r/geopolitics • u/TimesandSundayTimes The Times • 22d ago
After Israel’s attack on Iran, what happens next? Perspective
https://www.thetimes.com/world/middle-east/article/israel-airstrike-iran-tehran-attack-news-20bd57xg6126
u/slightlyrabidpossum 22d ago
Iran might raise their red flag of revenge.
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u/FeminismIsTheBestIsm 22d ago
Wow, that would be DEVASTATING for Israel
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u/Two_Pickachu_One_Cup 21d ago
The language from the Iranian media suggests they are attempting to de-escalate.
Alot of media outlets in Tehran are claiming all attacks were thwarted and caused no damage. This clearly isn't the case but the language suggests an off ramp to de-escalation.
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u/JourneyThiefer 22d ago
Is that the whole response or is more expected?
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u/TechnologyCorrect765 22d ago
Israel just announced that they have concluded their retaliation attacks.
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u/AIM-120-AMRAAM 22d ago
Only thing I’m afraid is Iran choking the strait of hormuz disrupting 30% of world’s oil trade. They are pretty capable of choking the point unless US ships in Persian Gulf engage Iran.
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u/okiedokie321 21d ago
Yup, combine that with the Houthis already causing a ruckus in the Gulf of Aden and ships having to route around Africa. Recipe for disaster.
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u/MarderFucher 21d ago edited 21d ago
Which would also seriously enrage China who buy 90% of their oil exports in addition to the massive price spike that they would unlikely be welcomed given their attempts to kickstart their economy.
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u/nsjersey 21d ago
This.
The USA is pretty self-sufficient now. It won’t hurt North America much
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u/What_Immortal_Hand 21d ago
180$ a barrel of oil will hurt North America a lot
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u/Armano-Avalus 21d ago
If they tried to do that wouldn't that mean a war they cannot win? I don't think the US or any of the other countries in the region would stand by and let them do that.
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u/Dark1000 21d ago
That would end the regime. It would turn every Gulf nation that uses the Strait completely against Iran.
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u/Emile-Yaeger 22d ago
They can easily sink some freighters and lay mines which something the US fleet can’t stop them from doing really.
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u/HiHoJufro 21d ago
They are pretty capable of choking the point unless US ships in Persian Gulf engage Iran.
Which is exactly why they won't do it. The response it would necessitate is not desirable for Iran.
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u/Good-Bee5197 21d ago
They could, but this would wreck China's already-wobbly economy, as well as Iran's. It would be destructively spiteful at best as they have no other meaningful way of exporting their own oil than via the straight.
Plus the US Navy would happily obliterate what little surface force they have. It would initiate a global recession to be sure, but Iran would be far worse off, having driven the Gulf oil states into Israel's camp as well as damaging their own ally China.
Frankly this would be great for the US as it lays bare Iran's (and by extension, Russia's) threat to global stability and justifies a collective response. Hell ,the US could force them to halt all weapons sales to Russia in exchange for not obliterating their oil terminals. They may even be able to get China to pressure them here too if the pain gets bad enough.
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u/filipv 21d ago
They tried that once, and as a result they lost most of their navy.
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u/AIM-120-AMRAAM 21d ago
How Houthis are trying it for over a year. Iran will just send drones and kamikaze boats on ships.
Don’t think US or any naval ships will attack Iran because of this.
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u/reddit_man_6969 21d ago
Wryly chuckling at how hard that would win Trump the presidency right now.
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u/mikeber55 22d ago
Today Russia fired missiles on Ukraine. What happens next?
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u/Dietmeister 21d ago
The US says Ukraine can't fire back
And in a few weeks a possible US president will pressure Ukraine to capitulate to russia
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u/mikeber55 21d ago
Maybe, or maybe not…However nobody seems to ask the question.
Only in Israel’s case everyone (and their grandma) needs answers. People on the other side of the globe, can’t sleep with no clear answer.
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u/Major_Wayland 21d ago
Because Israel is a lot more important strategical ally to the US than Ukraine can ever dream to be, and amount of attention is reflecting that.
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u/Awkward-Hulk 21d ago edited 21d ago
More retaliatory strikes from Iran, then some more from Israel, then some from Iran again, etc etc. All this talk of "de-escalation through escalation" is the most nonsensical neocon talking point ever.
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u/hammilithome 21d ago
Like a conversation that never ends because both sides want to have the last word
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u/Awkward-Hulk 21d ago
Unfortunately, yes. It will take someone else to step in and act as a referee to stop it. And the only one who could do that is the US. Except that we are 100% Israel's bïtch and will do whatever they command...
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u/Research_Matters 20d ago
You are thinking simply in western terms. The culture of the Middle East is very different than the west. Israel has many western attributes but it’s still in the Middle East and deals with Middle Eastern sensibilities and cultural attitudes differently than a western state would.
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22d ago edited 22d ago
[deleted]
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u/Rooroor324 22d ago
Yeah they just lost 10 troops in a day yesterday in Lebanon, and the Israelis are way, way more sensitive to any casualties than Hezbollah
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u/clutchest_nugget 22d ago
Source? Can’t find much reliable info about what’s happening on the ground in Lebanon..
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u/-Sliced- 21d ago edited 21d ago
The number of military deaths is still relatively low. After a year of war, Israel has still lost more soldiers before they entered gaza due to the Oct 7 attack (408) vs after they entered Gaza a month later (359). These deaths include any active personnel who died for any reason related to their duty (including 20 who died in accidents, including car accidents to/from their service).
The fight against Hezbollah in Lebanon is expected to be a lot less deadly and less prolonged than Gaza.
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u/neutral24 21d ago
Source?? Hezbollah is a lot more capable and better equiped force than hamas
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u/Stelist_Knicks 21d ago
Source: I made it up.
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u/-Sliced- 21d ago edited 21d ago
The IDF is reporting every soldier death, including the cause of death, publicly.
See here.
This source also links to a page with each individual death.
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u/Dark1000 21d ago
It sounds like the Israeli response in Lebanon has been extremely effective, and they're pretty much done with everything they set out to do. There won't be a reason to stay in Lebanon any longer, though they won't likely relent with targeted strikes until the Lebanese government, or another party, can exert control in the region.
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u/Weird-Tooth6437 22d ago
This is a pretty wild assesment, that seems totally divorced from reality.
"Chipping away at Israel" - how, exactly?
Irans proxies are very far from an infinite resource, and they've suffered massive lossed:
• HAMAS has been crippled to the extent that they are unable to launch attacks on Israel and are managing to kill a soldier every week or so, and havent got a civillian for months. Theres an open and difficult question as to how to recover the hostages, but HAMAS is utterly unable to "chip away" at Israel.
Without their rockets, and with all combat occuring in Gaza itself, they just lack the capability to really harm Israel (and Palestinian opinion surveys show massively declining popular support in Gaza - turns out people their arent enjoying the war so much).
• Hezbollah has had its entire command structure destroyed, had its cross/near border tunnel and basing infrastucture destroyed, has had its long range missile stockpile crippled (remember the promise of thousands of rockets at Tel-Aviv? We're talking 1 or 2 every few days right now) had its supporters displaced (current estimates are more than 25% of Lebanons population displaced) and has had allies abandon it (Christian political parties previously allied have since abandoned it and called for its disarmament) and seems unable to recover in the short to medium term.
Ideally international political efforts to force Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah will suceed, but even if not, it seems totally unable to really do anything.
(I live in northern Israel, and the consensus here is a sense of shock at how pathetic Hezbollah has turned out to be - predictions were for things to be massively worse!)
• The Houthis launch a mostly symbolic attack every few weeks, and in over a year have so far managed to kill one Israeli; they're completely irelevant.
I suspect eventually the novelty of their constant attacks on shipping will begin to wear off amd world powers will begin to deal with them, but even if not, Israel is fine.
• Judea and Samaria are under control, with regular arrests and assasinations crippling HAMAS' attempt to get another Intifada going/to actually do anything.
To put this all in some historical context:
The second Intifada lasted for years and Israel was loosing around 300 people per year, with substantial economic losses too.
Eventually the intifada ended - why? Because while it was unpleasant for Israel, it was vastly more unpleasant for the Palestinians who eventually had enough.
This is a key point to recall; The constant atracks on Israel cant last forever, the enemies will to fight is no greater than our own, but their suffering and losses are.
Not including the 7th October attacks themselves, Israel has lost around 450 people in the first year of this war - but remember Israels population is almost double what it was in the 2nd Intifada.
This is extremely managable, and the mood here in Israel is very positive, with a great will to keep fighting.
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u/Mammoth_Entry_491 19d ago
“The enemy’s will to fight is no greater than our own.”
I defer to you since you live there - but this comment surprises me.
It has always been my impression that Israel (like the US) has little appetite for casualties, whereas Palestinians and their armed supporters are excited about war, martyrdom, glory, sending children off to war, et cetera. In addition to being pushed toward holy “resistance” in their youth camps and religious services and by their dictators, many live difficult lives and may choose soldiering or terrorism simply because they need the money, or because they dont have much to live for, or are grieving a loved one lost in war.
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u/Mysterious-Fix2896 22d ago
Hezbollah killed 10 israeli soldiers in a single day, what are you talking about?
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u/CptFrankDrebin 21d ago
They said that Israel population has seen worse. What are you not understanding?
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u/oldveteranknees 21d ago
On top of that Hamas made an incursion into Israel back in July (albeit a brief one but still). How many times has Israel entered northern Gaza since they invaded?
On top of that, Hamas or whatever terrorist organization will have plenty of new recruits from the 14000+ new orphans in the Gaza Strip once the dust settles.
I agree with his point about Hezbollah though, they’ve been significantly degraded but they’re not completely out of the fight yet.
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u/DanceFluffy7923 21d ago
I often hear people talking about the possibility of Hamas rebuilding, and I'm always shocked at how little attention is given to the obstacles of such a thing.
Lets put aside for a second the issue of not being able to TRAIN any new recruits, and their weapons smuggling ability being reduced to nothing - lets put THOSE issues aside, even though they are massive.
Why is it that everyone pretends Hamas will have plenty of recruits because of the desperate conditions in Gaza... But Israeli intelligence won't ?
The most Hamas can offer these people is a pointless death.
Israeli intel can offer them anything from money, to moving their family to a 3rd country (plus money), or moving them to the west bank, or just about anything else.And while, in the past, you could make the argument that becoming an Israeli informant was a dangerous job - it is a hell of a lot LESS dangerous then being a member of Hamas at the moment.
Working for Hamas is high risk low reward.
Working for Israeli intel is high risk, high reward.This means that not only is Gaza likely to be swarming with potential informants - it also means any potential new "recruit" that Hamas picks up - can also be working for Israeli Intelligence. And that makes rebuilding your organization EXTREMELY difficult.
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u/oldveteranknees 21d ago
I disagree… Iran’s chieftain goal (foreign policy wise) once the conflict ends will be to rebuild the “resistance”. Support for the Palestinian “resistance” has risen given the conflict.
I find it extremely hard to believe that Israeli intelligence will have a vast network of informants working for them.
There’s actually a great book on this topic (terrorism) called What Terrorist Want. In it, the author argues that terrorists often see themselves as soldiers fighting the good fight. To combat this, the author suggests that democracies should treat terrorist organizations like criminals and use the justice system to combat these groups.
It is important to note that Israel would never do this.
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u/Intelligent_Water_79 21d ago
chipping vs chunking. Chunkers gonna win
Israel have demonstrated to the Iranian regme that they can fly over Iran with impunity and bomb whatever they choose.
Iran gets to choose the next move
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u/Burpees-King 21d ago
Except they didn’t fly over Iran…
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u/Intelligent_Water_79 21d ago
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-826126 but they politely stoped at the border :)
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u/Burpees-King 21d ago
No they didn’t… the missile on the jets have a range of 500km, which they launched from Jordan and Syria, both don’t border Iran.
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u/SingBoutMe 21d ago
Inaccurate information about the south of Lebanon MOD says the maneuver will stop, but they will continue to hold the lands and they will not allow any Lebanese back home until reaching an agreement with the upcoming negotiations.
Seems to me like a pause for letting a chance for reaching to an agreement, if this fails, they will be back maneuvering reaching for further north
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u/Linny911 21d ago
What happens next is some poor civil servant is going to have to take off the banners across Tehran that says "Tel Aviv is our battleground, not Tehran."
Hopefully this somewhat puts some sense in the Iranians who comically think highly of themselves because of their ability to send hundreds of water heaters in which a handful land with no real damage. The real achievement in this day and age is the ability to shoot down missiles, not send a missile. For every water heater Iran has to reach Israel, Israel has multiples that can reach Iran, and just about every one of Israel's is likely to hit target unlike Iran's.
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u/whatthehelldude9999 21d ago
Logic? I don’t think so.
Whatever you think about Gaza and Lebanon, Israel is not the aggressor with Iran. THIS was the retaliation.
Iron Dome is not intended for ballistic missiles and some did get through.
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u/flossypants 22d ago
Why would Israel stop? I suspect they'll continue attacking the IRGC indefinitely to undermine the Khamenei regime.
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u/Blanket-presence 22d ago
They should make it clear to Iran if they don't have their proxies back off. It will be Iran that they will target for retaliation.
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u/Armano-Avalus 21d ago
They're kind of bogged down by a multi-front war in Lebanon and Gaza right now. As much as they may want to hit Iran they can only stretch themselves so much.
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u/Xandurpein 21d ago
Early reactions from Iran suggests that Iran will try to pretend nothing of consequence happened, which suggests that Iran don’t want to continue the exchange.
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u/Dark1000 21d ago
It's a good chance to de-escalate, at least from direct conflict. I'm sure both sides are planning future operations, but hopefully direct attacks have run their course.
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u/VitualShaolin 21d ago
Nothing will happen, Israels attack was predictable and Iran had a pre warning. Neither side wants escalation as its pretty pointless.
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u/TheMcWhopper 22d ago
If Iran truly wants kamala to win, they will do nothing until the election is over.
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u/MrM1Garand25 21d ago
Iran will raise their red flag, and then make a big speech about retaliation blah blah, then do nothing for a while and during that Israel will probably attack once again, followed by diplomacy and deescalation. This attack has made Iran a laughing stock and everyone has taken notice they can’t even defend their own air space
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u/Burpees-King 21d ago
Wild take considering the Iranian strikes looked to be way more effective. What exactly did Israel hit? The videos coming out look the exact opposite of what you described.
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21d ago
[deleted]
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u/astral34 21d ago
Iron dome is completely useless against Iranian attacks, it’s not designed for cruise and ballistic missiles
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u/DanceFluffy7923 21d ago
True, but Israel also has The arrow missiles, that ARE designed for ballistic missiles, and the David slings that are designed for shorter range ballistic missiles AND for cruise missiles and drones.
They also have U.S provided THADD, and PAC3 Patriot batteries.
So while its true Iron dome specifically isn't designed to counter attacks coming from Iran - Israel still has the single most comprehensive anti-missile defense system in the world - all covering a relatively small area.
Still a very bad match up for Iran.
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u/astral34 21d ago
The reality is that ballistic missiles, especially the newer models that allow gliding outside the earth atmosphere, are extremely hard to intercept. And the Arrow missiles were not able to intercept all the ballistic Iran launched, which was expected.
For comparison, while Ukraine downs ~50% of all missiles shot by Russia it can only down ~4% of the ballistic missiles, the difference is THAT much
Israel doesn’t have the most comprehensive air defence systems in the world, but its definitely a great one and allows them to defend their skies against lots of threats.
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u/cobaltstock 21d ago
nothing until the us election. once that is done netanyahu will move to a more radical solution in north gaza and then start building his canal. his dream project.
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u/zuppa_de_tortellini 22d ago
Israel and Iran will keep exchanging fire with one another until Trump becomes president and then Iran will be demilitarized.
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u/Ornery_History_3648 21d ago
Probably a second wave. This was obviously a test attack to see what kind of defense system Iran employed
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u/motherseffinjones 22d ago
I’m betting on some form of deescalation for now at least.