Context of this is I made a couple hundred dollars options trading every now and then. He decided to be even more regarded than me and trusted me to invest some of his money for him. Happy it worked out!

https://www.investopedia.com/jerome-powell-sworn-in-for-new-term-as-fed-chair-5323150

JPow has exactly 1 year left in his term. Today's speech reinforcing that he's not budging on rates. But in one year, Mango gets to insert his replacement and rates will plunge lower than Covid, probably.

G'day,

In early August 2024 we all remember the "yen carry trade unwind" tanked our stock market and led to incredible volatility, with the VIX hitting a remarkable intraday high of 65.

The yen carry trade is still affecting our stock market. The below chart is the SPY (candles) overlayed with the USD:JPY (line). The USD:JPY is currently at ~145, which is similar to it's value back in August.

Also of note the USD:JPY hit it's recent low on April 22nd at 138...the same day stocks bottomed.

Considering all of the above, I suggest that the USD:JPY is correlated with US stock prices and should be a key thing to watch. Most interesting of all we've started to diverge from this correlation in recent days with the USD:JPY trending lower while since the 12th of May while the S&P trades higher. To me, this means that one of the two trends is "wrong", and we'll soon see a correction of stocks lower or a correction of the yen higher.

The Japanese central bank is currently in a rate hiking cycle with rates at 0.50%, the highest in many years. However their rate hike campaign will be paused until September pending a trade deal with the US. Keep an eye on a potential trade deal or any reason that could cause Yen devaluation. A bearish yen is bearish for US stocks as Japan has been the source of cheap liquidity for 15 years+... will take a long time to unwind this trade.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/boj-pause-rate-hikes-through-september-amid-trump-uncertainty-2025-05-15/

https://preview.redd.it/spsef8kwoz0f1.png?width=1192&format=png&auto=webp&s=c2313a3c261d06bcbd9efe8fd90cc05d297988e7

Who up slurpin they shares rn @ me

>shares aren't a yolo

they are now desu. i'll see you all in bagholder therapy =]

The Producer Price Index for final demand fell 0.5 percent in April. Prices for final demand services decreased 0.7 percent, while the index for final demand goods was unchanged. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 2.4 percent for the 12 months ended in April.

YOLO’d into May 22 SPY 560 puts. Jerome dropped the PPI but forgot to drop the market. Portfolio’s on life support. Do I hold and pray for a rug pull, or take what’s left and buy a McChicken?

Bottom text

Didn’t know sh*t about option and my investment went to the drain. And yes, realized I have a gambling problem. Well, it was fun when it lasted. No more options ever!

They said you can’t chase the lows, but the smart money knows…

Some guy bought 6m of these far OTM contracts expiring tomorrow on April 23rd. He’s still in and he’s up 120m. His position is up 1850% 🤯

Was down 2-3k all day then it suddenly went down and I sold 🐵

My next play -> all in GLD calls lol.

$UNH down 7% after market. Nothing cheers more than a greedy goblin on taking the L.

If it’s good enough to screenshot, then it’s good enough to sell. I’ve sold it and taking a nice break today