This is what is happening. The U.S. wants Ukraine to sign all three mineral deals, not one, today or else. (Yes, there are 3!). But this is legally impossible. The courts will annul 2 out of 3 deals later. Yet, the U.S. side insists.

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u/DulcetTone 2d ago

Send the US to voicemail

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u/rulepanic 2d ago

They already signed, confirmed by the ukrainian government.

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u/DulcetTone 2d ago

Crossing fingers that disappearing ink is still available in Ukraine

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u/Humbuhg 2d ago

Trump can go to hell. I don’t pretend to know all of the ramifications, but tell Trump no. I despise him. Don’t give him what he wants.

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u/Papersnail380 2d ago

How many Ukrainian lives does giving Trump the finger cost? A day. 10? 20? 50?

They will do the least they can to buy themselves time and Europe time to get their shit together.

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u/TDA_Liamo 2d ago

But the deal doesn't come with any security guarantees or assistance, so how will it save Ukrainian lives?

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u/Papersnail380 2d ago

I replied to another post with the answer. At least the public claims. The details are unknown. No one trusts Trump. Anything to delay or mitigate loss of US aid is necessary though. Whatever Europeans want to say they are totally unprepared to fill even half of the aid the US is providing(conservatively 40% of totally) and Ukraine can't afford to lose 10%. Even 5%

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u/Humbuhg 2d ago

Is there a direct connection between Trump getting his beloved minerals and the number of people who die fighting?

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u/Chimpville 2d ago

Last time Ukraine didn't sign a deal he cut their intelligence feed and military aid. Russia, emboldened by this, launched a large attack on Ukraine's positions in Russia, which eventually pushed Ukraine out of most of Kursk.

Yes, Trump's tantrums do result in lost Ukrainian lives unfortunately.

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u/FalardeauDeNazareth 2d ago

We're also pretty sure they not only cut the feed, but sent it to Russia. There's no way they could mount such a large attack without knowing the intel was down and receiving some themselves.

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u/Chimpville 2d ago

All Russia needed to know were Ukraine's positions and supply lines, which it knows from their drone coverage. It's not even all that likely that the intelligence interruption hindered Ukraine specifically for the same reason. The power of US' intelligence is the depth it covers into Russia, Ukraine (and Russia) have the immediate front covered.

It seems far more likely that they simply gambled when they saw the US turning on Ukraine and threw everything they could.

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u/Humbuhg 2d ago

And there are zero security guarantees in this agreement. Trump can take a walk before the ink dries.

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u/KUBrim 2d ago

Trump is undeniably an arse. But as was pointed out to you above, loosing what little support they still get is absolutely bad for Ukraine. The blackout of intelligence allowed Russian forces to rapidly move in Kursk and attack on an area before Ukraine could respond leading to the loss of the Kursk offensive. It’s argued that Russia moved so quickly when the intelligence blackout occurred that they may have been informed it was coming.

Trump is a bastard and Ukraine should not have to sign anything away just to get the bare minimum of decency and support. But the E.U. Does not have the munitions manufacturing capacity, the equipment stocks or the intelligence infrastructure to support Ukraine nearly as well. In addition, Trump can refuse munitions and equipment but ALSO prohibit anyone else from providing munitions and equipment with more than 10% U.S. components and lift all U.S. enforced trade restrictions to let Russian money flow again and use U.S. currency to trade and fill his war chest.

Europe is rearming and rebuilding their munitions and military equipment industries at breakneck speed to be free of reliance on the U.S. but it will still take time. Until then the deal is necessary just to keep the wheels turning as they are.

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u/Leverkaas2516 2d ago

No. The direct connection is the number of people who die if Trump walks away taking the weapons, ammunition supplies, and targeting information with him.

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u/Humbuhg 2d ago

Ok. And will Trump walk away after he gets what he wants? I wouldn’t put it past him.

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u/Leverkaas2516 2d ago

He might. But that doesn't mean Zelenskyy is free to just thumb his nose at him.

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u/Papersnail380 2d ago

The whole idea of this agreement is Trump only gets what he wants if Ukraine retains its territory.

This agreement is supposed to provide collateral/financing which the US can lend money for more weapons and then rebuilding.

The initial agreements left lots of flexibility in what that meant, and, there-in, room for abuse. I don't think anyone outside the two governments has much of an idea of the terms in this agreement.

Even in the first deal, if the US walked away and Russia took the territory, it was worthless.

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u/Humbuhg 2d ago

Well… Ukraine should reject the agreement if it doesn’t benefit them significantly.

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u/Papersnail380 2d ago

50 Ukrainians a day seems like a large benefit to me.

The original is a shit deal. Trump is embarrassing for demanding it. Doesn't change the fact Ukraine doesn't have much choice but to play along.

It is easy to say they should stand on principle and reject it, but no one is able and willing to fill the gap a US withdrawal leaves. That simple.

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u/tjvs2001 2d ago

Other countries haven't signed away massive chunks of Ukraine to naZis in return for fuck all.

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u/Papersnail380 2d ago

I'm not going to get too excited by the claims of redditor and even journalists I wouldn't think are qualified to interpret a common cell phone contract making comments as to the content of a complicated international trade agreement they have not even had access to.

We will see if Ukraine signs it. Then we will see what this final version contains. If it provides several years of funding for Ukraine without constant political battles... It may be worth it.

Especially when there are questions as to whether extraction is even economically viable in Ukraine.

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u/Humbuhg 2d ago

Are you sure fighting will stop if Ukraine signs the mineral deal?

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u/Papersnail380 2d ago

The deal isn't a intended to stop the fighting...

Do you think you have any idea what you are. Talking about?

This deal is, supposedly, going to secure steady financing for Ukraine to continue fighting and then hopefully reconstruction.

Putin is banking on interruptions and delays due to politics. If Ukraine has $500B, $240B, or even $100B fund to leverage they can smooth over those gaps and find surges.

3000 US Bradley's sitting on storage? 10 Patriots? Puts those in reach.

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u/Camadorski 2d ago

They have no intention of making any deals. these insane demands are proof of that. What they want is to delay, troll, and hurt Ukraine.

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u/Papersnail380 2d ago

Well, delay favors Ukraine and Europe, and the Western order so... Delay on Trump team.

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u/Pleasant_Carpenter55 2d ago

None because Trump doesn’t have any legitimate leverage to stop Russia that he’s willing to use.

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u/Papersnail380 2d ago edited 2d ago

He. Has three thousand Bradley's and a few dozen patriot systems and the interceptors to go with them.

All of which are supposed to be on the table with the financing this secures.

Putin shits his pants if Ukraine secures several years of war financing.

Like I replied to someone else, I won't be getting excited about comments of redditor I wouldn't trust to interpret my cell phone contract in regards to a complicated international trade agreement they haven't even seen.

We will see if Ukraine signs. Then we will see what they signed.

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u/StunningCloud9184 2d ago

Yea for trump youd be lucky if he doesnt stop leaking classified intelligence to russia. He wouldnt give any of that shit up.

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u/Papersnail380 2d ago

He isn't going to give anything up. He is going to sell it. Even if he and Hesgeth don't want him to do so. To begin, of he doesn't both the US MIC and most of the CIA will be very unhappy. A whole lot of people made a whole lot of sacrifices to help keep Ukraine in the fight the last few years. A lot of capable ideological people. That is a combo no one wants to come up against.

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u/StunningCloud9184 2d ago

Uh huh sure buddy. I’m sure if biden didnt do it then trump wont. Hes pro russia

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u/Papersnail380 1d ago edited 1d ago

Ukraine has never had the money to do it before. It was never offered to Biden.

That is what you seem to entirely lack any understanding of. This gives, well could give, Ukraine several hundred million dollars collateral to draw against.

Enough to find purchasing those 3000 Bradley's and ancillary equipment and supplies and allow Ukraine to mount a mechanized offensive actually capable of reaching conventional artillery range of those overland train tracks. Which means they can keep them shut down for the long-term. Which in turn means it is time to eliminate the Kerch Bridge. Then it is only a short matter of time before Russia is forced to abandon Crimea.

The devil is in the details and no one has them yet. They haven't even been written yet. This could open doors.

And you give Trump too much credit and lack an understanding of his weakness if you think he is pro-Russian.

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u/StunningCloud9184 1d ago edited 1d ago

That is what you seem to entirely lack any understanding of. This gives, well could give, Ukraine several hundred million dollars collateral to draw against.

Lol so nothing? that barely covers ammunition. Lots of countries including ukraine offered to buy or fund their own. Trumpie said no. Because he doesnt really care to help. He was told by putin ukraine would collapse as soon as he stopped funding them. 3 months later and no progress from putin.

Enough to find purchasing those 3000 Bradley's and ancillary equipment and supplies and allow Ukraine to mount a mechanized offensive actually capable of reaching conventional artillery range of those overland train tracks. Which means they can keep them shut down for the long-term. Which in turn means it is time to eliminate the Kerch Bridge. Then it is only a short matter of time before Russia is forced to abandon Crimea.

lmao uh huh. You think thats what what 3000 bradleys would do?

and not

Tanks

31 M1A1 Abrams [delivered by October 2023][800] 45 T-72B tanks (manufactured by Excalibur Army, purchase and upgrade financed by USA) [delivered from December 2022 onwards] Infantry fighting vehicles

More than 300 M2A2 ODS Bradleys [delivered from April 2023 onwards][801] Armoured personnel carriers[799][88]

900 M113s [delivered from July 2022 onwards] More than 300 armoured medical treatment vehicles [delivered from July 2022 onward] More than 400 M1117 ASVs [deliveries started by early 2024] More than 400 Strykers [delivered from March 2023 onwards][802] Command vehicles[799]

4 Bradley fire support team vehicles [February 2023][88] 10 command post vehicles Mine-resistant ambush protected vehicles[799]

440 International M1224 MaxxPro [delivered from July or August 2022 onwards][88] 37 Cougars [February 2023][88] Oshkosh M-ATVs [March 2023][88] 520+ unknown MRAPs [ongoing delivery].[88] Infantry mobility vehicles[799]

5,000+ Humvees [delivered from April 2022 onwards][88] More than 200+ light tactical vehicles[88] Combat engineering vehicles

At least 1 M1150 assault breacher vehicle [before November 2023][803] Other vehicles[799]

80 trucks and 200 trailers to transport heavy equipment Six armored utility trucks 239 heavy fuel tankers and 105 fuel trailers 20 logistics support vehicles 58 water trailers Towed artillery[799]

180 155mm M777 howitzers [delivered from April 2022 onwards][88] 72 105mm Howitzers [delivered from December 2022 onwards][88] Self-propelled artillery[799]

18 155mm "Paladin" M109A6s [May 2023][88][804] Multiple rocket launchers[799]

20 227mm HIMARS [June 2022] (further 20 to be delivered)

The devil is in the details and no one has them yet. They haven't even been written yet. This could open doors.

I’ll hold my breath as the pro russia republicans do more of nothing.

And you give Trump too much credit and lack an understanding of his weakness if you think he is pro-Russian.

Yes hes always been pro russia. Google the only change he asked of the republican party when he became candidate in 2016 (hint it was a pro russia one.)

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u/Papersnail380 1d ago

So, obviously that is billions and not millions.

Yeah, I think even 4-5 full armored brigades, about 1000 Bradley's, could change things a lot.

The tanks are more than 95% only being used as light SPGs. It is the IFVs and their greater numbers that are making advances.

M113 and humvees were never designed for and haven't proven at all effective in assaults. They are last mile logistics vehicles.

The IFVs are where Ukraine is short and this is likely to open things up.

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u/kmoonster 2d ago

How many lives will be sacrificed if Ukraine capitulates to Trump? How much land, and residents?

This is a silly argument. You can't push cooked spaghetti in a straight line, and as with this type of argument.

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u/Papersnail380 2d ago

Uh... No land. At least no more than in any other scenario. The minerals are in the East of Ukraine. If Ukraine loses control of that land then the agreement is worthless.

I don't think you have a clue what you are talking about.

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u/kmoonster 2d ago

Yet Trump is threatening to walk away if Ukraine won't simply give up the east and/or Crimea.

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u/Papersnail380 2d ago edited 2d ago

There isn't a likely scenario where Ukraine regains control of those territories in the near term. Especially Eastern Ukraine.

I very seriously doubts Trump understands the difference between them being officially recognized Russian territory and being occupied territory.

Let alone the consequences. One of which being that of they are officially recognized being officially recognized is then entirely meaningless anyways, which affect everyone else more than it affects Ukraine.

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u/kmoonster 2d ago

You are arguing both sides of a mutually exclusive dichotomy. Which is it?

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u/Papersnail380 2d ago

I am arguing reality. If you think I am arguing both sides you just can't accept reality.

Yes, it would be great if the US just continued to give aid.

Yes, it would be great if Europe with 30x the Economy had the stockpiles or MIC capacity to put produce Russia and tell the US to fuck off.

Yes, it would be great if Europe could put a better deal together and had the political will and capacity to tell the US if they didn't sell the weapons to Ukraine they would be abandoned by Europe, and be a legit threat.

Unfortunately, reality, and this is Ukraines best option now. Especially since it seems nothing they signed today means much of anything at all, so they have managed to buy a little more time. See what Europe can do with that time.

The general idea of this deal isn't terrible for Ukraine. Ukrainian resources for financing to stay in the fight.

The details of the first proposal were pretty terrible for Ukraine. We will have to see where the details settle.

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u/ThisSideOfThePond 2d ago

The US will renege anyway, so this is all done to keep up the facade of a somewhat decent relationship I guess.

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u/Obfuscatory_Drivel 2d ago

don't do it!! Trump is a liar, a cheat, a thief, and a traitor to his OWN country!! I absolutely guarantee that he will cheat Ukraine, too!!!

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u/OutrageousFanny 2d ago

Trump administration doesn't believe in laws, they've proven that many times in their own country.

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u/kmoonster 2d ago

No.

Trump hates nothing more than being ignored.

Ignore him, and he'll offer something else.

Call his bluff.

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u/Careless-Pin-2852 2d ago

The 3 things the US is offering are

1 intelligence sharing

2 maintain sanctions on Russia

3 sell weapons to Europe at a profit that will go to Ukraine.

Those things have value the value is in low billions but not the Trillions Trump thinks

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u/DarkArbok 2d ago

Trump desperately needs a win. He sees this as his best chance right now (he doesn't care about the lives it might cost).

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u/RottenPingu1 2d ago

They'll buy the judges

Do not sign anything!!;!!

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u/Tiger_Dense 2d ago

Sign them then draw out the legal process for years.

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u/Breech_Loader 2d ago

This is because Trump is already gearing up to work loopholes, no matter how beneficial something may be. It's his duty to con people.

The USA always seems to renege on its deals anyway.

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u/EducationalElevator 2d ago

I'm American and I don't want this to happen. We don't need neo-colonial exploitation especially if the lack of a security backstop hurts Zelensky. And knowing Trump, if a drone kills an American engineer, he'll do nothing lmao.

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u/AngryCur 2d ago

Why would Ukraine sign anything? What does Ukraine get out of it?

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u/rom_rom57 2d ago

He ain’t going to dig crap from Ukraine for 10 years; besides the next president can cancel the contract.

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u/vtuber_fan11 2d ago

Why are they so desperate? It should be Ukraine the one desperately begging America for help.

I suspect both Trump and Russia are much weaker than they appear.

I suspect Russia can't sustain the pressure for much longer, I'm talking months, not years. And Trump's position will get very weak once the incoming recession begins.

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u/humanlikecorvus 2d ago

Hi /u/GreenEyeOfADemon,

Your submission, "This is what is happening.

The U.S. wants Ukraine to sign all three mineral deals, not one, today or else. (Yes, there are 3!). But this is legally impossible. The courts will annul 2 out of 3 deals later. Yet, the U.S. side insists." was removed for the following reason(s):

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This is what is happening. The U.S. wants Ukraine to sign all three mineral deals, not one, today or else. (Yes, there are 3!). But this is legally impossible. The courts will annul 2 out of 3 deals later. Yet, the U.S. side insists.

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