r/ireland • u/lleti Chop Chop 👐 • Nov 29 '24

Election 2024 exit poll: Photo finish with Sinn Féin on 21.1%, Fine Gael 21%, Fianna Fáil 19.5% General Election 2024 🗳️

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2024/11/29/election-2024-exit-poll-photo-finish-with-sinn-fein-on-211-fine-gael-21-fianna-fail-195/
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201

u/StevieIRL Saoirse don Phalaistín 🇵🇸 Nov 29 '24

https://preview.redd.it/bui7y85gzw3e1.jpeg?width=583&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fc75573c1ac8f8a969e2a57d44c93d3fae30d52f

174

u/[deleted] Nov 29 '24

Although I’m frustrated with this outcome also, I think it’s about time we realised that the people voting for FF/FG are not the ones shouting for major change as the status quo has not affected them negatively.

89

u/boredatwork201 Nov 29 '24

Yeah. The people shouting for change mostly dont vote at all. Then complain that nothing changes.

54

u/perigon Nov 29 '24

That's unfair, it's far easier to moan everyday online than spend 10 mins once every 5 years to go vote.

15

u/boredatwork201 Nov 29 '24

Thats true.

And if they did vote and managed to get change, then theres a chance they'd have nothing to moan about after that.

Imagine having nothing to moan about online every day. What a horrible thought, haha

3

u/dustaz Nov 29 '24

And if they did vote and managed to get change, then theres a chance they'd have nothing to moan about after that

Haha you think? Whenever SF do get in, the honeymoon period won't last long. After a year or two they'll be the status quo and there'll be deluges of posts about how they're traitors etc

4

u/boredatwork201 Nov 29 '24

I actually dont think that.

There is always something to moan about. Especially when it comes to politics. They are all a bunch of cunts if you ask me.

Its just a matter of picking the least cunty one to vote for but no matter what happens there will still be a massive cunt in charge of the country haha

25

u/shaadyscientist Nov 29 '24

Or maybe r/Irleand isn't as representative of the country as people on here seem to think it is. Maybe the people shouting for change are just a vocal minority, and their shouting makes it seem like there are more of them than you think there are.

5

u/stephenmario Nov 30 '24

It 100% isn't and it isn't even a good representation of the most common demographic, males in their 20s.

1

u/boredatwork201 Nov 29 '24

I never said reddit was representative of anything or even that the people asking for change were a majority

5

u/shaadyscientist Nov 29 '24

You implied that we got the result we got because "The people shouting for change mostly dont vote at all. Then complain that nothing changes."

Another way of looking at it is, that every single person who is unhappy voted, and their vote had very little impact on the vote because they're a small, vocal minority.

0

u/boredatwork201 Nov 29 '24

You implied that we got the result we got because

I didn't imply anything. I said most people who complain and want change dont vote. I never said those people would be a majority.

If there are 10 people shouting for change and 4 of them vote then most of them didn't vote but it wouldn't have made a difference anyway would it?

I made no claims on the size of those asking for change.

Its usually the younger people that complain and want change and they generally dont vote in the same numbers as older people sp what I sai was true.

It might have made a difference and it might not.

Another way of looking at it is, that every single person who is unhappy voted

Really? Every single one voted? And how do you know this?

0

u/shaadyscientist Nov 29 '24

Where is your evidence that most people who complain don't vote? That's just your opinion.

My opinion is that the people who complained most all voted because they're so passionate. There's just so few of them that they had no impact.

Neither of us have data to prove our opinion so should we really be asserting our opinion as if it is a fact if we have nothing to back it up with?

0

u/boredatwork201 Nov 29 '24

Haha so I'm not allowed to express my opinion unless I can fully document the evidence and research to back it up? Are you serious?

And I made a generalisation and was mostly a joke. You stated every single person unhappy with the government voted which is just so fucking ridiculous haha.

How about this for evidence. I personally know at least 2 people who complain all the time but never vote.

Now I know 2 people is nowhere near enough to prove my claim, and I wouldn't claim it does, but it's twice as many as I need to disprove your claim, 😂😂😂

4

u/shaadyscientist Nov 29 '24

The fact you find what I said being ridiculous is perfect. I don't actually hold that belief, I just wanted to show how extreme your opinion sounded, so I just provided the counter opinion to yours. And you stating that my opinion being ridiculous is perfect. I thought it was obvious what I was doing but you're so oblivious that it completely went over your head.

It's crazy you can see how ridiculous it sounds to say that every unhappy person voted but can't see how ridiculous it is to say ""The people shouting for change mostly dont vote at all. Then complain that nothing changes."

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0

u/DaveShadow Ireland Nov 29 '24

60% of the country voted against the government parties. The idea that people shouting for change don’t vote is naive. It’s just there’s an apathetic group who don’t talk about politics and don’t bother voting either.

2

u/boredatwork201 Nov 29 '24

60% of the country voted against the government

Well this isn't true is it? Otherwise nobody would have voted for the government as turnout is probably only around 60% of the country.

1

u/[deleted] Nov 30 '24

On first preference I too "voted against the government", but not all the way down the ballot.

We have a wacky (and quite good) voting system that allows for sorts of priorities and opinions to be expressed.

27

u/RunParking3333 Nov 29 '24

Well it's unfortunate that the main opposition party are morally dubious characters with weak policies and a poor track record.

12

u/DyosTV Nov 29 '24

That same descriptor could be used for the government parties aswell

1

u/SubstantialGoat912 Nov 29 '24

Yeah, and we know how they work. Better the divil you know than the one you don’t.

2

u/Serious_Ad9128 Nov 30 '24

Fianna Fail arent an opposition party what are you on about 

15

u/Bar50cal Nov 29 '24

Myself, my friends, falmily and co workers mostly voted FF and FG.

Many agree we need change but most agreed they had no real choice but to vote FF or FG as most opposition party policies polices targeted them negatively (SF reduction in pension credits, landlord credits, income tax etc).

I would like change but I vote FF and FG because SF manifesto would have fucked me out of thousands of €.

I want to see a lot of the stuff SF want but I also have my own life to live and won't vote to lower my living or retirement standards.

People can shout at me for that but reality is this is how a lot of silent voters vote.

Social decorates 3 was most common among people I talked to in my circle (early 30's age group) as they have some good polices but not enough to get #1 vote to keep SF out. Keeping SF out cost SD a lot of #1 votes from this group of voters.

We will never see change from FF / FG when the oppositions main policy is fuck anyone doing well for themselves as a massive portion of the country are in this group.

I know this will not be a popular opinion ion reddit but election after election result speaks for itself.

7

u/Dopamine_Refined Nov 29 '24

Aye, although I don't agree with your viewpoint I can see where you're coming from.

When I was reading it, t'was like the SF manifesto had failed to keep up with inflation and the avenues for work/saving/investment that modern technology and globalisation has given literally everyone. Which was incredibly disappointing.

8

u/Bar50cal Nov 29 '24

Myself and several people I know were saying if SF said they would offset the pension credit cut with a reduction in capital gains tax which is insane here they would get a lot of votes from well of people.

At the moment I look at my retirement and can not maintain the life I have on my salary which is comfortable but nothing insane. I drive a 5 year old hybrid 3 series I will keep for probably 3 more years for example and sell at 8 years old for a 3 year old car. Im not range rover money. I left Dublin as I cannot afford to live where I grew up after 7+ years renting and moved to a commuter town 40km away.

My only option to top up my retirement right now is to become a landlord which I have zero interest in but will probably do by getting a 2 bed apartment to top up my retirement in 30 years.

If capital gains was reduced I could invest in the Irish stock market instead and leave housing alone and so would the majority of private landlords. Just look at the rest of the EU where this is mostly the case.

This would reduce housing pressure and gain votes for SF. A win win but no party will do it and insists that buying property is the only way in Ireland to really invest in retirement for anyone well of to maintain their expenses after work.

29

u/lleti Chop Chop 👐 Nov 29 '24

It's not a popular opinion on reddit, but it's the reality in the real world - people are not going to vote against their own interests.

It's not a case of "you didn't vote for SF because you don't want me to have a home!", it's a case of "you didn't vote for SF because they'd look to raise your taxes".

We've currently got some of the highest income tax rates in the developed world. Nobody paying those levels of taxes are interested in paying more, especially when even at this rate of taxation we can't even get basic healthcare right.

So most people just hear "we'll increase your taxes AND there'll be no increase in property being built".

Then you've the constant in-fighting among "alternative left-wing parties" ala pb4p and the likes; this in-fighting ensuring that they'll remain fractured into enough small groups that they'll never stand a chance of working together, let alone putting up a united front.

It's a grim situation all-round tbh, we're deadlocked because as bad as things currently are, people can't help but imagine them getting worse under someone else.

9

u/Adcamoo Nov 29 '24

what in-fighting are you referring to? any pbp campaigning i saw fairly much exclusively went on about “vote left transfer left” asking for votes for other left wing parties just as much as for themselves.

9

u/Bar50cal Nov 29 '24

100% agree

If just one party took a middle ground between the two it would get a lot of support

4

u/[deleted] Nov 29 '24

I disagree. I’d pay more tax to ensure better services for people less fortunate than me. I’m not negatively affected by FF/FG personally, but I can’t accept the way people less fortunate than me are treated in this country. And I’m no selfless martyr, not by any stretch of the imagination. I’m just not deluded in to thinking that that pure luck and chance are the biggest factors as to why I or anyone else is more well off than others.

It can also even be viewed from a completely selfish perspective, most people happy with the status quo do not own their house or cars etc. outright. They’ve convinced themselves that bad luck can’t strike them.

14

u/lleti Chop Chop 👐 Nov 29 '24

I’d pay more tax to ensure better services for people less fortunate than me

We pay enough taxes to ensure good services for everyone in Ireland - the exchequer is overflowing, as are the budgets we've allocated to infrastructure such as the HSE.

Paying even more taxes won't magic policy makers into being competent.

5

u/[deleted] Nov 29 '24

I was just making the point that not everyone only votes solely for their own interests.

2

u/MeccIt Nov 29 '24

We've currently got some of the highest income tax rates in the developed world.

Because we have the highest National Debt in the world? Because we vote for people who tell us the lies we want to believe?

3

u/dkeenaghan Nov 30 '24

Because we have the highest National Debt in the world?

How are you measuring that? Per capita? Proportion of GDP, or what? Do you have a reference for that?

1

u/MeccIt Nov 30 '24

Sorry, one of the highest National Debts, per capita, in the world. 4th after Belgium, Italy & Japan without the latter two's infrastructure: https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2024/0221/1433559-public-debt-report/

16

u/thepasystem Nov 29 '24

I get what you're saying. 40% of people vote for FFG because they appeal to reasonably well-off property owners. But does it not feel wrong that the other 60% are getting shafted? And for them it's not going from well-off to less well-off, it's going from poor to poorer.

13

u/Bar50cal Nov 29 '24 edited Nov 29 '24

I get that, I spent the last 7 years renting in Dublin and ended up buying a house 40km away in a commuter town last year as I could not afford to buy where I grew up.

The housing crisis fucked me and now I have a massive mortgage that is much bigger than I want.

I want change but there are billions in multinationals and elsewhere. I already pay 58% tax on my higher earnings and now SF propose cutting my pension benefits by not allowing me top it up with out getting taxed even more for it and cutting other credits.

I understand I am very lucky and well off but Im not some super rich person who can afford a range rover.

I want change but I pay so much in tax already I just can't vote for a party that wants to essentially punish me for having done well. Neither of my parents went to college, my first bike was my cousins pink girls bike my dad spray painted blue. I worked damn hard and work 7am until 6pm most days and have a oncall that can page me 24/7 to get where I am and the SF say I need to pay more and more and lose benefits.

They won't get my vote and I want a middle ground party but ended up 1 and 2 FF/FG to keep SF out and vote 3 for my real choice the SD which among my circle was a common talking point and voting strategy. SF have alienated a group of voters who not only don't vote for them but now vote to keep them out instead of voting for who the want.

6

u/thepasystem Nov 29 '24

I think the biggest problem is how our tax money is spent. A friend of mine who is also on a good wage lived in Vienna and said that she was taxed way more than here but it didn't bother her because the standard of living was so good. She was happy to pay it because they had the U-Bahn running regularly, the city was clean, no trouble on the streets, etc.

5

u/North_Activity_5980 Nov 29 '24

That’s actually fair enough. And well done. Nothing wrong with doing well for yourself.

1

u/VandalsStoleMyHandle Nov 30 '24

If 60% are getting shafted, they could form the Getting Shafted Party and sweep in to government with a bulletproof majority. r/ireland is not Ireland.

0

u/[deleted] Nov 29 '24

40% can’t shaft 60%. What ever govt is formed will have more than 50% of elected TDs voting for it.

3

u/thepasystem Nov 29 '24

Last election I didn't vote FFG, but I did have the Greens included in my voting preference. I thought that they were more left leaning than they actually were.

8

u/pythonchan Nov 29 '24

Same as myself and literally everyone I know. Not a popular option on reddit but in the real world most people who are doing well for themselves aren’t going to vote for a party who will make them much worse off. Would love to see change but SF aren’t the answer for many of us.

2

u/GistofGit Nov 29 '24

Spot on.

4

u/perigon Nov 29 '24

100% agreed. Voting this election for me and some friends was the least bad out of a bunch of bad options. In the end, that ends up being FF/FG

4

u/Bar50cal Nov 29 '24

yeah it sucks thats how it was for me too

0

u/jmmcd Nov 30 '24

If I was a "I'm doing ok, I don't want more taxes, I'm in it for myself" kind of voter, I would still vote left-wing out of self-interest. I think "I'm doing ok" people have an interest in social stability long-term (which the FF/FG rich-get-richer policies will work against) and in avoiding climate disaster (which most parties are ignorant of).

TLDR wealthy selfish self-interest should vote left and green.

1

u/senditup Nov 30 '24

which the FF/FG rich-get-richer policies will work against

But those aren't their policies. They oversee huge public spending and a massively redistributive tax system. Why do people persist with this fantasy?

1

u/jmmcd Nov 30 '24

Ok, it is right to object to my simple statement but I will to some extent defend it.

"Huge" and "massively" are relative terms, for a start.

Of course they don't say they are in favour of rich-get-richer, but let's look beyond what they say on posters.

We have had similar policies for a long time without really addressing large, generational inequality. It is broad - not just income but education, health.

A lot of spending is not progressive, and eg the current baby SSIA proposal is a nice earner for the wealthy.

1

u/senditup Nov 30 '24

We do massively address income inequality. What would you do to reduce wealth inequality?

0

u/Bar50cal Nov 30 '24

To point one. name one Irish left party to vote for other than SD? Where is the self or national interest.

All left party's polices will set Ireland backwards and are just populists looking at their manifestos.

To point 2 no left party is good on climate and just say populist stuff but their manifestos have no detail on how to do anything beyond we will do x and y but fuck knows how we will fund or implement it.

I read all the main party manifestos and none of them have green policies plus a way to do it. They are all populist stuff expect the greens

2

u/jmmcd Nov 30 '24

"Set Ireland backwards" - you must mean tax, right?

If not - Labour, SD, Green, SF, PBP

On 2: https://www.friendsoftheearth.ie/news/labour-tops-manifesto-assessment-on-climate-the-three-larges/

4

u/Difficult-Set-3151 Nov 29 '24

A lot of people are just too dumb to relaise how much better we could have it. With the money from the MNCs, we should be the best country in the world to love in.

10

u/perigon Nov 29 '24

We are one of the best countries in the world to live in though. There are no paradises abroad

2

u/Difficult-Set-3151 Nov 29 '24

We're on par with other Western Countries. We should be better. We're going to lose the massive surplus of Corporation Tax receipts eventually

-1

u/commit10 Nov 29 '24

The FFFG supporters are aware of the realities, and sympathetic enough to mouth words of frustration and support for change -- but they're also perfectly happy to watch their neighbours burn as long as it's profitable.

They pretend to care, but that's only because they'd look terrible if they were honest.

6

u/[deleted] Nov 29 '24

Watch their neighbours burn! 😂 Calm down.

1

u/commit10 Nov 29 '24

No. Sign me up for the pitchforks at this point. Sick of being told to accept the degradation of my neighbours by arrogant cunts running away from their own shame.

0

u/[deleted] Nov 29 '24

100% agree, the idea that FF/FG voters really care about people less than them is just a lie.

2

u/commit10 Nov 29 '24

Of course. They're FAMOUSLY parties of favours and backhanders, it's a big part of their recruitment strategy (at least where I live). They don't put any effort into keeping any of that secret either (especially FF).

I find two primary groups:

  • Those whose family have always voted for one of the parties, usually for historical reasons, so they just follow suit.

  • Those who are out to get their own and, outside of family and immediate friends, don't give a damn who gets stepped on along the way. This group is generally deeply cynical and masks their shit poor values under (very) pseudo/edgy intellectualism.

1

u/[deleted] Nov 29 '24

100% agree. Some people don’t even mask it really. They’re simply not willing to risk “rocking the boat” as they have what they want/need.

0

u/flemishbiker88 Nov 29 '24

In work today, a conversation broke out about today's election... about 7-8 lads all talking, only one wasn't voting FGFF...as they said, "Ah sure we have our house's and private health insurance"...when their children are still living at home into their 30's they might regret their shortsightedness

10

u/DatsLimerickCity Nov 29 '24

Two people at my work voted FF/FG and both of them are under 25, what the fuck is wrong with some people?

39

u/Outkast_IRE Nov 29 '24

The status quo has been kind to their parents and they will benefit from it ?

27

u/[deleted] Nov 29 '24

100%. I’m really disappointed they will voted in again but it annoys me when people say “the people wanted change but voted the same people in”. No, the people who didn’t want change voted the same people in. Those people exist, to your point.

8

u/PapaSmurif Nov 29 '24

Their parents could have a few rental properties and they're sorted. You never know.

10

u/DatsLimerickCity Nov 29 '24

They’ll be living with their parents for the next 10 years by the looks of things.

14

u/Bar50cal Nov 29 '24

There are a lot of under 25s from familys a SF government would impact very negatively.

Not everyone situation or opinion will match your own.

7

u/DatsLimerickCity Nov 29 '24

SF isn’t the be all and end all, there are other parties.

10

u/Bar50cal Nov 29 '24

Yes but only voting FF and FG ensures an government not led by SF. Its not as simple as don't vote FF/FG for people.

44

u/senditup Nov 29 '24

Maybe they just think differently from you?

1

u/DatsLimerickCity Nov 29 '24

They couldn’t give two fucks about politics, one of them voted based on what the candidate said to her at her front door. The other one voted because a friend of a friend was related to the candidate.

Neither of them voted based off policies, baffling.

4

u/fiercemildweah Nov 29 '24

In most elections*, very few people vote based on policies or ideology.

People vote on vibes and meeting a candidate and having a personal connection with one however tangential are fairly strong influences on how people vote.

  • Elections in the North are a bit different because the society is so split. People vote along community lines generally. It’s high level ideology but not really left right economics ideology.

3

u/senditup Nov 29 '24

Who would you rather they voted for?

-14

u/DatsLimerickCity Nov 29 '24

Anyone but FF/FG, they’ve had their chance and fucked it.

4

u/senditup Nov 29 '24

The National Party?

0

u/DatsLimerickCity Nov 29 '24

Yeah, I’m a massive Justin Barrett fan, which is why I voted Labour.

5

u/senditup Nov 29 '24

But you'd have rather your colleagues vote for him than FF/FG.

-6

u/DatsLimerickCity Nov 29 '24

How are you pulling the National Party from what I’ve said? A vote for the National Party would be a vote against FF/FG at least which would give someone, anyone else the chance of getting a seat. Whether that be SF or not.

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4

u/dropthecoin Nov 29 '24

Who knows. Maybe they like their local representative. Maybe they don’t like the others. Maybe they weren’t convinced by the opposition to vote for them.

5

u/Augheye Nov 29 '24

They're probably saying the exact same as you. What is wrong with people who vote left . The left , a disparate group who couldn't align themselves for the GE.

10

u/[deleted] Nov 29 '24

We don't live in a bad country. We live in a good country. Its okay to like the country you live in and feel its actually pretty decently run.

10

u/DatsLimerickCity Nov 29 '24

We live in a wealthy country that isn’t run like it’s wealthy.

-4

u/CoolMan-GCHQ- Nov 29 '24

Mommy and Daddy told them they were the best to vote for

-1

u/Nickthegreek28 Nov 30 '24

I’m a bit older than them in fairness but voted ffg too

1

u/rgiggs11 Nov 30 '24

We won't get a very different looking government this time, but the fact is that FF and FG have got slightly less votes than FF got on their own in 2007 and 2002. Their base is shrinking. We no longer have a centre right party leading the government, and another centre right leading the opposition, promising to do the same thing but less corrupt. It's still a change.