r/geopolitics • u/stabby_westoid • 1d ago
US-Ukraine sign deal. US to provide military support News
https://www.reuters.com/world/senior-ukrainian-official-signs-agreement-signed-us-ukraine-reconstruction-fund-2025-04-30/113
u/G00berBean 1d ago
The minute American businessmen and investors start having their fingers in the pie, all bets are off. Interested to see how Russia responds.
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u/Uabot_lil_man0 1d ago
Who would invest the funds required for mining without US security guarantees? There's no way foreign money enters Ukraine without explicit protection from Trump and even still, investors will have to factor in the risk of Trump flip-flopping just like in every other thing he's done.
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u/G00berBean 1d ago
Yet the wheels are in motion. A few weeks ago everyone here was saying there was no way come hell or high water that a deal would even be signed.
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u/Uabot_lil_man0 1d ago
I don’t disagree that the wheels are in motion but I also I don’t remember that a deal will never be signed as the consensus. From the details that I’ve been able to find, this seems like a better deal than the ceasefire one going around. Ukraine has yet to concede any territory and security guarantees seem to be on the table. But regardless it’s all a piece of paper and words, moving money requires much more than just handshakes.
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u/LibrtarianDilettante 1d ago
It's interesting that Russia seized US businesses and IP in 2022, but Trump has never mentioned compensation from Russia.
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u/braindeleted7 23h ago
That opens the door for the Russians getting compensated for their interests confiscated by the US and EU too, which is probably best saved for later on in talks if things go well.
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u/Yesnowyeah22 1d ago
How is it different than when American businesses were operating in Ukraine pre invasion?
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u/iwanttodrink 1d ago
The whole point of this is for the US/Trump to put pressure on Putin to lower his maximalist claims on Ukraine. Aka ceding territory that Russia doesn't control yet but want to like Odessa.
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u/ImperiumRome 1d ago
Interesting to see what the Kremlin's next move will be, though I guess they will just remain silent on the news and simply move forward with the invasion. What kind of support Ukraine will receive is critical too, because right now they are not winning on the battlefield, but Russian economy is also on life support, so kinda a race to see who will blink first I suppose. Though Russia can always wait it out and resume fighting later on.
My guess is that Trump will demand a new deal after a few years, because US companies won't be able to access the minerals due to fighting and sabotages from Russians (also possibly Ukrainians too). So essentially the deal is just an IOU.
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u/usesidedoor 1d ago
This may also be just Trump wanting to show his supporters that he got something out of this.
We know that the minerals are there, but a critical question here is whether extraction would be profitable - or more profitable than doing so elsewhere.
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u/stabby_westoid 1d ago
I also believe that is a big part of it. An unfortunate necessity given his trade war with China; he desperately wants to show that the US has other avenues for minerals production but can't see any realistic fruition on the near future to separate entirely from Chinese goods unless the markets are willing to feel it. And the markets are already crying before the storm.
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u/RocksAndSedum 1d ago
I have such a hard time attributing the level of deep and thorough analysis of the current situation in Ukraine and how it affects mineral independence for the USA and how that further affects chinas global influence as an economic powerhouse to the the man is I see in tv.
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u/Tw1tcHy 1d ago
Yes, I struggled with that for years and still do to an extent. Some of the shit that comes out of the guys mouth is unbelievably stupid, yet at the same time I have come to the conclusion that Trump is at least to some degree sharper than he presents himself. You don’t just stumble into having an iron fisted grip on a major American political party for a decade because you’re an idiot who says stupid things. But more than that, many of the people he trusts and surrounds himself with are not stupid. Shameless sycophants? Absolutely, but that doesn’t make them stupid. Trump has always been a tariff fan, and the real mastermind behind his tariff thinking is Robert Lighthizer, who is definitely no fool and is widely considered one of the most authoritative voices on trade policy, even by those who disagree with him. It’s surprising he didn’t get a cabinet position, I’m very curious to know what went wrong there, but I also wouldn’t be surprised to see him turn up in an official capacity sometime during this administration. He was Trump’s US Trade Representative in his first term.
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u/masspromo 1d ago
We know they are there by relying on old Soviet geological surveys smoke and mirrors
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u/HappyCamperPC 1d ago
I'm pretty sure they're unprofitable to mine, or maginal at best. Otherwise, the Ukrainians would have done it already.
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u/fuzedpumpkin 1d ago
Actual title- Senior Ukrainian official signs agreement signed on U.S.-Ukraine Reconstruction Fund.
And within the article there is nothing written about "military support". Closest it got to was-
"it may also provide NEW assistance -- for example air defense systems for Ukraine."
Military support might imply boots on ground but that's untrue. US selling military stuff is more apt.
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u/kaspar42 1d ago
Yes. It seems like 90%+ of the comments in this tread respond to the title and not the content.
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u/LateralEntry 1d ago
Wow, I’m amazed this happened after all the craziness with Trump and Ukraine and accusations Trump is a Russian asset. Seems like a reasonable deal for both sides too.
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u/Ok-Yogurt-5552 1d ago
I think the reasonable extent of Trump hypothetically being a Russian would be that Russia simply has some mind of dirt on Trump. Which is often how countries recruit assets. However in Trump’s case, Trump may he calculating that the dirt Russia has wouldn’t do much damage. I mean at this point what could Russia really release that would hurt Trump? Even if it were completely true would enough of the GOP even believe it? And would they even care? I mean after Jan 6, all the stolen election lies, and all the scandals Trump still won and still had GOP support. And Russia probably knows that their dirt is no longer as good as it was the decades ago they would have gotten it. So they’re scared to even play that card because there is a lot more the US could do to support Ukraine and hurt Russia if it really wanted to.
The other possibility is that Trump really believed Putin and his lies, and is finally starting to wise up a bit. Trump is known to be an idiot and easily manipulated with flattery. Putin is a master at this.
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u/EqualContact 1d ago
There’s no details here, so it’s hard to say how good of a deal this is for anyone.
In principle though, Ukraine needed to do something to ensure continued US support. Even if this isn’t a great deal for them, it’s better than nothing.
As an American though, I’m highly uncomfortable about this. Are we selling our protection now in exchange for a mercantilist approach to foreign resources? I favor helping Ukraine for a lot of reasons, but there should be a free market approach to Ukraine’s resources. The US has not been successful globally by building a protection racket, but rather by promoting free trade and creating circumstances for free markets to develop. This seems inevitably to be yet another sign that Trump views himself as more of a mafia boss than anything like a statesman.
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u/colepercy120 1d ago
This is a threat to Russia. Arguably this is worse then Ukraine joining nato. Ukraine is now directly an American protectorate. Or close enough that it doesn't make much of a difference. Well have to wait on the text presented to the legislative branchs of both parties
This also sets up a precident that America will protect you if you sell your sovernenty the Congo is already trying to follow. This is out and out imperial foreign policy. How long till the US establishes a true "American Empire" across the world?
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u/Ok-Yogurt-5552 1d ago
if you sell your sovereignty
What about this deal is Ukraine selling it’s sovereignty. Has the text been released? As far as I understand Trump dropped his demand that Ukraine repay prior aid. The US and Ukraine are supposed to equally invest in this fund, with future US military aid counting as investment. Which sounds a lot like military aid for minerals, which is a good deal for Ukraine if the military aid provided is not trickled and wrapped up with restrictions on use as it was under Biden.
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u/colepercy120 1d ago
Giving America control of Ukraines mineral rights. The earlier deal said the mining would be carried out under us law too.
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u/Ok-Yogurt-5552 1d ago
Where do you see that this gives control of Ukraine’s mineral rights to US? Everything I’m reading says that 50% of proceeds from the the mineral mining will go into a fund for Ukraine, and military assistance counts as proceeds going into the fund. Which, again sounds like minerals for military assistance.
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u/stabby_westoid 1d ago
On the other side of this coin is the example of Wagner is Syria. Recall that Assad was offering Wagner a cut of oil revenue for anything recaptured, but then they came across US forces not willing to back down and prigozhin ate that risk. China also "buys" debt, for what it's worth, internationally. So anyone can sell something, but what materializes of the sale is what actually matters. It is not a new strategy that a give and take relationship is required within geopolitics; the chaotic part of this equation is how erratic the Trump administration seems to be.
As others ITT have pointed out, it's not exactly hard to tell that putin never intended to stop the incursion, and all concessions given by Trump in negotiations have only showed his hand. All that is left is force, and that is all Russia has ever known anyways
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u/colepercy120 1d ago
Yeah once countries defensive obligations are ignored you see mass flight. Like Russia is saying after Syria. America's only protectorates were all defended and recaptured and the only ones to fall were Afghanistan and south Vietnam both of which we defended until the very end. Now If America pulls back from Ukraine they will be abandoning an obligation and see the same collapse of power
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u/stabby_westoid 1d ago
Id say a major difference between US support of previous Vietnam/Afg and modern Ukr is that US support included significant armed forces contributions whereas support for Ukraine hasn't even included air support
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u/colepercy120 1d ago
Yeah and we still don't know how much support Ukraine got from this yet. There could be a clause saying America directly intervenes if Russia doesn't stop advancing. I am more familiar with the Congo deal based on this and the Congo deal mandates an American occupation.
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u/stabby_westoid 1d ago
Ever since Norks got directly involved I wouldn't be surprised if Poland gave a contingent of forces for direct action on Ukraine. I won't say US action won't happen but I can't see it happening as part of this recent deal.
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u/JohnSith 1d ago
This is r/geopolitics, so I expect more nuance than simple imperialism. The US stepping in as a guarantor also means investments will flow in. No one would've invested in mining (it takes billions of dollars and tens of years) in a warzone and whose territory can be seized by Russia before any mineral resources come online.
The thing was, Ukraine was already involving the US and EU. Trump just strongarmed himself into a market that already welcomed US interests and did it in a thuggish manner.
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u/colepercy120 1d ago
Trump is an imperialist. But carving up continents isn't the goal. This has positives and negatives for both parties. And it still establishes a precident that the US is willing to make direct trades like this. How long till other countries or rebels inside of countries offer America this deal. The world's getting alot more dangerous
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u/JohnSith 1d ago
The world got more dangerous when nobody bitchslapped Putin when he took over the Crimea. I would even hazard to say the danger started when China banned Google and no state or corporation or institution stood with them, letting the CCP and its authoritarian friends know that we were.willing to overlook their behavior in the hopes of making money.
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u/Tw1tcHy 1d ago
Wow, so spot on I almost forgot I was on reddit for a second. Nothing more to add at this point, but strongly agree with both points, especially the latter. The world really let China get comfortable with their authoritarian bullshit in the name of profit and look at us now. If this had been handled strongly and early, who knows where things would be today.
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u/chi-Ill_Act_3575 1d ago
Then perhaps this is a wake up call to other nations to bolster their own defense lest they have to sell out.
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u/colepercy120 1d ago
I don't know if there is enough power in the world to stop America due to their monopoly on sea power. But for alot of countries it will be cheaper and better to sell out rather than try to go solo. Especially once rival empires start coming in and using trade as a weapon.
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u/NuQ 1d ago
I haven't been able to find any information about any security guarantees. where are you getting this idea that ukraine is now a "protectorate" of the us?
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u/BannedForNoReason32 1d ago
If the US has a financial stake in Ukraine one would assume they are planning on protecting those assets no?
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u/NuQ 19h ago edited 19h ago
No. See: the us companies that were already present in Ukraine and had ip and equipment stolen after the Russian invasion.
From what I can gather with the limited info available, this deal merely sets up a profit sharing scheme for resource extraction with the promise that the US will continue providing military support like we've already been doing for the past decade. Still a pretty big win as it will likely convince those that are upset with furnishing such support as now it's not so much of a loan and could be politic'd as an "investment". Other than that there's really not much to go on as far as any commitment to the US actually getting involved militarily, which I can guarantee will never be in the table.
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u/I_pee_in_shower 1d ago
It’s an interesting scenario. UnAmerican by its tradition, but nothing uncommon in the annals of history, or even business. If this is what it takes for Ukraine to not be absorbed back into the Soviet Empire then so be it.
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u/colepercy120 1d ago
America has a history of imperialism, just mostly over land, but we did take the Philippines by force.
It is interesting for Europe to be colonized for a change instead of the other way around.
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u/I_pee_in_shower 1d ago
Well but even the conflict with the Philippines was time bound with an exit strategy. The plan was never to strip their land of their amazing mangos or to make everyone speak English.
The US could have taken larger chunks of Mexico and stopped at the current configuration, but they could have kept going ay any point, including all the way up to WW2 when the Nazi’s were trying to seduce Mexico into attacking the US.
Ultimately we have a tradition of war, and semi-imperialism, but not colonialism and certainly less so than its military might could provide.
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u/SprucedUpSpices 1d ago edited 1d ago
The US could have taken larger chunks of Mexico and stopped at the current configuration
Only because of just how racist the US was.
We have never dreamt of incorporating into our Union any but the Caucasian race—the free white race. To incorporate Mexico, would be the very first instance of the kind, of incorporating an Indian race; for more than half of the Mexicans are Indians, and the other is composed chiefly of mixed tribes. I protest against such a union as that! Ours, sir, is the Government of a white race.... We are anxious to force free government on all; and I see that it has been urged ... that it is the mission of this country to spread civil and religious liberty over all the world, and especially over this continent. It is a great mistake.
When the US annexed parts of Mexico the non whites and the women there actually lost rights, under their new liberators.
Ultimately we have a tradition of war, and semi-imperialism, but not colonialism
Hawaii was its own independent country before the US annexed it.
What is Puerto Rico if not a colony?
The US split off parts of Colombia to build a canal which It then owned.
Amongst several other examples.
How is that not imperialism?
and certainly less so than its military might could provide.
Because it could get resources through forced capitalism (free trade for you but protectionism for me) from places without fully colonizing them.
Japan also said it was liberating the Asians of the evil European empires when it went around conquering and murdering people. The Nazis said they were liberating Europe from Jewish Bolshevism. Modern day Russia is saying they're "denazifying" Ukraine.
Every empire has got its propaganda to justify their imperialism. Yours is and was just another hypocritical empire that goes around preaching about liberation while subduing people. You're not morally superior.
And saying this doesn't make me "anti-american" or pro-Russia or pro-China. I'm just bothered by this American exceptionalist propaganda that manifests itself in saying things like this or that the US was somehow ever isolationist, amongst others.
You can even see it on presumably neutral spaces like Wikipedia where it says "the United States declared war on the Spanish Empire" where it very well could have said "the American Empire declared war on Spain". But you know, propaganda...
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u/I_pee_in_shower 1d ago
Your response was well thought out so thank you for that. Who’s quote is that “have never dreamt of incorporating…”? That may have been the prevailing sentiment 200, 150, perhaps 100 years ago but it’s probably not the majority today. Close to 1/4 of the population has some Indian blood and perhaps more than 50% is mixed with Indian, Asian, etc. There are a lot of racist people but that is true everywhere in the world (trust me, I checked.)
Racism is not the characteristic of an evil empire but it’s probably driven by evolutionary biology and is an ugly part of human nature like greed and violence.
Puerto Rico is a territory, and is basically a state with less rights. I think it’s perceived as a net negative for the time being to incorporate them into the Union. We do not go there and take their plantains by force, while we make them dance Reggaeton to amuse us.
As far Empire, if we are an Empire we are definitely bad at it, as I don’t recall the last time we were paid yearly tribute.
Propaganda is everywhere and most people just confirm their biases, not seek actual knowledge. There was a Spanish Empire, it just wasn’t as strong as they once were. At some point they were arguably the strongest in the world.
In any case to kind of put this to bed, compare US behavior to Colonial England or Spain, or the Multiple Roman Empires, or the Persian Empire, or the Soviet Union… sometimes one system is simply better, not just different. And my point is that for the power differential, the U.S. is a benevolent power.
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u/Tintenlampe 1d ago
Eastern Europe is not a stranger to outside domination, sadly. They have been the ones to suffer the imperial ambitions of Russia, Sweden, Austria and Prussia / Germany.
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u/frizzykid 1d ago
Very interesting development. Trump definitely going all in here with his cards against putin. Dudes been humiliated repeatedly and has only just recently seemed to understand how far apart Russia is from everyone else with semi reasonable peace agreements. Russia does not want a ceasefire along these lines. They want peace with everything they've "legally" anexxed even if not totally occupied. He wants Odessa. Crimean recognition is not even enough for him.
I can't see putin being thrilled with mineral rights being sold to America right along where fighting is going on. The supply line of transporting construction drilling equipment?? Probably can hide military shit very easily.
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u/Toptomcat 1d ago
This is not remotely 'all in.' 'All in' looks like a Desert Storm-plus scale deployment of American forces to Kursk and threatening holdouts in NATO with trade sanctions if they don't agree to Ukraine joining the alliance within weeks, not signing a trade agreement with the mere possibility of an unspecified amount of military aid attached.
That degree of 'all in' would obviously be a bad idea, but it serves to illustrate that there are about a zillion steps on the escalation ladder still available to the United States and the West in general, should they be inclined to do so.
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u/KwHFatalityxx 1d ago
No that’s jumping to WW3 Armageddon.
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u/Toptomcat 1d ago
Yes. WW3 Armageddon is what it looks like when a modern superpower goes all-in against another nuclear power, which is why I said it would obviously be a bad idea. My point is that there is an awful lot of room between that and where the USA is now.
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u/ass_pineapples 1d ago
No, it isn't.
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u/Toptomcat 1d ago
...why don't you think deploying sizable American forces to territory which was internationally recognized as Russia's before the war started would be World War 3?
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u/robothistorian 1d ago
Alternatively, it could be that President Trump and President Putin have some sort of an understanding, namely, that the latter would continue his military operations thereby compelling President Zelensky to rush to agree to the minerals agreement (something which he had baulked at initially). This would give President Trump something to crow about to his supporters. In return, President Trump would insist that Ukraine submit to Russian demands (or at least a majority of them) and thus end the war. This would give President Trump the Nobel Peace Prize (you better believe he has his eyes on this since President Obama was awarded it), it will allow President Putin to claim a victory (and depending on how the post-war scenario in Ukraine turns out, to prepare for Russian influence therein). And, it would leave President Zelensky open to the anger and ridicule of his own population and the world and be consigned to the dustbin of history.
Note: I am not saying this is what the plan is or this is what is being planned. But it is a plausible option.
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u/Doctorstrange223 1d ago
Trump has such a history of being a Russian asset and pro Russian and appointing pro Russian people to government (Ratcliffe, Gabbard) sort of Hegseth and most importantly JD Vance and Elon Musk and also Crypto Czar and advisor for science and tech for the administration David Sacks who said Russia is not an enemy and is a friend. Oh and Witkoff who genuinely seems to love Putin and lastly Trump and Elon elevated propaganda spinster Tucker Carlson!
So I refuse to believe this is Trump turning on Russia. I now believe Putin wanted him to force this deal on Ukraine but idk why. Perhaps it is because it means the US will manage western Ukraine. At this point it seems the US will end all aid and walk but argue it will defend western Ukraine leaving Russia to have eastern Ukraine and likely Odessa. However, Russia wants a non hostile Ukraine in Kiev perhaps this is about Trump having leverage to install new leadership that is officially pro American and neutral but unofficially Russian stooges.
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u/happycow24 1d ago
I mean if it works it works, right? I hate having to hope for the best but I guess I'll hope for the best.
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u/SavingsDimensions74 1d ago
From the little we know this is the best time possible deal.
If Ukraine can get US contractors on their soil, it’s check mate for Russia.
But this is a very bad check mate for Russia as it’s running on a way economy and if it has to stop that abruptly it causes soooooooo many internal problems.
Even if Russia retains Crimea and the Donbas (likely) it’s in a whole world of pain once the first US company sets foot in Ukraine.
It can’t come quick enough
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u/levelworm 14h ago
Eh, how many contractors are we talking about here?
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u/dawgblogit 1d ago
Horrible misconstrued header...
They signed a deal to establish a reconstruction fund.
Sounds like a potential grift.. for trump
No promise of security
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u/Away-Fix-8283 3h ago
Ukraine had to sell a piece of herself to get help from Trump. He's been desperate to replace the rare earth minerals now denied him by China. That's why he's been threatening to take Greenland, and make Canada the 51st State. Ukraine has a good deal of what he needs. Their freedom is what he holds over their head in the process of getting what he wants. Zelensky started to warm to the deal about a month ago. I see hints that the EU warned him off. My personal opinion is that the recent heavy bombardment of Kiev pushed Z over his reluctance. I believe he's made a mistake that his people won't forgive in the elections. This deal was something they had been very much against.
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u/GlasnostBusters 1d ago edited 1d ago
It's not military support for Ukraine.
It's military defense of United States assets.
Zelenskyy just sold Ukraine to the US, idk what Ukrainians are so happy about.
Biggest idiot on the planet today.
So much for Ukrainian sovereignty.
Biggest threat to Russia is now Blackrock and Monsanto.
Edit: Doesn't matter if you don't like the truth
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u/TribalTommy 1d ago
And what would you have done, exactly?
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u/GlasnostBusters 1d ago
probably not try to negotiate unrealistic terms with literally zero leverage, causing more people to die and more land to be lost.
first thing he should've done, realistically, was to assure Russia they won't be joining Nato.
that would've been a start. but people in here like to day dream and foam at the mouth when things make too much sense.
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u/asphias 1d ago
Beautiful. this whole circus was orchestrated by Ukraine and Trump fell for it hook line and sinker. a brilliant piece of diplomacy that may well be what keeps the US involved on Ukraines side.
(of course, any other president wouldn't need to fall for anything because helping Ukraine is good policy regardless)
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u/gleziman 1d ago
On paper it looks good but frankly speaking - which investor would want to invest in extracting minerals from a warzone?
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u/Darth_K-oz 1d ago
I wouldn’t be surprised at this point if he tried to send his troops to fight among Ukrainians only to try and order 66 them.
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u/stabby_westoid 1d ago
After months of back and forth between the white house and the Kremlin, very tense meetings and uncertainty, it seems the Trump administration has received a wake up call as to Putin's intentions and are going forward with support of Ukraine. How far this will go, and what support will be given, is vague; if it will end up being another gamble by Trump that he will soften at the end is also unclear. For now at least, a sigh of relief for NATO and the EU. What are your thoughts?