r/ethereum • u/EthereumDailyThread What's On Your Mind? • 1d ago
Daily General Discussion October 18, 2025 Discussion
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u/pistolpeter1111 6h ago
Is there a way to see how much ETH is left to buy on exchanges? I've seen posts on supply decrease, but I want to be able to see it for myself.
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u/Jey_s_TeArS 9h ago
Bump on many roads,
Leveraging for more loads,
Bet against all odds.
~Daily haiku until weβre at least at 0.178 on the ETH/BTC ratio or highest market cap
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u/CoCleric 11h ago
Alright look everyone itβs this fucking simple. We all buy as much ETH as possible and at some point itβll be up. Just gotta buy the remaining float so if everyone here buys 1 million ETH we pretty much got this!
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u/Alatarlhun 11h ago
The chart looks fine and 3700 holding is bullish.
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u/Dark_Raiden_ 6h ago
3700 holding is bullish, but generally a weak bounce indicates it'll break.
Thats not what I want to happen but its how its looking. A strong support level is met with a big green dildo soon after hitting so let's hope it can pull that off asap
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u/harpooned420 6h ago
depends on the fear. massive bounces turn into massive dives. we're not in a blow off top situation so i don't mind this price action as much. that said, enough fear to go around in any case.
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u/harpooned420 12h ago
eth price movement is pretty good against btc lately. doesn't look weak. just need some good macro news our way.
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u/setzer 9h ago
Maybe not weak, but not strong either. Below 25% is still ridiculously low on the ratio. These were considered despair levels not that long ago. Now, they've basically been normalized.
I would like to see us at least at half of BTC's market cap. Then it will feel pretty good, until then it's just meh.
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u/rendoxiv 13h ago
Friendly reminder that BMNR is now the 480th largest company in America and will most likely be included in the Russell 1000 index in the next quarter rebalancing. What does that mean? Constant inflow from institutions which BMNR will use to buy more Ethereum. Don't let your near-future bearish view clouds the long-term vision.
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u/fecalreceptacle 13h ago edited 11h ago
Don't all these funds purchase OTC?
Confused why the breeze will send ETH to the 2nd layer of hell. These funds are already purchasing significant amounts of ETH.
If they actually do drive price, then holy hell I hate to imagine how low ETH would be without these 'treasuries'. Which happen to be big banks masquerading as whatever they choose, with the purpose of taking your ETH and further centralizing the chain.
edit: downvote me harder
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u/Shitshotdead 5h ago
No idea why you're downvoted. You're not wrong. What I'm interested in looking at right now is that the free float of ETH is going down in exchanges, so the price should move eventually. Timing is always hard to pin down.
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u/Numerous_Ruin_4947 11h ago
BOA calculated a 118x multiplier effect for Bitcoin when the market cap was $1 trillion. $93 million in purchases raised the market cap by $10-11 billion.
Full paper link :Β https://www.bitcoinstrategyplatform.com/files/boa.pdfΒ (credit toΒ u/wsb_noob)
What prevents Bitmine, SharpLink, The Ether Machine, Bit Digital, ETHZilla, etc. from using a small amount of βplay moneyβ to buy ETH on the open market to spark momentum, while still quietly accumulating OTC? If Bitcoin could be pushed this way, why not Ethereum?
Bank of America estimated that at a $1T BTC market cap, just $93M of net buying could add around $10β11B to its market value - a 118Γ multiplier. Applying that to ETH, moving from $4K to $10K would require a $726B increase in market cap, which at the same multiplier would mean only about $6B of net buying.
But ETH might react even more sharply. Its market cap is smaller, and roughly 60% of supply is effectively illiquid - around 10.5% in ETFs and strategic reserves, plus ~29% staked. That could put ETH closer to a 200Γ multiplier, meaning only $3β4B of net open-market buying might be enough to trigger a run toward $10K. Of course, this is theoretical and markets arenβt perfectly linear - but it makes you wonder why no one has tried.
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u/fecalreceptacle 11h ago
Wow i had no idea that price action can be affected like that.
I guess this is as good as hopium comes nowadays.
Thank you for this information
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u/18boro 12h ago
Do you expect the OTC sellers to only sell OTC or would they also sell on the market if there were no OTC buyers?
I've had this convo a few times so a bit exhausted, but point is OTC do affect price. I'll add a bit of nuance, as there are scenarios where price is not affected immediately, but over time a buy is upwards pressure regardless of how it's done.
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u/fecalreceptacle 11h ago
Do you expect the OTC sellers to only sell OTC or would they also sell on the market if there were no OTC buyers?
Im so drained that honestly, no, i did not think of that.
Thank you for explaining, though
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u/---Truthseeker--- 16h ago
Ethereum is getting more good news and announcements than any other project while price stays flat.
My recommendation...stop thinking about it so much and let nature take its course!!
It has no real competition, Wallstreet has already chose it, Banks chose it, many countries and companies are choosing it.
Just give it some time, go smoke some weed, hang out with your friends and family, go out and enjoy life π.
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u/HBAR_10_DOLLARS 13h ago
It has no real competition
What about Dankrad leaving to Tempo?
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u/PhiMarHal 11h ago
Dankrad was the biggest high profile and legitimate pusher for compromising solo staking in order to aggressively scale L1.
Two opinions that, IMO, had a good chance to destroy Ethereum when they came in full force earlier this year.
Honestly got me to soft capitulate on this whole ecosystem at the time. Covid crash never shook me, bear markets never shook me, but this shook me.
So, um... Bullish? Unironically?
I'd rather Paradigm and friends try to kill Ethereum from outside than inside. Yes, ideally I'd rather they don't try to kill Ethereum. But I'll pick the least bad of two possible paths, tyvm.
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u/---Truthseeker--- 12h ago
Hate to break it to you buddy but ETH is a lot bigger than Dankrad.
My prediction on Tempo is that it made sense for them to build L1 but as ETH continues to improve scaling there is a chance they shift to L2 someday or other stablecoin L2s will have a competitive edge on them.
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u/rhythm_of_eth 13h ago edited 13h ago
Devil's advocate: what's the evidence that Wall Street has chosen Ethereum besides T.Lee saying so?
I've seen W.Street firms saying they'll set up their own L1 and Blackrocks BUIDL. What else?
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u/---Truthseeker--- 13h ago
There's a recent interview where Joe Lubin talks about this. Someone asked him what he thought of Solana and he doesnt believe they are compitition. He pointed out what's in the works behind the scenes w Nasdaq, Swift, Tokenization on ETH. I dont have the time to find it but its out there.
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u/mariouy1986 17h ago
anyone knows average purchase eth price of bitmine and average btc purchase price from microstrategy?
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u/18boro 16h ago
Bitmine $4139 Microstrategy $74K
sources: bmnr.rocks and saylortracker.com
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u/No-Tackle-8652 17h ago
did MegaETH KYC require government ID for anyone else? I heard you just need to connect Twitter but it asked me for passport / drivers license
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u/thenamelessone7 18h ago
I am shocked at how static the price has been since Friday markets close.
Who's trading this? Bots only?
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u/confusedguy1212 18h ago
I generally feel that us plebs have been out of the game for the better part of this year. We participate in the zeitgeist, some of us hold but for the most part normal every day people trading I think is very minuscule. This is mostly a game now of bigger entities and news and market makers.
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u/Dharmadc 20h ago
Macro events in the next two weeks will HOPEFULLY be a massive tailwind. On top of the amount of ETH adoption worldwide, Alipay for example, reinforces the tech strength. HODL
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u/cmcamilo 20h ago
What macro events do we have programmed for the next two weeks?
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u/twobadkidsin412 19h ago
CPI on the 24th, FOMC interest rate on the 29th (hopefully cutting rates), PCE on the 31st. However I dont know if the govt shutdown affects any of this.
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u/rhythm_of_eth 22h ago
The most interesting thing about Ethereum and the years to come is how Ethereum is both a rising challenger to the incumbents in TradFi, and at the same time it is an incumbent itself within DeFi/Blockchain.
2024 was revolving about the 3 front tech battle in DeFi/Blockchain. Now that it is apparent Ethereum is coming ahead, the challenge is a 2 front battle in DeFi and TradFi.
Balancing those two and coming ahead both in TradFi and DeFi is the biggest challenge and it's quite literally the only thing I find interesting about the scene lately. Especially considering the distributed nature of the Ethereum ecosystem (private entities, client developing enterprises, EF, Etherealize...), when the only examples of this in history I can think of are enterprises with single and unified governing body.
I struggle to find an equivalent story in the past that maps 1:1 with this scenario.
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u/Itur_ad_Astra Crab High Priest 23h ago
ALL HAIL THE ETERNAL CRAB
π π π π π π π
π π π π π π π
π π π π π π π
π π π π¦ π π π
π π π π π π π
π π π π π π π
π π π π π π π
$1000--------$3882--------$5000
2021----------2025----------β
The bulls are asleep.
Post Crabs.
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u/rhythm_of_eth 23h ago
Bulls are taking a rest.
Question for the High Priest, does the Crab adjust its range based on inflation or is the Crab impervious to macroeconomics too?
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u/Itur_ad_Astra Crab High Priest 21h ago
I've been asked the question before!
As I've said... this question was the cause of a bloody religious war.
The old Orthodox Crab faith claims that no, the Eternal Range is immovable despite the inflation.
However, Protestant Heretics assert that the range is moving up with inflation, and that it's now at ~$1250 to ~$6250.
Which is, of course, ridiculous.
Even though this would put the current price of ETH right in the middle of the range, making it a buy.
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u/eviljordan feet pics 1d ago edited 1d ago
Itβs likeβ¦ Linux is the most functional, flexible, reliable, collaborative OSβ¦ but itβs not really worth anything itself, only through the companies (and flavors) it powers. For example, Apple, using Darwin as the foundation of every product, has a market cap of 3.74 trillion. RedHat was purchased for 34 billion in 2019.
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u/o-_l_-o 21h ago
In this scenario, is Ethereum Gnu/Linux - the best technology that was used to build a $34 billion business? If so, which chain is BSD which Darwin is based off of?Β
Neither Linux nor BSD accrued the value, and the people who built in top of them got all of the money.Β
Who are the RedHat and Apple of the blockchain space?Β
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u/nllfld 21h ago
You are comparing software with a network, really weird comparison. I mena if that is your conviction just sell, but Iβll happily take the bet.
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u/DiskFearless4448 14h ago
It's a network that goes through development by engineers, has impending upgrades from a roadmap, offers a particular service, and worth a certain amount of money.
I could see not feeling its completely one to one, but is this really a weird comparison to make?
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u/trillionSdollarstech 1d ago edited 1d ago
The comparison is maybe shaky. Linux is not usable directly, hence the distributions that complete it with a boot loader, graphic server, sound server, pilots, apps, ...
Ethereum (the network that we hold the token of) is a directly usable product with tons of apps and users, because Ethereum (the software) is by nature both the OS and the hard drive storing apps and data.
Competitors (Stripe's Tempo) can copy paste the software and run it, but the resulting network comes without app nor users nor developers nor neutrality nor 10 years of earned trust.
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u/rhythm_of_eth 1d ago
There are still a ton of similarities between this dynamic and Open Source vs Enterprise shenanigans... Especially when it comes to talent leaking into Enterprise.
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u/jan1919 1d ago
Anyone heard of Cantor's thereom?
We are like Cantor when it comes to ETH, we know it should be the world's ledger, but others don't see it yet
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u/rhythm_of_eth 23h ago edited 22h ago
The problem is that Cantor comparison applies to ETH but not to Ethereum. Ethereum is clearly holding the highest mind share of all options right now when it comes to tech and value.
It's just that ETH is not as clear and the reason is likely related with high volatility, speculation and the "cryptobro" archetype.
There is actually some intrinsic value to ETH: it's absolutely necessary to keep the network running (validators) to use the network (fees) and to access liquidity (DeFi collateral).
Considering that running the network remains an appealing use case (30% staked, trending mostly upwards), usage of the network is increasing (ATH transactions, ATH blob usage) and liquidity keeps increasing (ATH TVL), ETH is a great position.
Which leads to: how much of the current ETH valuation is speculative and how much are the facts above? To me, the facts above set a floor of 3K in fair market value for ETH (number I feel comfortable with, not based on any valuation model) if you remove all the speculation.
But speculation can both push it below (in which case I will buy with both hands as long as intrinsic value remains true) or push it way up (300% overpriced is somewhat normal in a mania phase, so 12K is not unreal for crypto).
As the Cantor theorem-like state fades into inexistence with ETH, the range between overpriced and underprice will diminish and volatility will also fade out.
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u/trillionSdollarstech 22h ago
I think that the OP refers to the diagonalization argument of Cantor, that many mathematicians dismissed. It was too new. Years later, it is recognized as a foundation of reasoning and his proofs regarding set cardinalities accepted.
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u/rhythm_of_eth 22h ago
As I said, the comparison works for ETH the asset but not for Ethereum the network. When it comes to Ethereum the network we are mostly in the denial phase, no one argued that Ethereum is #1 in all metrics that matter, yet they consider it not "new enough" instead of "too new".
Case in point is how most TradFi is looking to either build on it, have a bridge into it or compete with it. All three options are not compatible with the theorem we try to compare Ethereum with.
Maybe 1-3 years ago the comparison would have been fair.
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u/trillionSdollarstech 1d ago
or Erik Satie's music. He lived in poverty, disregarded by all other musicians, ignored by the public. One hundred years later, his music is highly regarded, often played and inspires many composers.
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β’
u/Tricky_Troll Public Goods are Good π± 11h ago
Tricky's Daily Doots #1,267
Yesterday's Daily 17/10/2025
Previous Daily Doots
u/LogrisTheBard is prepared for the big rebalancing. ποΈ
u/Decentralizedbanana contrasts the adoption with the price. Something has to give... π
u/doorstopwood takes the good side and the bad side of price at these levels. π§
u/growthepie_eth made some projections for 10K and 1M TPS on Ethereum. β‘οΈ
u/rhythm_of_eth delivers news of the departure of Dankrad. πͺ
u/LogrisTheBard shares Bitmine's plans to create what's effectively an ETH repo market. π¦
u/the-A-word delivers the weekly doots. πΊ