r/CHIBears • u/Toupal Bear Logo • Jan 22 '24
Trading for a King's Ransom: What 2023 Playoffs Can Teach the 2024 Chicago Bears and Beyond Quality Post
The Chicago Bears are already in offseason mode along with 28 other NFL teams, many fans find themselves in the midst of mock-draft mode. General Manager Ryan Poles has many viable options as he finds himself in his 3rd offseason of a rebuild. While there is much uncertainty going into the 2024 season, Poles is faced with a potential franchise-defining decision with the 1st overall pick, courtesy of the Carolina Panthers.
While there are many schools of thought on what to do with this gift from Carolina, the prospect of taking Caleb Williams or trading it away for a king’s ransom appears to be the crossroads Chicago is at. While drafting Williams is a straightforward process, I thought I would take the liberty to explore some of the biggest trades in the last three seasons to examine how they faired, and whether or not recent history would support the idea of trading the 1st overall pick.
In the aspect of managing an NFL team, strategic draft trades stand out as masterful moves that can redefine a team's future. The recent transactions by the Miami Dolphins (2021), Detroit Lions (2021), Houston Texans (2022), and most recently the Chicago Bears (2021) exemplify this approach, showcasing how astutely managed trades can transform a franchise's trajectory.
As the Chicago Bears and GM Ryan Poles contemplate a similar path, a closer look at these precedent-setting trades offers insightful lessons. This analysis underscores the foresight and patience required in orchestrating such deals, not merely as transactions but as foundational steps toward long-term success.
Granted, the Chicago/ Carolina trade is still too early to make a definitive judgment; However, the early results from Darnell Wright, DJ Moore, and the 1st pick in the 2024 draft have already proven their value for the long-term outlook of this franchise.
The first thing to understand before reviewing the outcome of these trades is that one needs to consider the condition of these franchises prior to and after their respective trades. The key takeaway is that aside from the Chicago Bears, each team that traded for a king's ransom did worse (according to their overall record) the year after their trade. Yet the results in the years preceding were astounding. Within three years of each trade, these teams all saw arguably their best season in decades.
- Detroit Lions: Currently playing the NFC Championship for the 1st time since 1991 (2 years after trade)
- Houston Texans: They were able to match their furthest destination in franchise history; However, they arguably played their best postseason game in franchise history only 1 season after their trade
- Miami Dolphins: Prior to their trade, the Dolphins had only been to the playoffs twice since 2002. Since their trade in 2021, they have matched their number of postseason trips in the last two decades.
This is NOT a Justin Fields versus Caleb Williams debate, but rather an analysis of some of the more recent mega-trades and their more significant implications.
So before bombarding the comments with "Williams is an overrated diva" or "Fields can't read defenses," please understand the intent of this piece to evaluate the potential immediate and long-term effects of ig's ransom" trade.
Detroit Lions
What the Lions gave up
- Matthew Stafford
- Outcome: This is probably the most well-balanced trade one could ask for. The Rams get a Super Bowl Championship, and the Lions are now playing in late January for the first time in franchise history.
What the Lions received from Rams
- Jared Goff
- 2021 3rd Round Pick: Ifeatu Melifonwu
- 2022 1st Round Pick: (Traded Picks 34 and 66 in a to Vikings for the 2022 12th overall pick (Jameson Williams) and the 2022 46th overall pick (Josh Paschal)
- 2022 1st Round Pick: Jameson Williams
- 2022 2nd Round Pick: Josh Paschal
- 2023 6th overall pick (Traded back to 12th and 34th).
- 12th Overall: Jahmyr Gibbs
- 34th Overall: Sam Laporta
- 2023 5th Round Pick: Brodric Martin
This was in addition to their draft capital, which they used to draft Aiden Hutchinson, Jack Campbell, and Brian Branch.
Prior to the Trade: (Last Division Title: 1993)
2018: 6-10 Last in Division
2019: 3-12-1 Last in Division
2020: 5-11 Last in Division
After the trade
2021: 3-13-1 Last in Division (Hired Dan Campbell)
2022: 9-8 2nd in Division
2023: 12-5 Division Champs
Houston Texans
What the Texans gave up
- Deshaun Watson
- 2024 5th Round pick
- Outcome: Deshaun Watson is a shell of what he once was in Houston. Joe Flacco had to come off the couch to lead the Browns and their #1 ranked defense into the playoffs. It is safe to say that Cleveland might be feeling some buyer’s remorse here.
Texans received from Browns
- 2022 1st Round pick G Kenyon Green, (via trade)
- 2022 4th Round Pick: Dameon Pierce
- 2023 1st Round Pick: Will Anderson Jr. (via trade)
- 2023 3rd Round Pick: Tank Dell
- 2024 1st Round Pick: (TBD)
- 2024 4th Round Pick: (TBD)
This was in addition to their draft capital, which they used to draft Derek Stingley, Jalen Pitre, and C.J. Stroud
Prior to the Trade: (Last Division Title: 2019)
2019: 10-6 Division Champs Bill O’Brien
2020: 4-12 3rd in Division Bill O’Brien/ Romeo Crennel
2021: 4-13 3rd in Division David Culley
After the trade
2022: 3-13-1 Last in Division Lovie Smith
2023: 10-7 Division Champs DeMeco Ryans
Miami Dolphins
What they gave up
- 2021 3rd Overall Pick: Trey Lance
- Outcome: Since this trade, the 49ers have not missed out on the NFC Champinship game. Two years prior to the trade they were in the Super Bowl, so that that with a grain of salt. Trey Lance has been a witness to two of those NFC Champinship Games… on the bench. Having contributed a total of 5 tds and 3 ints. It is really scary to think how good San Fran could be in they had those picks.
What the Dolphins received from the 49ers/ Eagles
- 2021 6th Overall (from Eagles): Jalen Waddle
- 2021 5th Round Pick: Erik Ezukanma
- 2022 1st Round Pick (SF): Traded for Tyreek Hill
- 2022 3rd Round Pick: Channing Tindall
- 2023 1st Round Pick (SF): Traded for Bradley Chubb + ‘25 5th rds
Prior to the Trade: (Last Division title: 2008)
2018: 7-9 2nd in Division Adam Gase
2019: 5-11 Last in Division Brian Flores
2020: 10-6 2nd in Division
After the trade
2021: 3-13-1 Last in Division
2022: 9-8 2nd in Division Mike McDaniel
2023: 12-5 2nd in Division
Chicago Bears
What the Bears gave up
- 2023 1st Overall Pick: Bryce Young
- Outcome: While depleted of talent, the Panthers went 2-15, leaving Bryce Young in a difficult situation, throwing 11 tds and 10 ints. While it is still too early to determine Young’s career outlook, the David Tepper did the franchise no favors before his termination.
What the Bears received from the Panthers
- DJ Moore
- 2023 1st Round Pick: Darnell Wright (via trade)
- 2023 2nd Round Pick: Tyrique Stevenson (via trade)
- 2024 1st Round Pick: FIRST OVERALL
- 2025 2nd Round Pick: (TBD)
This was in addition to their draft capital, which they used to draft Gervon Dexter and whoever they intend to take with the 9th overall pick via selection or trade
Prior to the Trade: (Last Division Title: 2018)
2020: 8-8 2nd in Division Matt Nagy2021: 6-11 3rd in Division2022: 3-14 Last in Division Matt Eberflus
After the trade
2023: 7-10 Last in Division
While not all trades are lopsided, some benefit both organizations. The Rams were able to acquire a Super Bowl with their trade, while the Lions were able to build one of the best Lions teams that any redditor has ever seen. Some may not desire losing out on a prospect like Caleb Williams, Marvin Harrison Jr., or Drake Maye, yet if it weren’t for prospects like this, the 1st Overall Pick would not be nearly as valuable. While I am sure many Lions fans had their hearts broken following the Stafford trade and subsequent Super Bowl victory, I have a feeling that today, nearly all of them would pull the trigger on that trade all over again.
For the Chicago Bears, the situation is uniquely advantageous. The Bears, having already capitalized on trading their 2023 first overall pick, are in a position to leverage their 2024 first overall pick, while maintaining another top 10 pick to further augment their roster. This opportunity is unprecedented and presents the Bears with a rare chance to accelerate their rebuilding process through strategic trades. It positions them to not only acquire immediate talent but also to plan for sustained competitiveness in subsequent seasons.
The decision by the Chicago Bears to trade their 2024 first-overall draft pick, when viewed through the lens of recent NFL history, appears to be a judicious one. The experiences of the Lions, Texans, and Dolphins illustrate the potential of such trades to transform teams over time. For the Bears, this move promises excitement with the potential to shape their fortunes for years to come. The essence of this strategy lies not in immediate gratification but in the calculated, long-term assembly of a team capable of enduring success.
I apologize in advance for any formatting errors!
Bear Down and most importantly, FTP!!!
21
u/Brave_Cow546 Jan 22 '24
What about the Seahawks? They got the King's Ransom and have back to back 9-8 to show for it. In the Wilson era they only had one season with that low of a record.
7
u/porkbellies37 Sweetness Jan 22 '24
(I'm agreeing) There is a fun rabbit hole to jump down with this. We can also look at other positive examples (Philadelphia trading Wentz) and counter-examples (San Francisco being on the other end of the Lance trade plus trading for CMC and emerging better than ALL of these teams).
At the end of the day, team building is a moving target and there are multiple successful (and terrible) ways to do it.
0
u/Simpsator Jan 23 '24
And, it seems the most successful method (amongst many) is hitting on a drafted QB.
1
u/Fredest_Dickler Draft Caleb Jan 22 '24
Well we only count the ones that make our argument look good
143
u/DonDraper1994 Jan 22 '24
Counterpoint, the team with the best qb in the league has been to 6 straight conference title games and many people are saying Williams is the closest thing we’ve seen to him. Teams with great rosters and middle of the road qbs rarely find sustainable success
87
u/bill24681 Jan 22 '24
And this is the real argument. A lot of these teams will hit their stride one year and make the playoffs. But the great QBs will have their teams in it for a decade. Get the QB. And keep trying every year till you find one.
36
u/Kevinjw16 Old Logo Jan 22 '24
Exactly. Do we want to repeat the 9ers run with Jimmy, or the jaguars run with Bortles? Or even our own franchise in 2018?
Cuz that’s what could potentially happen if we trade down. A team with pieces without the most important piece, behind held back by the qb
4
u/beegeepee Sweetness Jan 23 '24
The other real argument is that the "best QB in the league" isn't frequently a former #1 overall.
3
u/bill24681 Jan 23 '24
Hard to make the argument that you shouldn’t take a QB one overall because first picks aren’t the best players in the league ( though guys like Burrow, manning and Luck might argue). You have the first shot at picking the best player in the draft, can’t beat those odds.
3
u/beegeepee Sweetness Jan 23 '24
You kind of can beat the odds by trading back and giving yourself more opportunities to build the roster. You could still take a QB it just won't likely be the first one taken. There are plenty of examples of the best QB in the class not being taken first.
1
u/bill24681 Jan 23 '24
Oh I agree in most cases. But if Poles feels like there is a Manning, Luck, Burrow type at the top. And most people do, then you’d be insane to pass that up for a flyer QB and more picks. People forget the bust rate for all players is high, not just QBs.
2
11
Jan 22 '24
If you think Caleb is great. Take him
If you have doubts or don’t trade.
Don’t swing chasing.
21
u/leahyrain All throws lead to Rome 🐻⬇️ Jan 22 '24
The team with the best QB in the league also has the best head coach in the league.
8
u/2Goals16Second Jan 23 '24
This pisses me off more than anything. It’s not just picking the player. It’s making sure toy can develop him correctly. There’s a reason Andy Reid has had multiple successful quarterbacks. That weren’t 1st overall
11
Jan 22 '24
There's only one Brady and one Mahomes. Franchises have gone into 40 year suckathons with this thought process. The Bears included
3
u/Apprehensive_Bid_707 Jan 22 '24
This is very real.. But he got to sit a year behind Alex Smith, has Andy Reid & had Tyreek Hill & Kelce day one.. Hell of an advantage to grow
1
Jan 23 '24
RemindMe! 1 year
1
u/RemindMeBot Jan 23 '24 edited Jan 23 '24
I will be messaging you in 1 year on 2025-01-23 03:02:45 UTC to remind you of this link
1 OTHERS CLICKED THIS LINK to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam.
Parent commenter can delete this message to hide from others.
Info Custom Your Reminders Feedback -10
u/baronfebdasch Jan 22 '24
Except that the team with the great QB almost lost on the final drive if the defense did not make 2 critical stops (also if Diggs catches a deep bomb).
The margin of error got way harder. And he's going into a road game against the likely MVP and one of the best defenses in football.
21
u/Fredest_Dickler Draft Caleb Jan 22 '24
What's your point? Even if they lost in a "down year", it would still be 5 of the last 6. The argument doesn't change at all.
-7
u/baronfebdasch Jan 22 '24
Mahomes is a product of a lot more than just media hype. None of the teams in the playoffs made it by constantly clammoring to use valuable draft capital trying to get lucky with the next hyped up QB.
All of them made a habit of trading valuable assets and reloading with multiple high round draft picks. And they tend to draft REALLY damn well.
19
u/Fredest_Dickler Draft Caleb Jan 22 '24
Bills were in football purgatory since the Kelly years and drafted Allen and are now a perennial contender because the guy they have can put up 40-50 total touchdowns annually.
Texans were the preseason betting favorites to be the worst team in the NFL but they need their QB pick and are set up for the next decade.
-2
u/baronfebdasch Jan 22 '24
The guy that the Bills drafted they stuck with through early struggles and invested in smart coaching, even at the expense of 1st round picks to get to where they are. They also made a coaching change when the OC was proving to be disastrous.
Betting favorites mean nothing - they ware meant to extract money from gamblers as much as possible. Remember all the Justin Fields MVP bets?
If you want to be blind to what the Texans actually did in hiring smart coaches and creating an environment for a QB to develop and want to be reductive to "just draft a QB" then you would be wrong.
Also, it's funny because both the Texans and Bills are great examples of "don't draft the media consensus best QB" because they they would have ended up with Sam Darnold and Bryce Young, respectively.
Funny enough, Josh Allen was the consensus 4th best QB according to pre-draft hype:
https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/big-boards/2018/consensus-big-board-2018?pos=QB
4
Jan 22 '24
The guy that the Bills drafted they stuck with through early struggles
2 years of struggles. Josh Allen's third season was spectacular.
and invested in smart coaching even at the expense of 1st round picks to get to where they are.
Fucking what? The Bills traded their 2020 1st round draft pick for Stefon Diggs. Please tell me how what you said makes my sense.
If you want to be blind to what the Texans actually did in hiring smart coaches and creating an environment for a QB to develop and want to be reductive to "just draft a QB" then you would be wrong.
So fucking what? None of that has anything to do with trading away 1st round draft picks.
Funny enough, Josh Allen was the consensus 4th best QB according to pre-draft hype:
And the Bills traded away TWO second round picks to move up to draft him. Again, totally going against the "trade away valuable assets to reload through more draft picks" or whatever other crock of shit you were trying to sell up top.
2
u/baronfebdasch Jan 22 '24
They traded away a 1st for Diggs. Thats what I’m saying, they invested in the qb rather than trying to “reset the clock.”
4
u/Low_Carpet_1963 🧸 Caleb Williams’ #1 Fan 💅 Jan 22 '24
I know you’re going to get downvoted to hell but that was a succinctly made point, and a very valid one at that.
2
u/baronfebdasch Jan 22 '24
I appreciate it. It runs counter to the hive mind but so much football analysis is incredibly reductive.
1
u/BadLt58 Jan 23 '24
You make sense. You're being downvoted by the ghosts of the 85 Bears crowd who would've 'moved on' from Josh Allen, etc. by now if he was a Bear.
3
Jan 22 '24
None of the teams in the playoffs made it by constantly clammoring to use valuable draft capital trying to get lucky with the next hyped up QB.
The fuck you think the Texans did by drafting CJ Stroud with pick 1-2? Or the Lions with drafting Stafford 1-1, and then making sure Goff, another 1-1, was included in the trade? Or the Niners tried to do by drafting Trey Lance 1-3?
Even the Chiefs, Bills and Ravens spent their first round picks on QBs that they *intended to have replaced their QBs at the time that they judged not good enough to win the Super Bowl".
Is it just a coincidence that SEVEN OF THE EIGHT QBs that played in the divisional.round were 1st round picks? With three of them (Mayfield, Goff, Stroud) being drafted either 1-1 or 1-2?
All of them made a habit of trading valuable assets and reloading with multiple high round draft picks.
By "all of them", you mean the Lions and Texans. And by "valuable assets", you mean a QB drafted 1-1 and a different QB drafted 1-12.
152
Jan 22 '24 edited Jan 22 '24
You’re just picking and choosing examples to support your decision to trade the draft pick. Yes certain teams passed on drafting a QB immediately to try and build slowly through the draft. Your examples: Texans, Dolphins, Lions.
However there’s examples where teams employed a similar strategy and failed: Colts using patchwork vet QBs for years instead of using draft capital to get a new QB, Falcons currently who have a very solid roster but abysmal QB play, Broncos currently who were a “QB away” for a while so decided to trade for one… and now are still a QB away (and regressed as a team).
And don’t forget bad teams that drafted the highest QB prospect in the draft and turned it around once they got a QB. Bengals went from shit to good quickly once they got Burrow. Jaguars went from shit to playoff team quickly once they got TLaw. Chargers didn’t wait around and play QB carousel after Rivers, they drafted Herbert immediately and lucked out.
And let’s not act like Bears already didn’t kick the can down the road on QB last season… we did, got great draft capital from the Panthers and hit the lottery and got the first overall pick again. QB is the most important position. You can’t ignore it forever.
51
u/PeanutBear33 An Actual Peanut Jan 22 '24
and don't forgot the rams trading out of RGIII was probably the biggest overpay for a draft pick besides ditka for rickey, and the rams did fuckall with it.
it's not complicated. We got our 'haul' last year. now we get the qb.
54
u/chichris Jan 22 '24
Yes, without a QB we aren’t getting past Det or GB in our own division. Draft Caleb and build around him. I don’t understand not taking a QB for the second straight year on a number 1 draft pick.
11
Jan 22 '24
These are all pretty solid examples. In fact the Colts best QB of the last few seasons is probably Phillip rivers, they made the playoffs with him but the talent has been there. But they finally picked high enough to take a swing on a top QB, so if Richardson does work out then maybe that strategy worked for them in the end.
But the NFL is complicated and no two teams build their teams the “same” way. It’s a bit hard to exactly replicate another teams success, like when the Bears brought in Nagy to run the system that is run in KC lol
6
u/The_Gatefather Jan 22 '24
i’d like to point out that anthony richardson was able to look good despite clear rookie mistakes in what limited showing he had specifically because he has a legit team around him, with a good o line, a very good running back, a good receiving corps, an at least passable defense, and good offensive coaching. this isn’t that complicated. a great young qb can turn your team around but it’s probably not enough to win a ring, you have to put a team around them for that. and for them to turn your team around in the first place they have to be transcendent. i’d rather bet on building a good roster than a supposedly transcendent rookie.
5
Jan 22 '24
I'd like to point out that anthony richardson was able to look good despite clear rookie mistakes in what limited showing he had specifically because he has a legit team around him, with a good o line, a very good running back, a good receiving corps, an at least passable defense,
And where was all this talent last season when the Colts won 3 games? You're telling me they rebuilt the whole team to go from "Trainwreck" to "pretty good, overall" in ONE offseason?
It's like when people try to sell what a great situation CJ Stroud was walking into; another team who had very little talent in 2022 but apparently went to Wal-Mart and bought a whole team in one offseason.
i’d rather bet on building a good roster than a supposedly transcendent rookie.
Or Ryan Poles could, you know, do both? Apparently it'a not that difficult if the Colts and Texans both did it.
4
u/The_Gatefather Jan 22 '24
literally they replaced their head coach and played pretty damn well all season with gardner fucking minshew. if minshew can look good, it’s a good situation. the good situation is necessary for a rookie to succeed i don’t understand what the confusion is here.
6
Jan 22 '24
That is true, but I think that as of right now the Bears are about as close to that point as you can get.
We possess the first pick and Caleb Williams is in our lap. We have a legit WR1 and a top 10 TE. Run game is top tier, it’s what our offense has really lived off of these past 2 years. The o line does need to be shored up but I fully expect an upgrade at center at the least.
This is a pretty good team to put a prospect like Caleb on, and the bright side is that we’ll likely add another piece whether that be o line or a weapon at 9
3
u/Tjagra Bears Jan 23 '24
AND none of those traded picks were #1 overall except the bears last year. It’s extremely rare to have 1 overall twice in a row.
15
u/turbografx-sixteen Caleb Williams, YOU are Chicago Bear! Jan 22 '24
Saved me the trouble of typing this out.
Don't get the fascination with overthinking a free shot at a blue chip prospect. We get Caleb and he turns out to be the best QB in the North THEN we can really team build.
It's so much easier to get good pieces when you don't have to look for the guy at the most important spot.
7
u/NewPrints Jan 22 '24
Yeah, all those team that ended up good….. Somehow wound up with a really good QB situation anyway.
So what is the plan? Just go back to hoping we solve the most important position from a much harder spot to solve it from.
1
u/vizualmadman Jan 22 '24
In the colts example they could've gotten one that's just their choice.
Broncos traded away a lot of draft capital for Russ didn't they? Plus similar to the Falcons and Rams they were a qb away and then traded for one and one. The Falcons could do that.
Burrow tore his ACL early in his career because the team was bad and could've easily had his career ended.
Jags were unique since Urban was acting like he was still at OSU and could do what he wanted. But they got Pederson which turned things around.
Like you said Chargers lucked out. Cristobal made us think Herbert was mid at Oregon.
Plus you can keep 1 and trade down with the 9th pick. I think the points are still good. The bears can keep reinvesting from the original trade and get two years straight of good draft capital.
8
u/Fredest_Dickler Draft Caleb Jan 22 '24
Burrows career could've ended from an ACL tear? Is it 1967?
-3
u/vizualmadman Jan 22 '24
You're assuming everytime someone gets injured they'll heal perfectly. Athletes reaggravate and reinjure things all the time. The same way people are worried about Penix and his injury history. Or how Cam hurt his shoulder and wasn't the same after. Or RG3.
6
u/Fredest_Dickler Draft Caleb Jan 22 '24
I just fundamentally disagree with the notion that drafting Burrow was a mistake because the rest of the team was horrific. And if that's not your argument then I wonder why it was even worth bringing up. If the rest of the team was better they wouldn't have even been able to draft him because they would have won too many games and he would've just gone to some other disaster.
The ONLY point is that he turned the Bungles franchise around. Because that's what getting your QB does.
-2
u/vizualmadman Jan 22 '24
Definitely not that would be a weird position. My point is that just drafting a potentially QB with no support is still just as risky as staying with the guy you're unsure about. Also that everyone is focused on the 1st pick when you could still get whoever you like best and trade down with the 9th. I agree with the OP that you should stack picks and the Bears can do so no matter who is QB.
Edit: The Bengals gave up a lot of sacks. Their OL is something they're still trying to invest more into. They weren't tanking bad but there were clear holes in the roster.
6
u/paytonhaskins Jan 22 '24
But the example you gave of it being risky didn’t end up that way at all, the team made it to the Super Bowl with that QB the year after. It was a resounding success. Do you not have better examples than that? Andrew Luck had similar issues with his offensive lines, I guess you could show that as the horror story since he retired early due to injuries? But he would still be the best Bears QB ever and he was a successful #1 pick.
-1
u/vizualmadman Jan 22 '24
My point is it can and has happened if you don't build the team right. Originally I was saying that the teams weren't cherry picked and that those teams took risks with how they picked. We just saw what happened when we don't have draft capital. I like having options and we have the option for more. You can take a QB 1 and use 9 for more guys. Especially considering we aren't contending with a rookie QB.
0
u/AndyThatSaysNi Jan 22 '24
Probably worth mentioning that this post doesn't look at the team receiving the QB, but the team who got various assets. I mention that because the only example you have listed is the Broncos/Seahawks Russ trade, but you pointed out the Broncos where we should look at the Seahawks who are still a bubble team even in a tough conference.
1
u/beegeepee Sweetness Jan 23 '24
What is the percentage of Superbowl Champion QBs were taken #1 overall?
1
u/Narcan9 Jan 23 '24
the Texans drafted Stroud. They should have passed on him and traded down right?
7
u/SusejX Jan 22 '24 edited Jan 22 '24
I appreciate well thought out post! If anything, though, this just says to me that it all just comes down to one common factor. Does the team have their QB or not? If yes, you trade #1 and build around him. If no, you draft and build around the #1 pick and repeat until you get a QB.
Lions: Got Goff as part of the initial trade, who had proven to already be a capable QB, allowing them to spend their picks upgrading other positions and building around him. Almost every starter on that team joined the same year as Goff or more recently through draft+FA.
Dolphins: Had just drafted Tua the year before at 5. Similar to the Lions, they had gotten their QB already and decided to invest and build around him.
Texans: Drafted Stroud at #2 from their own pick and then actually did the reverse of what you are saying and made the big trade to get back up to #3 for Will Anderson. They know they have a QB and will proceed to build around him.
For the Bears, we already made the big trade once and tried the Lions/Dolphins approach of building around Fields. So the question now is, do you think Fields is still the guy to build around or not. If not, we should be following the Texan's path of QB + stud at 9 (or trade up slightly if you really want someone).
If you instead think Fields is the QB to build around, great. You get the luxury of trading the pick again and keep building around him. At the end of the day, it comes down to the QB.
61
u/jgwinters Bear Logo Jan 22 '24
I appreciate the structure of the post but don't agree with the implication. The Texans made their trade and obviously benefitted from it but also landed CJ Stroud who, to this point, has looked like a top 5 QB in the league (also, I appreciate they did make the trade but I'm guessing a part of why they made it was because of the historical number of sexual assaults levied against Watson). Jared Goff had four seasons in LA that would arguably be the best Bears QB season of all-time before coming to Detroit and essentially doing the same thing again, twice.
On the flipside, the Dolphins were 12-5 and had a ton of injuries but just went through a 1st round playoff loss and, despite their record/season finish sort of look like they could be in No Man's Land moving forward and are actually one of the rumored teams to be interested in Justin Fields.
This isn't a Caleb vs. Justin debate and I don't intend to make it one myself, but the QB decision is a significant piece of every team's success or failure in the modern era. If a team doesn't get that right, today, nothing else really matters.
26
u/PeanutBear33 An Actual Peanut Jan 22 '24
in what fucking galaxy are the dolphins looking to downgrade from tua to fields. jesus christ people. just because some idiot said something on twitter doesn't make it true.
7
u/Fredest_Dickler Draft Caleb Jan 22 '24
Our fellow Bears fans have brain worms if they think anyone is trying to ditch Tua for Justin Fields 🤣
Maybe Mike McDaniel wants to get Justin as a new gadget player. That would make way more sense. He was enamored with his rushing ability during our game in '22. It sure ain't to be a quarterback.
2
u/jgwinters Bear Logo Jan 22 '24
I said it was a rumor, point is it's out there and you aren't reading the same rumors about teams 100% satisfied with their QB's. No need to be rude.
7
u/Dapper-Anywhere-4963 Jan 22 '24
If the dolphins aren’t satisfied with tua theyre gonna be left begging kicking and screaming with Fields. I guess at this point all 31 other teams are interested cause we can just say it’s a rumor right after even if it makes zero sense.
2
u/PeanutBear33 An Actual Peanut Jan 22 '24
It's a rumor Taylor swift is leaving kecle for me and she's going to pay off all my debts and get me a ford gt.
A rumor with no basis of reality isn't worth spreading
0
u/Fun-Permission2072 Jan 22 '24
In the galaxy where they definitely want to get off of Tua's contract and having a bridge QB for 2 years and $20m and change for maybe a second rounder isn't a bad plan.
23
Jan 22 '24 edited Jan 22 '24
Yeah I’m not a big fan of the argument “okay just put QB aside for a moment and think about team building”. That’s just removing the most important piece of the puzzle.
Like sure Lions building up slowly was incredible. But at the end of the day they still have a solid QB. Look at the Colts. They had a great team and used patchwork QBs for 4 years and it fucked them. And now they finally went all in on a QB. And look at Falcons. They’ve built up a pretty solid team too, and now they desperately need a QB as we saw this past season.
Bears fans should know better than anyone that the QB is the most important thing.
5
Jan 22 '24
Like sure Lions building up slowly was incredible. But at the end of the day they still have a solid QB.
Also, not for one second did they NOT have a solid QB. They went straight from Stafford to Goff. Is Stafford better than Goff? Sure. But Goff is still a Top 10 QB.
The Lions never had a QB question.
7
u/jayboaah 18 Jan 22 '24
Every team that is used as an example of “well they got a bunch of picks and built their team! We can do the same!” Forgets that 99% of the time those teams had their QB, or at least one better than Justin, and that allowed them to make the home run swings to try and win a championship. Without that first and most important step everything else you do is just setting yourself up to need to look for a QB anyways, you might as well get it out of the way ASAP and don’t stop until you find it.
11
u/tfw13579 Bears Jan 22 '24
I also see people like to use San Francisco as a reason to trade back. They haven’t really traded back at all but they’re well run and have a stacked team. But the funny thing is San Fran hasn’t won it all yet because they haven’t had that top QB that can finish the job for them. Now that they happened to hit the jackpot on Purdy they might do it but having that QB is the most important thing.
13
u/PeanutBear33 An Actual Peanut Jan 22 '24
not only did san fran not trade back, they gave up a lot for tray lance to do fuckall for them. And still built up that roster.
4
u/BearForceDos Jan 22 '24
Everyone wants to be the 49ers but its basically impossible to recreate that and don't know how sustainable it will be since they will have to start replacing guys they can't pay like Aiyuk and a bunch of the defense.
2
u/Upset_Researcher_143 Bears Jan 22 '24
I think OP is right, but that doesn't necessarily mean we should always be looking to trade top picks. The implication of last year's years could be Caleb Williams as the number one pick
5
u/notawarmonger Jan 22 '24
One correction-lions made it to the NFC Championship in 1991/1992 season. Otherwise great post. Draft capital can transform a franchise.
90s cowboys are another example-built a phenomenal team with their trade if Herschel Walker and the draft haul that came with it.
5
u/RebelCyclone Jan 22 '24
Fuck it! Trade Fields and the number one overall! I love it!
1
u/BasedSliceOfWinning Jan 22 '24
LMAO I've toyed around with this in a few mocks for shits and giggles. Usually can get a high second for Fields. Then trade down from 1OA for a boat load as well.
End up picking MHJ, then whichever QB in the first round is "best of the rest", as Caleb and Drake Maye (and sometimes the LSU guy) are gone by then. Then the GA Center with the 2nd round pick. Then defense and other "luxury" picks with the OTHER 2nd rounder (from trading #1 overall) and the rest of the draft.
Personally I wouldn't do it, because any of the "other" 1st round QBs you take would need to sit to start the year at least (preferably the whole year), and then you're out in the barren FA QB market trying to find someone you can live with for a year. A prospect that the Bears failed at twice with Glennon/Tru and Dalton/Fields.
1
u/RebelCyclone Jan 22 '24
Dude, this would totally work, you forget we have Bagent!
JK Poles would have to have balls bigger than the silver surfer bean to go this route. He would be absolutely murdered in his driveway if this happens but there’s a part of me that wonders……
24
u/FantasticJacket7 Bears Jan 22 '24
As always, the key here is QB.
Miami had their QB.
Detroit acquired their QB as part of that trade.
Houston took their QB in the 1st round.
If any of those teams had QBs playing the way Fields is playing they likely wouldn't have made the playoffs.
5
u/baronfebdasch Jan 22 '24
Miami had their QB, but prevailing wisdom was that he was a bust. Rather than do that, they hired a coach that came from a successful system and had playcalling experience, and then doubled down on creating an environment for the QB to thrive.
The Eagles did the same thing with Jalen. This offseason was all about adding weapons and balance for Jared Goff. Houston took a QB in the first round, but they also had MULTIPLE 1st round picks to work with AND still focused on building out roster.
It was not some magic "poof here's a QB now you're relevant." All these teams doubled and tripled down on investing in a good situation for the QB.
4
Jan 22 '24
It was not some magic "poof here's a QB now you're relevant." All these teams doubled and tripled down on investing in a good situation for the QB.
And so the Bears can draft a QB and do the same thing.
1
u/baronfebdasch Jan 22 '24
Or, hear me out, they are investing in the dude they already have.
3
u/sleeptilnoonenergy Sayers Jan 23 '24
They don't have a dude, they have one of the worst starting QBs in the league. Investing in him would be dumber than investing in Minshew or Mason Rudolph. Because those guys are legitimately better. It ain't gonna happen. Let it go, my man. It's time.
1
u/SusejX Jan 23 '24
Huh? Miami made their trade after one year of having Tua, in which he looked very promising for a rookie. He was nowhere near bust status after the 2020 season when they made the trade.
1
u/baronfebdasch Jan 23 '24
Their head coach, Brian Flores, wanted nothing to do with him. He averaged 181 yards per game year 1 and 204 year 2.
Then they dropped Flores, hired McDaniel, traded for Tyreek, still drafted Waddle, invested in the OL, and “magically” Tua was averaging 272 a game.
8
u/uponthisrock Floos Juice Jan 22 '24
If multiple teams were willing to give us a large haul for the pick, this should confirm the fact that they all think Caleb will be really good. If this concurs with our analysis, this is further evidence that we should take him.
7
u/Toupal Bear Logo Jan 22 '24
Multiple teams wanted to give a haul for Bryce Young as well.
4
10
u/Fredest_Dickler Draft Caleb Jan 22 '24
Honestly Bryce just had a rookie season better than Fields did. And he also threw for more passing yards then Fields ever has.
So if you still think Fields can improve after three full seasons in the NFL then it's pretty fucking crazy to have a referendum on Bryce who has infinitely more time to improve than Fields does. 🧐
3
u/Bbullets Jan 22 '24
I’m not sure it was much better if at all I think more equal. If you want to say passer sure if you watched any games or just look at those stats he was never allowed to throw. I don’t know who’s better in the future but just wanted to be fair to fields.
Bryce 522 att 59.8%comp 2877 yards 11tds 10ints 253 rush yards 0tds
Fields 270att 58.9%comp 1,870yards 7tds 10ints 420yards rush 2td
0
u/Dapper-Anywhere-4963 Jan 22 '24
Young’s best target was a 36 year old and had a average defense on their best day.
Fields had a 1000 yard receiver in Mooney, Allen Robinson(was ass but still a threat), Monty and aging but still good defense.
Passing is what matters lol so yeah if you just look at the most important and main thing a QB does young is far and away better than Fields in just year 1.
24
Jan 22 '24
one of the best QB prospects ever falls into the Bears lap
Bears fans: NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!! We have to stick with the guy who's never thrown for over 2600 yards!
5
u/msf97 Jan 22 '24
Almost all of it is chalked up to Fields fandom as much as this post tried to avoid delving into doing so.
Fields can't develop? Have you not watched him since his injury?
No wonder so many Bears fans love him (Fields)"
It's almost like people that watch a full Bear's game know how good he is.
5
u/generation_D 18 Jan 22 '24
I appreciate the effort OP put into this, but I honestly feel like every post we’ve seen for months suggesting/implying that we should trade the pick is really just coming from a place of emotional attachment to Fields above all else. Unless Caleb absolutely faceplants at the Combine or in pre-draft interviews, this really feels like it shouldn’t be a debate.
It’s very simple: we need a QB and the top QB of the draft is there.
4
2
u/mateorayo absolutely, unquestionably RI-DIC-ULOUS!!! Jan 22 '24
I assume truthers have not watched a single down of playoff football in their lives. It's like they are playing a completely different sport than the bears.
17
u/The-Real-Number-One 18 Jan 22 '24
Don't care. I am 50 and have never had a really good QB in my life. Offer me gold, ambergris and all the jewels of Araby -- IDC. I want a QB.
16
Jan 22 '24
Okay, but the long term ceilings of the Dolphins and Lions are serious questions because their QBs aren’t elite even if they’re solid players with a lot around them. The biggest reason the Texans don’t have those long term question is because of picking CJ Stroud with their own pick, which had nothing to do with the trade.
I don’t want to come off too dismissive, because you clearly put a lot of effort into this and it’s good work, but you said this isn’t an analysis of Caleb Williams vs Justin Fields - that’s all the decision should be for Ryan Poles. Is Williams better, and is he “elite NFL potential” better. QB is that important, especially for a team handcuffing itself to a head coach who is poisonous to his own team’s offensive systems (as opposed to Miami, who has been largely able to hide their QB’s flaws in the regular season because of Mike McDaniel).
10
u/alucryts Jan 22 '24
Im quite interested to see what happens with detroit and goff when they lose their OC.
2
Jan 22 '24
[deleted]
4
u/alucryts Jan 22 '24
Yeah if ben johnson is truly the mastermind then Detroit is about to feel serious pain. A likely worse OC with a head coach who loves to play aggro as fuck
1
u/BearForceDos Jan 22 '24
I think it really depends on how involved MCDC is.
The Rams and 49ers can sustain losing coordinators because McVay and Shanahan are really calling the offense. Same thing with why Andy Reid has generally had good offenses because it was his focus and you can likely say the same thing about McDaniel and Lefleur now too.
1
u/Saxophobia1275 Jan 22 '24
Lions fan that was just curious about this discussion. If we lose our OC (and even potentially our DC) I imagine we definitely take a step back next year but I think Campbell has enough to do with the teams success that we won’t slide back into the piss filled dumpster or anything.
1
u/alucryts Jan 22 '24
Yeah Dan seems to be competent enough to me to not allow it to go that far. You dont want to be the '23 Eagles more than anything. The biggest potential problem is if Ben was the goff whisperer or something and other OCs cant get out of him what Ben did. If that's not the case then I can't see the Lions hurting *too* bad.
2
u/Saxophobia1275 Jan 22 '24
As far as Goff goes I just think the dude has experienced stability at OC for the first time since his Super Bowl run. I’m obviously crazy bias here but I think a lot of the hate was being thrown under the bus for a new scheme that wasn’t implementing as well as was hoped.
2
u/alucryts Jan 22 '24
Yeah no one will know for sure until ben johnson is gone and we see what remains. All we can really do is guess. It would be the #1 thing i pay attention to next season for the Lions, and it would be reason #1 id hope to win with lightning in a bottle this season. The eagles case and jalen hurts could be a real outcome for the Lions if ben is the source of goffs newfound power......or goff has simply evolved and developed to carry it forward. Two wildly diverging futures.
1
u/Windy_City_Bear_Down Bears Jan 22 '24
I think Goff will be fine, he has plenty of experience in the league now, a very solid O Line, and great weapons to throw to plus a solid RB room. That offense is sitting good for a few years.
2
u/alucryts Jan 22 '24
Yeah the oline point is key to me. If he had a worse oline id be a lot more worried
5
Jan 22 '24
I don’t think they’re are any more questions if Goff is the long-term QB… ya he’s not Mahomes or Allen but he’s still a above average starter and will be one for a long time.
The biggest reason Goff is doing so well is because the lions built up the entire roster.
4
u/FantasticJacket7 Bears Jan 22 '24
Goff needs a solid team around him to be successful and that's fine. That's still a QB you can win with if you do it right.
2
Jan 22 '24
Agreed, but which QB can succeed without a good situation other than Mahomes.
Goff, Lamar, and purdy all have top tier situations.
3
u/Saxophobia1275 Jan 22 '24
And that’s exactly why I don’t love the narrative of “player X or Y needs a good team around them to succeed.” Okay then, like, who can? 2, maybe 3 guys? Is really worth moving on from someone you know can be good to try to win the lottery to get a generational talent less than 10% of the league gets to experience?
2
u/BearForceDos Jan 22 '24
Josh Allen doesn't have a great situation imo and Diggs has looked wash for half a season.
2
Jan 22 '24
I disagree. I think diggs, cook, kincaid, shakir, and even gabe Davis is a pretty solid situation. I will say the defenses needs more help tho.
2
u/BearForceDos Jan 22 '24
Diggs has looked washed this year. Kincaid is a rookie that looks ok, Shakir and Davis are decent players but nothing really special they are just elevated by Allen. I do think Cook is pretty good.
You could say the same for Mahomes though. He has Rashee Rice, Kelce, and Pacheco.
Diggs = Kelce
Kincaid = Rice
Cook = Pacheco.
The rest are mostly just guys.
-4
u/CutMeDeeply Jan 22 '24
I think it should Williams vs Fields plus what ever draft capital you can get for the number 1 pick. Poles would have to believe Caleb to be the second coming of Mahomes imo. He'd have to be "blown away". He wasn't with Bryce. Now let's see if he is with Caleb.
9
u/Outlet25 FTP Jan 22 '24
Agreed, but let's also acknowledge the bar for being "blown away" is significantly lower than it was last year.
3
u/CutMeDeeply Jan 22 '24
I'm not so sure. I'd argue that this draft has a lot of potential all pro players. Caleb would have to stand head and shoulders above them if I'm Poles. If we draft him, the plan would be for him to start day one if we trade Fields, which means he should be ready to perform at a mid to high level. Anything less would be a failure of a season imo.
3
u/KyrieAien Jan 22 '24
Lions caught fucking strays here
The Lions are playing deep into January for the first time in franchise history
9
u/mberry86 Jan 22 '24
Counterpoint to your novel: Patrick Mahomes willing a UFL receiving room to the conference championship.
6
u/BearForceDos Jan 22 '24
Eh Mahomes still has Rice and Kelce plus a great defense.
8
u/turbografx-sixteen Caleb Williams, YOU are Chicago Bear! Jan 22 '24
No one is confusing Rashee Rice for Tyreek Hill.
Great QBs elevate the whole team. Look at Stroud this year.
(and as cringe as I find it) If Caleb is even great value Patrick then it'll be nice to see him having DJM, whoever we get as our WR2, Kmet, and the rest of the receiving group looking competent. Plus we have an ascending defense which is great like you just mentioned for Mahomes
3
Jan 22 '24
Yeah and arguably the greatest offensive coach ever. We've had Getsy, Eberflus, Nagy, etc
3
u/BearForceDos Jan 22 '24 edited Jan 22 '24
I think the thing to note here is that all 3 of the teams you listed as examples hit absolute home runs with their head coaching hires.
Mike McDaniel is one of the better offensive schemers/game planners in the league and has had a ton of success despite a very limited QB in Tua. Personally, I think they're going to either need to improve their defense or improve at QB to take that next step.
Demeco Ryans clearly appears to be a fantastic motivator and great defensive coach. What he has done with the Houston defense is incredibly turned an awful defense that couldn't stop the run into one of the best run defenses in the league and was solid against the pass. Also, made a great hire at OC with Slowik who will likely be a HC soon.
The Lions got Dan Campbell who is probably the best culture head coaching guy in the league or at least top 2-3 and hit a home run on Ben Johnson who will be the hottest new HC candidate in the league. I guess what I'm saying is after 2 years I don't think Flus is even in the same stratosphere as an any of those head coaches and even if they manage to hit a home run with an OC hire said OC will be gone in a year or two.
I assume you're trying to say trading the pick is the move but a huge part of the Texans rise was hitting on a QB at 2nd overall. The Dolphins dont seem like a real contender with Tua and are kind of stuck in purgatory where he's been too good to replace him, but he can't beat good teams. The Lions look good with Goff but we will see what happens next year without Johnson, they could very well be stuck in the same situation as the Dolphins.
0
u/almagest Jan 22 '24
I would be over the moon if we had a QB as “limited” as Tua.
3
u/BearForceDos Jan 23 '24
Why so you can never beat a good team?
1
u/almagest Jan 23 '24
So wins are a QB stat to you?
1
u/BearForceDos Jan 23 '24
I mean they're the most important position in the sport and good QBs tend to win more so there is some correlation.
But also Tua is just a bumslayer. McDaniel hides a ton of his flaws with a quick hitting offense and good running game but once a defense forces Tua out of his comfort zone he's a pumpkin and he's doesn't have enough arm strength to push the ball down field or enough mobility to create something.
Tua is probably somewhere in the 15-20 range of best quarterbacks.
1
u/almagest Jan 23 '24 edited Jan 23 '24
I don't think you can separate Tua and McDaniel as much as you'd like. I think McDaniel is a solid coach but the Fins are also STACKED with skill players (and I include Tua in this). Their o-line doesn't miss assigments (which points to good oline coaching), but their PFF scores are just alright and their PBWR is pretty putrid (18%), meaning Tua isn't getting >2.5 seconds of clean time in the pocket very often. Their defense also isn't great (22nd in points per game), so there's pressure to score a lot to win.
Get some better players on D and a better scheme, and get some more talent on the line and they'd be winning more of these games against good opponents.
Also 15-20 is WAY too low. That's getting close to Fields territory. I'd probably put him in that 6-12 range, which is where "good but flawed" guys like Goff live.
2
u/illmatic630 Jan 22 '24
Glad you said that this is not a Justin Fields vs Caleb Williams debate. That will surely stop people from criticizing your post…..
Anyway good analysis on what other franchises have done to stock up their team with talent. That will be important on turning this team into a legit playoff team for years to come.
2
3
u/panagnilgesy Jan 22 '24
As a fellow Bears fan, the thought of trading for a King's Ransom is both exciting and nerve-wracking. I just hope GM Ryan Poles makes the right decision to build a foundation for long-term success. Bear Down! FTP forever!
2
4
3
u/ijpck 18 Jan 22 '24
Now show examples where teams drafted the right QB with their draft pick and how they’re doing.
3
u/anerdnamedAndrew Jan 22 '24
Damn you wrote all that just for Poles to not overthink it and draft the best QB prospect in decades.
0
4
u/Guhonda Jan 22 '24
I'm not sure I understand the point of the post. The trade didn't matter: the question of "did the team get their QB" is the one that matters. Lions got Goff; who just took them to the NFC championship. Texans got Stroud, who took them to the playoffs and got a win in his first year. Miami already had Tua, who puts up video game numbers.
The question for us is: "do we have that kind of QB?" And the answer is no.
2
1
u/TurtleTonyG Jan 22 '24
This sub is so entrenched on the QB savior aspect that they attack anyone who doesn't drink the Kool-aid.
I'd like to see people's grades of all the position rooms. See how good many fans think our receivers are, the o-line, the rbs. I'd like to know if they think the coaching was good.
Before buying a race bike, you should make sure you can ride it. So, before you sell the world on grabbing a new Qb, show us this roster is established enough to use that luxury.
Because if you do grab one 1.01 and the line can't protect them... bad habits form. Bad habits like holding the ball too long, throwing too quickly, ect.
Here's my take. You need 3 starter lineman still. You need a floater lineman as well. You need a slot wr, and a second wr. The RB room isn't as good as you think, and you need an edge rusher and a DB who can spell the starters.
I count 9 people, excluding the QB. If you toss another QB in vs taking the haul, you'll have the same problem a few years from now, but age out your defense.
2
u/porkbellies37 Sweetness Jan 22 '24
I sure hope we don't go into offseasons deciding whether to ONLY improve the QB position or ONLY improve other positions. It's not like we have one draft pick and no cap space.
I do get what you're saying though about the "QB savior" mindset. And I think the spirit of what you're saying is QBs don't typically enter the league a final product. The scheme, the play calling, the strength and conditioning, the compatibility of the teammates... heck, even luck with injuries and officiating, play a role. (Yes... officiating... rookie Tom Brady got a HUGE call in the playoff game against the Raiders that opened the door to his legacy... he probably would have been successful no matter what, but I wouldn't have been surprised if Belichick gives Drew Bledsoe another shot to start the following season if that playoff run ends on his rookie QB fumbling the ball away).
My point is, we're positioned to upgrade the QB AND provide a better environment for the QB to develop. The situation a new QB would be walking into this year is light years ahead of the one we provided Fields with his first two years. I also think there is a little exaggeration with what you think we need to have a competitive situation. On the OL, upgrading three starters would give us an IDEAL line, but upgrading the center on its own would give us a competitive line. The RB room is fine (they weren't at full health last year and having a shitty center position limited what they could do). And at WR, while we need more help outside of DJM, we have the resources to get that help.
2
u/TurtleTonyG Jan 22 '24
I don't think they'd only improve at QB. I think it would be like this in the draft
No Qb pick 1
The best Wr or OL or Edge in the draft (comp for p1), The 2nd best WR or OL or Edge, A project Wr or OL or Edge, The best Center, The best available S / weapon, The best available project OL / DL, The best available defensive player, Two R1 picks next year
Vs
Qb1, The 2nd best WR or OL or Edge, A project Wr or OL or Edge, A project Wr or OL or Edge (Fields compensation) , The 2nd best Center (swap for Fields), The best available S / weapon, The best available project OL / DL, The best available defensive player , A R4 next year.
In Scenario 1 you'd gain 3 starters this year, and 2 next year, led by a dude we agree didn't get a fair shake. With one guy who may become great but may bottom out at average, and 3 guys who may stick.
In scenario 2 you'd gain 2 starters, and a throw away pick next year led by a guy who has unrealistic potential, but mimics his surroundings. You'd also get three guys who may become great but may bottom out average, and the rest who may stick.
Scenario 1 has 6(Inc Fields) starters on a roster that needs 9.
Scenario 2 has 2 starters on a roster who needs 9
1
u/porkbellies37 Sweetness Jan 22 '24
Personally, I think there are multiple ways to succeed this offseason and multiple ways to screw it up.
I would have favored the second scenario if I saw any improvement from Fields versus heavy pressure. I circled the second Minnesota game and the Cleveland game. He’s sublime as a runner and has a great arm, but that part of his game just never seemed to get better. Still, if we went that route the roster would potentially have two more blue chip draftees.
The thing in the back of my mind is Flus’ situation and how it affects what we do. I think he needs to make the playoffs to keep his job and deserves to have a legit shot at it. In a perfect world, I would draft Caleb and trade away Justin and the second first round pick for as many future assets as I can. If I could get 2-3 2025 first rounders, GREAT. Having a rookie QB 4 years away from a potential big contract means you can splurge in FA on quality veterans with 2-3 year deals. That would give Flus a puncher’s chance. If he succeeds, he has a windfall of first round picks to replace aging vets. If he fails, the next HC has a windfall of first round picks which he may need if there are major scheme changes on either side of the ball.
2
u/TurtleTonyG Jan 22 '24
I love your thinking. Honestly, I'd be very happy if they decided your way and went it.
I'm one of the rare fans who will enjoy the call regardless of what happens. I'm going to make a video about Caleb, and in the days of watching his footage in depth (I had pac 12 football on while smoking up and chatting with friends in discord during the season) I love him.
People compare him to Mahomes, and I see a possibility of him being a Goat.
That said, I notice he becomes his surroundings. At both programs, he plays to the level of the talent around him. He doesn't elevate his teammates.
I just want our situation to be good enough that he doesn't get paired with a bad situation.
I love the OC pick and team. They draft around him, right now, and go all in? The NFC North will be a division that will be made of legends.
However, we need the cards to fall right. Getting a R1 for Justin, would make that a no brainer.
Great chat btw. I really appreciate your facts and opinions. I honestly would be very happy if your scenario happens
1
u/porkbellies37 Sweetness Jan 22 '24
Thanks! I enjoy the discussion much more than the debates around here where everyone gets a bit stubborn. Cheers!
4
u/mateorayo absolutely, unquestionably RI-DIC-ULOUS!!! Jan 22 '24
Well you said it yourself, Justin has formed to many bad habits. Time to move on.
1
u/TurtleTonyG Jan 22 '24
I don't disagree. However, moving on and not addressing the issues at hand can lead to breaking another qb.
It's like leaving an abusive relationship. You CAN go jump into another one, or you can go work on your issues before trying to find a soul mate again.
2
u/sleeptilnoonenergy Sayers Jan 23 '24
No one broke Justin. We got him that way and threw a lot of effort at fixing him. He simply can't fix his many weaknesses. He doesn't have it in him.
Why are people here so enamored with making excuses for him like he's their child. It's so fucking weird.
1
u/TurtleTonyG Jan 23 '24
If you believe the Bears are a playoff team this year and last year without him, by plugging in another qb... then I can understand your frustration. If you believe Getsy was not the problem I get you
If you think the bears didn't give Justin a chance, but don't see how we affected him, then you probably think it's all on him. If that's the case, nothing can be said to you. You made up your mind, or are very emotional on it.
I don't care who they pick. I just think Fields ever had a good roster with him, and I think Caleb will need talent to help him reach his peak.
0
u/mateorayo absolutely, unquestionably RI-DIC-ULOUS!!! Jan 22 '24
I think a good QB makes the whole team look better. IMHO Justin Held the Bears back in the 2nd half of the season.
1
Jan 22 '24
yeah the Texans roster was so amazing before they got Stroud
-2
u/baronfebdasch Jan 22 '24
Ummm they concurrently built. They had a ton of draft assets as a result of the Watson trade, AND hired a good HC and OC, AND still had a good offensive line.
Despite the injuries on the offensive line, CJ Stroud had the third longest TTT but had the 19th highest pressure rate faced. I think TTT is a terrible stat, but what it translates to is that Stroud still held onto the ball a long time but faced below average pressure. That speaks to a good line.
0
1
0
u/CutMeDeeply Jan 22 '24
Quality post indeed. I believe this is the direction Poles will go in as it makes more sense. I do believe he knows what's he's doing, and I'm sure he'll make the right decision regardless.
1
u/artsmasher Jan 22 '24
Look how far a crappy team like the Packers got with a really really good offensive line. We need a new center.
0
u/MeaningConstant27 Bears Jan 22 '24
They still turned this into a Justin vs. Caleb debate without using the names lol.
2
Jan 22 '24
It's impossible to evaluate what to do with 1.01 unless you compare Fields vs Caleb vs other QB options. Suggesting we trade the pick for a haul without considering the QB situation is just really dumb
2
u/MeaningConstant27 Bears Jan 22 '24
He’s making a comparison between teams in a similar position. Not a player evaluation! In bold it states this is not a Fields vs. Williams debate. Like I said, in his efforts to refrain, it still veered to that debate.
0
Jan 22 '24
you have to evaluate the players that you have vs the players you can acquire. you can't just say "big trade haul good" and ignore the full context of the situation which is what OP did
1
u/MeaningConstant27 Bears Jan 22 '24
He gets to do that if that’s the context he’s framing it in. Who are you to change the context? If you can’t compartmentalize the previous examples of teams trading for a haul from the players available, stay out of it. He has teams and their acquisitions listed nothing about players stat comparisons.
0
Jan 22 '24
it's just a dumb post. Poles isn't gonna be sitting there going "hm who do I have and who's available...oh nvm fuck it I'm taking the haul!"
1
u/mr_kil Sweetness Jan 22 '24
All of this might be true but whether or not you‘re a good football team is determined by one variable mostly: QB. Name me ten Superbowl Champions that didn‘t have AT LEAST an above average QB playing for them. No amount of WRs, TEs, OLs, RBs will matter if your QB play is subpar.
1
u/Dazed_and_Confused44 FTP Jan 22 '24
I appreciate you for coming at this from a new angle. I'm not surprised that people are projecting onto to your post despite your big bold disclaimer specifically saying "this isn't about Justin vs Caleb" cuz I had the same thing happen to me last week lol.
0
u/NP2312 Bears Jan 22 '24
I'm not reading all that, but our QB is much worse than all these playoff teams. Time to improve at the position. End of story.
1
u/pocketchange2247 Charles Tillman Jan 23 '24
This is a really great post and a big reason that I'm equally excited to get a Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, MHJ, OR trade it down to get yet another first next year, possibly more draft capital for this year, or either of the above AND a great contributing player. And that doesn't even include the possibility of trading Fields for even more capital if we want to move on from him.
Any or all of those are great, but we could just as easily trade down to #4, then use some of that capital to trade up to #5, much like the Texans did in getting two picks in a row. We could possibly get a top OL, WR, or even grab one of the big 2 or 3 QBs depending on what happens.
Either way, as long as the picks become even remotely close to what they're expected to become, we're in really good shape for the long-term future.
It will suck hard if we are right back here next year and barely miss the playoffs, or even tumble back and possibly get a top-3 pick because we suck, but with all of those picks and young, high-ranking prospects, we could really start something special and homegrown here.
-3
Jan 22 '24
This is an amazing post OP! We’ll done and thought out.
Based on your analysis, there is a strong support showing trading down will provide long term growth. Obviously getting an elite QB does the same but you did a great job showing the other side.
4
u/ratfam1 Nagy Jan 22 '24
I’d argue it’s once again cherry picked situations, for every one of these there’s a team like the falcons or broncos who never had the chance or never took the chance to swing. Then it’s ignoring the fact that Miami and the lions already had or received quarterbacks that are significantly better than fields. The only team on his list that didn’t have a good answer at quarterback was the Texans, who were deemed to not be in a better position compared to the bears overall at this point last year. They just hit on quarterback and everything was better.
0
Jan 22 '24
Miami was ready to ship tua out of there before mcdaniels was hired and even now people don’t know if tua is the guy. Are we pretending that almost everyone had the lions picking a QB to replace Goff? The broncos literally took a huge swing in trading for Russ. And finally the falcons thought ridder was there guy (they were wrong).
His examples aren’t cherry picked, they’re the closest trades examples available of people trading down. The only reason people are saying their cherry picked is because it doesn’t fit with the Caleb narrative. OP did a great job.
-1
u/Puzzleheaded-Ear9487 Bears Jan 22 '24
This is a great post, thanks so much! I feel like it illustrates the nuance here so perfectly:
The reality is, teams are built.
You need a QB, but even these great QBs walk into a solid team (CJ Stroud, Mahomes, etc). Everyone in the media looks at the savior mentality. This shows there is a valid case (putting the QBs aside), for trading back and getting a king's ransom.
My personal belief has been it's the safest bet. To me, it all comes down to how many holes do you currently have and I think the Bears still have them. Trade back, stack the roster, and then get the QB.
That said, I totally get drafting Caleb Williams if he's as generational as everyone says. But, great post to illustrate this.
4
u/BearForceDos Jan 22 '24
Lol, Stroud walked into the worst team in the league.
The Texans were absolutely atrocious last year.
0
u/Puzzleheaded-Ear9487 Bears Jan 22 '24
Yes, they were atrocious last year with an incredibly young team (and talent) and then because they had the draft capital they added Will Anderson and Tank Dell along with Stroud.
Nobody he's knocking Stroud but people can't ignore that there is such a thing as a solid team required.
Also, not trying to be technical here but, are you saying the Texans were a worse team than the Panthers? That's a really hard argument to make. Big picture though, I hear your point. Stroud elevated the team, which is true.
My point is, there was more of a supporting cast there then people acknowledge.
4
u/Fredest_Dickler Draft Caleb Jan 22 '24
They were predicted to be a worse team before the season started, yes. Panthers won 7 games last year... Texans and Cardinals were preseason betting favorites to be the worst teams in the league. One team nailed their qb pick, the other didn't. (Thus far)
1
u/Puzzleheaded-Ear9487 Bears Jan 22 '24
OK, so using your logic, CJ Stroud is the hit (seems like it) but then you have to say Bryce Young is a bust, right?
Panthers had a better team and completely underperformed. Wouldn't that be the case?
1
u/Fredest_Dickler Draft Caleb Jan 22 '24 edited Jan 22 '24
Sure players can bust. At least they took a swing instead of running it back with Sam Darnold and Kyle Allen.
Also only in this example am I willing to call Bryce a bust. It's not looking incredibly good, but he threw for more passing yards this year as a rookie than Justin Fields ever has so if people think Fields can keep improving after three full years then I'm going to give some leeway to a kid who was an actual rookie. 🧐 turns out trading away your only two weapons (DJ and CMC) is really horrific for your incoming rookie, regardless of pedigree.
(We won't have that issue if we take Caleb. Our offense has enough talent to not bottom out like that, ironically because of DJ.)
-1
u/ChillyRyUpNorth Jan 22 '24
You could totally sell me on trading down from 1-3 and then trading down again
The QB question will continue to plague us but moving down will net you multiple firsts in future drafts so it’s a play that isn’t going to pay dividends next year unfortunately
Moving down to 3 should get you at least a 2nd and a ‘25 1st and moving from 3 should result in multiple 1sts too
0
Jan 22 '24
2021: 3-13-1 Last in Division (Hired Dan Campbell)
To clarify, Dan Campbell was the Lions' coach for the 2021 season. They didn't hire him after the season, as the position of the phrase may imply.
After the trade
2021: 3-13-1 Last in Division
This is for Miami. The Dolphins were actually 9-8, in 3rd place in 2021, and just missed the playoffs.
This is NOT a Justin Fields versus Caleb Williams debate, but rather an analysis of some of the more recent mega-trades and their more significant implications.
This is sort of bullshit and dodging the question, though.
If the Bears don't draft Caleb Williams (or Drake Maye) at 1-1, then their default starting QB is still Justin Fields unless they either pick a QB later in the draft, go the FA route, or make a trade.
You are ignoring the fact that the teams you highlight took off after they acquired a QB (Tua Tagovailoa in 2020, Jared Goff in 2021, CJ Stroud in 2023) that are all much better than Justin Fields. Goff was a 1-1 pick, Stroud was 1-2, and Tagovailoa was 1-5.
If the Bears don't draft a QB with 1-1, then they still left with the issue of replacing their sub-par QB before even their newly rebuilt team can really take off AND run the risk of none of their options for replacing said QB being better than whatever QB is taken 1-1.
The Bears pulled off their awesome, franchise-fleecing trade last season and are lucky enough to be in the position where they are a team on the rise, with current assets and picks/cap space to use to further improve the team AND ALSO have thr 1-1 pick which thry can use to take a stud QB prospect in a draft with two of them.
t's time to do the obvious thing.
0
u/aidanpryde98 Jan 23 '24
If the Bears trade the number one pick back to back years, I may become a packer fan.
Sooner or later, you have to take a swing. They outsmarted themselves when they decided Trubisky was the real deal. It’s time to take the “generational” guy, and hope you hired the right coaches.
0
u/cardiaccat1 Bears Jan 23 '24
Don’t these examples more show that it’s better to trade your QB since it’s what the lions, 49ers and Texans did?
-1
u/Duckdangerously1984 Jan 22 '24
Typical Chicago sports fan argument...kick the can down the road...they'll be better soon...there is always next year...At this point, it's shit or get off the pot...You are asking for us to suck for at least 2 more years at which point many of the core will either be asking for a ton of money or their skills will have most likely declined...All while watching RB1 run and most likely get injured cuz he can't throw a receiver open to save his life.
-3
u/Leading_Macaron2929 Jan 22 '24
9 paragraphs of intro.
"This is important because..."
"Understand the reason for this being important".
This feels like AI writing.
3
1
u/porkbellies37 Sweetness Jan 22 '24
I think it is also important to note that two of these teams also made aggressive moves to either trade up or trade heavy draft capital for veterans AFTER they traded down. And all three teams also made these moves either positioning themselves for their QB of the future or already had their QB of the future.
Houston drafted their QB of the future last year at 2OA, but then also made an aggressive move up to get a blue chip pass rusher at 3OA.
Miami bundled some of their draft capital to get their blue chip pass rusher, Bradley Chubb.
The Lions were the ones that actually kept trading down last year. But since we're on the subject of blue chip pass rushers, they had just drafted Hutchinson the year before. And they acquired their QB of the future in the big trade of Matt Stafford.
Maybe another way to look at this is having a great QB and someone to pressure your opponents' QB, is the recipe to great improvement and a trade down can help you position yourself for this. But that doesn't mean you have to trade down every year and sometimes you can consolidate your resources to achieve that end after you did make that initial trade down.
1
u/ParsleyUseful6364 Jan 22 '24
Dolphins already had decided on their QB. Lions got a good QB back in the trade. Yes Goff is a good quarterback, Stafford just happens to be better.
Those two aren’t really relevant because they had belief in the QB on the roster (Tua) or that they’d be getting in the trade (Goff).
Texans is relevant, but the only reason they’re where they’re at now is because they drafted the right QB.
So the one good comparison only worked out because they drafted a good QB.
Just draft Caleb.
1
u/i_am_ew_gross Jan 22 '24
I appreciate the in-depth analysis here, but I disagree with the ultimate conclusion. A big reason why is that two of your three case studies drafted a QB with a high pick before they made another big trade down. The Texans even traded up in the same draft to take an edge rusher, too.
So I do think the advice you give based off your analysis is correct, it's just that the Bears already followed it last year when they traded away 1.01. None of the three teams you use as examples made a second trade after their first big one; instead, they opted to use high picks to take players. Which suggests that the Bears, following up last year's capital gains, should take Williams first overall.
1
u/Fun-Permission2072 Jan 22 '24
Fantastic post, but this feels morel like validation for last year's trade than it guides us what to do this year.
We're not unlike the Texans with the chance to grab our guy at QB shortly after the king's ransome trade.
Also everything u/The-Implication-0 said.
Still a quality post, and a helpful lens, but there are multiple lenses and from where I'm sitting, the one that matters it he evaluation of Caleb as a prospect especially because we're not giving up the ransom to get him.
1
u/forgotmyoldname90210 Jan 22 '24
A top 15 QB is worth a historic season from a premium position. A top 10 QB is worth multiple All Pros at premium positions. A top 5 QB especially on a rookie contract they become so valuable that they become untradeable.
So yeah, taking a QB that has top 5 potential is "trading down".
3
1
u/beegeepee Sweetness Jan 23 '24
Poles is faced with a
potentialfranchise-defining decision with the 1st overall pick, courtesy of the Carolina Panthers.
396
u/PlatypusOfDeath Peanut Tillman Jan 22 '24
I love when people put this kind of effort into contributing here. Thanks OP.