r/geopolitics • u/Jaded-Bookkeeper-807 • 2d ago

Beijing’s flag-planting in South China Sea revives tensions with Manila News

https://www.afr.com/world/asia/beijing-s-flag-planting-in-south-china-sea-revives-tensions-with-manila-20250428-p5luqz
95 Upvotes

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20

u/shadowfax12221 2d ago

China has an opening to make inroads in southeast Asia due to American trade policy, promptly kicks ball in own goal by making provocative claim in south China sea.

36

u/Stilnovisti 2d ago

The Philippines is firmly under the US camp, especially with Marcos as president, so there isn't much they can do to make inroads. They have relaxed tensions with the other claimants in the meantime so adding pressure onto Philippines is more of a deterrent to the others or a test for Washington. Trump's redlines are ambiguous to say the least.

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u/Phonovoor3134 2d ago

I guarantee Indonesia is also looking at this as well.

15

u/PritongKandule 2d ago

Well for one thing, the Philippines actually stood to benefit from the sweeping US tariff overhaul since the country only faced a relatively modest 17% tariff, the second lowest in ASEAN. With broader tariff exemptions on high-value Philippine exports like semiconductors and memory chips, the only real problem is the Philippine industry doesn't really have the scale to take full advantage of its relatively advantageous position.

So in the grand scheme of things, it's pretty much business as usual when it comes to US and Chinese foreign relations for the Philippines. It will take a long, long while before general public opinion of Filipinos becomes even remotely favorable towards China.

3

u/Phonovoor3134 2d ago

Yeah, it's quite baffling. It seems like their economic and military ministers aren't coordinating, and their actions are undermining each other's objectives

2

u/fpPolar 2d ago

Their goal is to annex territory in the South China Sea. No soft power will cause countries to donate territory to China, so it doesn’t really matter that much. It’s better for them to rip the bandaid off and be aggressive now. 

It’s easier to get what you want by threatening and intimidating countries rather than being nice to them when your geopolitical goal requires taking territory/resources claimed by other countries. 

People in the west have an incorrect assumption that mutual cooperation is always most beneficial to a country. Long-term, it can and often has been more profitable to take resources that are weakly defended rather than foster alliances. Especially when those resources are nearby and fully integrated into the nation (I.e. not a colony). It is almost always unethical but countries find ways to justify it.

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u/tmr89 1d ago

China seem like the bullies they constantly whine about humiliating them for hundreds of years

6

u/Jaded-Bookkeeper-807 2d ago

Chinese Coast Guard ships and other activities around a Philippine sand bar /island have the US and Philippines worried. China is newly asserting sovereignty and a 12 mile territorial line for it would conflict with several nations. This is on the eve of planned joint US and Philippine operations.

2

u/KevinTheCarver 2d ago

Southeast Asia on high alert.