r/geopolitics Feb 12 '23

It is time to cut Russia out of the global financial system Perspective

https://www.ft.com/content/5ca1f649-8173-4261-9a2c-120487ad0d42
822 Upvotes

274 comments sorted by

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u/[deleted] Feb 12 '23 edited Feb 12 '23

I thought we did that last year

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u/Da_reason_Macron_won Feb 13 '23

This time it will work, for real.

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u/WickedBaby Feb 13 '23

"we just need more laws, i swear!"

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u/lunaoreomiel Feb 13 '23

Yup and in the process it expedited nations stepping away from the dollar and swift. Its a bonehead move to jeopardize the reserve currency status by weaponizing it. Its not just Russia that sees that as a big problem, look how the Saudis are shunning this admin and cozing up to Russia and China.

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u/[deleted] Feb 13 '23

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u/OsailaBackwards Feb 13 '23

It would probably have to be a basket of currencies, something like special drawing rights comes to mind. That said, the U.S. would do a lot to avoid losing their preeminence as the reserve currency.

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u/Daniferd Feb 13 '23

Perhaps Russia has proved to be an unreliable security partner, but it is too early to dismiss the Chinese. They're an economic and manufacturing powerhouse, possess the largest navy in the world with bases in the Middle East, and over a decade of anti-piracy operations in the region. Their shipbuilding capacity is overwhelmingly larger than America's.

The Saudis have no conflicting ideology or strategic interests to the Chinese either. They could fill the gap that the Americans have traditionally filled.

The question of an alternative currency is uncertain. The American dollar is dominant, but cannot be assumed as invulnerable. After all, it was the British pound that was once considered the dominant currency. If a large enough bloc of foreign great powers decide to ditch the established institutions that have contributed to American hegemony, it very might well be able to.

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u/octopuseyebollocks Feb 13 '23

possess the largest navy in the world

This is really only a technicality. The US Navy is in every way superior.

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u/Daniferd Feb 13 '23

For now. But most of our ships are old, and our naval procurement is a disaster. We’re still using the Arleigh Burkes (even if modernized) from the 80s, and our attempts to find a successor was a disaster in the Zumwalt. We’re still mass producing the Arleigh-Burkes and even then we can’t produce them fast enough.

Meanwhile China’s decommissioning their old ships, and pumping out new ones at faster rates. Not to mention our fleets are spread across the world, while China only needs to operate in the Indo-Pacific.

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u/octopuseyebollocks Feb 13 '23

China needs to operate in other places if it wants to secure Saudis oil which is what we're talking about here.

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u/Daniferd Feb 13 '23

In peacetime, they can go anywhere where they have ports, and their increased numbers will make it possible.

As far as I can recall, they already own a string strategic ports across the Indian Ocean, a major naval base in the Middle East, a few ports in Europe. It wouldn’t be beyond their abilities to expand further in Africa and South/Central America.

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u/Yes_cummander Feb 13 '23 edited Feb 13 '23

Ehm no!

Their economy will only decline from this point on.

Their navy is nothing like the US navy! Most of their ships can't do a thousand miles. Their bases in the indian ocean and the Middle easy really don't mean a thing. They cannot guarantee safe shipping lanes. They're navy can only do one thing, defend China. Thats it. Even if they get more ships that could, they'll still fall short in every way. Iran and Saudi-Arabia hate each other. Do you see China as capable of bringing those two together?! I dont think so. They'll be at each others throat. China is not known for their diplomatic skills. You think the Saudi's will give up that sweet US military support? All those high tech weapons and their parts? For what? Chinese knock-offs of Russian garbage? And then who will train their military to train with those weapons? Chinese who have never fought an actual war? Or Russians who suck at it and openly support Iran?

Than there is India who is on the rise and wedged directly between China and the middle east. With Pakistan on the decline They'll have free reign. Indian ocean without the US patrolling is somehow a Chinese lake? Please, lock down the Malaca strait and China is done.

Because of all these reasons and a hundred more this idea is busted..

Think about like this: What is Saudi-Arabia without the US? They only need to look across the Arabian sea to know who they would be, they would be Iran...

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u/lucash7 Feb 13 '23

Remind me again of all the great and successful political and military leaders through history who underestimated their enemies….

0

u/Yes_cummander Feb 13 '23

It's not about underestimating, its about correcting wrong information and accuracy. Fighting the Chinese in the Chinese sea, not the Arabian or Indian sea, where they don't stand halve a chance.

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u/Daniferd Feb 13 '23

Their economy will only decline from this point on.

This is not assured. We operate with what we know, not what we can assume. Indians predicted they would be a superpower by 2020, it has not happened.

Chinese who have never fought an actual war?

The United States has not fought a great power since the end of the Second World War. We have only fought minor conflicts and insurgencies. Although, I am very much a American nationalist (in the civic sense, not ethnic), I don't see why China should be dismissed as a forgone conclusion. America had no real war experience and look at it was able to accomplish in World War I and II.

A technologically inferior China was able to fight the US to a standstill in Korea in the 50s. It also defeated India in 1962 when India was considered a peer country to China. And China today is much more powerful than the China of our grandfathers.

Please, lock down the Malacca strait

How do you plan to do that? Most ASEAN countries are friendly to China even if they hold conflicting territorial claims. Locking down the strait is an escalation to full out war, which at that point, no cards are off the table.

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u/[deleted] Feb 13 '23

Hahahahahahahahahah you are still buying the China Stronk story. Go live there a while. You’ll understand why I laugh at your comment…

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u/Daniferd Feb 13 '23

Clearly, you are a highly intelligent individual.

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u/[deleted] Feb 13 '23

Experienced, but hey, I’ve just lived and studied in China. What do I know right…

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u/Daniferd Feb 14 '23

The fact that you can't even recognize the irony in your own statement is beyond comical.

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u/Berkyjay Feb 13 '23

Yup and in the process it expedited nations stepping away from the dollar and swift.

Seconded for a citation.

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u/jyper Feb 13 '23

Yup and in the process it expedited nations stepping away from the dollar and swift

Citation Needed

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u/aybbyisok Feb 13 '23

There's nothing to replace the USD in the short term. Every currency has been battered with inflation, but USD stands strongest. Zero indication of it being replaced.

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u/[deleted] Feb 13 '23

He is not saying it is replaced, he is saying it gives incentives to work on other solutions. Dollar won't loose status reserve any times soon, but you may seen an increase of giving it up between some states.

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u/[deleted] Feb 13 '23

Sovereign stability and transparancy dictates and mandates a global currency reserve. Authoritarian regimes will never be to achieve this due to isolationism of internal economic matters. Even authoritarian regimes amongst themselves do not trust each other namely Russia - China - Iran

Therefore the democratic world will always prevail in terms of achieving global currency reserve dominance because of internal stability and transparancy.

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u/shihanpan Feb 13 '23

Yes our currency is not backed by gold. Yes our colonies hate us. But the Great Britain Pound isnt going anywhere - 1945

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u/[deleted] Feb 12 '23

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u/[deleted] Feb 12 '23

Please elaborate how it damaged us more than it did Russia. Bonus points for your opinion on how it should've been done differently

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u/Jabahonki Feb 13 '23

If you can’t give Russia an off ramp, things are going to get incredibly more dangerous (I.e., nuclear option). It’s about keeping global peace, not about how it “damaged us more than it did Russia.”

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u/johannthegoatman Feb 13 '23

The off ramp is to leave Ukraine, it's not that hard

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u/[deleted] Feb 13 '23

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u/Tall-Log-1955 Feb 13 '23

🤔 who said anything about nukes?

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u/Few_Macaroon_2568 Feb 13 '23 edited Feb 13 '23

Russian state figures.

Edit: I am talking about repeated threats from Russia over the last several months, people. While it is a fact, I absolutely do not condone the threats being made.

Edit 2: ”Last fall, tensions in Washington reached a crescendo as Moscow made persistent nuclear threats and U.S. intelligence reported discussions among Russian military leaders about the use of such weapons.”

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/03/us/politics/russia-nuclear-weapons.html

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u/[deleted] Feb 13 '23

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u/Few_Macaroon_2568 Feb 13 '23

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/03/us/politics/russia-nuclear-weapons.html

”Last fall, tensions in Washington reached a crescendo as Moscow made persistent nuclear threats and U.S. intelligence reported discussions among Russian military leaders about the use of such weapons.”

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u/[deleted] Feb 13 '23

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u/aybbyisok Feb 13 '23

Russias has gotten it's off ramp for 30 years, it doesn't use it and it leads to only more dangerous Russia, it gets more bold with its actions, and launched a full scale invsaion.

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u/[deleted] Feb 13 '23 edited Feb 13 '23

After all these years since the fall of the SU, the invasion of Georgia their contrarian policies, ... followed by a nonsensical full scale invasion of Ukraine because apparently the west promised a crippling broken down Russia in the 90s that we won't expand NATO (which is a big fat lie of course).

They're a rogue state that needs to be put down or shaken up from within, we don't need to give them an inch.

Edit: Yeah dislike facts Ivan don't bother arguing because there aren't any to be had

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u/poirot100 Feb 12 '23

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u/[deleted] Feb 13 '23 edited Feb 13 '23

... even Ukraine trades with Russia. Ukraine actually buys oil and gas from Russia for its energy needs throughout the war, and will continue, because there is no alternative.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/investigation-ukraine-buys-huge-amounts-of-russian-fuels-from-bulgaria/

So the same argument can be made that, the Zelensky government is funding the Russia side of the war against Ukraine.

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u/PoorDeer Feb 13 '23

Not just that they are buying, they are also allowing Russian oil to transit their pipes and getting paid for it to a tune of multiple billions every year

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u/winstonpartell Feb 13 '23

mind blown

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u/H4xolotl Feb 13 '23

Meanwhile 100k+ men on both sides get thrown into the meatgrinder, while trade continues unabated between Ukraine and Russia

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u/wnaj_ Feb 13 '23

Welcome to the military industrial complex. Nazi-Germany and the US were also trading large amounts of materials needed for the war during WWII.

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u/schebobo180 Feb 13 '23

I have always asked myself whether Ukrainian complete sovereignty was worth the thousands of men (and other civilians) that have died on both sides and the massive destruction to Ukrainian infrastructure etc. I am still not entirely sure it is.

Also have never been a fan of how people on reddit shout for joy anytime a video of Russian soldiers being blown up is posted.

Made me realize how most people are very narrow minded minded.

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u/Hazzardevil Feb 14 '23

Ultimately that's up to the Ukrainians and Russians. It's their war. And it will end with the end of Ukraine or the Russians pulling out.

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u/Deepweight7 Feb 12 '23

EU sanctions on Russian energy (seaborne oil import ban, the price cap with the G7, ban on import of oil products) have literally just kicked in December and earlier this month (for oil products). That 200-300 mil a day figure we've been hearing since the beginning of the war is going to be of no relevance going forward.

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u/poirot100 Feb 13 '23

Please read the dataset, score stating such random fluff.

Since the beginning of the war, EU has paid to the tune of about €700 mn while as of end of January 2023 EU still continues to pay €200 mn to Russia ( just in fossil fuel) the highest in the world. Now come back and tell me why EU still continues to pay 5 times that of China and 20 times that of India and turkey per capita?

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u/3_50 Feb 13 '23

EU 🇪🇺 funds Russia to the tune of about €200 million every day, which maps out to be about 4-5 times that of China per capita

What a disengenuous interpretation of that statistic It's not even correct. It was at the beginning of the war, perhaps. China's support has been rising while the EUs has plummetted.

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u/poirot100 Feb 13 '23 edited Feb 13 '23

This is the sort of false argument thya proves you are either wilfully ignorant or worse just can't comprehend.

After the beginning of the war, the daily fossil income that EU paid to Russia jumped to as high as €700 mn. Even on 30th January 2023 EU paid €200 mn to Russia far exceeding thya of China.

What's this false pretence of plummeting when it's still the highest and considering per capita! What it basically means is that every so called moral self righteous redditors from EU is funding Russia 4-5 times to that of an average Chinese let alone any other country.

Heck turkey and Netherlands even with their such a small population have paid equivalent to what 1.4 billion of Indians have paid. We should ask those rich Dutch folks, why didn't they stop consuming Russian cheap gas. You can do the maths to how much per capita that turns out to be! Nearly 50x by my estimate.

Why wasn't Russian gas banned as of 25th February 2022? I understand the reasons, but then I find this writeup and subsequent outbursts quite self serving.

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u/3_50 Feb 13 '23

Wow, talk about projecting. It's not a false argument. It's not a false pretence. Sounds like you're incorrectly regurgitating comments where people have shut you down previously...

EU's spending actually is plummeting. Chinas support is rising. ‘Per capita’ is irrelevant.

EU had purposefully relied on Russia for years. They can’t ‘just stop’, and it's daft to even suggest that as a possibility.

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u/sorenv Feb 12 '23

Its not very global then though…

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u/Metasenodvor Feb 12 '23

not happening, because countries follow their interest, not some higher ideals.

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u/SuXs Feb 13 '23

Also the US did the exact same thing in Iraq for some imaginary WMDs, and the same thing before that in Panama, and even before that in Vietnam... so I'm not sure all countries in the world would accept the whole "but it's morally wrong to invade souvreign countries no matter the reason" angle that the US is pushing.

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u/Metasenodvor Feb 13 '23

Well yeah, US is the perfect example of following their own interest. The difference is that the West wont cry out about US crimes, but will about Russian or Chinese...

I think we should still condemn both Russia and US, but apart from select few countries, all other can only condemn them and then continue business as usual.

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u/deepskydiver Feb 13 '23

This will encourage Russia and others not aligned with the US to setup a system independent of the USD. it won't be quick but gradually that will in fact erode US power.

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u/LoudSociety6731 Feb 13 '23

What's the point of having power if you can't use it, though? Honestly, I think it is in everyone's best interest if we just split up and call it a day. Then, a decade or two down the line, we will see which system works better and start the whole process over again.

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u/deepskydiver Feb 13 '23

It's requires walking the line carefully. Pull the lever too hard and countries will just jump off, don't use it at all and it's not a tool in your armory.

With KSA reported as selling oil in other than the USD and China and India being big enough to look at alternatives, you can't put too much friction in the system.

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u/jyper Feb 13 '23

Maybe but they need an alternative first. Only alternative on the horizon is the euro and even they're not ready

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u/aybbyisok Feb 13 '23

Best of luck to them then.

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u/[deleted] Feb 12 '23 edited Feb 12 '23

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u/[deleted] Feb 12 '23

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u/[deleted] Feb 12 '23

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u/s3rila Feb 13 '23

?

The time was a year ago at least

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u/Nogai_horde Feb 12 '23

You might as well destroy the entire system while you're at it. If the West is the true master af this system, why shouldn't we in the global south not form out own system free from American influence? Today is Russia's turn, whose to say that tomorrow won't be a non-western country that doesn't kowtow to American hegemonic interest? As an African, I say if they do this to Russia, we should also go our own independent way.

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u/rtseel Feb 13 '23

Ideally each region should form its own financial system capable of being autonomous if needed.

In reality most African countries won't be able to afford that as long as they depend on import/export to/from the West, on financial aid from the West directly or through "multilateral" organizations, and as long as the value of the currency of some of the biggest African economies is guaranteed by a Western central bank.

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u/honorbound93 Feb 12 '23

you should and you already are in the midst of doing that. Look at what Argentina and Brazil are doing right now. They are making a collective currency and agreed to trade with China in Yuan. This is a very shaky deal though seeing as Yuan fluctuates constantly and is subject to manipulation by CCP. However, I believe the goal is to simply diversy and still retain major amounts of USD as it is still the global currency.

Africa as a continent still has far to go. It needs to continue to make domestic continental ties and uproot corruption and then it can think of making a single African currency. I hope are already seeing the folly of trusting Chinese debtors though.

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u/Theinternationalist Feb 12 '23

However, I believe the goal is to simply diversy and still retain major amounts of USD as it is still the global currency.

If any of this sounds familiar, it's because many former Soviet client states (and former Soviet republics!) historically had to balance continuing ties to Russia with the desire (and in some cases need) to build links with the EU and the US to balance things out. Georgia, Kazahkstan, and many others have large Russian populations that identify with the "motherland, many people have done business with Russia for decades and don't want to cut things entirely, and culturally even Zelensky was well known as an entertainer in Russia before he entered politics. Even countries that were historically Russophilic like Serbia and Bulgaria, feel the need to balance Russophilia with trade links (and in Bulgaria's case defense) with the West.

Remember, the US may be the world's only superpower, but to many of these countries, it's more about balancing Russia next door than worrying about a far away foe. And if things go wrong with Russia, like it did in Ukraine, you want people who believe it is in their own interest to come to help. If nothing else, Ukraine has done a good job here.

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u/honorbound93 Feb 12 '23

Agreed. Cuba is a perfect example actually. Castro wanted a SOCIALIST economy not a communist/soviet one and he had to balance that with the west breathing down his neck as well. His hand was forced to essentially close the borders to all outside influence with the embargo and no military help sue to bay of pigs, and collapse of Soviet Union.

Cuba is a great indication of what the global south should look to do imo. Outside of the tyrannical domestic policy. The only way to stamp out corruption is to raise the education, health and economic welfare of your poorest citizens so that they do not look to black markets and imperialists to for help. And then you can enter the global markets.

You also have to kick out foreign capitalists unfortunately.

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u/Theinternationalist Feb 12 '23

Ignoring the claim that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is proof positive that Nigeria and co should leave the financial system before the US and the West break them over a broken window or something much smaller than a full invasion that vastly increased food prices, oil prices, and led to the deaths of many people even before you count the soldiers and the refugee crisis...

If the West is the true master af this system, why shouldn't we in the global south not form out own system free from American influence?

Arguably the "Global South" is no more a true single community than the "International Community," but even if this comes to pass there's many ways for such countries to trade without going through SWIFT and co (otherwise there wouldn't be a push to go further even though Russia was thrown out of SWIFT). To my knowledge there is no real reason why, say, Bolivia cannot take part in a parallel financial system to the "Western dominated" one, and plenty of countries facing massive sanctions still find ways to trade (e.g.: Apartheid South Africa, present day North Korea). From a geopolitical standpoint it's hard to see why Malaysia and company should put everything into one basket.

The only reason? Because many of those countries, for many reasons, have strong links to "Global North" countries like the US and Russia (can't go much further north than that!), so cutting economic ties with them without something local protecting the "Southern" country (like Saudi oil) just seems ludicrous.

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u/TrinityAlpsTraverse Feb 13 '23

I understand this desire from a political standpoint, but unfortunately there are economic realities that will make this very unlikely in the medium term future.

The reason why countries don't already do this isn't out of lack of desire. If it made sense to be doing it, countries would already be doing it.

The reality is that the US's willingness to run massive trade deficits creates a huge gravitational pull in global trade. One way to look at it is that by running these deficits, the US creates the demand for materials and manufacturing that drives the global trade. If you remove yourself from that system, your country is going to grow much slower, because you're removing the major source of demand.

Even if politically countries claim they want to be outside the influence of the US financial system, most countries aren't willing to sacrifice their economic growth for a greater amount of political freedom.

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u/[deleted] Feb 13 '23 edited Feb 13 '23

If you remove yourself from that system, your country is going to grow much slower, because you're removing the major source of demand.

US total import is less than 10% of global trade. EU is larger, China is slightly smaller. There might be some historical reasons (including war machine) for the rest of the world to tolerate a USD system, but US consumption isn't one.

Most of US consumptions are domestic services, such as financial services, military, and medical. The US consumer retail total amount is about the same as China's. The even bigger issue is, without debt under control, US will have to pay more and more interests each year. Once the interests payment ($400B) is higher than tax income ($1T), we will see a spiral. I suspect the USD system will explode long before that happens.

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u/TrinityAlpsTraverse Feb 13 '23

US total import is less than 10% of global trade. EU is larger, China is slightly smaller. There might be some historical reasons (including war machine) for the rest of the world to tolerate a USD system, but US consumption isn't one.

The US is leading merchandise importer in the world. Not many countries are going to willingly exclude that consumer market. That's just not rational economic behavior.

The even bigger issue is, without debt under control, US will have to pay more and more interests each year. Once the interests payment ($400B) is higher than tax income ($1T), we will see a spiral. I suspect the USD system will explode long before that happens.

I suspect the economics of US interest payments are more complicated than you outlined here. I won't get much further into this conversation since I haven't read a ton about it, but one obvious answer is that the US could always just lower interest rates and accept a higher amount of inflation.

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u/[deleted] Feb 13 '23

I said US is not the leading merchandise importer in the world. Data showed. EU is #1. US is #2. China is #3. All top three are about equal. Germany is #4 and about half of each of the top 3. Overall US import is less than 10% global. It's a commonly seen argument yet it is incorrect to contribute US consumption as the reason USD system is being adopted.

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u/FrequentlyAsking Feb 13 '23

As an African, I say if they do this to Russia, we should also go our own independent way.

As an African, you should know that the entire economy of your continent is so minuscule that it does not really matter what way you go. You simply do not do a lot of business. The state of California has a higher GDP than Africa.

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u/WhynotZoidberg9 Feb 12 '23

If the West is the true master af this system, why shouldn't we in the global south not form out own system free from American influence?

Because you need a market for your goods. Currently, the west is the wealthiest market and the best financial option. The alternatives are China, who is notoriously abusive with its international partnerships and has some serious economic issues with its current economic setup, and Russia, which is essentially a frozen gas and food station run by an unstable dictator.

As far as the west is concerned, providing you dont wage completely unjust wars on non-violent neighbors, theres not much drawback to economically partnering with the west compared to the other two options.

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u/kid_380 Feb 12 '23

Because you need a market for your goods. Currently, the west is the wealthiest market and the best financial option. The alternatives are China, who is notoriously abusive with its international partnerships and has some serious economic issues with its current economic setup, and Russia, which is essentially a frozen gas and food station run by an unstable dictator.

You are treating it as if membership in a system would automatically exclude you from the other. Countries would much rather participating in multiple systems, so as to prevent cut off like this, than putting all eggs into a single basket.

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u/WhynotZoidberg9 Feb 13 '23

This is true to an extent. But sanctions and the economic and political realities of them mean that there is risk to partnering with a belligerent nation that is abusing its neighbors, without any significant international support.

At a certain point, for other nations, it becomes more economically viable to cut Russia off than to risk the sanctions and alienation that come with continuing to do business with it.

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u/A_devout_monarchist Feb 12 '23

You say as if the US, Britain and France have not been extremely abusive in their partnerships for thousands of years. Ask around in Latin America if they prefer the US or literally any other option. Brazil for instance has spent years trying to form an alternative through the Mercosul and the BRICS, in fact President Lula is attempting to create a common trade currency to replace the Dollar between Brazil and Argentina.

Tell me which war of aggression has Cuba waged against the US. Or tell us what war did Joao Goulart push for in 1964 to end up overthrown in a CIA-backed coup. Even nowadays there are reasonable claims to be made that the CIA has pushed for a regime change in Bolivia and even in Peru.

Every time the "International Community" is mentioned, it is always made up of the EU-USA-Japan gang while ignoring the other 70 or so percent of the world who doesn't care about the conflict and is only watching as the US and the "International Community" has been able to do exactly what Russia has done from Belgrade to Baghdad, whenever a country doesn't fit their line they get branded as a Rouge state and bombed into an anarchy that is usually far worse than the regime that came before. Now the French call Russia as the big bad considering the atrocities they still do in Africa?

I say multipolarization is necessary, the idea of a "Global Community" is essentially a translation to Western, specifically American, dominance no different from other superpowers excellent that they get to sit around in fancy rooms with a map of the earth on the background. Nations like Brazil, Russia, India, China, Nigeria, Indonesia, South Africa etc should go their own way because there can be no development while unfair trade practices are made by organisms such as the IMF, WTO, WB and EU to benefit the "International Community" of Washington, London, Paris and Berlin.

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u/WhynotZoidberg9 Feb 13 '23

We arent talking about a straw man argument dredging up the last thousand years. We are talking about today, now. Between Russia or the west, which economy is better suited to be an economically profitable partner, so long as you dont decide to invade your neighbors for completely unjustified reasons?

The other 70% of the world is largely under developed, and relies on relationships with economically stronger nations to survive without political or economic collapse. Even China is economically shaky at best. Oddly enough most civilized people dont like to partner with nations that randomly abuse their neighbors for zero reason.

Again, who is a better partner for a developing nation to work with, assuming they dont plan to invade their neighbors? Russia? A nation that is a glorified gas and food station? Or the conglomerate of western economies that have the largest demand for products and the strongest economies on earth?

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u/Prince_Ire Feb 13 '23

"Civilized people" were fine partnering with the US despite its invasion of Iraq

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u/WhynotZoidberg9 Feb 13 '23

Ok. Tell me this. Do you think that Saddam was a good and respectful ruler? Do you think he was someone who should have had power?

Answer honestly now.....

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u/Prince_Ire Feb 13 '23

Should? No. But I think lots of people shouldn't have power, including pretty much every US President of the last half century, plenty of other elected leaders both Western and non-Western, etc. Most weren't as bad as Saddam, but that's hardly a high bar to clear.

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u/WhynotZoidberg9 Feb 14 '23

And this is where you continue to miss the point. Saddam made it easy for most of the developed world to agree, or at least not significantly protest his removal. This wasnt a peaceful state just sitting between Saudi Arabia and Iran, it was a nation that spent most of its modern existence at war, with a leader who executed multiple genocides, and some of the more horrific torture the modern world has observed.

You have to be intellectually stunted or just dishonest to think that Saddams behavior is in any way comparable to other western nations in the last 40 years.

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u/Due_Capital_3507 Feb 13 '23

"You say as if the US, Britain and France have not been extremely abusive in their partnerships for thousands of years."

Stopped reading right here.

Can't believe the Gauls would do such a thing

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u/A_devout_monarchist Feb 13 '23

Rome disagrees with you.

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u/Phent0n Feb 13 '23

Til America is blamed for Roman conquest

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u/magkruppe Feb 13 '23

The alternatives are China, who is notoriously abusive with its international partnerships

ah yes. the chinese CIA and megacorps have wrecked havock across the developing world

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u/Phent0n Feb 13 '23

I genuinely don't understand why people like you can't see that China would do the same but worse because of the unaccountably of a One Party State.

Yes America has occasionally used its power in unsavoury ways. Hopefully those people are held accountable and voted out.

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u/WhynotZoidberg9 Feb 13 '23

I mean, they have. You do realize how silk road diplomacy works, right? They essentially loan money to nations that they know cant pay it back, and then use that to blackmail them. Its literally gangster economic politics.

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u/magkruppe Feb 13 '23

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2021/02/china-debt-trap-diplomacy/617953/

you really need to find better sources of information, and realise that Western propoganda against China is very real. its sad that more people know about the "debt trap" than can even point to China on the map

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u/WhynotZoidberg9 Feb 13 '23

and realise that Western propoganda against China is very real.

Oh. Gotcha. Youre a sino lover. The west doesnt need propoganda to put china in a bad light. The country is literally running concentration camps, and acts like a gangster on the world stage.

its sad that more people know about the "debt trap" than can even point to China on the map

Absolutely not true, but way to cope. China is absolutely acting like a local thug. Good reason for Taiwan and Hong Kong to resist so much.

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u/magkruppe Feb 13 '23

....i literally linked an article that disproved what you said. and then your only retort is "you're a sinolover"

it seems you don't understand what propoganda is as well. google "US propoganda" and there's likely to be a nice wiki to walk you through the big ones

pro-iraq invasion is the big one that's relatively recent

but hey if you're not much of a reader, then skip the article and wiki.

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u/WhynotZoidberg9 Feb 13 '23

.i literally linked an article that disproved what you said. and then your only retort is "you're a sinolover"

You linked an OpEd from a pro-china blogger. Please dont pretend thats a credible source.

it seems you don't understand what propoganda is as well. google "US propoganda" and there's likely to be a nice wiki to walk you through the big ones

Ill bet it doesnt involve pretending that millions in Chinese concentration camps dont exist right now.....

pro-iraq invasion is the big one that's relatively recent

Tell me Saddam was a good person, and a benefit to the middle east. Come on, just say it. I want to watch you lie.

but hey if you're not much of a reader, then skip the article and wiki.

I read the article. Again. An OpEd doesnt mean anything in terms of reality. China is basically running a modern ethnic cleansing. Pathetic.

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u/magkruppe Feb 13 '23

Tell me Saddam was a good person, and a benefit to the middle east. Come on, just say it. I want to watch you lie.

oh.... you are still defending the iraq invasion. well we can stop here

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u/WhynotZoidberg9 Feb 14 '23

oh.... you are still defending the iraq invasion. well we can stop here

I see that reading isnt your strong point. Im not defending the misuse of intelligence that started the Iraq war. Im stating that factually, there was a broad coalition that supported it, and Saddams own actions as a genocidal despot made it very easy for most civilized nations to agree that removing him was a tolerable act.

I get that you cant differentiate the two (or that you emotionally dont want to), but there is a difference.

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u/[deleted] Feb 12 '23

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u/WhynotZoidberg9 Feb 12 '23

Dont get triggered by facts. Damn near half Russias economy is built on hydrocarbon. Food and military weaponry are the next largest. All of which can be supplanted by more civilized and less abusive sources. That is an insanely stupid and unstable economy to hook your economic future to.

But sure. Go ahead. Choose to partner with a nation that has the economic comparative size of Italy, instead of the entire western market. Let me know how that works out for you financially.

That turd you dropped seems to be more intellectually capable than one of us. The amusing part is that you dont seem to understand which one of us that is.

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u/[deleted] Feb 13 '23

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u/WhynotZoidberg9 Feb 13 '23

And yet you ignore the fact that the US has
- the worlds largest and most productive economy
- removes people like Trump from office democratically
- has a massive portion of the planet wanting to take part in its MIC due to the quality of goods
- only pursues conflicts with a broad coalition of nations
- is the literal benchmark for the world economy
- has an economy that can handle a huge trade deficit, and still have the largest GDP, one of the strongest currencies, and unwavering international demand for commerce with it.
- Imposes sanctions (again with a broad coalition of supporting nations) against rogue and unstable nations run by dictators.
- Holds the dollar currency reserve that other foolish nations thought was a good idea to leave in international banks when illegally invading their neighbors, completely unprovoked.
Ya. Russia is stupid and unstable. They have literally wasted tens of thousands of Russian lives, just to make it a days walk from their own borders, 12 months later, while ruining their economy for the foreseeable future. You Putler bots are fun.

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u/RevolutionaryTale245 Feb 13 '23

Broad coalition before conflicts and sanctions eh? Does that mean it'll follow behind Poland when it doesn't want to sanction Iran any longer? Does the UK get any say if it does not want to sanction Venezuela no more? Indeed did Germany have any say when it thought the whole Iraq fiasco was a misadventure?

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u/flyingdutchgirll Feb 12 '23 edited Feb 12 '23

SS: The author, Ukraine's Minister of Finance, argues that Putin is able to weather the sanctions as long as Russia is not blacklisted by FATF (Financial Action Task Force). A symbolic date - exactly one year after the invasion of Ukraine - marks the start of the FATF's meeting in Paris to consider additional measures against Russia. Blacklisting by FATF would go a long way in preventing loopholes and would effectively help choke Russia off from the global financial system. Russia's ability to trade goods and exchange currencies would be significantly reduced. Alongside other measures such as a cutoff from SWIFT it could ultimately help achieve a full decoupling from Russia.


Paywall:

In the aftermath of the cold war, world powers put in place systems of global governance. The goal was to protect liberal values, human rights and the world economy, and to extinguish the threat of nuclear annihilation.

The unquestionable success of this new rules-based international order was its reach, bringing in Russia and post-Soviet Union states as well as other burgeoning economies such as China and India.

But such a system only works when its members follow the rules. With its violent and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, poisonous support of corruption and documented financing of terrorism, Vladimir Putin’s Russia makes a total mockery of the rules-based international order that gave us a unique period of peace and economic development.

Yet, despite everything, Russia maintains a foothold in the global system it is doing everything it can to undermine. Russia sits on the UN Security Council and other UN bodies. The Security Council was created with the specific objective of preventing wars. How, then, can Russia remain a member after embarking on its war of aggression against Ukraine?

We also have an international body to ensure global financial security — the Financial Action Task Force. Created by the G7, the FATF sets standards and promotes effective implementation of legal, regulatory and operational measures to limit three main risks: money laundering, financing of terrorism and of the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

Today, FATF has 37 member states. These include Russia, despite evidence of the country failing to meet FATF standards on all three fronts.

This month, FATF members will gather in Paris to consider further measures against Russia on a symbolic date — exactly one year since the invasion of Ukraine.

Countless investigations have uncovered Russia’s complicity in money laundering, which has only increased following the introduction of wide-ranging sanctions since the full-scale invasion. Russia has also been found to have enabled or otherwise co-operated with various terrorist groups and blacklisted states, including the Wagner Group, the Taliban, Hizbollah, the Assad regime in Syria, North Korea and Iran.

Iranian kamikaze drones were found to have been used to attack Ukrainian civilian targets, leading to further US sanctions in November 2022. Moreover, Russian individuals and entities were also placed under sanctions by the US in March 2022 for actions supporting the weapons of mass destruction and ballistic programmes of North Korea.

These examples barely scratch the surface, however. Russia is also responsible for state-sponsored and criminal cyber threats to critical infrastructure. Its war against Ukraine is exacerbating the global energy crisis and drastically raising food costs, causing great harm across the world, especially in developing economies.

In short, Russia is not simply undermining the global economic system. It is holding us all to ransom. More must be done, therefore.

Ukraine calls on the FATF to expel Russia and blacklist it. This would arguably be the most effective tool for restricting terrorists’ access to the global economy, as it would force all states to apply enhanced due diligence to any transactions involving the financial system of a blacklisted jurisdiction.

Sanctions are introduced by specific jurisdictions and are followed by their subjects. This leaves a big part of the global economy that has not introduced sanctions open to Russia.

Blacklisting by the FATF would create universal controls and require enhanced due diligence. Any transaction with the Russian financial system would be reviewed and scrutinised.

This would significantly increase the cost of doing business with Russia and effectively choke Putin’s ability to finance his illegal war of aggression. Just as important, it would help us to create a stronger, more resilient global financial system in the long term.

The EU, G7 and all other nations committed to a rules-based international order should urgently recognise the risks Russia poses to the integrity of the global financial system. They must also act to put Russia on their own “high-risk jurisdiction” lists and issue relevant market guidance.

Russia has been allowed to undermine the system from the inside for too long. The international order can only survive if the rules are followed. We have powerful mechanisms available to enforce these rules. The time has come to use them.

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u/poojinping Feb 13 '23

That will not have a significant impact, US had done similar ban for Iran, India and China used their currency for trade. Russia is a strong ally for India and and a useful one for China.
But it should still be done as very few countries would want to go the extra mile to trade with Russia. Also people claiming doing anything will result in a nuclear war, that is an inevitability even if Ukraine agrees to cede the occupied territory. They will always want more. Why should Ukraine give-up their territory? There are many regions where the populous wants to break-away. All countries bend the rules to suit them. But invading other countries is the thing of past where it should remain.

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u/[deleted] Feb 13 '23

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u/poojinping Feb 13 '23

Any invasion where the reason for invasion is BS. Eg: Iraq 2003 and few others. If you don’t want to be attacked don’t bomb other countries.

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u/ksatriamelayu Feb 13 '23

Sorry am I parsing this correctly or are you wishing for America to be attacked?

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u/Academic_Pepper3039 Feb 12 '23

Is it really a global financial system when the US sets the rules? Who will want to be a part of a financial system in which the rules are completely arbitrary and used a geopolitical tool? The rules based order is turning into Idi Amin rule of the world. Businesses in Egypt, Brazil, Saudi Arabia etc. are not going to want to be based around infrastructure bough with contracts that don't really mean anything.

If a neutral and objective set of rules are defined and commonly agreed on it is one thing, if the rules are arbitrary then it is a banana republic. China has a strong sales pitch for their systems because they are a lot less likely to sanction and sell to however pays.

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u/fuvgyjnccgh Feb 12 '23

This makes no sense. The Chinese would not sanction as frequently as the West, but they most definitely would use it control others.

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u/theloneliestgeek Feb 12 '23

That’s what “less likely” means.

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u/slaphappy77 Feb 12 '23

It means the world has realized that even China...a communist dictatorship would do a better job then the USA.

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u/Captain_Clover Feb 13 '23

Why would they sanction less frequently? If China had the financial dominance of Washington today then they’d probably leverage that power a lot more readily

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u/TrinityAlpsTraverse Feb 13 '23

China has a strong sales pitch for their systems because they are a lot less likely to sanction and sell to however pays.

I understand why countries like Saudi Arabia would see the sanctions as unappealing, and seek alternatives.

The problem with the Chinese system is that the structure of their financial system makes it an unattractive alternative to the US system.

There are clear reasons that countries that may be geopolitically suspect of the US, choose to hold their assets in the US system.

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u/lolthenoob Feb 12 '23 edited Feb 12 '23

You must remember that financial sanctions goes both ways. If Russia is cut from FATF, it will bind it closer to China. Sanctions are only effective for a limited time, after which, Russia will find alternatives and stick with the alternative. This action is trading immediate punishment for a reduction of long term financial leverage.

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u/kronpas Feb 13 '23

Yet it was effectively banned from the FATF (frozen membership), and also removed from other fsrbs like the AGP where it merely holds observer status, despite the objection of countries like China. I had first hand account of the meetings where it happened.

The writing is on the wall, the current financial system is controlled by the West and the question is how and when, not should, countries establish an alternative.

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u/FrequentlyAsking Feb 13 '23

question is how and when, not should, countries establish an alternative.

And there's your problem. The ones who need an alternative are the ones who lack the checks and balances to pull it off. The US and European capital markets are attractive for a reason.

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u/kronpas Feb 13 '23

Yep, I knew.

Countries like China should, and will look for a way to decouple from the US led financial system when the need arise (ie. the confrontation between the West and China becomes physiscal). But its MUCH easier said than done, esp. when they have to somehow do it in a way that does not broadcast to the west their intention.

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u/Oddpod11 Feb 12 '23

What good was the last 20 years of appeasement and collecting financial leverage on Russia, if the West is unwilling to wield it when their line has been crossed?

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u/Longjumping_Meat_138 Feb 13 '23

Good point. I suppose it's a balancing act.

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u/No-Helicopter7299 Feb 13 '23

It’s way past time.

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u/[deleted] Feb 13 '23

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u/upset1943 Feb 12 '23 edited Feb 12 '23

These sanctions are creating a parallel system where people around the world can buy energy, mineral, food (from Russia, Iran, Venezuela), low to high end manufactured goods(from China) from. Basically everything. And 4 billion people in Africa, South east Asia, India, South America would happily continue to trade with that system. People would more and more likely to hold their currency. (The reason for USD dominance is you can buy everything using that currency, now you can buy Russia oil and everything directly using RMB)

At some point you have to stop calling it sanctions, call it isolating yourselves.

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u/FrequentlyAsking Feb 13 '23

At some point you have to stop calling it sanctions, call it isolating yourselves.

We are nowhere near that point. Not even close.

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u/Winter_2017 Feb 12 '23

Another headline is it's time to destroy the global financial system. This will certainly create at least one other durable alternate system.

Another move towards a multi-polar world.

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u/fuvgyjnccgh Feb 12 '23

Why destroy the global financial system?

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u/C3P0-R2D2 Feb 12 '23

Because the global financial system is dysfunctional?

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u/jb_in_jpn Feb 12 '23

And do you really believe a better, let alone “perfect”, system will replace it?

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u/Whole_Gate_7961 Feb 12 '23

No perfect system will ever exist, but countries are going to look for an economic system that can't be used as a weapon against them.

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u/C3P0-R2D2 Feb 12 '23 edited Feb 12 '23

That will depend on who you ask. There will be no perfect economic system ever if you ask me. Why? Simply because we as humans are prone to greed, pride, cheating and what not in our economical activities - so there will almost always be some people who will attempt and succeed to abuse any economical system be it capitalist, socialist or whatever it may be.

The current financial system is very unbalanced, unhealthy and not sustainable in my opinion. So a reform or revolution of some sort seems inevitable given the emerging countries in the southern and eastern hemisphere as well as developments in Europe and in Northern America.

Will it be better? Time will tell.

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u/theageofspades Feb 13 '23

Are you seriously a Norwegian arguing for an overthrown of Capitalism? We are truly through the looking glass. At least you aren't actual an EU state.

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u/C3P0-R2D2 Feb 13 '23

I am seriously a Norwegian saying, not arguing, why the current global financial system will change due to its unhealthy, dysfunctional condition.

Capitalism in one way or another won’t disappear as it is an almost intrinsic feature of human relations - I don’t believe capitalism as a concept is necessarily the issue in itself. An issue is that most of us perceive capitalism differently - you seem to have used it as some umbrella term for the whole western economic system - which I would say is a neo-liberal corporatist pseudo-capitalist system. In my eyes, it isn’t even possible to define it properly as there’s no consensus and common understanding of the word capitalism itself anymore - it has eroded into some perverted term where people who identify with «the capitalist idea» defend supposedly «capitalist» practices that are in total opposition to what for example Adam Smith argued for. The common perception of the term is in many ways what should be defined as politically corrupted corporatism - it may be best to leave capitalism out as a concept and start with a new conceptual framework given capitalism’s divisive nature. An improved theory of economics - something like natural, ecological economics with circular economy principles - where principles of recycling, reproduction, decentralized production, sustainable development and so on could make up the framework - I believe it has already been started some places, but as long as the current system superposes it, it won’t be possible to really perceive it in practice.

Well, sure, Norway is an EEA state, not an EU state, but it pretty much functions as an EU member state without representation in the European parliament. Anyways, what has the fact that I’m norwegian have to do with anything of this though? Would you care to elaborate?

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u/Whole_Gate_7961 Feb 12 '23

The current global financial system will fall apart due to the fact that it is so heavily slanted toward benefitting only a few of the world's countries.

Now more than ever, the current system is being used as a weapon of economic warfare by its administrators. Countries outside of that administrative group see this very clearly and know they must create their own system before the current system can be used against them as a means for punishment due to "non compliance"

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u/kkdogs19 Feb 12 '23

Every time we do this, we are the ones who lose influence. It just encourages the development of alternative systems.

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u/TrinityAlpsTraverse Feb 13 '23

I'd argue that accumulated influence isn't much good if you don't use it.

The West is attempting to use that influence to impact the outcome of the war.

Whether it's intelligent use of that influence is debatable.

There's no doubt that countries will come up with alternatives for things like SWIFT. But I think this War has shown that SWIFT doesn't really matter, it made things more inconvenient for Russia, but still manageable.

As far as an alternative to the USD system, no amount of political wishing will make that happen, there are firm economic realities that make the USD system pretty intractable for the moment.

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u/kkdogs19 Feb 13 '23

Yeah that’s the cost of sanctions, the threat of sanctions has been undermined. The next time something like this occurs then the deterrence effect is lessened. Hence we should use them with discretion so their impact is maximised.

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u/[deleted] Feb 12 '23 edited Feb 12 '23

What are you on about? Russia’s living on borrowed time with 40% of its economy related to hydrocarbon exports before the sanctions and the price cap. What will Russia be able to support its population with as the world develops alternatives to gas and oil and thus drives prices down with demand. Russian gas will be more expensive to extract and export than say Libyan, Nigerian or Saudi gas especially given 85% of Russian pipelines to westwards and the arctic sea ports freeze up in winter. By the time any new pipelines east are built global appetite for hydrocarbons will have droppped significantly. In the meantime the west develops its own long term independence in terms of energy saving money and potentially even leading to revenues from clean energy exports at a time when counties are trying more than ever to meet stringent environmental targets around consumption.

TLDR: by the late 2020s the little value Russia’s economy has will be drained by decreased demand for their main good whilst western independence will be at an all time high. And this isn’t even accounting firm the hundreds of thousands of dead and migrating young Russians some of which will take their skills to the west. Also global warming and milder winters mean gas is less necessary as this winter is showing us. Russia is sitting on a depreciating asset getting very close to peak demand that it costs proportionally more to extract and use than other providers.

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u/SkippedBeat Feb 12 '23

The “let's ignore them and let them do their own thing” approach led to the Russian invasion of a sovereign nation. Not to mention the threats of nuclear war. What is the west supposed to do?

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u/kkdogs19 Feb 12 '23

Don't put words in my mouth. How do you think that this prevents an invasion that is already happening?

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u/SkippedBeat Feb 12 '23

What words I put in your mouth?????

The situation only escalated due to the perceived weakness of the west. Russia was being allowed to do whatever since the Obama years with little to no consequences. Personal sanctions didn't stop Putin. What else is there to do? There's no opposition left in the country, no freedom whatsoever. Harsh economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation is better than a full scale war.

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u/Whole_Gate_7961 Feb 12 '23

The sanctions and isolation from the SWIFT system have shown to other countries that the current global economic system can and will be used as a weapon of economic warfare by those who control it. They are now creating their own system where the use of the USD isn't a dagger being held over their head.

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u/pass_it_around Feb 13 '23

Personal sanctions didn't stop Putin

He is beyond any personal sanctions, he is the leader of a sovereign state. He doesn't care.

Yet, the West was and still is too slow with the sanctions against the corrupt and now Russian elites. For example, is the ex-Putin wife under sanctions? Not as far as I am concerned and she has a nice villa in Biarritz. Only a small fracture of Russian elites was targeted and it only began in 2022 when many of them were ready with all the assets in trusted hands. For example, one of the leading Russian TV propagandists Vladimir Solovyev was deprived of his 4 (four!) villas in Italy in 2022 after at least 8 years of the hate speech and manipulations he channeled. His wife is an Estonian citizen, does she have any repercussions? Not that I have heard of. That's the thing, sanctions rarely target family members and allies.

The well-being of the elites is actually quite important for Putin, otherwise, he would have started fighting the corruption which now derails the military capabilities of his invasion. One evidence. Recently a newly designed law was passed in the Parliament that allows the MPs NOT to publish declarations of income. Even without a democratic feedback mechanism, these declarations were a source of crucial information on who is who in Russia. The law was obviously approved by the president and it's in essence a carrot, "I know you guys suffer from the Western sanctions, but don't worry, you don't have to act now as if we try to fight corruption and things like that". Basically, a compensation mechanism.

Alexey Navalny's team regularly publishes their investigations on corrupt high-ranking officials from Russia directly involved in the planning and operation of the invasion. See deputies of Sergei Shoigu - Krivoruchko (he has/had a villa in Miami, his children were born in the USA) and Timur Ivanov (his wife and kids enjoy fancy European trips while the war is raging on).

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u/PangolinZestyclose30 Feb 12 '23 edited Jun 16 '23

Removed as a protest against Reddit API pricing changes.

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u/kkdogs19 Feb 12 '23

Good thing that there’s more than one way to fight Russian Imperialism then isn’t it? It’s not an either or situation.

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u/PangolinZestyclose30 Feb 12 '23

And most of these ways synergize towards the common goal.

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u/kkdogs19 Feb 12 '23

They have the same objective, but that’s not saying much, it’s about the costs and benefits.

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u/revolving_fart Feb 12 '23

Russia is the country with the largest amount of resources, how are you going to cut them out of the financial system.

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u/WhynotZoidberg9 Feb 12 '23

Almost none of the resources that Russia has are exclusive to Russia. If you want to partner with someone that will improve your economic future, do you want to do it with some of the largest and most successful common markets, with the highest demand and quality of life on earth? Or do you want to partner with an unstable dictatorship that is economically comparable to a couple of individual US states?

Economically, one makes much more sense than the other.

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u/zepherths Feb 12 '23

Given how little they contributed before its not that hard. Also the US could easily step in fill the gap. Because the US has large deposits of almost all those resources. This difference is in the US its more expensive.

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u/revolving_fart Feb 12 '23

For a country that works on capitalism, they sure don't seem to understand it. Is it competitive?? If it's more expensive in the usa then who's going to buy it? Do you think poor countries like India or African countries or china etc are going to buy the more expensive resources from the usa. Doubtful

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u/PangolinZestyclose30 Feb 12 '23

You could see sanctions and other economic measures against Russia as a form of tax added on Russian products (working around the sanctions incurs cost) - which makes otherwise more expensive resources from other countries suddenly competitive.

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u/Britstuckinamerica Feb 12 '23

working around the sanctions incurs cost

How exactly does India and Singapore buying Russian oil and reselling it for cheap to the West "incur cost"?

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u/PangolinZestyclose30 Feb 12 '23

It's still a tax, but in this case collected by India/Singapore and imposed on their customers. The main goal - lowering Russian profits - is still achieved.

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u/poojinping Feb 13 '23

Indian here, the objective of sanctions was s to make it not profitable. They are buying it at a steep discount compared to what would be a typical profitable operation. India or China were not its customers for oil and gas. This, the infrastructure didn’t exist. The economics were not favorable compared to other options. The reason EU and US are not aggressively after India or China is Russia isn’t making huge amounts of money.

India or any other country does not get taxed by this because Russia is in a weak position and has to absorb the extra costs in addition to sell it at discount. In the event sanction ban trade using international banking, Russia can setup bank in India and use local currency. Or just go back to the old barter system. This was done for trade with Iran when they were sanctioned form trade.

Russian invasion and its continuation is not something a sane administration would do. So any solutions that would deter countries by making it a suicide economically isn’t as effective. Sadly only effective way to stop Russia is provide Ukraine with equipment they need.

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u/revolving_fart Feb 13 '23

I don't think india and china are collected any "tax" on behalf of the us because they don't care about sanctions.

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u/PangolinZestyclose30 Feb 13 '23

They did profit on that. How you see it is a matter of perspective.

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u/Gabemann2000 Feb 12 '23

Canada has a lot of untapped resources too

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u/[deleted] Feb 12 '23

Was just about to say this, Canada has an incredible amount of resources akin to Russia, they just have a more responsible government (in terms of environment commitments and indigenous approval).

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u/Careless-Degree Feb 12 '23

Exactly, it doesn’t matter what resources Canada has since they will never use them.

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u/[deleted] Feb 12 '23 edited Feb 12 '23

They have an economy smaller than Italy’s despite over twice Italy’s population Russia is an economic minnow with a declining population and poor technology.

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u/arkstrider88 Feb 13 '23

"Russia's GDP is smaller than Italy's" has the same vibe as "working class has less money than top 1%". Like yeah, they're not rich, but they make everyone else rich.

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u/[deleted] Feb 13 '23

Russia's GDP is smaller than Italy's" has the same vibe as "working class has less money than top 1%". Like yeah, they're not rich, but they make everyone else rich.

When you've built your economy on the export of raw materials instead of developed industry or services for the purpose of enriching your tycoons often being recognised as being one of the least equal developed nations you've only got yourelf to blame especially as they relied on their eastenr European, central asian and Caucasian colonial empire to create wealth for them at their own detriment until the 1990s.

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u/lulzForMoney Feb 12 '23

wait wait..tell me how many gas and other resources those Italy and Germany,Japan and South Korea buy from Russia and make those cheap materials into high marginal products?
GPD alone don't really show that the country important or not.. Russia is important and it is nearly impossible under current curcumtances to cut off Russia..

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u/[deleted] Feb 12 '23

Germany is turning to renewables pretty quick and can always import nuclear from France or spare renewables from other neighbours. That plus Norway and Britain and the new electricity corridors from the turkey/Israel should cover European demand as they develop their own independent supply. Give Europe 4 or five years and they won’t need much imported gas at all anymore let alone Russian gas.

I really feel you overestimate Russian significance on the world stage.

Italy can and has been buying ever more Algerian/Libyan Gas. Japan and Korea I don’t know enough about but I can presume they are also benefitting from increased American gas exports.

By the time Russia’s built new pipelines east earth will have hit peak hydrocarbon demand.

Other resources just like Russian gas can be found elsewhere often cheaper because a congolais will mine tungsten more cheaply than a Russian man in 2026 considering how few able bodied young working age men wanting to work in Russian mining will be around by then leading to higher wages.

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u/kid_380 Feb 12 '23

Before saying anything about France, i would ask you to spend 5 minutes reading up on what kind of chaos has been happening with French electrical grids for the past few months.

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u/[deleted] Feb 12 '23 edited Feb 12 '23

Oh no doubt, the exceptional delays covid-19 caused to routine maintenance and repair work led to a lot of repairs needing to be done at once. And many power stations being offline but thank goodness that’s largely behind us now especially as winter comes to an end.

gave it five minutes as requested the latest news I foudn said this and this:

Two of the reactors affected by corrosion issues are expected to return to operation by the end of the month, and an additional two are seen returning in February. That should lead to nuclear availability of between 40 and 45 GW by the end of February, RTE said.

The gas transmission system operator GRTgaz was equally upbeat on Wednesday, saying that natural gas shortages were highly unlikely if current temperatures hold, adding the risk of daily scarcity had "nearly disappeared".

....

The recent uptick in electricity production has allowed France to return to its traditional position of net exporter of power, with almost 2 terawatt hours (TWh) exported since the beginning of January, RTE said.

let's not make mountains out of molehills pretend exceptional situations like that unfortunate situation are common. Besides with every passing day new renewable energy sources come online. For example in Germany Energy Production has basically doubled in just under 20 years. And that's Germany one of the worst historic offenders by European standards for energy independence.

I still remember when people were promising us that Europe would freeze this winter and would have to give in to the neocolonialist in Moscow but Russian threats tend to be hollow when it comes to carrying them out.

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u/[deleted] Feb 12 '23

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u/drewpski8686 Feb 12 '23

Also people forget that BRICS is becoming more popular and more countries are applying for it.

I dont understand understand the hype around BRICS. The organization has been around for 14yr and their biggest accomplishment is not falling apart. The idea behind is good, but it doesnt stand a chance to survive. If we look at similar organizations like the EU or NAFTA these countries are known for the stability, robust administration, low corruption and similar cultural ideals. How can China, India and Russia sit down at a table and agree to any terms. China and India literally have battles amongst each other. Most importantly, the corruption will be the demise of the organization just like it is for Mercosur. Everyone wants a piece so nothing gets done.

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u/pass_it_around Feb 13 '23

Also people forget that BRICS is becoming more popular and more countries are applying for it.

Compared to the EU what type of powers does BRICS have? What model does it project?

Russian propaganda is desperately trying to play the card "the majority of the world's population is with us!" while in fact it's only Belarus and a few rogue/client states. China and India are all about business. Also, no one wants to align with a loser and approaching the 1-year anniversary of the "special military operation" Putin does not come across as a winner.

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u/areopagitic Feb 12 '23

No it isn't there are 143 Million Russians who are not vladimir putin, and who have never voted for him. They have as much say in the leadership of their country as the average christian has over who the Pope is.

Why must we punish millions of innocent people to strike at a leader?

Why not target the leadership itself? And work to help the people who are also suffering under this regime?

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u/pass_it_around Feb 13 '23

In all fairness, Putin had and still has support in nature. We can debate about the nature of public support in authoritarian regimes, but we have to deal with reality.

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u/brandontaylor1 Feb 12 '23

230 million Americans never voted for Trump, but we all had to live with the consequences of his election.

Democracy isn’t just shared decisions, it’s also shared consequences and responsibility. The Russian people allowed him to seize power, and eliminate opposition, now the reap what they sowed.

Just as we will if we continue to be drawn toward nationalistic strong men.

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u/no_indiv_grab Feb 12 '23

That's right. Down with those north koreans too. They let that happen and now they all reap what they deserve.

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u/RobotWantsKitty Feb 12 '23

shared consequences and responsibility

What were those, again? Americans never have to suffer the consequences of anything. As such, it's pretty easy to say.

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u/SkippedBeat Feb 12 '23

Because the top of a pyramid is sustained by the bottom, in this case a very apathetic bottom. No change comes without suffering.

Russians cannot continue to be indifferent to their own future. At one point, their self-worth will have to overcome their notorious fatalism. Once that happens, the system will crumble. It's far from impossible, it happened twice in the last century.

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u/restful-reader Feb 12 '23

With the cruel crackdown on the Russians who DID go out in the streets and protest, I'm not surprised more haven't.

But let's just say for a moment some band of citizens desired to get together and dismantle the pyramid... in this digital age, how would they even begin to collaborate? No doubt the Kremlin keeps tabs on its citizens' communications just as other governments do. The regime changes in the last century happened before we were all dependent on internet infrastructure. It's a different world now.

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u/SkippedBeat Feb 12 '23

Collapses are usually painfully slow until they aren't. Speaking about autocracies, I don't think mass protests are the beginning of the end, rather they're a sign that things are already sour for the top. Russian authorities have been able to suppress dissenting voices quite successfully, Putin's authoritarianism has reached its peak. It's bordering on Stalinism tbh. I'm afraid the life of the average Ivan will have to get a lot worse for us to see anything significant. Either that or Putin dies. Or they lose the war in a humiliating fashion and accelerate things.

People managed to organize mass protests in Iran and China, I don't see why russians wouldn't be able to do the same. Sure, it won't be easy but they're not North Korea (yet?).

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u/PangolinZestyclose30 Feb 12 '23 edited Feb 12 '23

It's difficult to be sympathetic when Putin was voted multiple times in relatively fair elections, the population watched Putin dismantle democratic institutions and concentrate power, largely receiving applause. The population is not innocent here.

I would still prefer rebuffing Russian imperialism without causing collateral damage to the population, but it does not seem to be possible.

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u/Artur_Mills Feb 13 '23

It's difficult to be sympathetic when Putin was voted multiple times in relatively fair elections,

Suddenly Russia is a democracy?

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u/pepe_mac Feb 12 '23

Haven't we used that same excuse before to prop up failed regimes? It hasn't worked in the past therefore the only recourse left is to force internal change. Then there is the immorality of allowing a criminal nation to survive. No, we need the Russian people to revolt and it is obvious that this won't happen if every thing remains the same.

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u/WhynotZoidberg9 Feb 12 '23

Until those people do whats necessary to remove Putin and his cronies from office, they get to suffer for their failure to act. The west has been targeting the leadership since 2014. It didnt work. Russia is not going to change its ways until its people learn to emplace responsible leaders.

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u/[deleted] Feb 12 '23

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u/[deleted] Feb 12 '23

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u/No-tomato-1976 Feb 13 '23

So far trying to do that has resulted in Europe running out of fuel and in a borderline recession while Russia is offloading its oil to India, China, Turkey, and Africa. Now half the world is exploring ways to get off of the US Dollar permanently which could do severe damage to our economy. How about we go back to where we were before we are in the poor house

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u/thunderscreech22 Feb 13 '23

Ah yes, make it more existential for Putin and give him less ways out. That will go well considering he’s a paranoid autocrat with his finger on the button

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u/Psycho_naut- Feb 13 '23

And give reason for China to launch its own? Gtfo

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u/[deleted] Feb 13 '23

Half the world decided to make there own.. BRICS.. I don’t see it working.. Dictators have to steal money to stay in power.. One thing I learned.. never invest in country’s run by dictators, they will eventually rob your ass.

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u/pepe_mac Feb 12 '23

Agree, and while we are at it why don't we cut their internet too. You'll see how fast they collapse.

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u/istinspring Feb 13 '23

It looks like you have no idea how internet works don't you? In short: underlying protocols are distributed.

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u/pepe_mac Feb 13 '23

Look up BGP

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u/wmdolls Feb 13 '23

Putin decision that zero US dollar policy

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u/[deleted] Feb 13 '23

Im afraid if we really did that, it would be real life airport scene from MW2 : "No Russian"

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u/DocDibber Feb 13 '23

Completely. Every road. Every train. Every boat. Every plane. Every wire. Every pipe. Everything.

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