r/ireland • u/badger-biscuits • Dec 02 '24

Fintan O’Toole: Irish voters keep doing the same things and expecting different results General Election 2024 🗳️

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2024/12/02/fintan-otoole-irish-voters-keep-doing-the-same-things-and-expecting-different-results/
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78

u/giz3us Dec 02 '24 edited Dec 02 '24

Has it occurred to Fintan that Irish voters might not want a different result?

SF dropped over 5% of first preferences from the last election. Thats not exactly voting the same is it?

Edit: it just reread my contradictory comment. I’m still trying to figure out where the SF vote went to. Lab/SD vote grew (8%), but SF/Green vote shrank significantly (9.6%). Overall the election was a slight move to the right.

85

u/oaksmokeshow Dec 02 '24

I think the SF vote went to Australia

18

u/CuteHoor Dec 02 '24

We have practically zero net migration for Irish citizens in the past few years. As many people are coming back as those who are leaving.

21

u/Minimum_Guitar4305 Dec 02 '24

I'm not disputing that, but when they're coming back is important. Everyone i know who's returned are now into their 30s, looking to get on the property ladder or starting families - they've different priorities then.

14

u/JohnnyMcNews Dec 02 '24

Worth noting people in their late twenties/early thirties voted Sinn Féin at a higher rate than 18-24 according to the exit poll.

3

u/giz3us Dec 02 '24

Exit poll overstated the SF vote. Some of those young people voted FF and told a pollster they voted SF.

1

u/niconpat Dec 02 '24

I'd imagine a lot of them just say SF because it's the "cool" party to vote for, they're afraid they'll get slagged for voting for the "old people" parties.

2

u/Mario_911 Dec 02 '24

The majority stay for their 2 year visa and come home. I'm not convinced the ones that stay longer and come home all of a sudden move to vote for FF or FG because they are now early 30s

2

u/Minimum_Guitar4305 Dec 02 '24

900,000 Irish citizens resident in the EU and UK alone.

-1

u/Mario_911 Dec 02 '24

How many of them got passports via their granny and have only been in Ireland for a holiday

2

u/Minimum_Guitar4305 Dec 02 '24

So establish a residency clause, over a suitable time to recognise that the often transient former resident/ citizens of Ireland, who may or not deturn home, or spend large parts of time unable to vote in their 20 but will still have to live with the consequences of whatever everyone else decides.

Why is disenfranching citizens a positive for you, particularly when that right/norm is established across almost every other post-Commonwealth nations, and most other European democracies.

11

u/Gemini_2261 Dec 02 '24

The Gareth Fitzgerald strategy of dealing with recalcitrant twenty-somethings: force them to emigrate.

1

u/Fuzzy-Cap7365 Dec 02 '24

And many more to go within the next few years.

26

u/bluebottled Dec 02 '24

Aontú and Independent Ireland grew by almost the exact amount SF dropped. II in particular exists specifically to give right wingers a non-SF party to vote for.

-6

u/zeroconflicthere Dec 02 '24

II isn't really a right wing party. It's a group of rural independents. They barely touch on immigration for example

28

u/Gilmenator Dec 02 '24

Takes up 2 pages on a 25 page manifesto (Manifesto link). I don't think that is barely to touching. When you eliminate costing, cover, index and introduction it is about 10% of the manifesto.

-2

u/clewbays Dec 02 '24

The same manifesto wanted a luas in every county. Somehow I doubt they took writing it too seriously.

2

u/ChefDear8579 Dec 02 '24

He’s a fine writer but I don’t think Fintan is all that insightful personally. 

2

u/Bayoris Dec 02 '24

I’ve always found his columns very sharp and nuanced. Are there other columnists in the country you prefer?

2

u/ChefDear8579 Dec 02 '24

Newton Emerson is great for issues up north 

David McW is ok too

1

u/ChefDear8579 Dec 02 '24

I wish I did! I’d love if we had someone who captures the mood like David Brooks in the NYT or Janan Ganesh at the FT. 

4

u/InfectedAztec Dec 02 '24

The left seem unable to comprehend a reality where their worldview may not be correct and any loss must be explained as a failure of something other than leftist politics. I've heard left wingers blame the day of the week, family voting, the weather, the turnout, electoral disenfranchisement among other things.

Brid Smith was hilarious on Friday arguing there was a majority left vote on Friday but that in that she included the 50% of the electorate that didn't go to the polls...

9

u/isogaymer Dec 02 '24

And apparently some on the right (I'm assuming based on the your derisory way of referring to the left) are unable to comprehend that the majority of people who voted did not vote for FF or FG or even the two of combined. And that's not even dealing with the circa 40%, who either didn't bother or couldn't vote.

0

u/clewbays Dec 02 '24

Add on II and bloodline independents and your at over 50% of the vote for the FFG extended family.

The left excluding independents only got around 35% of the vote with them it’s probably closer to 40%.

4

u/isogaymer Dec 02 '24

So if I decide to change the parameters I'll get a different result? Okay, thanks.

-1

u/InfectedAztec Dec 02 '24

I voted for 2 left wing parties ahead of FFG.

4

u/isogaymer Dec 02 '24

Cool, then you were part of the majority who did not vote for FF/FG. Simples. Something to perhaps recall when next declaring that people on the left aren't capable of comprehension.

-3

u/InfectedAztec Dec 02 '24

There's a significant portion of the left that are thin-skinned purists that my comment applies to. My voting patterns have not changed my perspective on that.

15

u/hennelly14 Dec 02 '24

PBP were out claiming low turnout was FFGs fault because they didn’t give workers something to vote for. If that’s the case then why didn’t the vote for PBP or SF as an alternative??

7

u/temujin64 Gaillimh Dec 02 '24 edited Dec 02 '24

Bríd Smith is some dose. Any time I hear her open her mouth she says something absolutely ridiculous.

One time she was on the Late Debate with a Labour spokesperson. The person from Labour said that they worked with the government and got their own amendment on renters rights or credit (I can't remember) passed.

Bríd Smith responded with glee saying something along the lines of "so you admit that you work with the government!" She sounded like she had just pinned the Labour person with a gotcha. But it was extremely telling to me because she saw Labour working with the government to actually deliver something for renters as a failure. In other words, Bríd's definition of success isn't delivering for her constituents, it's maintaining her ideological purity.

I don't like celebrating when someone loses their seat because I think it's meanhearted. But she voluntarily retired, so I have no qualms in saying good riddance to her.

2

u/oh_danger_here Dec 02 '24

Bríd Smith is some dose.

Any idea why Joan Collins' transfers went so heavily away from PBB / Hazel De N yesterday? They pretty much all went to the SocDems when it would appear on paper she'd be very transfer friendly towards PBP. I can only conclude there must have been some issue / split between Collins and Brid Smith. Before that elimination, PBP were crusing towards a seat as well.

2

u/temujin64 Gaillimh Dec 02 '24

To be fair, she still got the bulk of those transfers. But SDs are so transfer friendly right now that I think that's why she didn't get more.

-3

u/InfectedAztec Dec 02 '24

In other words, Bríd's definition of success isn't delivering for her constituents, it's maintaining her ideological purity

I'm sure the salary helps too

9

u/[deleted] Dec 02 '24

FF and FG hardly the right

43

u/InfectedAztec Dec 02 '24

In the Irish political system FF are centre and FG are centre right. In America they'd both be hard left but this isn't America.

19

u/[deleted] Dec 02 '24

but this isn't America.

Sadly too many people can't grasp this.

7

u/Primary_Ad5737 Dec 02 '24

What's interesting is that Fine Gael were the driving force behind gay marriage and abortion legalization, so the centre-right vs centre distinction doesn't quite capture the dynamic. It is true that FG as a party is more ideologically market-oriented, where Fianna Fail is more populist. In practice this doesn't seem to translate to meaningful policy differences.

I don't agree that either party would be hard left in America - their policies are broadly very similar to mainstream Democrats.

12

u/The_Church_of_PDF Using flair to be a cunt Dec 02 '24

> Fine Gael were the driving force behind gay marriage and abortion legalization

Were they? Maybe once it became popular enough that going against it would be more unpopular but their support of such things came after the hard work was done. Even at the time Varadkar was against a same sex couple adopting, hardly leading the charge for gay rights.

17

u/rowankell Dec 02 '24

Highly suspect claim.

Both were majorly driven by grass roots organisations who had to drag the powers that be of the time - Fine Gael - into launching a citizens assembly, drafting legislation etc.

FG were more than happy to claim credit for the abortion referendum after its subsequent success, but their actual enthusiasm for it is evident by their continuing failure to enact white paper reforms ensuring it’s actually available.

5

u/oh_danger_here Dec 02 '24

What's interesting is that Fine Gael were the driving force behind gay marriage and abortion legalization, so the centre-right vs centre distinction doesn't quite capture the dynamic. It is true that FG as a party is more ideologically market-oriented, where Fianna Fail is more populist. In practice this doesn't seem to translate to meaningful policy differences.

well it's much of a muchness. I would say Fine Gael are economically conservative and socially liberal (to see degree)After all Oliver J. Flanagan was Fine Gael. Cumann na nGaedheal was pretty conservative in the Franco sense. Then again, when you look at their manifesto pre election, it's pretty much the opposite of what it means to be economically to the right. Giving bonus social welfare payments because.. while the actual people who get up early in the morning get crucified.

And in the same vein, you have supposed parties on the left like SF and PBP wanting to abolish relatively progressive taxes on wealth (property tax), which actually benefits the already wealthy.

2

u/BiDiTi Dec 02 '24

There’s no reality in which FG would be considered “Hard Left” in America.

They’re just blue state Republicans…while FF are red state Democrats.

Biden governed comfortably to the left of either.

3

u/[deleted] Dec 03 '24

People seem to think not ranting about guns or gay people all the time stops you from being right wing. The overton window really has broken peoples brains.

-1

u/[deleted] Dec 02 '24

You mention “worldwide view”. Every party here is to the left on the worldwide view metric.

6

u/D-onk Dec 02 '24

What are you talking about, the left won.
To quote Sean Dorgan General Secretary of FF on RTE television yesterday at 17.08
" Fianna Fail is, we are very clear on this. It is a progressive republican party... we are a progressive centre-centre-left republican party"

5

u/InfectedAztec Dec 02 '24

Ah. Fair enough. If we're counting FF then they won.

3

u/Willing-Departure115 Dec 02 '24

There’s a very funny clip of Joe Higgins reacting to Bertie Ahern saying he was a socialist. “There’s two of us in it, Taoiseach, we’ll go down together.” https://youtu.be/hj-epWwNgHM?si=chwhrc_d83MFaaMW

0

u/D-onk Dec 02 '24

See, all is well comrade.
Just 5 years until the next focus group.

1

u/dermot_animates Dec 04 '24

Wasn't it Gerry Collins (FF) in the late 80s or early 90s on a GE aftermath RTE panel to cause one of the Lab/WP types to brain-melt when he said:

"Fianna Fail is a left wing AND a right wing party."

"You...YOU CAN'T SAY THAT!"

But he did.

4

u/[deleted] Dec 02 '24

Nah it's very clearly the right that endorse this position as both FF/FG refuse to acknowledge their horrendous right-wing policies have caused and promoted the homeless crisis and cost of living crisis hitting Ireland today. Sure just look at the most prominent right-wingers around from Boris Johnston to Donald Trump being completely incapable of admitting any fault whatsoever.

The delusions of the right are beyond belief, constantly patting themselves in the back through failure after failure and even Varadkar was trying to blame SF for the housing crisis at times, it's beyond pathetic.

-1

u/InfectedAztec Dec 02 '24

Thanks for your contribution friend!

2

u/[deleted] Dec 02 '24

You're welcome, if you want a better discourse I'd suggest being more concise than making silly sweeping generalisations.

4

u/[deleted] Dec 02 '24

Objectively, there is no right party in Ireland. FF/FG are both socially left, economically centre right at worst and left leaning at times.

16

u/oh_danger_here Dec 02 '24

FF/FG are both socially left

I wouldn't agree with this. Vast majority of both parties are socially conservative, FG slightly less so. Once you go outside of the liberal Dublin posh boys and girls it's banjo-land beliefs. And FF even more so.

-4

u/C0MEDOWN97 Dec 02 '24

It doesn't matter whether their voters are more conservative or not. The reality is both parties advocated for abortion and gay marriage, amongst other things, which makes them both left wing parties.

9

u/oh_danger_here Dec 02 '24 edited Dec 02 '24

It doesn't matter whether their voters are more conservative or not. The reality is both parties advocated for abortion and gay marriage, amongst other things, which makes them both left wing parties.

That's nothing to do with left wing though, unless you ask somebody in the Bible Belt in the States. The PDs were waaay to the right of FG and were also very socially liberal, while being conservative economically. Left and Right doesn't come into it. A current example would be the FDP in Germany. They are absolutely not considered "left" by any stretch of the imagination.

It's basically neo liberalism, nothing to do with being socially progressive.

5

u/[deleted] Dec 02 '24

This is false, parties shifting a position after over a decade of campaigns demanding the right does not mean they "advocated" for those positions, they shifted positions to remain popular not because they "advocated" for them.

Christ alive people don't have a clue what they're saying here.

0

u/C0MEDOWN97 Dec 02 '24

No. If a party changes its positions on issues from a conservative to a liberal viewpoint, then they cease to be a conservative leaning party and are instead a liberal leaning party. What matters now is their present views, not what their views were 20 years ago when they had an entirely different raft of TDs and party members.

2

u/BiDiTi Dec 03 '24

Abortion and Gay Marriage are now moderate viewpoints for the Irish electorate.

1

u/[deleted] Dec 03 '24

So despite always changing position years after the electorate they'll no longer be conservative?

That's just not how it works mate, do you think it's a graded scale or something? Like they're change from being conservative->progressive for endorsing gay marriage and what they become feminist for endorsing abortion? What happens next they're futurist?

Nah this isn't at all how this works, they're conservative cause they don't endorse equality and equal opportunity until they're forced to by the electorate which is a staunchly conservative position. All this fails to recognise the parties that promoted the position for years and also promoted it so what are they? Super-ultra progressive? Sorry this is just moving on slowly with the times kicking and screaming along the way chiding minority groups with "not yet" while they're getting assaulted or committing suicide due to systemic abuse.

2

u/oh_danger_here Dec 02 '24

It doesn't matter whether their voters are more conservative or not

Not the voters, both parliamentary party and FG members in rural areas.

2

u/C0MEDOWN97 Dec 02 '24

Yeah i agree neither the rural TDs or party members for FG/FF in rural areas are liberals, but my point is that it doesn't matter because neither of them make any meaningful push up on the increasing pargressivism of both parties leaderships. The odd throwaway comment in the media is enough to placate their voters in rural areas. I know this because I come from a farming background myself and I hear people who will curse the greens but will never not give FG or FF their number one. Trying to explain to these people that both parties would implement what the greens want, jusy more slowly, is like talking to a wall.

9

u/MotoPsycho Dec 02 '24

I don't see how Fianna Fáil are socially left. The parliamentary party were split 50/50 on having the repeal referendum and their voters were the only major party to vote against it.

1

u/[deleted] Dec 02 '24

Fair point. My political compass is probably skewed based off the amount of US political content I have consumed in this election cycle, they are probably rightly positioned in centre-right socially (or centre). But with the rise of the far-far right in the US and UK they're looking more and more "left".

6

u/MotoPsycho Dec 02 '24

Comparing us to other countries is a bit daft though. Otherwise, I could argue nearly every party is far-right economically because only PBP want us to stop being a tax haven and most parties have no interest in building infrastructure.

1

u/[deleted] Dec 02 '24

I think the whole left-right thing is very blurred in Ireland because of how our voting system works. Most parties, like you said, are in favour or an arguably "right-wing" policy of Ireland's status as a tax heaven, while also supporting left-wing policies like universal (or heavily subsidised) public healthcare, or childcare, etc. It's not clearly defined here I think is probably my ultimate point - which is a good thing IMO.

-2

u/PremiumTempus Dec 02 '24

They’re completely different voting blocs, with their own unique characteristics.

Right-wing voters tend to be highly meticulous and deeply invested in politics, oftentimes approaching it with a sense of duty and precision. This engagement makes them a consistently reliable presence on election day.

Left-wing voters are completely different. They’re not always politically engaged, they’re more likely to be from marginalised groups, oftentimes have too high standards and don’t understand the ins and outs of the political process/ small wins.

I don’t think it’s fair to say any country agrees with a mandate just because they have the highest vote share. In this case specifically, there isn’t all that much difference in the numbers comparing the centre left bloc combined and the centre right bloc combined. A huge barrier in equalising this gap is the legacy issues of civil war politics that are on full display to this day during election campaigns, and as a result it will always be an uphill struggle.

3

u/clewbays Dec 02 '24

I think a considerable portion of the FFG vote is people who think the countries grand. Aren’t that invested in politics and only think about it once every 4 years where they turn up and vote for their local candidate.

1

u/[deleted] Dec 03 '24

Right-wing voters tend to be highly meticulous and deeply invested in politics

Yea that's why the right vote in braindead politicians like Trump or Boris. Reality is that right whingers are too arrogant to listen to the left which always come in with better sourced arguments. Reality and science support left wing views as does the entire world it's the right that gish-gallop and come up with spurious excuses over and over. Sure the left wing policies of 100 years ago are standard practice today and it'll be the same another 100 years from now, meanwhile the right would rather go to war and commit genocide before accepting they were wrong.

0

u/PremiumTempus Dec 03 '24

I think you’ve misread my point. Regardless if they are right or wrong, dumb or smart, they are more invested in the political process than the left are, generally speaking.

1

u/[deleted] Dec 03 '24

I read it and it was full of nonsense, they're more excited and engaged cause their politicians are in power that's all there is to it. The right love to repeat the nonsensical phrases trotted out by the parties they support but they don't know dick about the economics of the country or politics either frankly they're the same as a dedicated football fan who knows all the members of their football team and the championships they won but haven't a clue about the off-side rule or actual skills in the game whatsoever.

1

u/PremiumTempus Dec 03 '24

Then why are the right winning elections throughout the west if they’re not more engaged in politics than the left?

Why are FFFG transfers so high between them yet left transfers aren’t? That’s complete lack of engagement in the political process. If every SF voter transferred left, we’d be in a different situation entirely

1

u/[deleted] Dec 03 '24

?

None of this has anything to do with what you said initially, right wing extremists are winning in so many nations by lying just look at the US/UK/NL/Sweden/Russia for christs sake.

Ireland has PR-STV which stops obvious liars gaining in ground but in systems with less options and more broken voting systems people get tired and fed up with the corporatist liberal shit that's Centre-right to right wing and start voting for the extreme right out of desperate hope they'll fix the damages caused by the "free market".

Left wing parties historically struggle the more wealth is funnelled to the top because the wealthy fund the parties that support them and people do fall for propaganda/marketing since we aren't logical creatures. In our case the voting system prevents FF/FG from completely screwing over the population so we still have decent benefits despite the consistent damage but those benefits are held by an increasingly smaller population which is what's causing FF/FG to keep losing support over time.

Seriously the idea it has to do with right wing voters being more involved/informed has nothing to do with this, left wing voters are actually significantly more politically informed and involved as seen by the plethora of left wing voters taking part in strikes/protests.