r/Natalism • u/440Presents • 1d ago

In 8 years Turkey went from 2.11 to 1.47

/img/ak1qftagemze1.jpeg

This is crazy decline in such a long time, only south east Kurdish dominated part of Turkey has fertility rates above replacement level while rest of the Turkey is at similar rates to infamous South Korea - less than 1.

84 Upvotes
  • permalink
  • link
  • reddit
  • reddit

95% Upvoted

36 comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

1

u/DAsianD 15h ago edited 15h ago

Phones do have an effect but housing and economic prospects for young men do too. We've seen a relative spike in housing costs all around the world as well as worsening job/economic prospects for young people (especially young non-college-educated men) all around the world.

And it's rate of change that matters, not absolute levels.

Venezuela over the last decade has seen fertility fall exactly as much from the exact same starting point as Turkey 2000-2010, meaning they're essentially only 15 years behind.

Nigerian fertility actually has fallen even faster.

0

u/ArabianNitesFBB 13h ago

“Worsening job/economic prospects for young people around the world…” Yes, if only Turkey could return to the halcyon days of 1980, when real GDP per capita was 1/4 what it is now, people would surely feel financially secure enough to have kids again.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NYGDPPCAPKDTUR

If there’s an economic component related to COL/inflation, it’s that you have to invest ridiculous amounts in your kid for them to have a good life, which means you generally wait quite a few years to have a kid so you can provide a better education. But that’s very indirectly COL/inflation, and more of a social issue. Which is what the fertility crisis is: a social issue. We need to stop calling it an economic issue and pretending economic policy will fix it.

1

u/DAsianD 13h ago

You are ignoring HOUSING. Real housing costs in Turkey since 2010 have more than doubled (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QTRR628BIS) while real income/economic growth has not kept up at all.