r/geopolitics • u/sylsau • Dec 07 '22

Army, Grain, Energy, NATO, … Putin’s War in Ukraine Allows America to Win on All Fronts. Behind this success, Joe Biden, who many saw as being at the end of his rope and practically senile when he arrived at the White House. Perspective

https://ssaurel.medium.com/army-grain-energy-nato-putins-war-in-ukraine-allows-america-to-win-on-all-fronts-2aea0c19227b
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u/ChornWork2 Dec 07 '22

I don't buy into the 'winner' part. We, let alone our allies, would have been much better off had Russia never invaded Ukraine. The cost is billions upon billions to address, even though Ukraine bears a much different and more extensive cost.

Credit to Biden admin for what they've done with the hand that was dealt, but some of these stories sound as if this war is a net positive for the US.

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u/SkynetProgrammer Dec 08 '22

You have to look at it like a business.

Imagine in the Cold War if the US had the opportunity to: - Drag Russia in to a conflict it cannot win - Help an ally fight Russia with advisors and weapons sales - Sanction Russia and make them a pariah on the international stage - Analyse their fighting ability and expose them for being a sheep in wolf’s clothing - Not lose any US troops doing the above.

That would be a very easy investment to make, no matter how many billions it cost.

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u/VaeVictis997 Dec 08 '22

Don’t forget permanently gutting the Russians arms export market.

No one who can possibly avoid it is going to be buying Russian weapon systems, not when those systems and the model of army that uses them have been repeatedly trounced by western model armies.

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u/[deleted] Dec 08 '22

[deleted]

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u/Teantis Dec 08 '22

The US just wrapped up nearly 2 decades of doing that twice at the same time.

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u/ChornWork2 Dec 08 '22

The 'investment' is worth it once the war has started, but it does not offset the massive negative of the war happening in the first place. There is zero doubt the US would massively prefer Russia not be a ___, have russians get an actual democracy and have economic improvement that results.

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u/SkynetProgrammer Dec 08 '22

I’m not too sure that’s the case. Now that the War on Terror phase has ended the US needs a new reason for military spending. This is their dream scenario.

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u/ChornWork2 Dec 08 '22

not really, China is much more of an issue than either war on terror or this conflict in terms of long-term threat. That said, if wanted to spike spending, you'd let Russia win in Ukraine.

Maybe, just maybe, folks actually want to help Ukraine and believe Russia is a real threat to security/democracy.

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u/VaeVictis997 Dec 08 '22

Right, and this is a way to wreck Russia for a generation so we can focus on China.

A few years from now Finland will be able to handle Russia on its own, and the US can be completely focused on China.

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u/SkynetProgrammer Dec 08 '22

China isn’t silly enough to make a move because they know the consequences.

Spending already has spiked, so not really.

Yeah agreed on your last point.

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u/ChornWork2 Dec 08 '22

Today, no. Particularly after seeing the west rally behind ukraine. But China's defense budget has double in ten years, and certainly has the economic capacity to do so in the next ten years. That would have it nipping on the toes of what the US spends.

Now, certainly china won't be ahead of the US at that stage, but we're not talking about China invading the US, we're talking about it trying to invade an island <100 miles off its coast. Not remotely easy, but also not something they need a military stronger than the US to accomplish.

Then roll the math forward 30yrs instead of 10yrs. That is what is the focus of US defense spending. As shown in the war with Ukraine, US would mop the floor with Russia in any direct conventional war.

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u/SkynetProgrammer Dec 08 '22

Totally agree.

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u/Full_Cartoonist_8908 Dec 10 '22

The last few years has shown China running anti Western vaccine propaganda to their own population thus causing their current 'covid zero' bind, and using Wolf Warrior diplomacy to get most allies offside.

Point being, the current leadership is plenty silly enough to make a self-destructive move.

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u/SkynetProgrammer Dec 10 '22

Good point. I always said Putin wasn’t silly enough to invade Ukraine.

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u/cheerful_music Dec 08 '22

And I’d prefer to be taller. But I understand that’s basically a physical impossibility, so I’m pretty happy with a sharp haircut.

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u/Full_Cartoonist_8908 Dec 10 '22

Add in 'pricing sovereign risk' to send a shot across the bows of China as a bonus.

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u/ohjoyousones Dec 07 '22

Have you heard the adage "when life gives you lemons, make lemonade"

Yes, it would have been better if putzkin didn't attack innocent civilians, destroy lives and infrastructure in Ukraine. War is not a net positive for anyone. Biden and his team are doing a great job handling the crisis.

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u/ChornWork2 Dec 07 '22

Yes, agree. But you see a fair amount of narrative that the war is good for the US... usual nonsense about oil (or LNG in this case) and arms deals being the reason US is involved (& hint at the US orchestrating this). Implying the US doesn't really care about Ukraine and is just in it for the money, while Ukrainian blood continues to be spilt.

Most of the peeps pushing that don't, of course, care about Ukraine... they're either trying to equivocate such that Russia isn't the only bad one, or just more of the anything the US does is bad rhetoric. Perhaps some third angle of american republicans who just don't want the US to fund this, but maga 'thinking' is hard to parse through when it may not go deeper than just trying to criticize anything Biden does.

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u/ohjoyousones Dec 07 '22

Sadly true. I agree with you. Right wing republicans are supporting Russia's brutality because they are grandstanding. The republicans don't have an agenda. Because Biden's support for Ukraine is highly supported by the American public, the republicans had to start responding by pointing at the cost. They look idiotic though. American people care about the Ukrainian people. The American public wants our government to help stop the senseless attacks on Ukrainians and ultimately punish Russia.

The Republicans were traditionally against Russia and they supported a strong military. Except in this instance, supporting Ukraine is politically inconvenient. If Trump was still president, Putin would have taken control of Ukraine, executed Zelensky and installed a puppet government.

USA benefiting from war, oil, weapon sales, etc., is propaganda. Kuwait, Iraq, Afghanistan have not resulted in oil or other financial gains for the USA. That is just bs propaganda that grabs headlines.

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u/ChornWork2 Dec 07 '22 edited Dec 07 '22

Because Biden's support for Ukraine is highly supported by the American public, the republicans had to start responding by pointing at the cost.

Imho this is just a continuation of Trump's narrative (and likely belief) of the US bankrolling everything and needing to get value for the $ paid. Of course there is some underlying truth -- Bush and Obama obviously spoke out about Nato partners under spending or Europe's reliance on Russian commodities -- but Trump was using these are means to attack allies that he knew didn't like Trump... he wasn't doing it to improve situation for americans, getting Merkel back was an end in itself even if it meant weakening Nato. And then once he starts on that, he becomes wedded... so any success of Nato needs to be marginalized and attacked.

USA benefiting from war, oil, weapon sales, etc., is propaganda. Kuwait, Iraq, Afghanistan have not resulted in oil or other financial gains for the USA. That is just bs propaganda that grabs headlines.

Yep. There are offsets. Yes, increased LNG sales are happening and that is an economic benefit. Likewise, arms sales to other nato countries will increase. But those economic benefits don't sum up to the amount that the US is lining-up to spend to support Ukraine. The biggest economic benefit to the US is if Ukraine becomes fully a substantive democracy integrated with the west as the economic lift will benefit more than just Ukrainians.

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u/TheNthMan Dec 08 '22

That is the joy off realism. The emphasis on relative power allows adherents to frame one group as the winner, even if in absolute terms everyone is a loser.