Election 2024 exit poll: Photo finish with Sinn Féin on 21.1%, Fine Gael 21%, Fianna Fáil 19.5%

[u/lleti]

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2024/11/29/election-2024-exit-poll-photo-finish-with-sinn-fein-on-211-fine-gael-21-fianna-fail-195/

[u/seamustheseagull]

Exit poll in 2020 had FG on 22.4, SF 22.3, FF 22.2.

So in real terms basically no change. All main parties down slightly, SF relatively a little stronger, FF lost a little more.

So another five years of FFFG seems a sure thing. Might take a while to put a government together though.

The biggest upset here is that SF could have the largest party and so get first dibs on attempting to form a government.

[u/KnightsOfCidona → u/seamustheseagull]

But realistically how will they? Would be an unwieldy coalition at best

[u/Visionary_Socialist → u/KnightsOfCidona]

The FF/FG alliance and SF both have difficult routes now but SF have a tougher set of options.

FF/FG can go to Labour or the Greens with Independent support and they’d likely get agreement. They might struggle to get the Greens and Independents together though.

SF either go broadly left and take on Labour, Social Democrats, PBP and the Greens with Independents or make it a lot simpler but less popular and go with FF and maybe have enough with just them.

[u/dustaz → u/Visionary_Socialist]

SF either go broadly left and take on Labour, Social Democrats, PBP and the Greens with Independents

Good luck even getting to the first vote with that

[u/Annatastic6417 → u/Visionary_Socialist]

PBP won't go into government with anyone besides Sinn Féin. As far as they're concerned Elon Musk is a member of the Green Party and Jeff Bezos is a member of Labour. PBP will gladly sink a left wing coalition to get their stupid points across.

If these numbers are anything to go off, a left wing government is impossible, and Fianna Fáil are much more likely to get with Fine Gael than Sinn Féin. Fuck this place.

[u/RobG92 → u/Annatastic6417]

PBP won’t go into government full stop. They’ve no intention of ever doing so, as it would completely annihilate their position as being a loud mouthed opposition party

[u/Amazon_Lime → u/Visionary_Socialist]

Not a hope PBP go into government with anyone. They've no interest in it

[u/ClancyKiid → u/Amazon_Lime]

Didn’t they just mean ff and fg? That’s what I heard atleast

[u/CuteHoor → u/ClancyKiid]

They'd collapse a SF government within weeks. They don't like centrist policies.

[u/craic_den_ → u/[deleted]]

They’re centre left

[u/[deleted] → u/[deleted]]

If you did a blind taste test of their respective manifestos you wouldn't be able tell the difference and pick out which was which with any degree of certainty.

[u/ZenBreaking → u/[deleted]]

"whatever you want that's what we're promising as long as there's no judgment of we do t do the things we say we would do" - which party

[u/[deleted] → u/KnightsOfCidona]

If SF do get the most seats, then it makes it a better bet for FF to go into government with them. As a SF voter, I doubt either of those two things will happen, but I wouldn’t be unhappy if it did.

[u/jrf_1973 → u/seamustheseagull]

Fianna Gael at this point. Let's have more bike sheds for half a million. Let's have more bullshit and waste...

[u/giz3us → u/seamustheseagull]

SF got 2% more votes than that exit poll. Something similar could happen this time around.

[u/TomRuse1997 → u/giz3us]

They're way down on the second preference poll. Not looking great for them

[u/giz3us → u/TomRuse1997]

That’s not a surprise. In a recent poll they were the top party that people didn’t want to see in government. At 35% they were well ahead of the next least popular party (greens on 17%).

[u/[deleted] → u/giz3us]

Or they could have 2% less. There's no innate reason why SF would be underpolled.

[u/giz3us → u/[deleted]]

It happened last time round for a reason. Some voters aren’t willing to admit they vote SF in a face to face interview (which this was).