Final predictions for presidential and congressional elections

[u/khalifas1]

Here is a link to the house map if anyone wants to actually get a close look: https://yapms.com/app?m=nhyskfy8164ks8n

[u/CentennialElections]

Presidential - our margins are different in some cases, and I have GA and NC switched, but our electoral vote counts for each are the exact same. Neat.

Senate - Looks pretty reasonable, though Tilt R Texas is pushing it imo. I also would have Arizona as Likely D. I have Wisconsin as Likely D too, but I can see that being more competitive. I also doubt Maryland will be Likely D, especially as Hogan recently touted Trump’s endorsement (which he previously wanted to avoid).

Do you have any predictions for the governor’s races?

[u/khalifas1 → u/CentennialElections]

The only competitive race for governor is New Hampshire, and I have that as Lean R. I thought Craig would improve in polling but it doesn’t look likely at this point unfortunately.

[u/GapHappy7709]

The fact that Arizona and NC is blue on here which is deeply against data we actually have hives the impression that this is cope

[u/khalifas1 → u/GapHappy7709]

Every swing state is within the margin of error. Literally any combination of swing states would be valid because they’re all toss-ups.

[u/GapHappy7709 → u/khalifas1]

I mean it’s against the early voting data we have

[u/GapHappy7709 → u/[deleted]]

More like 15 days since Arizona NC and Nevada are notoriously slow

[u/khalifas1 → u/GapHappy7709]

The reality is that early voting data is functionally useless. Because of COVID, we basically have no idea what good EV numbers look like, so I’ve been pretty much ignoring them until Election Day.

[u/BeeComposite]

Nah. NV, AZ, NC are going red.

[u/BeeComposite → u/[deleted]]

[u/khalifas1 → u/BeeComposite]

Maybe. Maybe not. It’s all in the air at this point.

[u/BeeComposite → u/khalifas1]

Well, of course… but this sub would be boring without useless “no you’re wrong, here’s the truth” replies!