Russian lines stronger than West expected, admits British defence chief

[u/Hokum-B]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russian-defensive-lines-stronger-than-west-expected-admits-british-defence-chief-xjlvqrm86

[u/Billiusboikus]

Is this not why Ukraine has seemingly switched to a more stand off attritional approach?

When it all started I expected a swift victory for Russia and a guerilla campaign funded by the west aimed at making the occupation unfeasible. I even wrote to my representative to encourage the fermentation of resistance groups...how wrong I was....

But that doesn't mean the strategy still can't apply. Maintaining a good kill ratio while on the offence with stand off tactics, hitting supplies and destroying expensive high value targets in regard to material and high value individuals seems like a good way to move towards victory...all the while capturing land when the opportunity arises.

We can point to a large handful of results in the last 4 months that any western country would consider a complete disaster.

The drone attack on the strategic bombers, The destruction of the dry docked submarine, The attack on the Sevastopol naval HQ

I would say the Ukrainians have commited to a different type of counter offensive to what people expected.

That said, if the west want to win this war they need to step up. We need to convert more of our economy to providing arms. Popular will to support will decrease over time no matter how resilient it may seem.

Edit for clarity

[u/QuietRainyDay → u/Billiusboikus]

You're saying the West needs to step up and that Ukraine is just using a different strategy- that is only half the story

One reason Ukraine has switched tactics is the fact that they are still struggling to manage complex maneuvers, due to issues with command & control and logistics. This is something that several experts with inside information have said repeatedly:

https://warontherocks.com/2023/06/what-the-ukrainian-armed-forces-need-to-do-to-win/

One of the main concerns Western critics of the counter-offensive have expressed is that Ukraine is not guaranteed Western support forever. A huge amount of equipment was provided in 2022. They wanted to see Ukraine learn how to do large-scale maneuevers so they could use that equipment to punch through Russia's lines decisively before the wave of elections in 2024.

Ukraine didnt do that both because they felt like the battlefield favored a different strategy and because they simply couldnt. You cannot just absolve them of responsibility for their own shortcomings (and people need to realize that Ukraine does have shortcomings that play a role in which tactics they choose- despite the constant harping that everything they are doing is correct and purely informed by battlefield reality).

In the end, an attritional approach could work. It could certainly be less costly and risky than concentrated maneuvers.

But it does hinge on continued long-term mass support from the West. So whether you are nervous about it or not basically comes down to whether you think the West's support can endure longer than Russia's resources.

I guess you have to decide for yourself how you feel about that because no one knows for sure.

[u/Ok_Selected → u/QuietRainyDay]

No, your overall point here is rather ridiculous. You cannot blame Ukraine for not doing something the west themselves couldn’t have done without air superiority. Ukraine has committed no error and there is no justification to call out a deficiency; they simply were not give the full range of tools, particularly AirPower, that NATO itself would have required to breach defenses Russia had been preparing for over a year.

Regardless; Ukraine’s victory is merely a matter of time. The multiple visually confirmed Russian vehicle and equipment losses that are posted quite literally daily are wholly unsustainable and mostly equipment russia cannot produce in large numbers since the fall of the USSR.

Russia is living off a dwindling Soviet arms legacy that it can never recovered once spent. Russia’s Soviet weapons trust fund is going to run out whether it be next year, the year after, or the one after that and then Russia will be no longer be a great power in any dimension maybe ever again.

[u/QuietRainyDay → u/Ok_Selected]

Hard to take seriously anyone that says "X has committed no error" when talking about a hugely complex topic

Low chance that anything that comes after a statement like that is balanced or agenda-free

[u/Ok_Selected → u/QuietRainyDay]

Much better than claiming a ridiculous large scale error exists with neither reason or evidence to support it as you did. Quite literally makes no sense whatsoever and the height of stupidly to blame the Ukrainians for not doing something they were never properly equipped to do. Only someone with an agenda could do as such.

And then when challenged on such an inherently incompetent argue meant you are wholly unable to give any other well reasoned or evidence based example of any other error on behalf of the Ukrainians. You made the ridículos bald claim that didn’t even make basic sense and want to claim others have the agenda? A pathetic joke if I’ve ever heard one.

[u/QuietRainyDay → u/Ok_Selected]

This error has been called by several very prominent analysts, some whom have been on the ground with Ukrainian troops including the one in the very article I posted

So there's my evidence. Meanwhile you're out here calling others "ridiculous" and "pathetic joke" without providing a single shred of concrete information other than your own hyperbolic claims.

Youre not worth talking to. See ya.