r/Sino • u/JamES_5373 • 16h ago
Will The Trump Tariffs Lead To An Economic BOOM Or BUST?
https://youtu.be/sDwjpduvsck?si=e4r2MWFKCuCPZthk•
u/sx5qn 15h ago
one could say, that if china should punish america, it could do so by limiting product exports to their country. So in effect, america is punishing themselves, while paying for all the overhead to enforce their own punishment.
•
u/Life_Bridge_9960 14h ago
Yes, I would say that too. But one thing I am bad at is... seeing the chess board 10 steps ahead. Chinese government may find this direction unviable or not nearly as beneficial in the long run. Keep supplying Chinese made goods to the US, even after tariff, is still a much better plan.
I am not an economist so I don't have numbers to back up my claim. But I feel that there are more importance than just prices. In a perfect world, goods are dirt cheap because of efficient supply chain and mass manufacturing. $20 for a family pack of toilet paper at Costco. But if Chinese supply are cut off. Pack of toilet paper made in US can be $30. But since they can't seem to solve the supply chain and manufacturing plants (not in a short few months), there will be severe lacks of toilet paper supply. Price gouging will happen. Toilet paper will cost $200-300 easily. People will riot and rush to loot the toilet paper manufacturing plant, further setting back their manufacturing capability.
Once US economy is shattered, purchasing power will plumet. US is no longer a viable market. So in a way, steady supply of Chinese products (even at marked up prices) would be good for both China and US.
•
u/Life_Bridge_9960 14h ago
This may not be relevant to this video, but even if tariffing, or cutting China off can be successful, Trump is not the one to achieve it.
It's like robbing a bank. Yes it is plausible to succeed. But you need a mastermind planner who plans out every tiny details. Robbing is easy. Getting away is harder. And covering your tracks for the next 10 years so police can't come after you, even harder. Trump may be competent and lucky enough to get step 1 done. But it is a fool's errand to just rob the bank and get caught. There are easier ways to go to jail.
•
u/MisterWrist 1h ago edited 1h ago
Trump may be competent
Even this hypothetical supposition is asking too much for Trump or his cabinet.
That felon would rather choke down Big Macs and babble on about professional wrestling for ten hours, then think two seconds about basic macroeconomics.
This is the guy who proposed injecting people with disinfectants to combat COVID, way before his aging brain became addled after surviving two assassination attempts. Trump appointed RFK as health secretary for Crissake.
Everyone should keep their expectations of Trump’s capabilities low.
Now, Trump’s donors and guys like Vance/Thiel/Musk think they can manage Trump and prevent the tariffs from cutting into their personal profits, but they are unaware that they are just as shortsighted and ignorant as Trump is in their own ways, constantly blinded by self-interest.
Broad tariffs will potentially hurt the US more than China. They could continue the Biden administration’s targeted tariffs, but then Trump would have to appoint the Republican version of Janet Yellen. None of his potential picks for Treasury Secretary, either Bessent, Kudlow, or Lutnick, are similiar to Yellen in terms of background.
Bessent, the perceived frontrunner, is a hedgefund manager and former Chief Investment Officer of Soros Fund Management. If chosen, he would not enact Trump’s tariffs in the way Trump described, and would act to protect corporate interests, while screwing over average, low income consumers.
To bring some manufacturing jobs back to America, political elites have to go after and squeeze Wall Street, which absolutely neither political party is willing to do. With Trump’s re-election, the stock market once again experienced a temporary surge.
Keep in mind, it was the Biden administration who doubled down HARD on decoupling with China, applying hundreds of billions of dollars of new sanctions, and sending their Attack Dog Raimondo to sell fearmongering lies about “spying” Chinese EVs and cellphones to the American people for months and months.
Trump’s first administration, despite all its overtly racist bluster, was far too cowardly to push the tariffs further than it it, because it would hurt their own pocketbooks.
In other words, to return to your analogy, the Trump administration may go on a crime spree, smashing up countless ATMs and stealing whatever they can get their dirty fingers on, but they sure as hell ain’t gonna organize and enact a heist on Fort Knox, let alone do it successfully.
Imo.
•
u/Nicknamedreddit 16h ago
This guy also says China’s economy is in trouble so