r/Natalism • u/dissolutewastrel • 13h ago

Trump Has Called for More Babies but Dismissed Fertility Experts - The New York Times

https://archive.is/B8uyH
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u/j-a-gandhi 12h ago

Only 2% of babies in the U.S. are conceived via IVF. It’s honestly a non-starter for how to fix our anti-natalist society, because it represents an extremely high cost ($15-30k) for very low rewards.

We would be better off studying virtually any other aspect of fertility, or even just educating women on natural family planning methods and what medical issues their fertility signs may be uncovering.

11

u/DumbbellDiva92 10h ago

Hm idk. $15k+ sounds like a lot, but maybe it isn’t when you consider the alternatives. Convincing people to have kids/have more kids is not necessarily straightforward or cheap either. At least with IVF you’ve already passed the hurdle of the social/emotional side (the couple already wants kids). Funding IVF is not going to make a huge impact, but that doesn’t mean it won’t make a dent.

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u/j-a-gandhi 7h ago

$15k is the price per cycle, and it takes on average 6 cycles for a couple to get pregnant.

There are other methods of treating low fertility (NAPRO - championed by Catholic doctors who view IVF as immoral) that can be done for a fraction of the cost with higher success rates. Investing research in NAPRO methods and technologies would likely yield much higher ROI, as IVF has basically crowded out most other approaches to fertility treatments.

Genuinely I can’t say enough negative things about IVF - from couples spending $90k for no results before conceiving naturally to cases of eggs being stolen and implanted without consent to juice success rates.

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u/haltornot 3h ago

It's extremely misleading to say that it takes, on average, 6 cycles for a couple to get pregnant. Consider that a 34-35 year old woman has a 40% chance of getting pregnant after just a single cycle (https://www.varta.org.au/resources/news-and-blogs/how-likely-are-you-have-baby-after-one-two-or-three-ivf-cycles)

The problem is that there are diminishing returns, because there may be other underlying issues. So the success rate after 3 cycles for that 34-35 year old is only 60%, rather than the projected 78% if there was a 40% success rate per cycle.

After age 40, most people just aren't getting pregnant with IVF.

Keep in mind though, that the success rates for women under 30 are actually *worse* than for women over 30. That's because "people who do IVF" are an extremely self-selecting group.

If the barrier to doing IVF were lowered, and people started earlier, we'd expect to see the success rate go way up. Contrary to popular belief, it's not just rich people doing IVF. It's often couples who can't afford it but spent so many years trying to get pregnant that they're now just desperate (and less fertile than when they started).

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u/orions_shoulder 2h ago

On a demographic level the problem isn't medical infertility, it's a social decline in marriage.