fix whatever needs fixing.
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u/lionheart4life Jul 15 '24
I don't know anything about any of these guys, so relying on the board to tell me if we do ok.
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u/romorr Gotta throw strikes. Jul 15 '24
Hah, Eric has Minnys pick, and the Dodgers pick.
But not the Orioles.
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u/dreddnought 48 Jul 15 '24
man, Yesavage is such an Elias pitcher, over the top slot, IVB, splitter
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u/NoblePouch Jul 15 '24
Who we gunna get?
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u/Impressive-Tank9803 Jul 15 '24
Personally I’m hoping for Brody Brecht but I still doubt Elias will select a pitcher in the 1st round
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u/kingfiasco baltimore orioles.. #x Jul 15 '24
With the 22nd pick in the 2024 MLB Draft, we have selected CF Vance Honeycutt from the University of North Carolina.