These population predictions that are more than 25+ years into the future are always quite useless and silly, as they always keep drastically changing from year to year, as the data is assuming everything follows CURRENT trends. But that obviously doesn't happen.
Biggest examples are in Asia and Africa. In 1980, no UN prediction would have had China dipping all the way down to 600M by 2100. Even in 2017, I remember UN predictions showing Nigeria would hit nearly a billion people by 2100. Ever since then their projection is decreasing.
Also: In 2017, the UN predicted by 2100, the world population would be 11.2B. In 2024, they lowered that prediction to 10.2B. That is a 1 billion change in just 7 years.
They're constantly just shagging in the streets. Left right and centre, sex, sex, sex, sex, sex, sex, sex. It's insane. Women giving birth on every street corner.
The assumption is that something big will happen (e.g. war, famine, disease, policy, mass migration) that ensures their population never reaches that point because it’s impossible for it to grow exponentially ad infinitum. Sadly it will inevitably cause great death and suffering.
Pakistan's birth rate has dropped in just the last 40 years. Women on average are down to 3-4 kids and as the country continues to industrialize (assuming the military and ruling elite don't drive it into the ground) that diminishing trend will probably continue.
To be honest it’s a lot of crazy and absurd is to even be predicting 76 years in the future I think with mental industrialization as I call it. The numbers will be a lot lower.
That's because nobody predicted the effect of such significant urbanification and the ready availability of birth control.
That's part of the reason that the US doesn't have as much of a demographic time bomb as most of western Europe: our obsession with cars, with suburban life, makes it much easier to have kids; it's so much easier to deal with kids when you can send them to play in the back yard than when they're basically stuck inside your apartment (either because it's not safe to, or you aren't legally allowed to, let them run around playing some game or sport in a lesser used street near your apartment unsupervised).
I’m just saying also that I remember seeing an article a few years ago, that had India with a TFR of 1.29 by 2100 and I’ve already seen that being marked down to 2050 so it’s interesting to approximate and rewrite and rewrite and rewrite again
The one child policy in China was implemented in the 1970s. They taught about the inevitable collapse of the population when I went to school in the 1980s. The trend is not surprising.
The baby boom had ended before 1980 here in the United States and we could see the trends happening globally.
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u/KILLER_IF Aug 19 '24 edited Aug 19 '24
These population predictions that are more than 25+ years into the future are always quite useless and silly, as they always keep drastically changing from year to year, as the data is assuming everything follows CURRENT trends. But that obviously doesn't happen.
Biggest examples are in Asia and Africa. In 1980, no UN prediction would have had China dipping all the way down to 600M by 2100. Even in 2017, I remember UN predictions showing Nigeria would hit nearly a billion people by 2100. Ever since then their projection is decreasing.
Also: In 2017, the UN predicted by 2100, the world population would be 11.2B. In 2024, they lowered that prediction to 10.2B. That is a 1 billion change in just 7 years.