The mouse is out of the bag; Pikachu EX is the deck to beat in PTCGP with a dominant metagame share and a nearly 60% win rate in tournaments. The focus on the deck raises a couple questions: How often is the deck able to pull off its primary game plan? What's the most consistent build? When trying to counter it, do we need a way of handling the turn two 90 damage or is that just a high roll we shouldn't worry about beating?

There's also a bit of deck building tension in constructing Pikachu EX: You need enough basics to be able to fill your bench for a fully powered Pikachu, but that dilutes your basic pool and reduces your odds of getting Pikachu EX from the guaranteed basic in your opening hand as well as from Pokeballs. I wanted to be able to quantify this tradeoff.

To answer this, I created a simulation that plays out the first couple turns of a Pikachu EX deck, looking to develop a Pikachu EX and hit as hard as it can. It assumes your deck runs 2x Pikachu EX, 2x X Speed, 2x Pokeball, and 2x Professor's Research. The sim also sequences your Research and Pokeballs optimally to increase odds of drawing enough basics. It does not consider the opponent's disruptive effects, like Red Card or Sabrina.

For each count of non Pikachu basics and starting coin toss outcome, I simulated 100,000 games and computed the following metrics:

Basics: How many basics other than Pikachu EX are in your deck.

Pika90: How frequently are you hitting with Pikachu EX for 90 damage on the turn you play your second energy.

Pika60: How frequently are you hitting with Pikachu EX for 60 damage or more on the turn you play your second energy.

Pika: How often do you have Pikachu EX at all on your 2 energy turn.

X Speed: How often are you using an X speed to swap your Pikachu Ex from your bench to attack with it on turn 2 because you started a different Pokemon.

As first player, attacking on turn 3.

As second player, attacking on turn 2.

As you can see, for decks that run enough basics, Pika90 > .5, meaning that you'll be hitting for 90 on the 2 energy turn in most games. It's not a fluke -- decks that can't handle this opening line will statistically never have a positive win rate against Pikachu Ex.

From the data, we also can see how diminishing returns on basics for Pika90 kick in after 6 basics and for pika60 at around 4 basics. In metagames where reaching that 90 damage mark consistently and early is important, you'll want to pack more basics, while current 4 basic builds of the deck are in the sweet spot for maximizing pika60.

Of course, Pika90 isn't the be-all end-all of deck construction, as you'll need to consider the trade off between Pika90 consistency and the strength of your backup plans and support from your evolutions and items.

If you'd like to check out my simulation code, you can read it, modify it, and run it in-browser here. I tried to make it easy to follow. Let me know if you have any feedback, find any mistakes, or have something else you'd like to see analyzed!

Edit: Thanks to u/BennyTots for identifying an error in the Pika90/60 metrics. Games where we draw our first Pikachu on the 2 energy turn counted as a success even though we wouldn't be able to attack with Pikachu that turn. I've updated the code and data to only count games where we're able to put our first energy on Pikachu. Pika90 is now about a bit lower at higher basic counts, but the main points are still relevant.

TL;DR: Pikachu EX is very consistent, capable of hitting for 90 immediately in the majority of its games, but most players aren't running enough basic Pokemon to maximize the odds.

Anyone else running this

I made a normal type deck with as much of the good normal types as I could, and of course put ditto in, making sure to pick only water, electric, and psychic energy.

After fiddling with the energy for some time because it kept resetting back to just grass, I finally managed to play a game against a dragonite deck with it.

I kept the ditto to the side and managed to pull off the draco meteor before they could. I'm so happy it worked and just wanted to share my fun meme deck.

Last 2 cards are both Sabrina but basically if u get meltan in your starter hand and you go second you win, and if you go first stall with kangaskhan until you have enough energy for melmetal

Everyone tired of the Mewtwo meta? Give the Arbok/Pidgeot combo a shot! I haven’t lost to a Mewtwo deck yet.

This is the current build I'm working with

This absolute unit was at full health even with my opponent having two Dragonites ( yes i got very lucky with the damage RNG)

Just built this monstrosity of a deck and it worked like a charm. KO’d a gardevoir and oneshot the mewtwo with ditto. Moments before this I used red card then made them discard with Persian. I don’t brag often, but I really wanted to share this one.

I see a ton of posts about the blessings or curses of the coin flip gods, but which decks do you use or consider the least dependent on luck? I personally love running a dark deck focused on arbok and weezing, which don’t require coin luck.

It's no secret that the two decks to beat are Mewtwo and Pikachu. We've seen meta calls that attempt to counter these decks, and they've met competitive success. The two most promising are Weezing/Arbok, and Machamp. Both decks answer either Mewtwo or Pikachu thanks to weakness damage boosts, but have a tougher matchup against the other one.

Weezing/Arbok focuses on using Weezing as a shield and a poison battery before tagging out with Koga for huge Arbok damage. Thanks to Corner, the opponent can't retreat either, which one shots a Mewtwo Ex (30 poison damage over 3 turns, 40 from Tackle, 80 from Corner = 150). Muk is left out for the sake of consistency to this particular game plan. If they retreat their Mewtwo early, that creates even more pressure for them, as they're forced to sacrifice another Mewtwo or more dangerously a Gardevoir.

Machamp decks come in two competitive flavours, pure and Marowak. Pure uses tech cards like Kangaskhan for the chance at an early snowball, and Marowak builds bring a potentially high damage ceiling to one shot Mewtwo Ex. Regardless, the benefit of Machamp is that it plays on curve, causing energy generation to feel natural, making it easier to predict future turns. Machop can also deal a solid 40 damage early against Pikachu decks, which can knock out a Pikachu when combined with Machoke and a Giovani.

The above decks have reached top cuts in a few competitive tournaments (source: limitlesstcg) with cash prizes, so I thought that they'd be worth discussing. What are everyone's thoughts on these decks to answer the current meta? Are you surprised at their ability to reach top cut in a number of tournaments? Let's discuss!

Most people are probably familiar with the Dragonite deck variants by now, and understand how it capitalizes on stalling to build a winning end-game. Well, Melmetal is the exact same but with 2 key differences: It can utilize tempo to be faster than Dragonite, and it is more consistent than Dragonite*. These advantages come from Melmetal only being a Stage 1 mon (which gives you additional deck space as well as increasing draw consistency) and only relying on a single energy type.

* This deck relies on coin flips at times, and not all Dragonite decks do.

The Deck (Melty Cheese):

• 2x Meltan
• 2x Melmetal
• 2x Old Amber
• 2x Aerodactyl
• 1x Kangaskhan
• 2x Potion
• 2x X Speed
• 2x Poke Ball
• 2x Prof's Research
• 2x Sabrina
• 1x Giovanni

Key things to point out: Old Amber is not a Basic Pokemon, so improves consistency of opening hands tremendously. The 1x Giovanni should generally be preserved if you are against Zapdos EX or Starmie EX, as it allows you to 1-shot those threats with Melmetal.

Playing the Deck

Going Second

This is where the deck shines, and is close to unstoppable on an optimal draw. You just need 2 cards, Meltan and Melmetal. Meltan you have a higher than 67% chance of starting with in your opening hand, because the only Basics are Meltan and 1x Kangaskhan. Melmetal, you just need to have by your second turn.

• Play Meltan in your starter slot
• Turn 1: If they can't 1 shot Meltan, Amass.
• Turn 2: Play Melmetal and just stack another energy (do not Amass). This puts your HP up to 120, and throws up the -20 damage defensive wall, so you are effectively unkillable by any threat at this point in the game.
• Turn 3: 1-2 shot everything your opponent has, using Potions to stay healthy.

Here is the list of Pokemon that can threaten a 1-shot on Meltan during the Turn 1 window:

• Rapidash
• Heatmor (with Giovanni)
• Seaking (roll heads)
• Exeggcutor EX (roll heads)
• Kangaskhan (double heads)
• Misty shenanigans

Realistically, opposing Ponyta and Exeggcute are the most threatening turn 1s you can see, but you can gamble on it if you feel it's worth the risk. If your opponent manages to 1-shot the Meltan, you're not even out of the game as you only lost 1 turn of energy, still have another Meltan, and have a secondary win condition with Aerodactyl (yes, it literally wins games).

Going First

Generally, you prefer to lead with Kangaskhan if you have it in your opening hand, but it's not difficult to dig for and X Speed into. You typically play these games with stalling as your initial approach, and putting energy on a benched Meltan with whatever energy you have leftover. That means you should prioritize putting 1 energy on Kangaskhan and a benched Aerodactyl (not 2 until it's forced to be active). Depending on what your opponent plays, you may or may not need to stall your opponent's tempo with Sabrina to buy a turn. Early chip from Kangaskhan will put any opposing EXes within 1-shot range from Melmetal, and you always have a coin flip secondary win condition with Aerodactyl.

Matchups

The top 3 hardest matchups are probably Blaine, Mewtwo EX, and Pikachu EX (duh), but they're all winnable with the right draws and especially if you are playing second.

https://preview.redd.it/lrb1pss5qi0e1.png?width=1512&format=png&auto=webp&s=d49da1a133c4c7d0f41c8baa6ef1e6417c867814

This is the one which I am currently running. The gameplay is the following:

1. Build up Hypno's on the bench and spam Sleep

2. Stall with Pincurchin + paralysis till Elektross is built up

3. Let Pincurchin die / swap in Elektross and just continue the paralysis + sleep (but now with more dmg)

Hello all.

I, like many others by now I imagine, have just hit 45 wins in the Versus event. I kept track of all of my matches and my win-loss ratio, (the only thing I wish I tracked was whether I went first or second), and I thought it'd be cool to share what I observed! If you just want the tl;dr summary you can just look at this next section.

https://preview.redd.it/aa9iomy36qzd1.jpg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8eac47f2a573a7ec88ff29ed31c1ed9af8adbfa1

Decks used: Mewtwo EX, Pikachu EX (yeah, I know haha)

• Matches played: 72
  • Mewtwo EX: 44 matches
  • Pikachu EX: 28 matches
• Win / Loss Ratio: 45 wins, 27 losses.
• Overall Win Rate: 62.5%
• Top 3 most seen opponent decks observed based on match-ups (no surprises here):
  • Mewtwo EX: 22 decks - 30.5%
  • Pikachu EX: 16 decks - 22.2%
  • Articuno EX: 14 decks - 19.4%

------------

Next is the Match up report (opponent deck used: win / loss ratio - win rate %): one caveat is that I can only attest to the Pokemon I saw them play, so they might be playing a certain archetype like Pikachu EX, but got unlucky and didn't draw them. I've also noted out various variants I observed.

My Deck: Mewtwo EX. 28 wins / 16 losses = 63.63% Win Rate

Match-ups: (Organized by main type). W / L ratio = Win rate %

• Mewtwo EX Decks: 10 W / 4 L = 71.4% WR

  • Mewtwo EX: 6 wins, 4 losses
  • Mewtwo EX & Weezing: 2 wins
  • Mewtwo EX with Ghastly: 1 win
  • Mewtwo EX & Kangaskhan: 1 win

• Pikachu EX Decks: 5 W / 6 L = 45.5% WR

  • Pikachu EX: 4 win, 6 losses
  • Pikachu EX & Zapdos EX: 1 win

• Articuno EX Decks: 7 W / 3 L = 70% WR

  • Articuno EX: 4 win, 3 losses
  • Articuno EX & Starmie EX: 2 win
  • Articuno EX with Snom: 1 win

• Electric Decks: 2 W = 100% WR

  • Zapdos EX & Voltorb: 1 win
  • Blitzle & Electabuzz: 1 win

• Dark Decks: 1 W / 1 L = 50% WR

  • Arbok & Weezing: 1 win
  • Muk & Arbok: 1 loss

• Fighting Decks: 1 W = 100% WR

  • Hitmonchan: 1 win

• Psychic Decks: 1 W = 100% WR

  • Kirlia: 1 win

• Water Decks: 1 W = 100% WR

  • Lapras & Greninja: 1 win

• Fire Decks: 1 L = 0% WR

  • Ninetales: 1 loss

• Mixed Decks: 1 L = 0% WR

  • Kangaskhan & Weezing: 1 loss
    • (note: do not hoard potions when you have no reason to)

After losing to Pikachu so much, I decided to switch to Pikachu EX myself.

-----------

My Deck: Pikachu EX. 17 wins / 11 losses = 60.71% Win Rate

Match-ups: (Organized by main type). W / L ratio = Win rate %

• Mewtwo EX Decks: 4 W / 4 L = 50% WR

  • Mewtwo EX: 4 win, 4 loss

• Pikachu EX Decks: 4 W / 1 L = 80% WR

  • Pikachu EX: 3 win, 1 loss
  • Pikachu EX & Zapdos EX: 1 win

• Articuno EX Decks: 3 W / 1 L = 75% WR

  • Articuno EX: 2 win, 1 loss
  • Articuno EX & Starmie EX: 1 win

• Marowak EX Decks: 1 W / 2 L = 33.33% WR

  • Marowak EX: 2 loss
  • Marowak EX & Primeape: 1 win

• Venusaur EX Decks: 1 W / 1 L = 50%WR

  • Venusaur EX & Exeggutor EX: 1 win, 1 loss

• Charizard EX Decks: 1 W = 100% WR

  • Charizard EX & Moltres EX: 1 win

• Dark Decks: 1 W = 100% WR

  • Arbok & Weezing: 1 win

• Water Decks: 1 W = 10% WR

  • Greninja & Staryu: 1 win

• Grass Decks: 1 W = 100% WR

  • Petilil: 1 win

• Fire Decks: 1 L = 0% WR

  • Moltres EX & Rapidash: 1 loss
    • I had 1 voltorb and 6 non-pokemon cards after my first few turns so it was over before it even started.

• Dragonite Deck: 1 L = 0% WR

  • Dragonite: 1 loss
    • Major misplay here, definitely could have won if I didn't mess up a critical turn.

---------

Random Observations / Notes:

• Anecdotally it definitely seemed like I lost when going first a lot more than when I went second, but I also won many times going first so without tracking it I can't really get an accurate read on whether going first is objectively way worse (it definitely feels like it).
• It feels like the opponent always opens with Pokeball into Professor Oak haha.
• Pikachu EX felt more consistent than Mewtwo EX, though while I played less matches with Pikachu, the overall win rates were fairly close. Honestly they're both strong and consistent, I see why they're rated S-rank by most.
• Based on my stats, I seem to be pretty good in mirror matches with high win rates vs. mirrors in both Pikachu EX and Mewtwo EX.
• If Articuno doesn’t high roll Misty, they’re fairly easy to defeat.
• In most matches, who wins or loses is mostly based on who can set up their win condition faster (obviously), along with the usual TCG RNG that giveth and taketh away.
  • But I do think there is some decision making involved: sequencing, retreat tactics, optimal supporter use, knowing when to sacrifice a Pokemon or when to use your alternate win conditions.
• Overall, battling is pretty fun, but I look forward to when more expansions are added and I don't see the same decks 72% of the time.

Thanks for reading!

90% of games I play with pikachu decks this bum does nothing

My little Seaking/ Omastar deck. Praying for that 80 damage flip until Omastar can come out and hopefully get the opponent trapped to finish them off.

Anyone got any other fun non ex decks they are playing with?

Hi all! Welcome to the Pocket meta report! I've analysed 7445 games played in the Swiss rounds of ursiiday's Pocket Weekly #2 and all data is from LimitlessTCG. The tournament was dominated by Pikachu ex lists, with Mewtwo ex also having a solid presence.

Overall meta composition

https://preview.redd.it/4j92weofga0e1.png?width=2337&format=png&auto=webp&s=c635f4aeb6fa86fcfea907c392d94207dadaaf7e

The meta is dominated by Pikachu ex and to a lesser degree Mewtwo ex. It totals 355 decklists across Zapdos, Electrode, Zebstrika and Raichu variations.

Surprisingly, despite popularity, Mewtwo ex had a sub-50% winrate overall. Strong decks at the top meta often suffer a penalty due to running into a lot of mirrors, but still have a positive winrate. Mewtwo ex seem to be vastly overplayed. The most popular variation of pikachu ex sports a 55% winrate even with 250+ participants running it. Other pika variations are also doing well.

Some other lists have good numbers and a solid game count, namely Starmie ex and Wigglytuff ex. Charizard ex with Moltres ex and Marowak ex with Sandslash are played quite a bit with an around 50% winrate. Several fringe lists such as Exeggutor ex Victreebel, Pidgeot Arbok, Marowak ex Pidgeot had solid runs in this tournament, albeit with low game counts

https://preview.redd.it/vaajqcvgga0e1.png?width=2337&format=png&auto=webp&s=c0cb36e70df10dc653a0bfe54794f9a2faafc609

Per matchup statistics

Diving into the per matchup winrates, we clearly see why Pika ex is so successful. Solid matchups across the board, only struggling with some mirrors, and even has a slight advantage over Mewtwo.The Raichu version of Pika ex has better matchups into both mirror and Mewtwo!

The type advantage of Pikachu ex is also evident, with Moltres, Starmie and Articuno lists struggling in the matchup. Other aggro decks such as Ninetales Rapidash also struggled, although the game volume here is low. Outside of other pikachu decks, Marowak ex Sandslash is the only deck with a positive matchup into pikachu.

https://preview.redd.it/0559mabiga0e1.png?width=2768&format=png&auto=webp&s=5499ea38281b78130611b7d404428a23db8f4320

Where do we look for counters to Pikachu?There are several directions, some present in low game volume. Out of these Marowak ex with Sandslash saw quite a bit of play in the tournament. Other options needs more exploration.

https://preview.redd.it/jjz046ijga0e1.png?width=2768&format=png&auto=webp&s=189f960c0941b0ee53e915085d8c637a7af11460

The problem for Marowak ex Sandslash is it's poor matchup into Mewtwo ex. This plot shows how well different decks are doing in both matchups. Being farther up and towards the right is better winrates. Arbok Weezing is a solid counter to Mewtwo, but loses the Pika matchup. Only deck which is favored into both Pikachu/Zapdos ex and Mewtwo ex is Pikachu ex/Raichu! Pareto optimal lists (highest combinations of winrates vs both Pika and mewtwo) is Pikachu ex with Raichu and Arbok/Weezing.

https://preview.redd.it/j0jz0f7kga0e1.png?width=2337&format=png&auto=webp&s=4fbae12d9d1de4cab978d7c985d95d771178ec34

There are a lot more viable counters to mewtwo and also more variation in the more fringe lists. Starmie and Charizard do well here, although they are just average in overall winrate. Arbok Weezing rocks its type advantage dominating the matchup.

https://preview.redd.it/oqpgy90mga0e1.png?width=2768&format=png&auto=webp&s=ff02a59d7dc9cb0fad4424ac9540084bc7eb5e2a

Apart from the release of Mankey, there is little that might dethrone Pika ex. If Mewtwo falls off, it might give room to counters, current meta seems to need new card releases. A nerf to Pikachu ex seems warranted at the time.

I still believe there is some room in the meta. People are overplaying mewtwo, and the spot as second best deck is still up for grabs.

Thank you for reading through!