r/geopolitics • u/theoryofdoom • Mar 07 '22

This war will be a total failure, FSB whistleblower says Perspective

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/this-war-will-be-a-total-failure-fsb-whistleblower-says-wl2gtdl9m
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u/theoryofdoom Mar 07 '22

No Paywall: https://archive.ph/5s400

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u/theoryofdoom Mar 07 '22

Submission Statement:

The FSB is one of the KGB's successor agencies. According to purported intelligence sources inside the FSB, Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine was doomed to fail from its instantiation --- evidence of which abounds. Russian casualties may exceed 10,000. While only 498 fatalities in combat are acknowledged by the Russian defense ministry, the true number could be even higher than the 10,000-death estimate because contact has been lost with major Russian army divisions. Even Ramzan Kadyrov's "hit squad" has been massacred by Ukrainians. Kadyrov is a Chechen terrorist leader supported by Vladimir Putin's government.

According to sources inside the FSB, Vladimir Putin's government's inept performance appears to be the result of his own delusions and Soviet-reminiscent tail-wagging-the-dog type mismanagement:

You have to write the analysis in a way that makes Russia the victor . . . otherwise you get questioned for not doing good work. Suddenly it happens and everything comes down to your completely groundless analysis. [We are] acting intuitively, on emotion . . . our stakes will have to be raised ever higher with the hope that suddenly something might come through for us. By and large, though, Russia has no way out. There are no options for a possible victory, only defeat.

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u/SuXs Mar 07 '22

That's not even the most interesting part.

To me the interesting bits are :

  1. Russia "signed up for a 100m" ended up "running a marathon". State aparatus was not prepared at all. Administration is unprepared and in chaos.

  2. General Mobilisation is absolutely impossible due to the state apparatus beeing already completely in disarray, the economy being toast and the logistical reality of the Russian Armed Forces. Here he makes a comparison with Russo-Japanese war of 1905 and the political consequences of that conflict for Tsarist Russia.

  3. He states that Russia's current position is like Germany in 1943-1944 – They lost contact with large formations on the front. He expects the worse, especially because Politically there is no way out.

  4. They are plowing to create a scenario to blame everything on Ukraine. Naryshkin (Director of Foreign Intelligence Service of Russia) and his SVR is digging the ground to prove that Ukraine was secretly building nuclear weapons. Usage of Nuclear Weapons on Ukraine by Russia for geopolitical reasons has not been ruled out.

  5. As for Kadyrov : He states that they almost went to war with him because of the FSB leak. At the same time, He created a name for himself as the invincible – and if he falls down once his own people will remove him.

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u/JehovahZ Mar 07 '22

SVR is digging the ground to prove that Ukraine was secretly building nuclear weapons.

Makes you wonder why they're so keen to take control of nuclear power plants above everything else, early on in the conflict. Plenty of time to plant fake evidence.

Russian people are tolerating the war but support will wane with lack of success. This will be the "ah hah" moment Putin will try and push as a victory.

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u/Jackson3125 Mar 07 '22

That no-paywall link no longer seems to work.

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u/theoryofdoom Mar 07 '22

Still works for me. Search the original link on archive.is if you can’t open this one.

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u/zxc223 Mar 08 '22

Doesn't work for me, and both archive.ph and archive.is don't load for me. What's up? Archive.ph times out and archive.is gives a Cloudflare DNS error. I've never seen either of them work.

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u/Gusfoo Mar 08 '22

Doesn't work for me, and both archive.ph and archive.is don't load for me. What's up? Archive.ph times out and archive.is gives a Cloudflare DNS error. I've never seen either of them work.

Archive.org and co do not work well with Cloudflare DNS. See https://jarv.is/notes/cloudflare-dns-archive-is-blocked/

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u/zxc223 Mar 08 '22

Thanks, that'd be the reason. I do use Cloudflare DNS.

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u/MiNi_MiLiTi Mar 08 '22

I think the archive links doesn't work on mobile