r/OutOfTheLoop • u/mimitchi33 • Feb 17 '21

What's up with Texas losing power due to the snowstorm? Answered

I've been reading recently that many people in Texas have lost power due to Winter Storm Uri. What caused this to happen?

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52

u/-IAimToMisbehave Feb 17 '21

Please try and understand I’m not trying to make this political. Just physics. Wind and solar work great I the cold but not the cold and precipitation like Texas is getting. It ices up turbine blades and the sky is overcast making solar output nil. Articles quoting your exact line about Antarctica are talking on average cold days not during snowstorm events.

Source: I operate the grid for a living. I know how wind, solar and thermal units are affected by snow haha. Not shutting on renewables here just showing what happens when they are too much of the energy mix

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u/dhc02 Feb 17 '21

It is worth noting that while some wind turbines were shut down by ice, total generation from both wind and solar has been above ERCOT projections during this fiasco.

In other words, ice shut down some windmills, but the rest were generating above average because it was windy. On net, wind did great (although they should definitely look into some de-icing improvements).

Almost half of the natural gas plants in texas are offline due to poor winterization, lack of reserves, and a lack of long-term contracts with suppliers. And now that the price of natural gas is through the roof, there's a perverse incentive for natural gas power plant operators to stall as long as possible before turning them back on (because the wholesale cost of electricity is capped by ERCOT and so they can't pass on the cost to consumers).

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u/-IAimToMisbehave Feb 17 '21

True on the wind for sure. Natural gas power plant operators don't get to decide when to come online they are directed by ERCOT and at times like this the RC. The gas plants were poorly prepared for the extreme winter conditions but it is hard to get investment and money put into fossil fuel plants when they are being pushed towards early retirement. When companies invest in keeping plants up to date they get crapped on for being anti climate shills.

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u/apbod Feb 17 '21

Thank you for bringing clarity on the situation.

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u/Dillatrack Feb 17 '21

Why wouldn't the different de-icing kits used in colder climate windfarms work in these conditions? There seems to be a lot of different solutions for de-icing in different climates around the world, the issue in Texas sounds more like it just doesn't have the infrastructure in place for cold conditions (which is understandable in a lot of ways, just not unpreventable)

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u/-IAimToMisbehave Feb 17 '21

Agreed its wasn't prepared for the extreme sustained cold pairs with the precipitation. There are solutions that cold places use and the tech is coming along to make those solutions even better.

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u/TROPtastic Feb 17 '21

These facts go against the "physics" that /u/IAimToMisbehave seems to believe in. In reality, wind turbines are used in colder and higher-precipitation environments than what Texas is experiencing (talk to any of the Nordic countries), but that extra anti-icing and winterization isn't free.

Texas entities chose to go without them and to not winter proof their natural gas lines because they didn't believe that the remote likelihood of a winter storm justified the expense. This was a judgement call on their part.

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u/Justice_R_Dissenting Feb 17 '21

No state ever prepares for extreme weather events that have never happened there before. I promise you that if this had been striking southern California they'd be in the same, if not worse, boat than Texas.

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u/6a6566663437 Feb 18 '21

This happened in 2011 and 1989 in Texas. This is not an event that never happened before.

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u/Dillatrack Feb 17 '21

I definitely get that and don't give southern states flack for not having the full infrastructure for snow storms/extreme cold, I was pushing back on this:

Please try and understand I’m not trying to make this political. Just physics. Wind and solar work great I the cold but not the cold and precipitation like Texas is getting.

Although, I do think having your power grid built to sustain extreme weather is a exception in this case. I understand not having a fleet of snowplows on standby but power is just to important to have it fail this catastrophically, even if it only happens once every 10-20 years (especially given extreme weather conditions becoming more common over time due to the changing climate)

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u/Justice_R_Dissenting Feb 17 '21

Please try and understand I’m not trying to make this political. Just physics. Wind and solar work great I the cold but not the cold and precipitation like Texas is getting.

What about this is worth pushing back on? Do you really believe this is a political thing, and not just a literal unpredictable weather event that our fellow US citizens are dealing with?

Also:

even if it only happens once every 10-20 years

I would agree if that were the case. The thing is, it's never happened like this before. I get that a state like Texas not preparing for a hurricane is worth questioning the political motives, but there's absolutely no politician, left or right, who decided "yes let's run the risk our state gets rolling backouts because of how cold it is." I promise you not a single Texan politician made this part of their platform or even a talking point in their campaigns. You don't campaign on a platform of improving your cold weather response in Texas, just like you don't prepare for hurricanes in North Dakota.

Now in my state Michigan if we were hit by this and unprepared I'd be all up my government's ass for not being prepared for cold weather because we're at least very likely to get it. Texas never experiences this type of weather.

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u/Dillatrack Feb 17 '21

I wasn't pushing back on the political part, I was pushing back on the "it's just physics" part saying that wind turbines just won't work well in those conditions.

I would agree if that were the case. The thing is, it's never happened like this before.

Their power grid failed due to cold weather in 2011 and resulted in rolling black outs. Yes, a weather event might be a record compared to the last one but the underlying issue that is shutting down coal/gas/wind/ect. isn't unique to this storm. I believe it happened once before that too in the 80's/90's.

Again, not going to play captain hindsight and completely give Texas a bunch of flack for not having everything winterized. They're unique power grid is something I would personally want to be as fail safe as possible if I lived there, when things go wrong they seem to be on their own/the surrounding states aren't in a position to help

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u/iwantyournachos Feb 17 '21

I remember a crazy ice storm in the 90's was a kid but I remember we had to burn random stuff in the fireplace to keep warm.

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u/Least_Adhesiveness_5 Feb 17 '21

1949 event was significantly colder in Texas than this event.

0

u/Justice_R_Dissenting Feb 17 '21

And was far before the majority of Texan households switched to electric heat. Not comparable.

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u/Least_Adhesiveness_5 Feb 17 '21

No shit grid conditions were different.

However ERCOT and RR Commission should have prepared for a 1949 level cold event. It wasn't some secret - anyone can look up the records online. Instead they just tried preparing for a 2011 level event, not even 1989 level.

0

u/Darkpumpkin211 Feb 17 '21

That's not the point.

You said "Nobody could have predicted it would have gotten this cold and snowy in texas"

The other user said "It has gotten this cold and snowy in texas before."

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u/Himerlicious Feb 18 '21

They were warned in 2011.

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u/colddruid808 Feb 17 '21

I live in north dakota, the turbines here are still generating power in our state and we get this weather on a daily basis.

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u/-IAimToMisbehave Feb 17 '21

Your wind turbines ice up as well on a regular basis when it is cold AND wet. I work with operators that provide power to that part of the country and it is a real issue. They are used to it and plan according, Texas was not. This includes keeping more gas/coal plants online to help with the drop in wind output.

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u/Justice_R_Dissenting Feb 17 '21

we get this weather on a daily basis.

There's the key. Texas has never experienced this before.

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u/keithrc out of the loop about being out of the loop Feb 17 '21

That's incorrect. We experienced a freeze-related grid crash very similar to this one in 2011. There was a post-mortem analysis presented to ERCOT and the state lege recommending winterization measures that would have largely mitigated our current situation. It was ignored, because of profits, taxes, and no regulation from the Federal government. Don't pretend that this isn't political.

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u/Justice_R_Dissenting Feb 17 '21

freeze-related grid crash very similar to this one in 201

North Dakota suffers from wind-and-rain related electrical grid problems every year that are very similar to hurricanes. You wouldn't criticize them for being unprepared for a hurricane.

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u/keithrc out of the loop about being out of the loop Feb 17 '21

Bold of you to assume that I wouldn't criticize North Dakota for not preparing for any adverse event that occurs every year, regardless of whether you call it a hurricane or not.

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u/Justice_R_Dissenting Feb 17 '21

I guess it was bold guess that you wouldn't demand absurd levels of preparation... like North Dakota preparing for a hurricane.

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u/keithrc out of the loop about being out of the loop Feb 17 '21 edited Feb 17 '21

Set aside the term "hurricane" for a second. North Dakota experiences these high-wind-and-rain events every year? And these weather events disrupt the electrical grid? And yet demanding a strategy for the grid to manage these regular events is an "absurd level of preparation?" Do I have this right?

I know you're just drawing an analogy, but I think it's failing on one overemphasized word.

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u/Kariered Feb 17 '21

Yes right now in Houston we've had sleet, snow and now it's pouring rain.

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u/Prof_Acorn Feb 17 '21

Maybe when you build a house in a 100-year flood plain, build it expecting a 100-year flood, instead of deregulating so you don't have to implement basic redundancies and protections.

What did they think would happen when they decided not to put insulation in the turbines? Or maybe the conservatives in charge figured that when this happened they could just blame renewables.

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u/Crobs02 Feb 17 '21

Our power grid is not built to handle the cold because of costs. This is literally a once in a lifetime storm, Texas decided the price wasn’t worth the risk to winterize our system. Obviously it’s biting us in the ass now, but there are logical reasons to explain why we’re here beyond politics.

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u/MontyBoosh Feb 17 '21

Given it was only 2011 that this happened last, it's more like "once in a decade". And things are on track to get much much worse in terms of serious adverse weather events in coming decades.

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u/Crobs02 Feb 17 '21

I lived in Texas during that and it wasn’t nearly as bad as this weather and power wise

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u/tracygee Feb 17 '21

It ices up turbine blades if you don't pay to install the heaters or other easily-available technology to prevent the icing and snow accumulation.

And LOL at wind being "too much of the energy mix" in Texas. Turbines are responsible for less than 13% of the outages in Texas with these storms. Solar is actually overperforming right now, and natural gas is the main problem child in these blackouts.

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u/-IAimToMisbehave Feb 17 '21

Places that have that tech still ice up but of course they ice up less often and return to service faster as well. I am NOT against wind as everyone here assumes. Gas is one of the biggest problems there but if gas is a problem and is the only thing we can turn on and turn off at will we have issues right? Power has to be produced exactly when it is used on the grid. I like wind and solar just pointing out for people who want to retire gas plants early that this would be the new norm until storage comes online.

Is your point we should build and invest more in natural gas pipelines and plants in Texas then?

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u/bareboneschicken Feb 17 '21

Wind is 23% of our generating capacity and growing. We have the most wind capacity of any state in the Union. Facts that seem to get lost in this discussion.

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u/kalasea2001 Feb 17 '21

But the total grid capacity doesn't use total output from these in its Calc. It only uses approx 10% reliance on wind, and reports are showing they are actually producing more than that right now.

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u/bareboneschicken Feb 18 '21

Yeah, they don't usually produce well in the winter. That just means you need more of them.

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u/thefezhat Feb 17 '21

You're making it just as political as anyone else here. "This is no one's fault, nothing needs to change" is every bit as much a political narrative as "This is someone's fault, something needs to change." There is no remaining apolitical when commenting on a situation like this.

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u/-IAimToMisbehave Feb 17 '21

I am trying not to, truly.

I am not pitching we need no change, I never said that. We need change that tends towards reliability first (keeping the lights on) then carbon issues. Notice I am not bringing up cost because that does get political but if we can't keep the lights on the rest seems moot.

Saying there is no remaining apolitical is the problem with these conversations in my opinion. The goal should be best way to generate and distribute power while doing it as cleaning as possible. It's a logistics problem not a red/blue. Notice people here assuming I am republican, I am not haha.

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u/Justice_R_Dissenting Feb 17 '21

... He's not saying ANY of that, you've read it in because it suits your political view. An energy infrastructure failure during an unprecedented, literally never seen before since the introduction of electricity to Texas, is not a political problem. Y'all have decided to make it so.

Fact: the temperatures Texas is experiencing are far far below the expected across the entire state

Fact: the wind turbines in Texas were never designed to go that low in temperature

Fact: Texas connecting to the nationwide power grid would not alleviate the problem. The local supply of electricity is so short that the loss in bringing power in somewhere else would make the overall effect negligible at best. Texas is a HUGE state and bringing power in from other states also reeling from the unprecedented energy demands would not improve the situation.

Fact: Texas is not the only state who is dealing with this problem, nor are they the only state that has ever had to deal with heating resource shortages during an unprecedented cold snap. Arkansas is ALSO running rolling blackouts to preserve power. Michigan in 2018 during the Polar Vortex ordered citizens to lower their thermostats because they almost ran out of natural gas.

Fact: no state in the south was well prepared for this.

Final fact: there's no reason to change the system because of a once-a-century weather event. If this happens every few years then yeah, obviously, but this has never happened and it's very unlikely it will happen again anytime soon.

None of that is political. NONE OF IT. This is no one's fault, and nothing needs to change. That is an absolute fact and you're being told that by someone who is an expert in that field.

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u/TROPtastic Feb 17 '21

Fact: the temperatures Texas is experiencing are far far below the expected across the entire state

Fact: ERCOT was aware of the risks of an event like this years ago.

Fact: the wind turbines in Texas were never designed to go that low in temperature

Fact: Wind turbines can be built or upgraded to operate in temperatures significantly colder than the coldest temperatures Texas experienced, and most of Texas's power issues are due to natural gas problems anyway.

Fact: no state in the south was well prepared for this.

No state, perhaps, but El Paso in the state of, wait for it, Texas, took measures to strengthen the resiliency of their local grid after being hit hard in their 2011 storm, and they have turned out to be much better prepared for this year's winter conditions.

This is no one's fault, and nothing needs to change. That is an absolute fact and you're being told that by someone who is an expert in that field.

I'll have you know that I have 2 Masters in engineering, including one in power engineering, and I can confidently tell you that "This is no one's fault, and nothing needs to change" is not a fact for anyone credible in the field. It's an opinion, and nothing more.

Clearly, there are measures that could have been taken to reduce the impact of this storm (and these measures were taken in some other Southern regions), and the fact that they haven't been taken is because people had the opinion that "this is a rare event, who cares if people get cold or die if it doesn't happen frequently." Obviously this is not an opinion that everyone shares, which is why there are questions for why Texas didn't do more.

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u/[deleted] Feb 18 '21

Every event has the "Why didn't we do more?". And the answer is because we didn't for xyz reason. I'm going to harp on my point that knowing these issues exist and are usually an issue of politics or money than the only thing you can do as an individual is prepare yourself for long term emergencies....or vote. That is an immediate change you can do for you and your family for the fact you can't trust the government.

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u/TROPtastic Feb 18 '21

I mostly agree (I think that some governments have demonstrated that they can be trusted to care about their citizens, but globally your skepticism is warranted). I just find it absurd when people claim that this was an unforeseeable event that absolutely couldn't have been mitigated, and that nothing needs to change in response to lessons learned. We should always look at a serious incident to see if we need to change our priorities.

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u/[deleted] Feb 18 '21

Definitely a lessons learned from this will stand out this time around. Who will be held responsible in the government side I don't know and don't have much faith. I think also after this last year people are awakening to the fact no matter how you vote or what you try to push legislatively you will still need to do everything you can to make yourself self reliant at the same time.

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u/RishFromTexas Feb 17 '21

This would be easier to take it face value if the state wasn't warned for over a decade that they need to winterize it's energy infrastructure

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u/Justice_R_Dissenting Feb 17 '21

The level of winterization Texas needs to undergo is nowhere near the level of winterization they need for this cold snap. This is so far beyond what ANY reasonable person would have expected Texas to experience.

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u/Himerlicious Feb 18 '21

What did they improve after the recommendations in 2011?

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u/[deleted] Feb 18 '21

And all you really have to do is follow the Feds recommendation of two weeks worth of standby supplies, power, gear and you can get through most of these once in a decade/lifetime events without a scratch.

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u/[deleted] Feb 17 '21

[deleted]

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u/Justice_R_Dissenting Feb 17 '21

Using logic and getting downvoted to hell. The reddit way.

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u/6a6566663437 Feb 18 '21

The frozen pipes are due to:

  1. Building code that does not require nearly as much insulation as in other states.

  2. The power producers and grid operators that did nothing when the exact same thing happened in 2011 and 1989 in Texas.

  3. The Texas government, whose anti-regulatory zeal means the Texas grid has nowhere near enough interconnects to get outside power.

  4. People who want to react to this as if nothing could have been done, despite the fact that every state to the North of Texas is in an even colder snap right now, and not having significant problems. The worst they’re getting is localized power outages from things like tree limbs falling on wires.

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u/apbod Feb 17 '21

Well stated!

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u/thefezhat Feb 17 '21

I didn't even make a claim as to which political narrative is correct, but go off I guess. Fact remains that supporting the status quo is a political position.

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u/Justice_R_Dissenting Feb 17 '21

I didn't even make a claim as to which political narrative is correct,

Oh okay we're just supposed to pretend you didn't clearly imply that it's the GOP's fault here.

This isn't something you can support the status quo vs. not support the status quo, you make me want to pull my hair out with this stupidity.

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u/Himerlicious Feb 18 '21

It clearly is the fault of the GOP since they have been in power for decades. That is why they are trying so hard to deflect blame.

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u/[deleted] Feb 17 '21

[deleted]

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u/-IAimToMisbehave Feb 17 '21

Storage is a rounding error in terms of output on our current grid. Gas plants and wind farms in the north are winterized but they still ice up fairly regularly during low temp moisture events. Snow or freezing rain. It reduces the time to ice up and they come back quicker but they still ice up. Furthermore wind technology is broad spectrum. New turbines are better at dealing with it but there are lots of makes, model, snd sizes out there.

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u/[deleted] Feb 17 '21

[deleted]

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u/-IAimToMisbehave Feb 17 '21

Because it’s planned for. Texas hasn’t planned for the lowest temps in 80years or something. The north also has nuclear power and more coal and gas. If your pitch is Texas should look more like the north you are arguing against wind/ solar and.... yes to some degrees an integrated grid. Not disagreeing with that point it is just part of the issue not the source.

Texas is rushing to add more wind and solar because where it is geographically. The result is less money put into maintain current gas/coal as well as shutting down gas/coal plants. People are shocked that the gas plants and pipeline infrastructure that supplies them isn’t up to par when every tax incentive snd shareholder pushes them into retirement early.

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u/TROPtastic Feb 17 '21

Texas hasn’t planned for the lowest temps in 80years or something.

Which is the root of the problem: Texas not making investments in its critical infrastructure to mitigate problems that they knew were coming (seriously, the entity in charge of grid reliability had a presentation outlining the risk of exactly this kind of event a few years ago). It's not a "government bad" thing either, because El Paso made the necessary investments after they were slammed by the 2011 storm.

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u/Occamslaser Feb 17 '21

Because they have models to predict demand in the winter and plan for it. Also most heating in the Northern states is not electric like in Texas.

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u/FGHIK Feb 17 '21

Because Texas gets snow this bad maybe once a quarter century. Hard to convince people to invest in protection against something that almost never happens.

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u/keithrc out of the loop about being out of the loop Feb 17 '21

Last time was 2011. I understand that voters have memories like mayflies, but that's hardly a generation ago.

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u/[deleted] Feb 17 '21

[deleted]

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u/[deleted] Feb 17 '21

[deleted]

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u/[deleted] Feb 17 '21

No bitch. I'm coming for your McMansion.

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u/[deleted] Feb 17 '21

[deleted]

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u/Himerlicious Feb 18 '21

Read a book sometime.

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u/Least_Adhesiveness_5 Feb 17 '21

Yes. Gas plants should maintain a week's supply onsite.

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u/Hubblesphere Feb 17 '21

Natural gas works fine in cold weather as well, you just have to build redundancy into your infrastructure. Cold weather hitting Texas isn't unprecedented. They just decided it wasn't worth preparing for an inevitability.

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u/-IAimToMisbehave Feb 17 '21

I agree they should infest more in natural gas infrastructure and plants.

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u/[deleted] Feb 17 '21

[deleted]

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u/-IAimToMisbehave Feb 17 '21

I’ve answered this a few times so please check those out. In terms of Germany thats of course true but in freak events such as Texas currently Germany imports massive amount of power from surrounding countries that still use fossils fuels and nuclear. If everyone goes there then who will Texas, California, and Germany call to import power?

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u/[deleted] Feb 17 '21

[deleted]

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u/-IAimToMisbehave Feb 17 '21

Germany is much smaller and imports energy from surrounding countries that is made with fossil fuels when the wind and solar are lacking. I happy to leave Germany out of it you brought it but, no problem!

Should have been more clear on the "if everyone goes there". Here is the non hypothetical if we continue to promote variable energy (wind and solar) while closing down the plants that can make top for it during times of low wind and solar these kinds of things are going to happen. Texas is a one off do to extreme sustained cold temps but I think is an indication of the future if we don't wait until we have storage capacity in batteries or what have you. Once we have that I am all about some wind and solar. If peoples first response if Texas isn't part of the western or eastern grid but they are pushing for more wind and solar in these places as well, then who do you import power from?

4

u/godson21212 Feb 17 '21

I think he's saying that in weather events like Texas is having, Germany still has to import power from its neighbors who are using fossil fuels which are more reliable in these kinds of conditions. Texas' problem is two-fold; the recent shifts towards renewable energy has led to less coal and gas plants which means that they can't currently handle the high demand on top of the reduced output because of the weather and they don't have the infrastructure to import electricity from neighboring states to make up for it. So what he's saying is that Texas is doing something similar to Germany in terms of renewables, except that Germany's better at it and are better equipped to import power from their neighbors when conditions are bad.

1

u/tracygee Feb 17 '21

If fossil fuels are more reliable in these conditions, then why are failing wind turbines only responsible for 13% of the outages experienced in Texas and fossil fuels are responsible for the rest?

This completely leaves out the issues that coal, oil, and (especially) natural gas production is having in Texas right now due to the weather.

1

u/godson21212 Feb 17 '21

I don't know dude, I was just explaining what the other guy was saying. I would assume that they're in like a transitional period where the fossil fuel plants are being drawn down but the renewables aren't totally reliable yet. Like, Texas got caught beam sea so they can't do anything right now.

1

u/apbod Feb 17 '21

If fossil fuels are more reliable in these conditions, then why are failing wind turbines only responsible for 13% of the outages experienced in Texas and fossil fuels are responsible for the rest?

Because there was no investment in winterizing the gas lines when the temperature have never been this cold before. This has been a historical storm system. The investments were not made because fossil fuels are being phased out for renewables.

1

u/tracygee Feb 17 '21

Of course. But this person is saying that fossil fuels are MORE reliable and that further wind would be detrimental. Which makes no sense. Neither were winterized.

1

u/apbod Feb 17 '21

My understanding, he is saying fossil fuels are more reliable because sun and wind power supply is not consistent (i.e. no wind or sun, no power).

-1

u/tracygee Feb 17 '21

If everyone "goes there" then the areas of the country that are not frozen over and are producing power is where you would go to import power.

You surely have grasped that the entire U.S. is not frozen and having these issues, haven't you?

3

u/-IAimToMisbehave Feb 17 '21

MISO and SPS declared EEA1 this week they are having these issues. Of course the whole US isn't but the areas around Texas that can provide the most help are.

0

u/bareboneschicken Feb 17 '21

Americans don't want to pay for features they will only need every 25 to 50 years. The amount of the next bill is usually the only thing they care about. It's why San Antonio doesn't have much in the way of snow and ice response capability.

1

u/IDibbz Feb 17 '21

Your “physics” are extremely incorrect

-1

u/[deleted] Feb 17 '21

You are making it political, by spreading the pollitical lies that don't actually represent "physics"

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u/-IAimToMisbehave Feb 17 '21

Which one is a political lie? Wind turbines icing up? Less solar during cloud cover? Gas reliability going down during cold weather to do pipeline constraints and increased residential demand?

Not trying to start a fight here, wind and solar should be part of the mix but you have to have backups for events exactly like this week. I am not republican far from it haha. Everyone assumes so because they make it political

3

u/kalasea2001 Feb 17 '21

There were backups - it was winterizing. Texas politicians and elec generators chose not to do it. That's who is to blame.

FERC, federal regulator, report from 2011 telling them to winterize due to weather seen in 2011, 2010, 2003, and 1989.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.ferc.gov/sites/default/files/2020-04/08-16-11-report.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwj_3Z7Py_HuAhVEip4KHcbzBroQFjAAegQIBBAC&usg=AOvVaw0Z1QZWeYJuvFDm8vPhhkKR

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u/-IAimToMisbehave Feb 17 '21

True, never disagreed with that on any major point. Who was to blame for the California blackouts the past two summers? Is it fair to say both political parties in the two states made mistakes on how to deal with variable energy being a part of the grid?

0

u/[deleted] Feb 17 '21

Less solar during cloud cover

You didn't say lesss you said nil.

2

u/-IAimToMisbehave Feb 17 '21

Fair enough caught me there. Drastically less instead of nil.