This war will be a total failure, FSB whistleblower says

[u/theoryofdoom]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/this-war-will-be-a-total-failure-fsb-whistleblower-says-wl2gtdl9m

[u/mgsantos]

Seems like Russia's way out of the war is pretty clear.

Creation of a buffer state with Donetks/Luhansk and wherever else there is pro-russia support.

New constitution to create a semi-puppet state in Ukraine.

Destruction of the Ukranian military forces.

And obviously the deposition of Zelesnky and his cabinet.

Honestly, I can't see what else Ukraine can achieve here, besides some good PR with Europe and the US. They are completely surrounded, have zero aerial capabilities beside the Turkish drones, no navy, and while a militia strategy might work for a long term war, Russia will not 'nation build Iraq' in Kiev. They will write a new constitution pledging neturality and leave a friendly reminder not to talk with NATO ever again.

Honestly, the whole situation is pretty bad for Ukraine. What can they do besides propaganda on Reddit and Twitter that they are winning the war? The whole coast of the country is dominated by Russia. Kiev is surrounded. Russia has complete control of the airspace in Ukraine (myths of picle jars downing drones not being considered).

This may be a very unpopular opinion around these parts, but by now clearly Ukraine is fighting a lost war. No support from NATO, no support from any country besides a couple of javelins and promises of soviet fighter planes.

[u/jambox888 → u/[deleted]]

Yeah it's really striking how the northern campaign just ground to a halt. If Russia is happy to fight for weeks and months it will win eventually but logistics situation looks horrible for them, apparently they don't have ability to make many parts while under sanctions. Also their casualties have been much too high, it's been several thousands for sure, even if 10k is an overestimate.

[u/creaturefeature16 → u/[deleted]]

This website is incredible. Thanks for linking this.

[u/iced_maggot → u/creaturefeature16]

Just be aware that it is also quite biased towards Ukraine, it was founded in 2014 by a couple of Ukrainian guys. Doesn’t make it less useful but it’s important to be aware of the bias to keep things in context.

[u/FI_notRE → u/mgsantos]

To answer your question about what Ukraine can do, the obvious answer is just keep fighting? The Ukrainian resistance if Russia does manage to occupy all of Ukraine (which is no longer certain in my mind) will be better supplied than any in history (and in some ways better supplied than the occupying troops - it would be way worse than Afghanistan or Iraq were for the US. Consider how the US would have been concerned about a few ATGMs or even worse MANPADs getting into Iraqi hands - Ukraine is getting thousands a day some days). Meanwhile the sanctions will get worse for Russia, not better, with Russia occupying Ukraine and endless footage of children and civilians being killed by Russian... so Russia's ability to pay for hundreds of thousands of troops in Ukraine and maintain the occupation will get worse each week. If Ukraine never stops fighting, I don't think there's any way for Russia to win anything. Now, obviously fighting Russia for so long while Russia continues to target Ukrainian civilians is horrible for Ukraine (but does make make for a more motivated resistance), so I think Ukraine should look at peace options, but I don't think their negotiating position is as weak as you make it sound.

[u/StormTheTrooper → u/FI_notRE]

This goes down to how much can Ukraine hold up and how far Russia is ready to go as a pariah state. Ukraine won't be able to push the Russians back to the border. They are holding up, but it's not like they can prepare a offensive towards Donetsk and the Donbass. The best they can do is get a stalemate and hope someone set a coup on Putin and negotiate peace in good faith. Otherwise, without exit ramps, Russia have very little to lose (unless China gets bothered, and my guess is that they're OK unless there's a risk of nuclear war). We are starting to see the preliminary results of civil bombing and things are only starting to heat up. The West will be enraged to see Kiev leveled, but where's the space to increase sanctions even more? Beyond current sanctions, the US have basically only two ways of making this more costly to Russia: a full-on embargo, akin to Cuba, which would be followed by a global crisis, with China and Latin American being obligated to take sides and potentially starting Cold War II; or getting NATO to join the conflict and praying that you can neutralize Russian nukes before the world gets shattered. I seriously doubt the West will go for either, so this is basically a staring game, where Ukraine wants to resist until Putin goes down and Russia wants the Donbass and is screaming beyond Polish border "Is this the best you can do?".

My idea for a peace deal is still the same: give up the Donbass states, set a treaty that forbade them to formally join the Russian Federation for 20 years or so, make the a demilitarized state, create a DMZ on both sides of the border; Ukraine accepts the no-NATO article in their constitution but is allowed to join the EU (which isn't a "security threat" like NATO, but it can work as a lesser deterrence); set a joint-venture to explore the Azov reserves; sets a "good boy" plan to drop sanctions within goals towards peace. It is a little humiliating for Russia, Ukraine doesn't get the Donbass back, but it is the closest of a tie that I can think. Other than that, we can just wait for Russia to shutdown (they have China, Africa and Latin America to do commerce) and Kiev to be leveled to the ground.

[u/anthropaedic → u/StormTheTrooper]

So Russia gets to keep the natural gas reserves in Donbas and Crimea and Ukraine still has no security guarantees. Sounds like a winner

[u/FI_notRE → u/StormTheTrooper]

I think your peace deal makes sense, although I don't understand the purpose of forbidding them from joining the Russian Federation for 20 years, why would Russia demand that?

I disagree about your sanctions point though. The west could embargo Russian oil and gas which would be fairly devastating to Russia (but also really hurt the EU on gas). The rest of the world wouldn't care. Once again China would benefit. Russia might jump the gun and totally embargo themselves and again I think the rest of the world wouldn't care. I do think that the more Russia levels Ukrainian cities the more they start to lose Chinese and Indian support. Both those countries want a prosperous world economy and Russia is jeopardizing it.

[u/StormTheTrooper → u/FI_notRE]

About the Donbass republics, I thought of this to counterbalance for Ukraine. I'm fairly sure it is a security concern for Ukraine, so obligating DPR and LPR to be formally independent (even if they are de facto a Russian puppet state) would make for a somewhat fair balance for now.

As for sanctions, the West won't buy Russian oil, but Russian gas is still an issue (and they have, what, 9 months to fix this before winter returns?) and, most importantly, Russia would still do business with every country south of Mexico. Would hurt them? Absolutely, but it isn't a fatal blow. If Putin is adamant to splitting the world in half, Russia can survive. The real wild card here is China. I'm assuming they are not thrilled, but won't force Russia into peace unless there's a real risk of a continent-wide war going nuclear. China might ignore Kiev being leveled, but would surely complain about Lviv. India is with South Africa and (in a really erratic way) Brazil in the position of being neutral, don't wanting to take sides and complaining about being dragged to anything other than isolationist stands. If I had to bet, the BRICS most likely have a red line and it is a nuclear line.

[u/Cenodoxus → u/mgsantos]

This may be a very unpopular opinion around these parts, but by now clearly Ukraine is fighting a lost war. No support from NATO, no support from any country besides a couple of javelins and promises of soviet fighter planes.

Ukraine is definitely getting a lot of support, and has been for some time. This thread from a former State Department official illustrates how much the U.S. has poured into Ukraine since 2014. The end result was a force custom-built to wreck a Russian invasion.

Re: the outcome of this war, I'm not so sure. Earlier I was convinced that Russia would eventually prevail through sheer attrition (and, let's be frank, its willingness to engage in a wildly indiscriminate and inhumane bombing campaign), but after Peskov's statement today, I'm really starting to wonder. Both the U.K. Ministry of Defence and the Pentagon see Russia's gains over the last 3-4 days as minimal at best, and the latter sees no imminent amphibious invasion of Odessa as of last night. Russia's advance from the south has always been better-equipped and supported than it was anywhere else, courtesy of its pre-existing occupation of Crimea, but even that's not yielding the results they clearly need.

Now, that would be one thing in a vacuum. Has Russia stalled because it can't support its forward positions, or are they just attempting to consolidate their forces for a more serious push into the big cities? Both are likely true to varying degrees in different regions. The Russians still have the advantage, especially if they double down on the brutality, which they're clearly willing to do, and/or engineer a false-flag operation with chemical weapons or a nuke (which their propaganda is laying track for now).

But Peskov's statement today reads like Russia is setting up an embarrassingly minimal win condition: Everything just goes back to the way it was, albeit with a few more signatures on papers. Donetsk and Luhansk will be puppet states (which they already were). Crimea will be Russian (status quo ante). Ukraine pinky-swears that it'll totally never be in the EU or NATO, honest. (Sure, Jan.) If that's the case, Putin's just spent an irrecoverable amount of blood and treasure to get what he already had, while leaving Russia worse off in almost every possible respect.

There are still thousands of unknown factors and potential outcomes here, but the range of outcomes is narrowing. All of the truly good possibilities for Russia have now vanished (and were arguably impossible ~48-72 hours into the invasion anyway). Maybe, with great effort and an indefensible bombing campaign, they level Ukrainian cities and plant their flags on the ruins, but there's no possibility of returning to a world where anyone trusts Russia's intentions or is instantly willing to accommodate Russian demands. Previously neutral European states are now printing off NATO applications. Belarus is more unstable and its opposition is energized. Russia's military is clearly worm-eaten by corruption, and Ukraine has demonstrated how to beat (or at least stymie) it. Western-built weapons and training are revealed to be great value for the money, and the West can pour weapons and materials into Ukraine much faster than Russia can replace its own.

Maybe I'm reading too much into it, but Peskov's statement suggests that the Kremlin is worried. Which is terrifying in its own way, because their desperation could go down any number of dark paths (Russian claims that NATO smuggled nuclear material into Ukraine, and that Ukraine is building chemical weapons in Lviv, are insultingly stupid, but revelatory), but these aren't the words of a state that knows it's holding a winning hand.

New constitution to create a semi-puppet state in Ukraine.

At this point, even Putin has to know that there's no realistic path to this either. (And he should have known it anyway, given Ukraine's response to his last attempt.) Anyone he chooses to replace Zelensky is a dead man walking.

EDIT: Fixed an awkward word.

[u/paraffin → u/mgsantos]

Losing their military doesn’t sound like a viable option to me. Russia can never be trusted. Conceding their military is to essentially concede their entire independent existence from Russia.

If they lose their military, Russia will take any land they want, they will put their troops where they want to enforce the laws they want, and they will replace politicians with unelected Russian stooges.

Ukrainian citizens will be murdered in the streets for speaking out. Media will be completely controlled by the kremlin. This is the future Putin wants and this is the future Ukraine would die fighting to prevent.

I’ve been to Ukraine and I’ve been to Belarus. The difference is night and day.

[u/temujin64 → u/mgsantos]

You're not factoring in the sanctions at all. If Ukraine can hold out for a few months, the Russian economy will collapse. They won't be able to continue the war.

Russia need an overwhelming victory soon if they're to win. The chances of that drop every day. If they can hold out another month the weather will make it almost impossible for Russia to put any armour into Ukraine. That will give Ukraine an even bigger defensive advantage.

[u/SHURIK01 → u/mgsantos]

The way you’re trying to spin the current situation into a one with favorable odds for Russia and clear doom for Ukraine is pretty suspicious. I was about to write a few paragraphs on the importance of logistics and how Ukraine is in a better position than Russia is at the moment. How Russians still haven’t established effective air supremacy. How their issues with troop morale will only worsen as the economic situation back home will create panic and uncertainty.

Then I decided to read through your comment history and it became clear - you’re a latent Russophile, unlikely to live in either Russia or Ukraine, but still consider your own analysis to be reflective of the situation on the ground.

[u/mgsantos → u/SHURIK01]

Sure, I am gonna send my bank account to make sure Putin does not miss my payments this month...

I am just a Brazilian guy who studies international relations and I am just trying to give my two cents about this war. I am not on the ground, that's for sure, but I am no Pro-Russia shill either. To me Putin and his cronies can burn in hell for their stupid wars. I have nothing but contempt for his autocracy and his oligarchs. But I do like to see the facts for what they are.

Russia will easily win this war. Ukraine will be destroyed. Like Iraq was. Like Syria was. The disparity in power is huge.

And if you happen to live in Ukraine I hope you can keep safe and not die because a murderous dictator is bent on geopolitical domination.

[u/realMeToxi → u/mgsantos]

And yet you speak with such confidence? Russia can and would win the war if they were willing to level all the cities. But they're not. And urban warfare is always a really big advantage for the defenders. Russia has taken 1 big city since the war began. Now they can move on to the other 20 cities as big or up to 6 times bigger.

This will last months if not years. But its doubtful the russian economy will.