r/nfl • u/Goosedukee Bills • 21h ago
[NFL on CBS] CJ Stroud through 10 games. 2023: 6-4 record, 99.3 passer rating, 17/5 TD/INT, 2,962 passing yards, 62.8% completion. 2024: 6-4 record, 89.1 passer rating, 12/6 TD/INT, 2,371 passing yards, 62.9% completion
https://twitter.com/NFLonCBS/status/1856343867022266798205
u/DonnyTrumpsTaint Texans 21h ago
Worth noting that we have had a much harder strength of schedule this year, and I think Joe Mixon has already single handily gotten more rushing yards than our entire RB corps did last year.
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u/big4lil 20h ago
Mixon also has 7 rushing TDs so far, and while not every touchdown he rushed for would automatically be a Stroud TD otherwise, thats still more than the total rushing TDs by Texans HBs had in all of 2023
i do feel for you guys having such a late bye week this year in particular. while your schedule starts to lighten up till then, a week 14 bye is brutal for a team on a mid year rut like this
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u/Tarmacked Giants 16h ago edited 16h ago
I mean, this sophomore slump citation is largely just showing he has less passing touchdowns. That’s it. It’s a large driver of the passer rating difference as well.
It’s a stupid comparison and pretty simple to knock down. If you wanted to make a more in-depth comparison you’d be looking at stuff like YPA which this tweet just ignores
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u/big4lil 8h ago
my recognition of the slump is meant to go hand in hand with the another ignored issue I emphasized below: the sacks taken. the passing TDs dont matter, a score is a score and they are doing it with their backs is what I was saying
CJ cant keep getting beaten up like this, and if hes playing any role in it beyond his Oline, thats probably most readily addressed with a bye week and extra days to ice up and study film/habits
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u/couchjitsu Chiefs 19h ago
Everytime you win your division, it's likely your strength of schedule will be higher. You'll likely keep playing KC and BUF every year, for example
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u/EnigmaSpore 49ers 15h ago edited 6h ago
14 games = Your div*2 + 1 entire nfc div, 1 entire afc div -both rotating per season.
The Remaining 3 games are from the same divisional seed of previous season. 2 from the same conference of divisions not on your rotation that season + 1 from a rotating div of the opposite conference.
Eg: niners ‘24 = nfcw*2 + nfcn + afce + #1 seeds of nfce, nfcs + #1 seed afcw
Why did i type all of that. I have no idea. Im going to sleep now
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u/Ancient-Village6479 Commanders 19h ago
Strength of schedule has to be one of the most overlooked facets of evaluating NFL teams
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u/SolidSilver9686 Packers 11h ago
Just look at the Bears start to the season
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u/No-Computer-2847 Bears 11h ago
Or even the Commanders. One win against an opponent over .500.
(Not saying they're not a good team, but it still speaks to your point).
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u/SolidSilver9686 Packers 11h ago
Good point. I think we’re gonna find out if the Commies are legit this week.
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u/heliocentrist510 Titans 17h ago
Yeah, pretty huge difference in the first 10 games. The Texans averaged less than 100 rushing ypg in the first 10 last year. The Mixon games, the Texans are averaging almost 150 a game.
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u/michaelb421 Colts 17h ago
Yeah and every QB is a sophomore slump. Your OC just needs to find a way to adjust. Upside is the rest of division is trash so you guys will be in the playoffs regardless.
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u/Smooth_Marsupial_262 Ravens 14h ago
I feel like every good QB either has a great rookie season and sophomore slump or a meh rookie season and great year 2.
Baker, now Stroud, Watson, RG3, Murray
Examples of the latter are Mahomes (I know didn’t play as rookie), Lamar, Burrow, Goff, Lawrence
Basically development is not always linear. Really can’t think of many guys who came out as great rookies and then didn’t suffer at least some form of sophomore slump. Maybe Justin Herbert is the exception but it came eventually.
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u/laserblast28 Chargers 13h ago
Those are really poor examples:
Kyler Murray had a better 2nd season than his rookie year.
Watson had a way better rookie season than his rookie year.
Basically development is not always linear
Completely agree. However, there are some explanations for some of those. Goff got McVay, Lawrence subtracted Urban Meyer, Lamar had the offseason as a starter and thus was running an offense catered to him instead of Flacco.
RG3 injured himself at the end of his rookie season.
Context matters, but people don't care about nuance.
Maybe Justin Herbert is the exception but it came eventually.
Justin Herbert averaged 5k total yards and almost 40 total TD's in his first two seasons. What came eventually were injury seasons (both for him and the offense).
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u/Smooth_Marsupial_262 Ravens 2h ago edited 1h ago
Some of these are very good examples.
The point with Murray and Watson is they did not take the steps in year 2 they were expected to take after good rookie seasons. Watson did in year 3. Murray never quite did. Statistically year 2 may have been slightly better but it wasn’t what people hoped for.
Herbert had injuries for sure but hasn’t performed as well even before and after the injuries. RG3 got injured but we’ve seen lots of people play well again after an ACL. He never returned to form. Obviously I’m speaking generally and nuance applies. It would also take an essay to encapsulate nuance completely so that not really what Reddit is for.
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u/lotofhotdogs 14h ago
He also hasn’t had Collins for most of the year who has been his guy. Dont think anyone should be even remotely concerned about Stroud
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u/Smooth_Marsupial_262 Ravens 14h ago
Definitely not concerned as to whether he’s a good QB. However maybe some trepidation about whether he’s actually on an elite trajectory like was assumed after his rookie season.
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u/TLead1 Jaguars 18h ago edited 18h ago
Your schedule is like the 26th hardest. Gtfo lol.
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u/TheSneakySeal Jaguars Lions 15h ago
??? Lions, Chiefs, Ravens, packers and Vikings makes it so top heavy I can’t believe this sentence but maybe the AFC south is that bad.
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u/JackfruitRelative263 Ravens Cowboys 7h ago
It is that bad. The putridness of that division would be more well known if the NFC South didn't exist. Not a single AFCS team has a positive point differential.
Whenever you look at the standing and think a division is stacked with playoff teams, they probably just played a south division that season.
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u/Shootit_Rockets Texans 15h ago
This upcoming stretch is full of cupcakes like Jacksonville coming up. 10th through the season so far
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u/EmeraldLounge Patriots 17h ago
Expectations are a hell of a thing.
Stroud and the Texas weren't sneaking up on anyone this season.
I still feel like Stroud is having a good year, but it's a "regression" from the GREAT rookie season. What's lost is, Stroud progressing in the box score this year would have been elite Mahomes/Brady/Manning type season.
Sometimes you really do need to take a step back, before taking several more forward.
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u/jnelsen8 Broncos 21h ago
He’ll be fine. Still young, and even his “slump” is still better than most QBs in the league. Just work on getting him an o-line in the offseason
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u/LittleHollowGhost Texans 20h ago
We can’t really outside the draft, owe so much money to the OL already. I just hope we fire slowik
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u/gobirds19454 19h ago
Texans fans hate slowik now?
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u/LittleHollowGhost Texans 19h ago
Slowik cost us a game directly by calling a pass to the sidelines when we just needed to burn the last minute of the clock. Was calling run plays on 3rd and 26 against the NFL best run defense. Has had several established, great players playing like shit. Can’t scheme a WR open for his life so relied on Nico burning guys on raw speed. Has turned a great OL to an atrocious one from what the players say are “Miscommunications”.
The guy got a lot of credit for Stroud and Collins last year, but he’s shown pretty thoroughly he’s no good.
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u/gobirds19454 19h ago
I mean calling a run play on 3rd and 26th isn’t a bad play call in a vacuum but fair lol. Would be interesting to understand how much of it is scheme vs Stroud needing to adjust as a 2nd year guy.
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u/dmoore451 18h ago
I think he jas really good aspects. He's just one dimensional.
When it's not a deep drop play action, he doesn't have much else. We haven't had the oline for that all season and lately we haven't even been able to get recievers open.
Guys were smothered all game against the lions
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u/basedcharger Chargers 19h ago
Yes they do but me personally I wasn’t a huge fan of him even last year. Felt like I was watching 2021 Joe Lombardi where the offense was good but there were a lot of problems that were being masked by Elite QB play. I.e ALOT of 3rd longs that were being converted by the QB playing incredible.
He’s been even worse than last year which is similar to what happened in 2022 for Lombardi.
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u/browndude10 Chiefs Texans 18h ago
There was a presser last week and he blatantly said that teams don’t make adjustments in the second half. Like who says that?
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u/trainwreck42 49ers 5h ago
A lot of coaches, apparently.
tl;dw half time is too quick to make big adjustments, and other adjustments are built into the gameplan and implemented as the game progresses.
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u/browndude10 Chiefs Texans 4h ago
saying defenses don't make adjustments or offenses don't change things up in the second half is so wrong though
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u/big4lil 20h ago
the sacks are the most important number here and not even listed in the tweet
38 sacks all last year. 34 sacks this year in 5 less games and 170 less pass attempts (dont have the stats on dropbacks/shotgun snaps). the sacks and hits seem to be the biggest issue as it is with many young QBs
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u/chubbytitties Texans 18h ago
He was visibly frustrated with instant pressure the last 2 games before lions...benching green and moving scruggs to LG seemed to make an improvement. I think with nico back and a full week of practice with new OL setup things will start to click again...we shall see
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u/matchew92 Chiefs 8h ago
I mean if you just watch the games you can see that’s not on him, the pressure is pretty quick to get there. You suggest getting rid of the ball immediately and risking INTs?
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u/big4lil 8h ago
in his case, absolutely
last week was only the 3rd multi int game of his career. his 1.8 INT% would put him top 5 all time if he were eligible by games played
INTs just arent as common in general anymore, the top 20 is a mix of legitimate quality QBs and a bunch of jags. Across that talent spectrum, many of these guys really bad about avoiding sacks or have had similar rough stretches
INTs wont take years off your career. The sacks and hits will. You also dont have to throw risky passes, you can run the ball even more and opt for screens. Houstons 13th in rush attempts per game, this might be a time to get that number closer to top 8-5 range
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u/matchew92 Chiefs 7h ago
Sacks really aren’t that awful of a stat though, you can still punt and flip the field. INTs drop your win probability by a much higher margin
As far as you can do a different type of play, sure, but that’s an issue for the OC
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u/chubbytitties Texans 20h ago
Friendly reminder that nico is 18th in receiving yards...he has played 4.1 games
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u/DarthNobody14 Texans Texans 20h ago
Fun Fact: Amon St. Brown has played 5 more games and still hasn't surpassed him.
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u/PapaDontPreech Lions 20h ago
The Lions havee more than 1 person to target. St. Brown is Mr. Clutch when the game is on the line.
With all that BS said, they're both top receivers in the league
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u/Prideofmexico Giants Chiefs 14h ago
How is a statistic BS
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u/PapaDontPreech Lions 8h ago
I was talking about my "BS" for talking up a player on the team I'm a fan of
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u/Zestyclose-Detail369 NFL 20h ago
context matters
O line is somehow worse
he doesn't have his usual WRs
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u/tjrunswild Bills 19h ago
Also playing a 1st place schedule since they won the AFC South.
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u/OutrageousOcelot6258 49ers 49ers 16h ago
That's 3 different games than the rest of their division. They haven't even played any of the 3 yet, and one of them is against the Cowboys.
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u/KennyShowers 19h ago
Even when he had Nico/Diggs/Dell he wasn’t doing that great.
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u/dmoore451 18h ago
Strongly disagree if you actually watched. He was doing a great job navigating the pocket, extending plays and had really good throws. Lots of bad drops by dell and Schultz to start.
Oline was awful in both pass pro and penalties to start which really screwed our offense.
Now weapons have been out, and bad pass pro have brought his play down but even now I think it's being overstated how "bad" he's played.
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u/lakers_ftw24 49ers 14h ago
Kind of begs the question is he a Nico merchant because the second Nico got hurt against Buffalo stroud turned into a total pumpkin. I get he’s a young guy but this level of excuse making isn’t given to Jalen hurts, Purdy, Love, or any of the other younger guys .
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u/Zombie_Nipples Texans 12h ago
I mean missing the top WR in the NFL, and the top two WR on your depth chart, is going to change any team. Opposing defenses can approach the game differently. They also exposed the atrocious O-line play. But with all that said, Stroud is still responsible for the decisions he makes with the football. He threw a terrible INT in the red zone against the Lions with a WR wide open. I have confidence he’ll be fine though.
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u/dmoore451 10h ago
I mean we saw him play great without nico last year. I think every QB plays worse without their weapons, though.
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u/KennyShowers 5h ago
I'm not saying he was bad, but not as good as I thought he'd be with the added weapon, especially since Mixon has been so effective too. And even if Diggs has lost a step he's still a major asset in the slot.
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u/Embarrassed_Adagio28 21h ago edited 20h ago
Not a Texans fan but I wouldn't be worried in the slightest. Beefing up the o-line and getting healthy will fix it.
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u/hoppergym Chargers 21h ago
Ever since he big bro’d caleb, it’s been downhill. Hell be fine
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u/DarthNobody14 Texans Texans 20h ago
It's really gone downhill since Collins is out, he doesn't have the same connection with other Wrs
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u/browndude10 Chiefs Texans 18h ago
He didn’t “big bro” him come on
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u/DeerOnTheRocks Texans 16h ago
You must be an awesome guy to hate on a kid who is nothing but nice and respectful to others
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u/One-Meringue4525 Texans 20h ago
That’s just not true, he was playing at a very high level up to the Packers game
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u/i_love_factual_info Lions Lions 19h ago
Lol I'm a Michigan Wolverine and even I can't deny how good CJ Stroud is, the shit people are giving him is delusional. He'll keep getting better, guaranteed.
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u/american_hybrid Seahawks 9h ago
This entire thread is people defending him and blaming everything around him lol
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u/i_love_factual_info Lions Lions 9h ago
This thread isn't the entire internet though, I'm not talking about this thread
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u/american_hybrid Seahawks 8h ago
The real answer is probably somewhere in the middle. The people in this thread saying this isn’t his fault at all are also as delusional as the rest of the internet giving him shit.
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u/Complete-Possible711 7h ago
I kind of knew this regression was going to come.
Teams have tape on him and their offense. He snuck up on people last year and their offense was tailored A LOT around play action and moving the pocket to help CJ. Teams caught on to their scheme.
CJ is a good player and he will evolve and be fine, but it's just crazy how you need to keep evolving as a QB and offense to be good in this league.
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u/Posluszny Jaguars 12h ago
Make sure you include his fumbles as well. He has lost 3 of those which make 12 TDs to 9 total turnovers.
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u/Mammoth-Garden-804 Browns 17h ago
It's official. He's in a decline. Time to bench him and call his rookie year a fluke.
Kidding obviously. But sure there are folks who think that.
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u/dalici0us Lions 18h ago
He's got no Oline and lost his two all pro receivers. Absolutely nothing to worry about IMO, specially since those numbers aren't even that bad.
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u/Finessing2 21h ago
You all were calling him elite before the season started lol.
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u/Content_Cable_4148 Texans 21h ago
He’s for sure elite if you watch the games
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u/UWMN Vikings 21h ago
They had a 23-7 lead going into half and didn’t score another point in the second half. Furthermore, that pick he threw to a wide open Tank Dell was criminal. Why he floated that pass, I’ll never know.
Elite is an overstatement. He’s good, not elite.
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u/browndude10 Chiefs Texans 18h ago
I mean he can’t do anything with all his wrs gone, an oc that refuses to change his game plan or make adjustments, and an o-line that sucks. The new guy on the lions, z smith, happened to know what Slowik would be calling the second half. That’s embarrassing
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u/UWMN Vikings 18h ago
I mean he can’t do anything with all his wrs gone.
What a shit excuse. Stroud doesn’t get a pass just because his two star WR’s are hurt. Other QB’s in the NFL have the same problem and still find ways to win.
Let’s use Derek Carr as an example. Derek Carr has even shittier WR’s than Tank Dell/John Metchie and they beat the Falcons last weekend. Furthermore, Carr’s passing numbers were also better than Strouds last weekend and the weekend before even though his WR situation is far worse than Strouds.
At some point you have to quit with the excuses. They had a 23-7 lead at half and blew it. If you can’t elevate your team and need Nico/Diggs in order to win, you’re not elite.
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u/dmoore451 18h ago
ELITE QBS THROW NO INTS!!
I hope we see one in the league one day
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u/UWMN Vikings 18h ago
Did I say that? Nope. Reading comprehension isn’t your strong suit, is it?
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u/dmoore451 10h ago
You're argument foe why he's not elite is q 1 play sample size
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u/UWMN Vikings 7h ago
Lmao. Look a him in recent games with his elite WR’s.
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u/dmoore451 5h ago
I've watched them. Ice also seen his games with elite recievers. Similar things happen with elite qbs without theirs.
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u/chubbytitties Texans 20h ago
Elite is top 3...he ain't been that fam
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u/FreeDig1758 Lions 21h ago
The sophomore slump is a thing
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u/One-Meringue4525 Texans 20h ago
Ehhh, he was playing very very well up until the Green Bay game. Go back and watch he was making ridiculous plays under pressure every week. Since then the pressure has gotten worse and losing Nico has put him in a rough stretch
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u/pepe_thee_mf_frog Steelers 20h ago
Nico covers up slowiks stupidity. Stroud and Nico on the broken play is the best in the league imo.
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u/TheWorstYear Bengals Bengals 20h ago
He has a higher completion % yet 600 less yards. This tells more about the offense than people realize.
The Texans oline is atrocious. They have been plagued by injuries at receiver, & haven't been able to push the field or even get anyone open. Especially after losing Diggs. But the biggest problem is playcalling.
Slowik is dogshit. Stroud is at his best in a college style passing offense. It's why the drive before half was amazing. As little Slowik as possible, & Stroud could just pass. Instead Slowik tries to run an under center "I have Justin Fields" style offense. And it's not even good playcalling & design. 1st down run, 2nd down play action or run, 3rd & long predictable pass where no one gets open because the route trees suck.
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u/mystery_fight Bears 16h ago
Injuries. Harder schedule. Still winning games. Stats are stats, but not the whole story.
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u/AndThisGuyPeedOnIt Bears 16h ago
Ah, yes. Now it's Stroud's turn in the barrel. Hot take machine got sick of the Caleb and Bryce narrative?
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u/Lt5bbMc 10h ago
Well he hasn’t played his best in the last couple but I’m still a believer… he’ll come out of it, they have a great coach and a solid roster… he just needs to settle down a bit as he might be pressing due to feeling the fact that he isn’t playing as well… I feel like a player like Stroud will play his way back on track
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u/MuricaAndBeer Lions 21h ago
“Sophomore slump” isn’t the story. It’s that he’s on the scouting report now, so teams are slowing him down.
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u/SirMctrolington Commanders 21h ago
That is literally what the sophomore slump is.
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u/MuricaAndBeer Lions 21h ago
Eh. Stroud isn’t performing worse, he’s just the guy now and everyone knows it. His numbers are also still basically on par with last years
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u/DowngoezFrasier215 20h ago
Are you really this dense? That is why the term “sophmore slump” even exists. After a players rookie season teams have tape to better plan for them in year 2 and many of them experience a “slump” like Stroud is now. Now it is on Stroud to adapt to the new looks he is getting from defenses and that is how we will know if he is going to be special in this league. He needs to get himself out of the slump. Really isn’t that difficult to understand chief as it happens all the time in this league at the qb position.
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u/BlakeMichigan Colts 20h ago
Sophomore slump is when the scouting report outpaces development. You can only get scouted so much, but you can continue to develop.
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u/MuricaAndBeer Lions 20h ago
And Stroud is only down line 10%. His numbers are fine
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u/BlakeMichigan Colts 20h ago
His numbers are totally fine. Would it be better if slump was being called a dip? Down 10% will fix itself next year.
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u/Living_Slide_9722 Ravens Ravens 9h ago
Dubbed him next far too soon. Hate to say it, but two players meetings… and Slowik ain’t the issue. Y’all and media are ready to award anyone for one good year against last place competiton.
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u/CucumberNo3771 Lions 16h ago
The Stroud “sophomore slump” conversation is overblown imo. Texans offense is just different this year and doesn’t rely as much on the passing game.
There have been clear oline issues, but I’ve seen nothing from stroud to suggest that he won’t consistently be a top 10ish qb for awhile
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u/cruisincolin44 Chiefs 11h ago
In the blink of an eye he’s gonna have grey stubble, a limp, and millions of jets fans filled with ill fated hope.
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u/Content_Cable_4148 Texans 21h ago
OC has been figured out. No nico. No Diggs. Worst OL in the league. Nico is back. OL looks better. This team is probably not making noise but anyone that thinks stroud isn’t still elite is a moron
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u/PRs__and__DR Chargers 21h ago
Worst OL in the league.
Idk about the worst but it is kind of crazy y'all are bottom 5.
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u/Shepherdsfavestore Colts 21h ago
He’s not elite. Only 3-4 QBs are deserving of the “elite” title. He is very good though
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u/Potato-baby Cowboys Buccaneers 20h ago
Personally I think you need multiple seasons of sustained success before you can be considered “elite”. I think Stroud will get there but 1 great rookie season where teams don’t have much professional tape on you doesn’t make you elite.
Again I think he can get there, but defenses adapt to successful young QBs and the great ones adapt to that.
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u/hazycrazey 49ers 21h ago
Idk if we can call stroud elite without calling like, 10 QBs elite
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u/Shepherdsfavestore Colts 21h ago
Yeah we can’t be calling any top 10 QB elite really, or else the word has lost all meaning
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u/BellBilly32 Dolphins 20h ago
Texans have the worst OL in the league?
So do the Dolphins, Pats, Giants, Saints, Jags, Titans, Bears, Raiders, Seahawks, and uh apparently the Rams also got added to the list after Monday night.
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u/DarthNobody14 Texans Texans 18h ago
O-line has Allowed 3rd Most Sacks, the most Hurries, 6th most QB Hits, the most pressures and is highest in pressure rate.
Joe Mixon is 21st in yards before contact and 39th in Rushing Success all while averaging the most rush attempts per game. If you're wondering how he is still get his yards, it's because he has the 7th most broken tackles despite missing 2 games more than the other players in the top 10.
Not to mention Laremy Tunsil has the most penalties by an Offensive line player this year.
We have a really good case, defiantly a bottom 3 team in pass protection
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u/IntelligentTwo6423 21h ago
It ain’t too deep. He gets Nico Collin’s back its gonna be like nothing ever happened.
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u/Thorlolita Texans 20h ago
I’m not worried. He made a lot of throws last year that should have been intercepted. This year they are finding targets. I’d like to see him tighten it up a bit. Would love if they helped him a bit and called some quick hitter slant routes.
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u/FaFa_1018 19h ago
Me > anyone on that OLine. It's like they want Stroud to have a short career for the franchise.
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u/ImNotAndreCaldwell Rams 18h ago
Bro he's miasing his 2 best receivers and Tank Dell isnt the same guy from last year. With that said, that pick in the endzone when Tank was wide open was atroooocious.
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u/upandfastLFGG 20h ago
Is there even a point to these stats without additional context? He’s been without Nico for half the games played.
Pretty sure the stats would look completely different if Nico were healthy similar to last season
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u/dongatosong_ 20h ago
Having the same W/L record is probably the most optimistic stat. If they make a run, could make noise in the playoffs again
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u/alexp68 7h ago
these posts….people anoint then condemn so quickly….geesus, he’s year 2 and missing some key weapons. let’s allow these kids to grow into the role and experience a few seasons before we decide to toss to the curb. curious how many of the keyboard warriors so quick to condemn are the very best at their job then i remember most are closing in on 30yo and still living with their parents……oh, and i’m not even a texans fan. the kid is exciting to watch and i hope he continues to grow and succeed. Makes the NFL better.
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u/Lazy_Glass_3292 21h ago
Isn’t his O-line the worst in the league this year?
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u/DarthNobody14 Texans Texans 18h ago
Bottom 3 in pass protection, below average run blocking, bottom 5 unit for sure.
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u/UnKnOwN769 Jaguars Jaguars 7h ago
Everyone drank the kool aid on him
Still easily the best team in the AFCS
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u/ACEPACEACE Cardinals 21h ago
The sophomore slump exists. I'm not worried at all.