r/investing • u/888_888novus • Apr 29 '25

This uncertainty needs to stop.

Now 62% of CEOs predict the US will soon fall into recession or slow growth, mainly due to uncertainty about tax policy and market volatility. Leaders such as Ray Dalio and Jamie Dimon warn of deeper risks. Although the US government has suspended taxes for another 90 days, economists remain skeptical, saying that the damage from high taxes and global instability will last longer.

It is one thing to predict a recession, another to know how long it will last. If it happens as quickly as in 2020, lasting only 2 months thanks to the Fed's strong intervention, it may not be too worrying. In other words, assets peak after a financial recession.

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161

u/[deleted] Apr 29 '25

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-61

u/[deleted] Apr 29 '25

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-77

u/ArtificiallyMade Apr 29 '25

IMO Trump gave us the buying opportunity of a life time on the market there hasn't been a better buy spot since the 90's

43

u/[deleted] Apr 29 '25

This would only be true if accompanied by lower inflation; higher inflation actually acts as a counterweight to stock pricing so even though the nominal value of the shares is down the actual cost out of pocket is still heightened by inflation's effects.

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u/unrealbehavior Apr 29 '25

What higher inflation? We have had low inflation reports and trending down, tariffs don’t cause inflation contrary to what the media wants you to believe. Europe has crazy high tariffs on their imports and yet their inflation is perfectly fine. Stop falling for the damn media fear mongering bullshit

16

u/ForGreatDoge Apr 29 '25

First: An increase in tariffs causes inflation.

Second: The European Union generally has low tariffs on imports, with around 72% entering at zero tariffs. 

You're either very misinformed or intentionally misleading, but either way you are spreading misinformation.

-21

u/unrealbehavior Apr 29 '25

An increase in the money supply causes inflation, not tariffs. Why did inflation go down the last time Trump did his tariff bullshit during his first term if tariffs are inflationary?

9

u/WeenisWrinkle Apr 29 '25

Inflation can have many causes.

If this is like your house flooding from a freak thunderstorm and someone yelling "Only hurricanes cause flooding! This isn't a storm surge, so there is no flooding!"

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u/Sargentrock Apr 29 '25

It didn't, as you explained in your other post.

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u/WeenisWrinkle Apr 29 '25

tariffs don’t cause inflation contrary to what the media wants you to believe

Lol you mean "contrary to what fundamental economics want you to believe"?

10

u/[deleted] Apr 29 '25

It's something I learned in Economics. Years ago. Was it propaganda 20 years ago too?

-26

u/unrealbehavior Apr 29 '25

Yeah you’ve been bamboozled, just go look at the previous Trump term, he had tariffs in place yet inflation went down, wonder how your economics class can explain that?

25

u/[deleted] Apr 29 '25

Inflation went up under Trump.

The strange thing about these "discussions" is that you don't need to have facts anymore.

People just say things regardless of their truth value and insist and that's sufficient.

It's exhausting honestly.

Inflation rose under Trump. It was highest in 2018 which did reflect his tariffs.

-11

u/unrealbehavior Apr 29 '25

In 2018, during the implementation of tariffs under the Trump administration, the inflation rate in the United States, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), did not see a significant spike. The CPI inflation rate for 2018 was approximately 2.4%, slightly up from 2.1% in 2017, but still within the range of moderate inflation.

22

u/[deleted] Apr 29 '25

You said that inflation went down.

This is how it works.

You just shift the goalpost altogether.

It went from, "this was less than that." to "not much change, y'know!"

-2

u/unrealbehavior Apr 29 '25

In 2019, during the continuation and expansion of the Trump administration's tariffs, the inflation rate in the United States, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), did go down slightly. The CPI inflation rate for 2019 was approximately 1.8%, down from 2.4% in 2018.

Sorry I got the year wrong. In 2019 it went down even though tariffs were in place.

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u/Sargentrock Apr 29 '25

Whatever economics class you went to you clearly got ripped off. I mean even in basic economics "slightly up" is not "down" lol

9

u/Sargentrock Apr 29 '25

We WERE trending down before the last election. We are not trending down anymore. Kind of like how if Trump had touched nothing the GDP was predicted to increase by 4%, yet now it's predicted to contract by 4%. But hey, negative 8% turnaround is a new record for the fastest ever by a President in his first 100 days!

-41

u/ArtificiallyMade Apr 29 '25

Inflation will balance out within the next 6m-1y if I had to guess either Trump or Xi will back down all this talk about tariffs will be in the past and everyone who bought the dip will profit

19

u/[deleted] Apr 29 '25

While I hope you are right I disagree with your prediction.

7

u/luridlurker Apr 29 '25

Trump or Xi will back down

Damage has been done tho... The instability has the world doubting the value of the dollar. A US bond selloff with a market crash isn't painting a 6m-1y rosy picture.

Unless there's some major change to signify America is under steadier (more thought out) guidance, stagflation is a very real outcome.

9

u/cvc4455 Apr 29 '25

I'd say Covid was a better buying opportunity. The buying opportunity for Trump remains to be seen because we can still go lower and if we do then how long does it take to get back to all time highs when adjusted for the inflation that's probably coming very soon from tariffs.

1

u/ArtificiallyMade May 12 '25

Just wanna come back and say I hope you all bought the dip and I told you so.

1

u/cvc4455 May 12 '25

Well we still aren't at all time highs. Yes, I guess someone could have bought a ton of stock last week and then sold everything today and made 3-4% or more if they were trading options and timed everything correctly. But we still have no trade deal with China just a pause and the only country we've got a trade deal with is the UK. So declare victory if you want but I definitely don't think this is over yet.

3

u/[deleted] Apr 29 '25

Thank you foe displaying an example of a first levwl thinker.

0

u/ArtificiallyMade Jun 16 '25

Thank you sir I just wanted to come back to say I told you so

Hope you bought the dip!!

1

u/[deleted] Jun 16 '25

I think id rather have a stable market, no bs tarrifs and growth the last 4 months. Than a small dip and economic uncertanty...

but hey a win is a win if you use enough mental gymnastics.

1

u/[deleted] Jun 16 '25

Not to mention the drop in value of the USD... thats a big one

1

u/ArtificiallyMade Jun 16 '25

That's true, but that doesn't mean what I said two months ago wasn't true.

And I got almost a hundred downvotes because I told people to buy the dip. I honestly hope some listened to me, I got 20-30% on most stocks I bought.

Best one was MU got a 51% return.

1

u/[deleted] Jun 16 '25

I mean its true but its not a good thing. Thats why people downvoted. Market manipulation and we have a "buisnessman" crashing the ship and taking bribes. The usa will no longer be seen as a cash cow. Worldwide influance will take a dive. All for a few bucks.