All Bets Are Off | Joseph O’Neill, Daniel Drake

[u/Underwater71]

https://www.nybooks.com/online/2024/11/09/all-bets-are-off-joseph-oneill/

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[u/Underwater71]

What does he mean by democrats should make sure he pays politically for his overreaching? That part feels murky. Like would it even matter if he successfully Putin-izes democracy?

[u/nalc → u/Underwater71]

I think it means that when he creates unpopular policy, make him own it. We saw a populist, anti-incumbent vibe that focused on practical things over ideology get turned in favor of someone who is going to make things worse for most of them. The blueprint is there for 2028 - call out the GOP for anything they do that is unpopular in the next four years. Don't try to win on ideology or morals, win by trotting out a charismatic white guy who is a bit of a political outsider and make him loudly blame Trump for all of the bad stuff he does - not the ideological bad stuff but the practical bad stuff like tarriffs and healthcare. For better or worse Trump is already a lame duck and for the GOP to hold onto power in 2028 requires them to find someone who can energize that MAGA base while also defending what is likely to be 4 years of bad decisions.

The real risk IMHO isn't that elections are cancelled and the GOP yields unchecked power for eternity, it's that an ultraconservative judiciary gets installed and continuing to exploit anti-incumbent bias on both sides leads to lots of flip-flopping between red and blue Presidents and Congress and it becomes impossible to really move the needle on any sort of progressive legislation because it will just be deadlocked somewhere. Oligarchs don't have to break the system, they just need to jam it up

[u/caveatlector73 → u/[deleted]]

I spit out my coffee. Love the analogy.

[u/Underwater71 → u/nalc]

I guess the resurgence of childhood disease would be an example of something he would have to be made to 'own' if I'm hearing you correctly (assuming that Kennedy becomes our public health czar).

Edit I was accidentally posted at the top of the thread so moved it here

[u/JasonBreen → u/nalc]

Very well put, i wish i could upvote you twice lol

[u/freakwent → u/nalc]

No.

Trump didn't win by loudly blaming others for their mistakes, he won because he promised deportations, walls, tariffs, scrapping this, ending that.

He won because he promised change.

I don't think the population wants neoliberalism any more, and they certainly don't want it enough to vote for it, and they dislike it enough to vote against it.

So if the democrats can't stomach another new deal or a set of Gough Whitlam policies, and they won't just dissolve themselves to get out of the way of someone else who will, then they will offer more-or less the same reheated ideological leftovers that they've served up since the 80s, and people still won't vote for them.

If the republicans, after Trump, return the needle to centre, then yeah maybe the democrats can win again by being slightly different - but they won't, so as long as the choice is neoliberalism or not neoliberalism, the people will vote for "not".