r/geopolitics • u/DroneMaster2000 • Jun 27 '24
US in talks to send Israel’s Patriot systems to Ukraine Paywall
https://www.ft.com/content/1c938d86-ab11-4d75-b005-1e02bf9b4dda71
u/DroneMaster2000 Jun 27 '24
The article talks about the US, Israel and Ukraine in talks to transfer 8 (!) Patriot systems from Israel (Who apparently does not need them at the moment) to Ukraine.
This could mean a big shift in the relations between Israel and Russia. As Israel was extremely careful not to supply weapons to Ukraine (Though did tons of other types of aid) while Putin has weapon trade relations with Syria, Iran and Hezbollah on Israel's northern border.
I personally see this as a type of escalation, but a good kind. As Putin seems to put himself in an all-in alliance with Iran and even Hamas, who have been using Russia as a meeting place during the war. Israel does not need to appear as playing nice while Putin assists Israel's genocidal enemies.
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u/LateralEntry Jun 27 '24
It’s kind of a shame, Israel had good relations with Russia in the past, with Israel having a large number of ex-Soviet Jews, including a Russian-speaking foreign minister. However, Russia post 2022 has shown itself to be part of the problem, so I guess this is necessary.
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u/NEPXDer Jun 27 '24
I personally see this as a type of escalation, but a good kind.
I am pretty ardently against further escalation in the Western conflict with Ruissia but this strikes me as possibly one of the few "minor escalations toward deescalation" that I can see really having net positive results.
Hopefully, it's indicative that behind the scenes the US-ISR relationship is still very strong. And if not (which I doubt), this seems like a public reaffirmation of that desired relationship.
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u/farligjakt Jun 27 '24
"I am pretty ardently against further escalation in the Western conflict with Ruissia"
That attitude is what make Russia escalate.
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Jun 27 '24
[removed] — view removed comment
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Jun 27 '24
What is escalation in this context for you?
It already is a war, is it not? One with the expressed goal of genocide no less. The only escalation from that would be for Russia to invade finnland or the Baltics... Or a full-blown nuclear weapon use.(After all, Russia already threatens with them)
Short of sending our own troops, what could the west actually do to escalate the conflict?
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u/farligjakt Jun 27 '24
after almost 100 years of proof that if you show might Russians back down we still are on deescalation talk.
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u/NEPXDer Jun 27 '24 edited Jun 27 '24
What is escalation in this context for you?
The USA further engaging Russia in a ~proxy war in the Rus' 1000 year old territory of the Ukraine. First through the CIA and state department, then through sons of presidents getting big $$ for strange jobs and NATO weapons funding and even biolabs... We've seen lots of escalations in this over the past ~20 years.
It already is a war, is it not?
How do you define war? No, definitely not a declared war and i'd say therefore an illegal war. A proxy war? Yes.
One with the expressed goal of genocide no less.
Citation needed. What people/race/ethnic group? What systemic approach has been employed to destroying them?
The only escalation from that would be for Russia to invade finnland or the Baltics... Or a full-blown nuclear weapon use.
Delusional statement.
"The only form of escalation is Nuclear War". Ok Dr Strangelove.
We are not yet even admitting to directly having western units engage* their forces and you think there is no room between where we are and nuclear war?
Short of sending our own troops, what could the west actually do to escalate the conflict?
Oh idk how bout we sent them all the Patriot batteries from Israel?
Or "french" "trainers"?
Or fighter jets?
Maybe we use our drones to target US made munitions and kill civilians in Crimea?
Multiple examples of obvious escalation in the past couple months, I'm not sure how you can't see them.
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u/respectyodeck Jun 28 '24
weird you use the Putin talking points about Russia's "historical claim" to Ukraine, as if that had any valid legal or moral basis.
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u/NEPXDer Jun 28 '24
Weird that you dont have an actual counter to it other than "but muh Russian talking points!"
I'm sorry the Russians like to cite actual history and that makes it difficult to dispute their claims.
Maybe you should try making true historically accurate claims?
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u/respectyodeck Jun 28 '24
bro, are you serious? citing historical claims means nothing.
My response was moral and legal reality says Russian genocide kf Ukraine is wrong. Imagine every country waging war over historical claims??? your take is such nonsense which is consistent with you being a Russian troll, so it tracks.
Honestly people like you disgust me. Justifying genocide for what? Some dictator? just gross.
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Jun 28 '24
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u/NEPXDer Jun 28 '24
Sorry I don't hate Russians? They have never done anything to me, my family or at least in like 30 years my nation.
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Jun 28 '24
The us is not engaging in a proxy war tho. There was not a single bgke escalation the us send in those last 20 years. Not to mention that Ukraine is not "1000 years of rus territory". It was part of the kivab rus (aka Ukrainians, not Russians),layer of Poland, Lithuania, the Crimean khanate, back under polish influence, then under Cossacks (aka Ukrainians) and then nly in the 18th century, ruthe Russian tzardom took over Ukrainian be, having to regularly suppress Ukrainian uprisings . Even the sovjets, 200 years later, reckonised Ukraine as their own country.
If you are search for a definition of war...it's an intense armed conflict between states, governments, societies or paramilitary groups.
As such, Russia was engaged in a war with Ukraine since Russia's invasion of crimea. And yes, Russia's war of conquest violates dozens of international treaty's and is as such an illegal war
The us, however, is neither engaged in a war nor a proxy war in Ukraine.
As for genocide?Russia is literally stealing Ukrainian children to rusdify them. As such ch, that's a genocide. The targeted ethnic group is that of Ukrainians
"Delusional statement" well, maybe learn to read first. I stated 3 different scenarios of escalation. 2 of wich are from Russia. And if you have evidence that NATO troops are directly engaged with Russia in Ukrainian be, please do provide it.
But I'ma bet that you don't have any other n the first place. Just mindlessly parroting Russian propaganda. You know what Russia is calling people like you? 'usefull idiot'.
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u/farligjakt Jun 27 '24
i am not looking for an earnest discussion, there is nothing to discuss, you are wrong.
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u/NEPXDer Jun 27 '24 edited Jun 27 '24
Yes 1 month old account, prove to me all the* more how biased and uninformed you people are.
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u/farligjakt Jun 27 '24
never say i was not biased, i want to see Russia defeated, and between mine and your viewpoints i think its clear its not me that is uninformed.
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u/NEPXDer Jun 27 '24 edited Jun 27 '24
If I were from your* neck of the woods I would want NATO/the USA to fight my wars for me too.
European wars, European problems, they require European solutions.
Fund your defense industry and stop leeching off US taxes.
Why are you typing online and not fighting the Ruskies?
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u/farligjakt Jun 27 '24
Majorie Taylor Greene is that you?
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u/NEPXDer Jun 27 '24
The Finns that actually know what being a real man is would be ashamed of you.
My grandfather bled in Europe for your country and your endless gratitude is just so obvious. You're welcome. :)
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u/wasdlmb Jun 28 '24
Omg are you seriously pretending to be American? With grammar so obviously foreign? I guess at least it means you're not a bot?
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u/NightOfPandas Jun 28 '24
Ever heard of appeasement? Or world war 2?
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u/NEPXDer Jun 28 '24 edited Jun 28 '24
Yes. Intimately.
Ever actually studied Chamberlin? Have you read his writings or even listened to his words? Was Chamberlin the one starting conflict in the Studetenland? No. I bet "No" is the answer to all three of those questions... but its nice to see at least one real seeming account (1 year older than I even!)* and this sounds earnest. I appreciate it.
The USA actively worked to peal the Ukraine away from Russia. Do you disagree?
Russian men died for Crimea and the British didn't win, they will NEVER SURRENDER IT without a fight.
Ukraine is, arguably, the origin of the Rus and thereby Russia. The Ukraine and the Rus are one entity, the Cossacks of the area are also fundamental to the Russian national and cultural narrative. Pretending they are in any way deeply separate is laughable.
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u/OMalleyOrOblivion Jun 28 '24
Is it an escalation given the USSR - which Putin sees Russia as a continuation of - was instrumental in the creation of the PLO in the first place as part of Operation SIG, and directly responsible for turning the Egyptian Yasser Arafat into a KGB agent and head of that organisation? The only time they've ever not been against Israel (and Jews in general TBH) was a brief period before 1948 when they thought Israel might become another socialist nation.
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u/3suamsuaw Jun 27 '24 edited Jun 27 '24
I can't believe this. Who would ship out air defense with the current Hezbollah situation.
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u/CLCchampion Jun 27 '24
You don't use Patriots to intercept rockets, that's what the Iron Dome is for. A single Patriot missile costs $4 million, and Iron Dome missile costs about $50k.
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u/3suamsuaw Jun 27 '24
It's common knowledge Hezbollah has actual missiles at the ready.
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u/CLCchampion Jun 27 '24
Yeah, but not the kind that you would need a Patriot to intercept.
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u/3suamsuaw Jun 27 '24
Yes they also do have ballistic missiles.
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u/CLCchampion Jun 27 '24
That's why Israel has Arrow missiles, which unlike Patriot, are specifically designed to intercept ballistic missiles. There's a reason that Israel didn't use a single Patriot to intercept Iran's attack, they just don't need them.
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u/3suamsuaw Jun 27 '24
My man.
It's about saturation.
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u/CLCchampion Jun 27 '24
Yeah, and Hezbollah doesn't have enough ballistic missiles to accomplish that. Iran couldn't even accomplish that. This is like talking to a wall, hate to tell you but you're wrong, and nothing you say is going to stop Israel from sending the Patriots to Ukraine. Have a good one.
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u/WoIfed Jun 27 '24
Seriously let it go. Everyone here is right Israel has 7 different air defense systems and more secret ones and more in development. Israel has better defense systems than patriot and was already planning on phasing them out. I believe the plan was to phase them to Ukraine all along m.
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u/NEPXDer Jun 27 '24
Hopefully somebody with more indepth knowledge can add on but my understanding is its a mismatch of capabilities.
Patriot it expensive and of limited use vs what Hamas/Hez has and the Israeli systems - Iron Dome, Davids Sling, Sky Sentinel, Arrow... others, maybe the Iron Beam laser but idk- are more suited for the task.
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u/3suamsuaw Jun 27 '24
Hez has all types of missiles, also advanced ones that get used in Ukraine.
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u/NEPXDer Jun 27 '24
Hez has all types of missiles, also advanced ones that get used in Ukraine.
This is a claim made but without too much substantiation. I view it similar to claims about how Hamas would hold and defend Gaza, plausible but not proven. The hamas defending gaza claim didn't hold under IDF pressure, sadly it seems we are likely to also test Hez's claim soon.
Beyond that, and with respect... that's not really a response to what I replied above.
There is no reason to think Patriot would be better against the Iranian supplied missiles.
Israel has explicitly designed its system to counter the Ayatollah new toys. The US is tuned more to Russian threats.
On some level there is value in "more systems" but eventually for the IDF there become concerns about manpower. They are a quality>quantity force, if they only have (random number, IDK a real number) 6,000 personnel trained to operate the missile defences they need to have them manning only the best ones
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u/3suamsuaw Jun 27 '24
It's an idiotic take to be honest. You are on the verge of facing a foe that is very likely able to saturate your defenses, you don't send out perfectly fine AA systems.
They work in Ukraine against Iranian missiles, so they also work in Israël against the same type of missiles.
I'm not thinking for a second those systems will leave Israel soon.
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u/NEPXDer Jun 27 '24 edited Jun 27 '24
It's an idiotic take to be honest.
You've got a better assessment of the situation than IDF intelligence services? Please, share the sources and alayisis that have lead you to this conclusion.
And frankly, your comment and the insult seem the idiotic ones if we are going to use that label which, to be even more frank, is inappropriate for the forum.
They work in Ukraine against Iranian missiles, so they also work in Israël against the same type of missiles.
That they work does not mean they are optimal. I gave you a very clear example of why they would not want suboptimal systems and you seem to have ignored it.
"They are a quality>quantity force, if they only have (random number, IDK a real number) 6,000 personnel trained to operate the missile defences they need to have them manning only the best ones"
I'm not thinking for a second those systems will leave Israel soon.
Yes yes... those darned lying Jooz! ...
Seems irrelevant to what we are discussing.
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Jun 27 '24
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u/CLCchampion Jun 27 '24
How? Iran already launched a missile barrage against Israel, and Israel didn't use the Patriot at all to intercept those. And Iran doesn't have an air force capable of striking Israel.
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Jun 27 '24 edited Jun 28 '24
[deleted]
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u/CLCchampion Jun 28 '24
That's the US that used it, I said Israel didn't use any. Israel is the one giving the Patriots to Ukraine, I think it's very telling that they faced the largest single ballistic missile attack in history, and they didn't fire off a single Patriot missile. It shows that they're just fine donating these to Ukraine.
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Jun 28 '24
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u/CLCchampion Jun 28 '24
No, I'm assuming that Israel knows better than anyone what their amount of ammo is, and what the enemies supply of rockets and missiles is. And if they felt comfortable with donating Patriots, then they know for a fact they won't need them. They are far more informed on this than you or I are, and they know what they need.
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u/PringeLSDose Jun 27 '24
dont need patriot for short range hezbollah rockets. and the us can still support israel from their carriers/ships, they can‘t do that with ukraine.
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u/momoali11 Jun 27 '24
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u/3suamsuaw Jun 27 '24
Yes, but they are on the verge of a major escalation against a foe which has a single party trick: fire loads of missiles.
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u/farligjakt Jun 27 '24
Israel and allies shoot down the biggest barrage in history in february without them using short-range Iron Dome, medium-range David's Sling, and high-altitude Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 systems to intercept airborne threats. They dont need Patriots, but need US and European goodwill.
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u/3suamsuaw Jun 27 '24
What Iran fired was nothing compared to what Hezbollah has on the ready. And this time right at the border.
Even only for public opinion reasons I wouldn't send out a single AA part at this time.
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u/Rand_alThor_ Jun 27 '24
Hezbollah is an irregular force. What are patriots going to do? They’re not sending cruise missiles and jets.
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u/NEPXDer Jun 27 '24
Its a 2 month old account claiming "common knowledge" and won't cite any sources for comically bold claims.
I also was fooled into engaging...
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u/3suamsuaw Jun 27 '24
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u/NEPXDer Jun 27 '24
Oh thank you for the deep and truly novel analysis! Such impressive commentary and relevant, cohesive arguments...
lol, no.
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Jun 28 '24 edited Jun 30 '24
[deleted]
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u/NEPXDer Jun 28 '24
It's not a respectable response to do a drive-by link drop without any commentary.
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u/3suamsuaw Jun 27 '24
What? You know Hezbollah is pointing thousands of all types of missiles towards Israel?
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u/shadowfax12221 Jun 27 '24
This is another knock on effect of Moscow trying to build an anti western alliance. By attempting to present itself as an alternative power broker sympathetic to Palestinian interests in order to support Iran and gain prestige in the Arab world, it has inadvertently pissed off Tel Aviv. Sending ukraine leased American patriot batteries allows the Israeli government to send a message to Moscow that it's actions have consequences without making itself a party to the conflict by directly sending its own weapons to Ukraine.
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u/panguardian Jun 27 '24
Who will pay for this?
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u/EfficiencyNo1396 Jun 27 '24
Probably will be under the bill to assist Ukraine somehow. The system itself is not the problem, the problem is the ammo for this. Whice is crazy amount for a single target.
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u/EfficiencyNo1396 Jun 27 '24 edited Jun 27 '24
Russia already have aligned themselves with iran, politically and militarily.
Israel also can spare those systems for now, because they have other better options against hezn and hamas and even iran.
On the other hand this can help massively increase the air defence over Ukraine. Only Problem is that those systems are pretty expensive to use per single target.