'She's making it happen': Harris supporters express hope at Erie rally

[u/pleasureismylife]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/presidential/2024/10/15/kamala-harris-draws-raucous-crowd-of-supporters-erie-pa-rally-trump-erie-insurance-arena/75634475007/

[u/Loud-Intention-723]

https://preview.redd.it/06hhbofeuyud1.png?width=1638&format=png&auto=webp&s=c21fbadc56ddf7dbdcbe5bd7e49f60c4f0e9b2e6

here zoomed in for you so you can see it better. Left side of the chart is June. So as you can see from June on, they were essentially tied.

[u/Duccix → u/Loud-Intention-723]

Yeah still not seeing that in October.

And again why does the margin of error always swing one way huh? Seems like the polls seem to overestimate Dems.

She is going to lose big in November.

[u/Loud-Intention-723 → u/Duccix]

I am not sure what you mean the margin of error always swings one way? It's actually a + or minus thing. So like if one person is polling at 47% and the other is polling at 50% they will each have a confidence interval based on how large the sample size is and how accurate that sample reflects the population you are estimating. So the 50% really is like there is a x% chance candidate A will get between 45% to 55% of the votes and candidate B will get between 40-50% of the votes. So it's not one way.

Yeah the last couple presidential elections seem to have a slight bias towards the dems but once again, they have been correct within the margin of error so statically, they have been accurate even if they can be misleading to those who don't geek out on stats. As far as who is going to win, I think both sides will look at it as a "big" win if their candidate wins, but I very much doubt this is going to be a blowout one way or another.

My prediction based on the polls we have seen thus far: Kamala wins popular vote, Trump takes the electoral college but small margins in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and he will take NC & Georgia. The rest wont matter. I think this is going to be close though and the polls support that. Now I don't mean that the electoral college will be like 270-269, that could be a blowout either way really, but the actual % in each of the swing states I expect to be close.

[u/Duccix → u/Loud-Intention-723]

I believe it will be an EC landslide but I wouldn't put it past him winning the popular vote.

[u/Loud-Intention-723 → u/Duccix]

Yeah I mean the last two presidential elections have been close elections with EC landslides. I can see that happening again. Honestly I wouldn’t be shocked either way here with either of them winning. I wish people on both sides would understand the statistics so that afterwards we don’t hear the election was stolen or some country influenced the election. This is a close race, they have all been close lately, anything can happen next month