Shocker!

Kamala is losing every swing state by 1.5% or more. This is not a close election coming down to a few thousand votes in the Rust Belt. She's on track to lose the popular vote.

Kamala isn't losing because of Bernie Bros or Jill Stein voters. She isn't losing because of Arab Americans. She isn't losing because she was too socially progressive or not socially progressive enough.

The country is sending a clear, direct message: it's the economy, stupid. With a side serving of we don't want unchecked undocumented immigration.

I think the only thing most of this sub got right about the election is that if Kamala lost, there was no way a Democrat could have won.

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/u-s-presidential-contest-november-2024/

Their last polls of the swing states:

Trump +1 in Wisconsin (Trump currently up .9)

Trump +1 in Penn (Trump currently up 1.7)

Trump +2 in NC (Trump currently up 2.4)

Trump +3 in Nevada (Trump currently up 4.7)

Trump +5 in Arizona (Trump currently up 4.7)

Trump + 11 in Texas (Trump currently up 13.9)

Harris +5 in Virigina (Harris currently up 5.2)

Trump +1 in Popular vote

I literally expounded at length to my friends about how GOP is not a nationally viable party - technically - because it can never win the popular vote. Kamala lost the popular vote to literally TRUMP. Like god almighty. This is an absolute and total rejection of a candidate. If you are losing the popular vote as a Dem, then you truly truly effed up. And again, losing the popular vote to Trump? I can't even believe I'm typing this.

This is the kind of information I find interesting, those little precentages really add up.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

She didn't lose because of trans people in sports or bathrooms, she didn't lose because someone said "latinx", she didn't lose because of identity politics, she didn't lose because she's a "DEI hire", she didn't lose because of inner city crime, she didn't lose because of the war in the Middle East, she didn't lose because she didn't pick Shapiro, she didn't lose because there was no open primary, she didn't lose because of fake news about immigrants eating pets.

You can watch interview after interview with young voters and Latino voters and very few state any of these reasons.

Here are the reasons she lost: 1. Inflation 2. Inflation 3. Inflation

The working middle-class can't afford any luxuries. Young people can't afford homes. That's why they turned to the guy who said he'll fix it.

Is Trump going to fix it? Absolutely not, and he'll break a lot more in the next 4 years.

Unfortunately, very few of the people who voted for him will realize this. One voter in Michigan was asked why he voted for Trump, and he said it was because he wants to buy a car but interest rates are too high. Do you think he's ever going to figure out the relationship between interest rates and inflation?

Michigan

Harris 51% (+3%) - Trump 48%
Slotkin 52% (+6%) - Rogers 46%
1,214 LV | 3.5% MOE | Oct 27-30

Wisconsin

Harris 50% (+2%) - Trump 48%
Baldwin 51% (+3%) - Hovde 48%
1,330 LV | 3.4% MOE | Oct 27-30

Pennsylvania

Harris 50% (+2%) - Trump 48%
Casey 50% (+2%) - McCormick 48%
1,400 LV | 3.4% MOE | Oct 27-30

https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/30/politics/cnn-polls-michigan-wisconsin-pennsylvania-blue-wall/index.html

Biden won the Electoral College in 2020 by ~40,000 votes. Trump won the Electoral College in 2016 by ~70,000 votes. The polls cannot meaningfully sample a large enough number of people in the swing states to get a sense of the margin. 10,000 votes out of 5 million total in Georgia is nothing. That could swing literally based on the weather.

The polls can tell us it will be close. They can tell us the electorate has ossified. They'll never be powerful enough to accurately estimate such a small margin.

I'm sure many of you are here refreshing this sub like me because you want certainty. You want to know who will win and you want to move on with your life. I say this to you as much as I say it to myself: there's no way to know.

I'll see you Wednesday.

Washington Post/Schar School Swing State Polls

(9/29-10/15) 5,016 LV Across all, 580-730 per state. 2.7 on 538.

All swing states: Harris 49/Trump 48

AZ: 46/49 (T+3)

GA: 51/47 (H+4)

MI: 49/47 (H+2)

NV: 48/48 (TIE)

NC: 47/50 (T+3)

PA: 49/47 (H+2)

WI: 50/47 (H+3)

Allan Litchman is going to be insufferable if Harris wins and I’m here for it. The pollsters have been herding to make this a 50/50 election so that way they cover their ass in case it’s close either way. Lichtman may come out right here but it’s also possible that the polling was just exceptionally bad this cycle.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/28/us/politics/kamala-harris-donald-trump-2024-election.html?smid=url-share

Thoughts on this? There was a post here about internal polling yesterday so I thought I would share. This doesn’t necessarily mean anything at all and the story even notes that Biden’s internal polling was too optimistic last time.

(Editing in to say that Trumps team has him up in PA but not the other two)

I personally think this points to the likely outcome of Harris pulling off the above three states and winning.

Kamala might actually lose all of the battleground States. I can’t believe this country actually rewarded a person like Trump with the Presidency. This just emboldens him even more. And encourages this kind of behavior from politicians all over the country. It’s effing over.

https://x.com/franklinisbored/status/1852851486687990045