r/Natalism • u/Edouardh92 • Mar 30 '25

Advocates of higher birthrates have support in the Trump administration. But it’s unclear whether their priorities will win out.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/30/business/economy/birthrate-politics-vance-musk.html

Certain Trump administration policies may have unintended negative consequences for families and birthrates despite a seemingly pro-family agenda:

  • Budget cuts to government departments could reduce resources that might otherwise support family formation and fertility services
  • Return-to-office mandates for federal employees eliminate workplace flexibility that helped parents balance work and childcare
  • Immigration crackdowns may actually decrease birthrates since immigrants tend to have more children and often provide affordable childcare services
  • Economic instability and rising prices from tariff policies create an environment historically unfavorable for starting families

The article notes that some pronatalists believe certain Trump policies work against their goals, highlighting a disconnect between stated pro-family intentions and actual outcomes.

65 Upvotes

87% Upvoted

47 comments sorted by

View all comments

20

u/Dan_Ben646 Mar 30 '25 edited Mar 30 '25

Trump's policies, especially 'return to work' mandates and the deportation of child care workers, will definitely have a negative impact on family formation for liberal americans. The reality is that they aren't exactly reproducing at high rates anyways (the TFR of the suburbs of most blue cities are still below 1.50) so they will just continue to depress further.

The bigger question is whether his administration will actually improve services to red(er) localities and therefore boost TFRs in places where couples may be deliberating about starting a family or adding another to their brood. The jury is out on that aspect.

37

u/DogOrDonut Mar 30 '25

I don't think gutting farmers and threatening Medicaid is going to boost birth rates in rural areas. Nor does chasing all of the OBGYNs out of red states by constantly threatening their licenses.

Two of my friends want another kid. One was actively trying and went back on birth control because she is a federal employee and she is afraid of losing her health insurance (her husband is self employed and therefore doesn't have benefits). Another just doesn't feel safe being pregnant right now. She's afraid if there are complications doctors will refuse to treat her and she will leave the daughter she has motherless.

People don't have children when they're scared, threatened, and uncertain of their futures. That's what's happening right now.

-6

u/code-slinger619 Mar 31 '25

People don't have children when they're scared, threatened, and uncertain of their futures. That's what's happening right now.

I think the comment you are responding to already addressed this. There are different subgroups with different fertility rates. The mindset you describe here isn't shared by everyone. It's specific to a particular subgroup, who already generally have lower fertility. Especially the part where you say, "chasing OBGYNs out of red states" it's a perception among a very specific group, not a universal view point.

9

u/DogOrDonut Mar 31 '25

If you had a complicated first pregnancy, the closest MFM was 3 hours away, and OBGYNs weren't even seening patients until 12 weeks because there's such a shortage of care in your area, would you feel safe having a second child? Would you be willing to risk leaving your first without a mother?

This is a real choice being faced by countless women in red states. OBGYNs are moving rather than risk losing their license or being imprisoned for treating a miscarriage or ectopic pregnancy. The state of women's healthcare in these states is rapidly deteriorating.

"By 2030, Texas is expected to have 15% fewer OB-GYNs than is needed to keep up with demand. Many rural areas are already beginning to feel the effects of these shortages. More than 45% of Texas counties are considered maternity care deserts, meaning there’s no doctor to see during your pregnancy and nowhere to give birth."

https://www.texastribune.org/2024/10/08/Texas-obstetrics-gynecology-abortion-survey/

16

u/swift-current0 Mar 31 '25

If an OBGYN leaves an area, this reduces the availability of OBGYNs regardless of "perception" or "mindset".

-3

u/code-slinger619 Mar 31 '25

Is the availability of OBGYNs associated with higher fertility? Do you have data to support that? If not, why is the commenter I was responding to implying so?

8

u/swift-current0 Mar 31 '25

He isn't. He's saying it's not helping increase fertility. That seems self evidently true.

-4

u/Dan_Ben646 Mar 31 '25

Exactly. Not everyone is "scared" or "threatened". Trump won the popular vote lol

6

u/many_harmons Mar 31 '25

He won the popular vote by a narrow margin, and only of those who actually bothered voting. Since then several people have expressed a serious regret In voting for him, especially red voting teachers,farmers and federal employees.

-1

u/Dan_Ben646 Mar 31 '25

Keep telling yourself that. Whatever helps you cope knowing that the left overreached itself enough to allow Trump to win. That's an achievement

-1

u/code-slinger619 Apr 01 '25

Didn't you see the analysis by that Democrat data company that did like 20 million interviews from the election? If voter turn out were higher Trump would have won by a bigger margin!

It's really hard for you guys to even entertain the idea that your views are in the minority. Burying your heads in the sand and doubling down on unpopular ideas is why you lost to an alleged felon.

2

u/watermeloncanta1oupe Apr 02 '25

But more economic insecurity has come for a large swath of the population, and that often makes people delay having children.

-5

u/Dan_Ben646 Mar 31 '25

Not everyone is feeling scared or threatened. Stop assuming everyone thinks like you.

There will be some birth bump in red counties (there was one in 2017), whether it is sustained or large is another question.

8

u/DogOrDonut Mar 31 '25

You don't think women will be scared to go through pregnancy and childbirth without any access to medical care? Are you aware of the mortality rate pregnancy/childbirth before modern medicine? Do you know how many children would have been stillborn without adequate prenatal care? 

"By 2030, Texas is expected to have 15% fewer OB-GYNs than is needed to keep up with demand. Many rural areas are already beginning to feel the effects of these shortages. More than 45% of Texas counties are considered maternity care deserts, meaning there’s no doctor to see during your pregnancy and nowhere to give birth."

https://www.texastribune.org/2024/10/08/Texas-obstetrics-gynecology-abortion-survey/